I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: When it comes to setting your fantasy football lineup, the decision rests with you and you only. There is no point in blindly following the rankings of any one analyst, even those who consistently rank among the most accurate. If you do, it’s like they’re managing your team, not you!
Still, there is plenty of utility in consulting the views of analysts who have a history of getting it right, not to mention the “wisdom of the crowd” found in FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings. We all need a second opinion sometimes (even Christian McCaffrey).
The way I like to use other peoples’ viewpoints is as a reality check on my own. Am I way higher or lower on a certain player than everybody else is? If so, maybe I’m not accounting for something. That’s when I want to do that additional research to uncover the rationales behind the rankings and see if they pass the smell test for me.
Conversely, maybe I am accounting for something that everyone else is missing. You don’t have to be a fantasy writer to come up with a piece of intel or data that is flying under the radar, so this could apply to you, too. In fact, if you’re not a fantasy writer, you have the added advantage of not having to share your intel with the world!
Around here, we like to share, but the undervalued and overvalued picks I shared last week were a bit of a mixed bag. The hot streak had to end at some point, right?
My notable misses were Matt Ryan, who did just about what the expert consensus expected, and Trey Burton, who didn’t get to run the “Treycat.” I also ended up being too high on Jordan Wilkins and Antonio Brown, although both players at least had the kind of heavy usage I was anticipating. On the plus side of the ledger, my point that Cam Newton can “win ugly” for fantasy managers was verified once again, as he rode two touchdown rushes to a top-eight fantasy finish. I was also right to fade La’Mical Perine and Noah Fant, although the rationales I provided may no longer apply going forward now that the Jets are promising to feature Perine and the Broncos lost Albert Okwuegbunam to a season-ending injury.
As a friendly reminder, my Week 10 picks come against FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. If you’d like to keep the conversation going, reach out to me on Twitter @andrew_seifter. Also, make sure to check out MFSN’s The Hub on YouTube, where I give my top waiver wire adds every Tuesday and talk deep-dive strategy and predict breakout performances every Saturday.
View your league’s top available players with My Playbook 
Quarterback
Overvalued: Josh Allen (BUF)
ECR: QB2
My Rank: QB6
Don’t get me wrong. If you’ve got Allen on your roster, you’re almost certainly going to be playing him in a game with the highest projected scoreline on the Week 10 slate. But if you somehow happen to have two high-end QBs — or are assessing QBs for DFS purposes — Allen should at least give you pause.
Yes, Allen looked excellent last week, but the Seahawks have been a get-right matchup for every quarterback they’ve faced this season. We shouldn’t overrate one good week, and it’s hard for me to ignore Allen’s shaky form over the previous four contests, when he finished as the QB15, QB17, QB19, and QB21. This week, Allen will travel across the country to face a decent Cardinals pass defense that has allowed only one 300-yard passing day all season (to Russell Wilson in Week 7). The game may well turn into the back-and-forth shootout that Vegas is projecting, in which case Allen has an excellent chance to put up big fantasy numbers. But I can’t completely dismiss the possibility that he posts another dud. That’s why I’m ranking him behind more surefire options like Aaron Rodgers, Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and even Justin Herbert, who has yet to have a single poor performance.
Undervalued: Cam Newton (NE)
ECR: QB19
My Rank: QB14
My Newton call worked out last week so I am doubling down. I certainly get the desire to downgrade Newton based on the matchup with the Ravens — New England’s implied point total of 18.5 points is currently tied for the lowest of Week 10 — but Newton is just about matchup-proof when you consider how central he is to the Patriots’ offense. New England has only scored 16 touchdowns this season, but Newton has been involved in 10 of them (eight rushing, two passing), and his share would be even higher if he hadn’t missed one game. As a result, he’s finished as a top-11 fantasy QB in five of the seven games he’s played.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have only allowed 10 passing touchdowns, but they have also given up three rushing scores to quarterbacks. Even if the Patriots only reach the end zone twice against Baltimore, the odds are high that Newton will be involved in both scores and that at least one of them will be on the ground. It may not be pretty, but that would almost certainly be enough to ensure that Newton finishes as an above-average fantasy QB once again.
Running Back
Overvalued: D’Andre Swift (DET)
ECR: RB14
My Rank: RB20
It’s easy to look at Swift’s 16 touches in Week 9 and assume he is finally taking control of this backfield, but the snap count tells a very different story. After playing 62 percent of the snaps in Week 8, Swift played just 40 percent of the snaps last week, a figure on par with his totals from Weeks 1-7. While Adrian Peterson‘s snaps have been trending downward, last week those extra snaps went to Kerryon Johnson, not to Swift. Make no mistake, this is still a three-back committee, and not a particularly potent one given the overall sluggishness of the offense. Swift’s matchup with Washington isn’t bad, but short of more evidence of a role change, I’m not quite ready to anoint him a high-end RB2.
