8 Players to Sell in Dynasty Leagues (2020 Fantasy Football)
Last week, our writers provided 10 players they are trying to acquire now in dynasty fantasy football leagues. This week, we’re examining players that dynasty owners should shop in order to trade away as soon as possible.
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Q: Which dynasty league fantasy football players are you trying to trade away ASAP?
Devin Singletary (RB – BUF)
Singletary is currently valued at 36 points in Mike Tagliere’s excellent Dynasty Trade Value Chart. His valuation puts him just ahead of J.K. Dobbins, Cam Akers, Robert Woods, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Chark. Those 36 points slot him just ahead of a generic top-six rookie pick, so he’s valued at around 1.05 in the chart. I am selling at that price all day, every day.
Singletary exists in a committee backfield with no end in sight. While he could see most of the passing work, the Bills are likely to be a run-heavy team as long as the inaccuracy-prone Josh Allen is their quarterback. After adding Zack Moss on Day 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft, Singletary is unlikely to lead the backfield in rushing attempts or goal-line carries. He looks to be on the wrong side of a committee that will be frustrating, at best. In 2019, Singletary saw 12.6 carries per game and 3.5 targets, which would be fine numbers for an RB2 candidate, and he finished as RB28 (lower than expected thanks to only four touchdowns). In 2020, it’s hard to envision a world where Moss doesn’t eclipse the 11.1 carries and 1.1 targets per game allocated to Frank Gore last season, which means that Singletary could be throttled back slightly.
With Allen frequently calling his own number near the goal line, betting on a touchdown resurgence also seems like a fool’s bet for Singletary. In 2019, Gore led Singletary 11 to 1 in terms of goal-line carries. Allen, meanwhile, tallied nine touchdowns on the ground with 22 red-zone runs. To pay off in the long run over Dobbins, Akers, or another top-five rookie pick, Singletary would need to carve out either more touches or more touchdowns. Both seem like pipe dreams unless Moss gets hurt. I’ll take either rookie back, the rookie pick, or any of the wideouts in safe roles over Singletary in a heartbeat.
– Mark Leipold (@LeipoldNFL)
In year two with the Bills, Singletary’s value has skyrocketed. He’s being selected in the third and fourth rounds of most 12-team re-draft leagues. For that price, he needs to be a definite RB2 and have the ceiling of an RB1, and that he is not. Going at 3.08 in BestBall10s 12-team this month, Singletary is getting drafted before Mark Andrews, David Montgomery, D.K. Metcalf, and Mark Ingram. FantasyPros projects Singletary for 1,151 total yards and five total touchdowns. That’s if Zack Moss doesn’t succeed and take away too much from Singletary. Josh Allen alone took away 510 rushing yards last season and 631 in his rookie 2018 campaign. Singletary only found the end zone four times last season, and Allen out-produced him 22-20 in red-zone carries, per PlayerProfiler.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bills, who ran the ball 29.1 times per game (sixth), either dial it back or divvy up the carries more in 2020. The addition of Stefon Diggs entices the offense to open up a bit and stretch the field, but Allen’s 25% deep-ball completion and 17.1% completion under pressure rate makes that a problem. The Bills are looking to become a running back by committee with Allen included, mimicking the Baltimore Ravens to their best of their abilities. Singletary is one underwhelming season away from becoming a flex option next season, and I’d sell him now for the best return price possible before you’re stuck with him as an investable flex option.
– Vaughn Dalzell (@VaughnDalzell)
Aaron Jones (RB – GB)
Aaron Jones has gotten exponentially better each year in the NFL, finishing as the No. 2 fantasy RB in half-PPR leagues behind just Christian McCaffrey last season after totaling over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and scoring 19 TDs. He enters the fourth and final year of his rookie contract, hoping to perform well enough to secure a lucrative multi-year extension from the Packers or another team. The problem for Jones’ outlook in Green Bay, where he has proven his ability as a fantasy producer, is that the Packers took his eventual replacement in Boston College’s A.J. Dillon. The second-round draft capital used on Dillon suggests Green Bay views him as more than just a change-of-pace or complementary back. His 4,225 yards and 37 touchdowns on 813 carries in three years at Boston College suggest he’s capable of carrying the workload should the Packers move on from Jones.
