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11 Overvalued Players (Fantasy Football)

Jul 16, 2020

Devin Singletary’s price is too high for a committee back who won’t see much goal-line work.

Avoiding the players who are at risk of being overvalued is just one of several ways to maximize your roster’s potential. Doing so requires preparation though. Having knowledge of the latest average draft position (ADP) values, viewing our tiered expert consensus rankings (ECR), and creating your own cheat sheet all serve to give you an edge over the competition. Together, they help you both recognize which players the experts seem to like less than the public and map out where you’d feel comfortable grabbing those athletes if they were to fall. To aid you further in your pursuit of building the best fantasy squad, our featured experts have each given their most overvalued running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends relative to their current ADP. Read on to see who you should consider avoiding on draft day if their price holds.

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Q1. Who is the most overvalued RB based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Devin Singletary (BUF): ADP – 47th Overall | RB22
“It’s tough to find guys who are extremely overvalued at the running back position, as we know who the workhorses are, while the rest will come down to injury. However, seeing Singletary at RB22 feels a bit too high. Throughout the entire 2019 season, he received just two carries inside the five-yard line and he now has better competition around him with Zack Moss. Based on where all of his targets/carries took place last year, Singletary had just the 33rd-most expected fantasy points. The upside isn’t there to take him as an RB2.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

“I like Devin Singletary — he just has no business having an ADP in the late-fourth round. When it became apparent that Frank Gore would not be returning to Buffalo, the excitement for Singletary as a potential workhorse back grew over the early offseason. Unfortunately for those dreaming he would break out, the Bills illustrated that they will continue to run a committee backfield (as Brian Dobell has always preferred) by investing a third-round pick on Zack Moss. Draft capital and history matter and it surprises me that Singletary’s ADP remains in the fourth round despite the strong evidence that he will once again be splitting carries. The fourth round is littered with potential WR1s and I will not be passing up the opportunity to roster one for a committee back, even a runner as talented as he is.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Leonard Fournette (JAC): ADP – 29th Overall | RB14
“One running back that I’ll be looking to avoid is Fournette. I think he’s one more missed meeting away from ‘healthy scratch’ territory and he wasn’t that impressive last year. He blew away his career-high reception total (76 in 2019; his previous high was 36 in 2017), but he only had four games over 76 rushing yards along with just three total touchdowns. I don’t trust the Jaguars to be able to run consistently if they’re playing from behind and I’m hesitant to buy into the receiving totals as the rule, not the exception. There are just enough question marks about Fournette to keep me away.”
– Donald Gibson (FantasyPros)

Kerryon Johnson (DET): ADP – 92nd Overall | RB34
“For me, it’s Johnson as the RB34. The Lions drafted D’Andre Swift early in the second round for a reason — to take over as the Lions’ lead back. He’s played a total of just 18 games in his first two seasons and was barely on pace to crack 200 carries. Give me James White, Tarik Cohen, and even Ke’Shawn Vaughn (all going around the same area as Johnson) over him.”
– Chris Kennedy (The Fantasy Headliners)

Derrius Guice (WAS): ADP – 78th Overall | RB27
“Anyone who listens to the FantasyPros Football Podcast already knows that my answer here is Guice. He’s currently the RB27 in ADP and it makes absolutely no sense. He’s proven that he can’t stay healthy, he has a ton of competition for touches in his backfield, he may not even be the starting running back, and this offense isn’t going to be a top-10 unit in 2020. All of this screams that Guice is being drafted above his ceiling and he’s going to burn a lot of fantasy teams yet again this season if his price tag stays there.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Q2. Who is the most overvalued WR based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Mike Evans (TB): ADP – 25th Overall | WR8
“Evans has always been one of those inconsistent receivers that could win you a fantasy week by himself, but the continued emergence of Chris Godwin combined with the arrivals of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are enough for me to look the other way. Evans was sixth in the league in yards per reception last season with 17.3 and Brady was 23rd in the league in yards per completion at 10.9. I know it may have been the system in New England, but I don’t trust Brady to throw deep consistently and I’m concerned that Gronk is going to completely dominate the end-zone targets, leaving Evans as an even higher-risk play than he has always been.”
– Donald Gibson (FantasyPros)

