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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 5 (2020)

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 5 (2020)

Between the recent spate of COVID-19 cases wreaking havoc on the NFL schedule and the unusually large number of injuries we’re seeing this season, it’s fair to say that it has never been more challenging to set a fantasy football lineup.

With Nick Chubb and Austin Ekeler joining Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley on the shelf, four of the top 12 running backs off the board in drafts have suffered significant injuries through the first four weeks. A fifth, Derrick Henry, has already had one game postponed and is at risk of missing more as the Titans’ COVID outbreak continues to rage out of control.

The situation is arguably even worse at wide receiver, where five of the top eight WRs drafted (Michael Thomas, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay) have missed at least one game due to injury, while two others (DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans) have played at well less than 100 percent. Thank your lucky stars if you used that early pick on Tyreek Hill!

The saving grace for many fantasy managers has been massive performances from QBs that didn’t require an early-round draft pick. You may well have been able to survive the storm at RB and WR quite nicely if you spent a 4th-to-7th-round pick on Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, or Josh Allen. Kyler Murray and Aaron Rodgers have been solid values, too.

The absence of big-name fantasy studs certainly hasn’t impacted every team in your league equally, but it’s probably affected most of them in some shape or form. As always, our best course of action is to simply embrace the chaos and look at these difficult lineup decisions as part of the strategy that makes fantasy football fun. If you’ve played this game for any length of time, you know to always expect the unexpected.

Week 4 was a very solid one for my rankings overall — I finished 33rd out of 170 fantasy writers in accuracy — but it was a pretty awful one for the picks I included in this column. My only real “win” was anticipating that Tyler Higbee would disappoint. Hooray?

One obvious thing that threw things out of whack was that two of the players I discussed didn’t even play: Cam Newton (who I listed as overvalued) because of Covid-19, and Zack Moss (who I called undervalued) because of a lingering toe injury. Moss’s absence also completely undercut my argument that his backfield mate Devin Singletary was overvalued, and sure enough, Singletary played nearly every snap and ended up meeting the industry’s expectations as the RB14 for the week.

I also got a bad beat on Allen Robinson, who was on his way to flopping until he put up 69 yards and a score on the final drive of what amounted to garbage time. But I can’t blame all of my misses on misfortune. Rob Gronkowski simply let me down, as did Greg Ward despite promising usage. And I am officially swearing off Jared Goff after he burned me for a second time already this season. The Rams’ conservative, run-heavy approach is going to make Goff impossible to trust as a QB1 even in plus matchups.

As you probably know by now, my Week 5 picks for overvalued and undervalued players are based on FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. I’m always available to answer questions about lineup decisions, trades, waiver priorities, etc. on Twitter @andrew_seifter. And don’t forget to check out my new fantasy sports show, MFSN’s The Hub, on YouTube. Tune in this Saturday to watch me tell special guest Kevin Nealon whether his opinions about Captain Marvel and Doctor Manhattan are valid!

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Quarterback

Overvalued: Gardner Minshew (JAC)
ECR: QB9
My Rank: QB18

Minshew enters Week 5 as the QB16 in fantasy points per game, and this week he travels to Houston to face one of the league’s biggest run funnel defenses. Through four weeks, the Texans have given up a league-leading 181.8 yards per game on the ground, versus just 211.5 yards per game through the air, the fifth-fewest in the league. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Ben Roethlisberger have all thrown for less than 240 yards against the Texans, so it’s not like their caliber of opponent has been poor. Perhaps game flow will force Minshew to pass more than Houston’s past opponents, but I have trouble seeing an 0-4 Texans squad jumping out to a huge lead, even if they are currently favored by 6.5 points. The obvious move is for Jacksonville to hand the ball off to fantasy darling James “RB1son” Robinson early and often, and if that’s successful (it should be), it could be a relatively low-volume passing day for Minshew.

Undervalued: Justin Herbert (LAC)
ECR: QB18
My Rank: QB11

Now that Herbert has been named the Chargers’ starting QB going forward, it’s time to take him seriously as a legitimate QB1 option in fantasy leagues, particularly in plus matchups. That starts this week with a trip to New Orleans to face a Saints defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs — including three touchdowns to all four QBs they’ve played against. The Saints were missing their top two corners, Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, last week in Detroit, but whether they play this week or not, this is a defense that was getting torched even with Lattimore and Jenkins around. Herbert, meanwhile, has thrown for at least 290 yards in all three of his appearances and is gaining confidence by the minute. Herbert’s play has already drawn praise from offensive masterminds Bruce Arians and Sean Payton, and now Payton’s Saints have the unenviable task of trying to do what Arians’ Bucs couldn’t: slow Herbert down.