Undervalued: Matt Breida (MIA)
ECR: RB78
My Rank: RB31
Breida is trending towards a return to the field after missing last week’s game with a hamstring injury, and if he does make it back, he’ll be the favorite to lead the backfield in touches on Sunday. Breida has served as the clear number two back in Miami behind injured starter Myles Gaskin — he’s played the most snaps of Miami’s other running backs and is listed atop the depth chart while Gaskin is on I.R. Breida probably won’t command as large a share of the backfield touches as Gaskin did, but he should see enough work to do some damage against a Chargers defense that is giving up 136 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks. Even 10-15 touches would be enough to make Breida a viable RB3/flex option.
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Justin Jefferson (MIN)
ECR: WR19
My Rank: WR28
I am well below consensus on both Jefferson and Adam Thielen, so suffice it to say this has more to do with team context than talent. Kirk Cousins has attempted just 34 passes in the two games since the Vikings returned from their bye, compared to 68 running plays. It’s resulted in back-to-back victories after Minnesota began the season 1-5. With Dalvin Cook devouring souls, there is little reason to think “old-school coach” Mike Zimmer is about to mess with what’s been working, which is bad news for the fantasy prospects of the team’s pass-catchers.
Jefferson wasn’t seeing a lot of target volume to begin with — he’s had more than five targets in just two games all year — and that is not going to change as the team takes its run-heavy approach into overdrive. Thielen can at least hang his hat on a heavy dose of red zone targets, but the rookie doesn’t even have that going for him. Nor does it help that he’ll be going up against the Bears, one of the most stingy pass defenses in the league.
Undervalued: Travis Fulgham (PHI)
ECR: WR25
My Rank: WR15
Fulgham has been one of the biggest breakout fantasy stars of the 2020 season, and it’s time his ECR ranking reflected it. Since he first got on the field in Week 4, Fulgham’s worst fantasy performance has been five catches for 73 yards. He’s scored in four of five weeks, is averaging over 10 targets over his last four games, and is currently the WR4 overall in fantasy points per game.
If I had to guess, I’d bet that many people are ranking Fulgham outside the top-24 WRs for three main reasons: 1) he came out of nowhere, 2) there are a lot of moving parts in Philly, and 3) he may face shadow coverage from James Bradberry. On the first point, Fulgham is hardly the first player to emerge from relative obscurity, and he won’t be the last. Fantasy value changes every week in the NFL, and fantasy managers need to adjust their expectations for players like Fulgham and James Robinson based on what they’re showing on the field, much like they did for guys like Adam Thielen and Chris Carson before them. Meanwhile, while we should fully expect Dallas Goedert and Jalen Reagor to increasingly step up (Alshon Jeffery, not so much), Fulgham has shown more than enough to remain Carson Wentz‘s number one target. As far as Bradberry goes, he is not going to be following Fulgham on every route, and may not even shadow him at all.
Tight End
Overvalued: Robert Tonyan (GB)
ECR: TE13
My Rank: TE15
Given the sorry state of affairs that is the tight end position in 2020, you can be forgiven for wanting to play Tonyan just because he seems to be buddies with Aaron Rodgers. But Tonyan had endured a dry spell ever since he exploded on the scene with three touchdowns against the Falcons on Monday Night Football. In the four games since then, Tonyan has surpassed four targets and 32 yards just once, and he has not hit paydirt once. No other receiving option really stepped up in Tonyan’s place, but Rodgers just decided to target Davante Adams more than ever. Now, the Packers’ number two receiver, Allen Lazard, looks likely to return to the field, leaving even fewer opportunities for Tonyan. Given the favorable matchup with Jacksonville, it’s possible Tonyan re-emerges, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling briefly did last week. But I wouldn’t count on it.
Undervalued: Austin Hooper (CLE)
ECR: TE10
My Rank: TE7
Hooper is less widely rostered than Tonyan, but I feel he’s the preferred play for Week 10. Prior to missing two games due to an appendectomy, Hooper was trending upward in the Browns’ offense, hauling in five catches in three straight games and topping 50 yards in two in a row. Then, while Hooper was out of the lineup, Odell Beckham Jr. was lost for the season. With just Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and rookie Donovan Peoples-Jones left at wide receiver, it would only make sense that Baker Mayfield would lean on Hooper more over the rest of the season. We saw what Hooper could do with that kind of opportunity in Atlanta last season when his 787 receiving yards ranked sixth-best among tight ends. He gets an appealing matchup with a soft Texans D right out of the gate, so get him into your lineup.
Import your team to My Playbook for instant Lineup & Trade advice
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