Jones could very well find himself on another team come 2021, and there’s no guarantee he’ll be utilized in the same fashion he was during his time in Green Bay. His unknown landing spot and age (he turns 26 later this year) give me cause for concern in dynasty formats. So, while I’m a big fan of Jones in re-draft leagues during a contract year, I’d look to sell very high in dynasty leagues while his value is sky-high.
– Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler)
Chris Godwin (WR – TB)
I have managed my investments for a few years now, and while I’m typically a buy-and-hold guy, I can tell you it’s really hard to beat a moment where you realized you’ve just sold a stock at (or close to) its apex. Godwin might be there right now, or he may have already slid down the slope somewhat. He’s still viewed as an elite WR and has the talent to justify that status, but we may have seen lightning in a bottle last year. Tom Brady threw for nine fewer touchdowns and 1,052 fewer yards than Jameis Winston last year. I’m not predicting the catastrophic fall JuJu Smith-Schuster suffered last year, but a top-five receiver has almost nowhere to go but down. You should be able to recoup a great deal for Godwin, and you may even be able to re-acquire him in a couple of years for a much lower price.
– Sheldon Curtis (sheldon_curtis)
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
Henry led the NFL in rushing with 1,540 yards behind a terrific offensive line but logged a career-high 383 carries (including the playoffs) in 2019. Despite the fantastic campaign, Henry is not utilized as a receiver in the backfield and finished seventh in PPR scoring formats. If your dynasty team is in rebuilding mode, your best bet is to move Henry for key pieces. The Titans locked up QB Ryan Tannehill and even though they signed Henry to a long-term deal as well, it wouldn’t be unheard of for the 26-year-old to once again log 300-plus carries and add more wear-and-tear on his body. Who knows how Henry might perform after the 2020 season, or even during the upcoming campaign. I will stress that I would only move on from Henry if rebuilding, as his fantasy value is at an all-time high. Henry could have a few elite seasons in him despite his bruising running style, especially now that he’s staying in Tennessee, but he is worth dealing in dynasty leagues for the right price.
– Brad Camara (@beerad30)
Keenan Allen (WR – LAC)
In order to be worth selling, an asset must be valuable enough to return something of significance. Many running backs are on expiring clocks. This is common knowledge, as the position’s turnover is higher than most. Unfortunately, rival fantasy managers are privy to this not-so-well-kept secret, creating diminishing returns in the way of trade offers. Wide receivers, on the other hand, generally retain their value for longer stretches of time. This is why Keenan Allen is currently a sparkling trade candidate.
In the midst of his prime at 28 years old, Allen has finished as the WR8, WR12, and WR3 in the last three seasons. Unfortunately, he also happens to be in the middle of a monumental quarterback change. With the departure of known-commodity Philip Rivers, Allen will play with a different quarterback for the first time in his career. Concerningly, we do not even know who that quarterback will be this season. Veteran Tyrod Taylor will compete with sixth overall pick Justin Herbert. Regardless of who emerges victorious, the Chargers’ passing volume is likely to significantly decrease. Taylor employs a drastically different style and skillset than the gunslinging Rivers, and even more concerningly, rookie quarterbacks historically do not support elite fantasy production for wide receivers. Since 2004, 38 rookie quarterbacks have started at least 10 games, with only five producing a top-12 fantasy receiver. This is a staggeringly low 13.2% rate.
No matter how you slice it, Allen’s 2020 season is unlikely to mirror the ones prior. Luckily, Allen’s age, name value, and position should enable managers to sell him at an elevated price in advance of a potential roller-coaster season. Should this season go off the rails, Allen’s value may not be restored until he’s close to his 30th birthday, providing increased incentive to strike while the iron is hot. With so much uncertainty at quarterback, Allen’s best bet to contribute toward dynasty squads this season may be through what he can fetch, rather than what he can catch.