Running Back

Overvalued: Jonathan Taylor (IND)
ECR: RB9
My Rank: RB16

After Marlon Mack suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1, I believed that Taylor had top-five RB upside just like everyone else did. He appeared to be on his way to delivering on that promise in Week 2 when he handled the ball a whopping 28 times and went over 100 yards with a score. In the two weeks that followed, though, Taylor ceded quite a bit of the workload to not only pass-catching specialist Nyheim Hines, but also to between-the-tackles grinder Jordan Wilkins. The Colts’ plan coming into the season was to have a three-back committee, and it appears that they still have one even without Mack — at least for now. This week, Taylor will be facing an above-average run defense for the first time all year. The Browns currently rank fifth-best against the rush after holding the likes of Joe Mixon and Ezekiel Elliot in check.

Undervalued: Justin Jackson (LAC)
ECR: RB38
My Rank: RB33

Let’s stick with the Justin/Chargers theme for my undervalued picks, shall we? Jackson was a popular waiver wire pickup this week after Austin Ekeler was lost for 4-6 weeks with a hamstring injury. I’m guessing that most people that added Jackson didn’t do so with the intention of starting him, but you could do worse for an RB3/flex option if you’re in a pinch. The Chargers proved last season that their offensive system could produce two fantasy-relevant running backs (Ekeler and Melvin Gordon), and that pattern has continued this year with Ekeler and rookie Joshua Kelley.

I do still prefer Kelley to Jackson, but I’m thinking about using both of them in one league with multiple flex spots. Kelley is off to a solid start to his NFL career, but his two lost fumbles create some risk that he could lose touches if the problem continues. Even if Kelley is the lead back, Jackson is the logical choice to pick up the slack in the passing game in Ekeler’s absence. It’s a role that has produced plenty of fantasy value in the past.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: Robert Woods (LAR)
ECR: WR14
My Rank: WR24

Remember what I said up top about the Rams’ run-heavy offense scaring me away from Jared Goff? Well, I’ve got the same concerns about Woods. Woods has never been a big touchdown guy (career-high: 6 TDs), but he’s made up for it with volume — until this year. He’s yet to see more than eight targets in a game in 2020 after getting 9+ looks in 10 of 15 games last season. This week, he faces a Washington Football Team defense that has allowed just 208.5 passing yards per game (fourth-best) and only one touchdown to a wide receiver. With the Rams likely to be playing with a second-half lead, I’m skeptical that this is the week where Woods sees double-digit targets.

Undervalued: Darius Slayton (NYG)
ECR: WR26
My Rank: WR18

Coming off an impressive rookie season where he put up low-end WR2 numbers over the second half of the season, Slayton has mostly kept it up to begin 2020, currently ranking as the WR25. But things could be about to get a whole lot better than that. Over his first four games, Slayton faced four top-12 pass defenses (Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco, and the Rams), but this week he matches up with a woeful Cowboys secondary that has given up the second-most fantasy points to wideouts. He currently ranks 15th in the league in air yards and his 20.5 percent target share is more than respectable, so the usage is already there for a big breakout. Slayton put up three two-touchdown games last season, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did it again this week.

Tight End

Overvalued: Tyler Higbee (LAR)
ECR: TE8
My Rank: TE13

Higbee’s slow Week 4 was my one “win” in last week’s column, so I’m doubling down this week. In fact, he may appear in this space every week until the market adjusts to his troubling usage (or lack thereof). As I mentioned last week, Higbee is not running enough pass routes or getting enough targets to be a reliable fantasy starter right now, even at a position that falls off a cliff after the top handful of elite performers. I understand the desire to hang onto him in the hope that his usage changes because the talent to put up huge numbers is certainly there. But as long as the opportunity is sorely lacking, I’d rather take my chances with Evan Engram, Eric Ebron, or any other EE name that will get me double points in Scattergories.

Undervalued: Eric Ebron (PIT)
ECR: TE15
My Rank: TE10

I like Engram and Ebron a lot more than consensus, but at just 42 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues, Ebron is the one who is widely available to pick up and stream this week. Ebron failed to meet my expectations when I touted him here in Week 1, but I haven’t lost faith. The Steelers’ plan in the preseason was reportedly to flex him out wide and pepper him with targets, and while that hasn’t fully come to fruition yet, his catches, targets, and yardage have each steadily increased every week, culminating in five catches for 52 yards and a TD in his last game. Ebron demonstrated his red-zone acumen in 2018 when he hauled in 13 touchdowns. This week he faces off with an Eagles defense that has already given up five touchdowns to tight ends (including three to Higbee!) and was completely shredded by George Kittle last week.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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