Mike Evans was maddeningly inconsistent last season. Despite finishing as a low-end WR1, he failed to reach double-digit PPR points in four of his 14 games and only posted between 10 and 13 points in another four. It appears as though Chris Godwin officially passed Evans as Tampa Bay’s primary passing-game target, finishing as fantasy’s No. 2 overall receiver. With Tom Brady taking over and bringing Rob Gronkowski, his long-time star tight end, with him, it appears that another up and down season is on tap for Evans and I am not willing to invest a pick at the two/three turn for someone I cannot count on every week.”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Amari Cooper (DAL): ADP – 26th Overall | WR9
“Now don’t get me wrong because I love Cooper in dynasty formats, but for 2020 his WR9 ADP is a bit too rich for my blood. Michael Gallup found his groove last year, they drafted CeeDee Lamb in the first round of this year’s draft, and I just don’t think Cooper will finish as a top-10 wide receiver with all of those mouths to feed. Another concern is he’s too ‘boom or bust’ for me, especially when you look at his home/away splits (home: 21 PPR points/game; road: 10 PPR points/game).”
– Chris Kennedy (The Fantasy Headliners)

Amari Cooper being drafted as a top-10 wide receiver is extremely confusing. Yes, he has the talent to finish in that range every single year, but there’s no way that he sees enough target volume to return that value. With the addition of CeeDee Lamb, plus the continued ascension of Michael Gallup, there simply aren’t enough targets to elevate Cooper to a top-10 finish. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will also be involved out of the backfield as receivers and Blake Jarwin should be heavily used as well. I won’t have Cooper on any of my teams this year if his price tag stays that high.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Courtland Sutton (DEN): ADP – 22nd Overall | WR16
“I love Sutton the player — he made a lot of incredible plays last year. However, even with those incredible plays, he finished as the 19th-best wide receiver in fantasy while seeing the 15th-most targets. This offseason, the Broncos have added a ton of firepower around him, including Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, and Albert Okwuegbunam. Targets will be harder to come by in 2020. Playing for Vic Fangio, this is still likely to be a somewhat run-first team, meaning that unless the efficiency goes way up, Sutton is not coming close to living up to his WR16 price tag.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Q3. Who is the most overvalued TE based on his current half-PPR ADP and why?

Evan Engram (NYG): ADP – 74th Overall | TE7
“Engram’s going as the TE7, and for a guy that has missed 13 games over the last two seasons, I don’t feel comfortable taking my TE1 in the sixth or seventh round when I can get Kareem Hunt or Terry McLaurin in the same range and focus on the tight end position in the double-digit rounds. Engram’s talent is unquestioned (top-12 tight end his rookie year), but I need to see him be able to stay on the field first.”
– Chris Kennedy (The Fantasy Headliners)

“The answer here is Evan Engram and it’s not even close. With his injury history and how crowded of a receiving corps he is playing in now, there’s absolutely no way that he sees the target volume necessary to finish as a top-seven option at the position. Engram would need multiple receivers to go down with an injury in order for him to finish in that range and that’s just not something that you should comfortably gamble on in fantasy drafts.”
– Kyle Yates (FantasyPros)

Hunter Henry (LAC): ADP – 66th Overall | TE6
“I will own zero shares of Henry if it requires a fifth- or sixth-round pick to get him. Tyrod Taylor is going to be the starter, and that’s clear knowing we have limited preseason action for the rookies to get experience. He has never thrown the ball more than 437 times in a season. Even if a player saw a 20-percent target share, that’s just 87 targets over the course of the season. Now factor in that Taylor has never thrown more than 20 touchdowns and it’s going to be tough to produce elite numbers with limited volume. Even if Justin Herbert takes over, the Chargers aren’t going to have him drop back a whole lot. Henry might struggle to finish in the top 10, let alone top six.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)

Mark Andrews (BAL): ADP – 35th Overall | TE3
“I’m struggling to get on board with Andrews as the TE3. I always prefer yardage over scoring, especially with tight ends, and his value tends to side with the scoring, with 10 touchdowns in 2019. He had a respectable four games with at least 93 yards last year, but he had 10 games with 53 yards or fewer. I’m not passionately avoiding Andrews, but I don’t think his return is going to be that different from someone you can get three or four rounds later. Plus, drafting Andrews would force you to pass on some very strong complementary running backs and wide receivers.”
– Donald Gibson (FantasyPros)

Noah Fant (DEN): ADP – 111th Overall | TE12
“Thanks to a pair of hundred-yard games in his rookie season and possessing one of the most impressive athletic profiles in the game, hopes of a second-year breakout has pushed Fant’s early ADP into the 10th round. While no one can deny his potential, I have a hard time picturing Fant seeing enough opportunity to return value on his price. Denver brought in Melvin Gordan and gave him a six million dollar signing bonus to lead a ground game in what is expected to be a run-heavy offense. When the Broncos do take to the air, Fant will be battling last season’s breakout wide receiver, Courtland Sutton, and talented rookies Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler for targets. With the double-digit rounds rich in talented tight ends with clearer paths to consistent targets, such as Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith, I will be avoiding Fant at his cost. ”
– Matthew Hill (DataForce Fantasy Football)

Thank you to the experts for giving us their overvalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for advice all year round.

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