– Mark McWhirter (@mmcw19)
Melvin Gordon (RB – DEN)
If you’re a dynasty player and your RB1 is Denver Broncos running back Melvin Gordon, stop reading this article and immediately click the little “Done” in the top left corner of your iPhone. After doing so, enter your preferred fantasy football app and click on the first contender in your league that catches your eye to trade Gordon. Because if you’re stuck with Gordon as your RB1, you have zero chance of legitimate contention in 2020.
The ultimate key to success in dynasty is the ability to look yourself in the mirror and have an honest conversation about the roster you’ve assembled. After trailblazing the Delusional Running Back Holdout path for Dalvin Cook in 2020, Gordon finds himself as the second-best running back in Denver this season. Just like 2015 Danny Woodhead and 2019 Austin Ekeler that came before him in San Diego/Los Angeles, Phillip Lindsay is next in line to leave Gordon in the dust in his own backfield. Gordon has forever been a volume, goal-line-work dependent hog stuck in the mud. Looking at his career numbers below (excluding an outlier 2018 season in which he averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 114.6 total yards per game), you cannot look me in the eyes and tell me that the former Wisconsin Badgers’ running back is an elite NFL player.
Just one season under your belt with an average more than a pathetic 3.9 yards per carry? And you expect to be compensated like a top back in the league? Get real. If we’re being honest, I’m shocked Gordon’s agent didn’t give him the same treatment that Kristin Campbell just gave her former client, Devonta Freeman. Lindsay at RB32 is an incredible bargain; it shouldn’t take long for him to be the third running back in six years to run circles around the former Big Ten bruiser. If you’re stuck with Gordon as your RB1, do yourself a favor and fetch a late first-round pick from a contender, if you can get it.
– Rob Searles (@RobBob17)
Leonard Fournette (RB – JAC)
Leonard Fournette saw 100 targets in the passing game last year. He totaled 76 receptions. He received 20+ carries in five different games. He finished seventh in PPR points per game among running backs. He scored just three touchdowns, which makes Fournette a prime candidate for positive TD regression. Unfortunately, it’s wildly unlikely he ever sees such promising usage again. Most of his 2019 receptions weren’t designed routes out of the backfield, but instead dump-offs created by a dysfunctional offense. The Jaguars don’t project to be much better this year, which limits his opportunities. The organization declined his fifth-year option and has been reportedly trying to trade him all offseason. Furthermore, new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden plans to utilize Chris Thompson as the team’s third-down back, completely killing Fournette’s volume in the passing game. Volume was the one thing Fournette’s managers could hang their hats on last year. With that now in question, it seems as if almost everything else is working against the 25-year-old and former No. 4 overall draft pick.
– Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma)
Derrius Guice (RB – WAS)
Guice has a number of things working against him as he enters his third season in Washington. The first problem is his inability to stay healthy. He missed his 2018 rookie season with a torn ACL. Last year he played in the opener, sat out until Week 10 with a torn meniscus, played four games, and then was put on IR with an MCL injury. The second problem is that the people who drafted him in the second round are no longer there, and Washington’s new coaching staff is high on rookie Antonio Gibson. Head coach Ron Rivera compared Gibson’s skillset to Christian McCaffrey. Even before they drafted Gibson, Rivera talked about Adrian Peterson, Bryce Love, and Guice all having a role in 2020. Now Gibson joins that mix, and it is clear they have big plans for him.
Guice is still being valued as the 78th ranked player and 30th ranked running back in the 2020 half-PPR rankings, and that is too high. The committee has too many members, and Guice has too many injury issues to hold onto for the long term. At least the 324 yards and three touchdowns on just 49 touches last year are keeping his value up entering the preseason. Given the injury history and Gibson’s arrival, dynasty managers should sell Guice at this point. His fantasy value could be nonexistent by the end of the season, as I’m not sure he will receive a second chance as a featured back for another team due to the injury history.
– Derek Lofland (@DerekLofland)
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