One of the hot topics (pardon the pun) heading into Week 8 was how to account for bad weather moving across the country last weekend. Given how concerned fantasy managers were about weather conditions leading into the games, I think it’s worth taking a quick look back at what actually transpired.

Of the 10 quarterbacks who were playing in high wind games, six of them (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, Cam Newton, Ryan Tannehill, and Nick Foles) finished as top-15 fantasy QBs for the week. A seventh, Kirk Cousins, was likely to underwhelm, even if not for the weather. The only QBs who clearly underperformed were the Bills’ Josh Allen, who game-managed his way to a QB21 finish, and both QBs in the Browns-Raiders game, which ended up being much lower scoring than initially expected.

Derek Carr, in particular, was a player I liked more than the consensus heading into the week, but I must confess that I dropped him out of QB1 territory just prior to kickoff out of concern for the conditions. It ended up being a wise move, but it wouldn’t have worked out if I had similarly downgraded most of the other QBs who played in poor conditions.

Overall, most of the teams playing in windy conditions did lean on the running game more than they usually do, but the difference was only dramatic for the Bills and, to a lesser extent, the Packers, Raiders, and Titans. The Browns, Patriots, and Vikings were three of the most run-heavy teams to begin with, while the Saints didn’t appear to alter their run-pass mix at all and the Bengals and Bears actually threw the ball a little more than usual.

So what can we learn from all of this? Well, we shouldn’t take too much from such a small sample size of games, but a much larger study by 4for4 similarly found that “the majority of quarterbacks are unaffected” by high winds. The way I see it, high winds aren’t going to help a player put up big numbers, but they aren’t necessarily going to prevent it, either. In that sense, I generally treat windy conditions similarly to a player playing at less than 100 percent or missing a key teammate. It’s something that is worth factoring in as a tiebreaker between comparable fantasy options, but not as important — or as predictive — as a player’s usage and matchup.

Wind or no wind, last week was another very good one for my overvalued/undervalued picks — and for my overall rankings, vaulting me up to 16th in accuracy for the year. If you exclude Carr, who I actually ended up lower on than the expert consensus, my only overvalued/undervalued miss was Irv Smith, who flopped despite very promising usage (I’m still a believer in him ROS). If you listened to me and flexed Zack Moss or Jalen Reagor, you’re probably smiling right now — and if I convinced you to bench Ronald Jones, you’re probably breathing a sigh of relief! Kirk Cousins, DeVante Parker, and Hunter Henry were other players I correctly faded.

As is true each and every week, my Week 9 picks come against FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings for 0.5 PPR formats. I’m available for questions, comments, and anything else you can think of on Twitter @andrew_seifter. My office hours are 24/7 (except maybe when I’m sleeping). You can also catch me on MFSN’s The Hub on YouTube, where we help you break down the waiver wire on Tuesdays and discuss big picture strategies and weekly player picks on Saturdays.

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Quarterback

Overvalued: Matt Ryan (ATL)
ECR: QB11
My Rank: QB16

I made the case on this week’s edition of MFSN’s waiver wire show that I would be ok with dropping Ryan in single-QB formats, despite his 91 percent ownership rate in Yahoo leagues. The reason: consistency (or lack thereof). Ryan has put together a few big weeks, but he’s finished among the top-11 QBs in just three of eight games — and just once since Week 2. Overall, he’s the QB17 on the year. This week, he gets an at best middle-of-the-road matchup with a Broncos defensive unit that has allowed just one 300-yard passer this season and a total of four touchdown passes over the last four games. Worse, he may need to do it without Calvin Ridley, who is questionable to play through a mid-foot sprain. The Falcons are on bye next week, so if you’re not going to start Ryan this week, it may not be worth holding onto him.

Undervalued: Cam Newton (NE)
ECR: QB13
My Rank: QB10

Newton’s play has looked mighty ugly at times this season, but fantasy results are fantasy results, and his rushing value — particularly at the goal line — has kept him in top-12 territory more often than not. These are his weekly finishes among QBs in his six starts: QB6, QB2, QB28, QB11, QB36, QB11. This week, Newton gets a matchup with the Jets, who have allowed Josh Allen to rush for at least 57 yards in both of his starts against them. Expect New England to follow a similar recipe, particularly considering they’ll be going into battle with a receiver corps that is short on talent and experience.

Running Back

Overvalued: La’Mical Perine (NYJ)
ECR: RB34
My Rank: RB42

There is so little value to be found on the Jets that it is difficult to say any of their players are massively overvalued, but consider this a recommendation to look elsewhere to fill your RB3/flex spot. Following a Week 7 game in which he played 70 percent of the snaps, logic would dictate that the Jets would increasingly turn to Perine, a fourth round rookie out of Florida, as their lead back over the second half of another lost season. But it is dangerous to assume this moribund franchise will ever do anything logical. Instead, Perine’s snap count dropped below 50 percent in Week 8, while Adam Gase elected to have Frank Gore lead the team in carries — and even gave third-string Lions castoff Ty Johnson some run. You don’t have to try hard to find reasons to avoid Jets in your fantasy lineup, and a timeshare back in this offense isn’t going to cut it.

Undervalued: Jordan Wilkins (IND)
ECR: RB38
My Rank: RB27

This week is going to be very telling in terms of the Colts’ backfield going forward. The fantasy community seems to be widely assuming that Wilkins’ big Week 8 performance was just a blip on the radar and that Jonathan Taylor is still the man. Maybe so. But there is no sugar-coating the fact that Wilkins has been far better than Taylor to date, both in terms of missed tackle rate and yards after contact. Reports out of Indy this week seem to suggest that Taylor is still considered the “starter,” but that Wilkins is likely to see an uptick in usage — and that the team could continue to go with a hot-hand approach. The matchup with Baltimore is hardly ideal, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Joe Mixon, Miles Sanders, and James Conner have each finished as top-24 RBs against the Ravens over the last five weeks, and if Wilkins is granted the opportunity, he could do the same. That’s a lot of upside for an RB who is barely being ranked inside the consensus top-40.

Wide Receiver

Overvalued: JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT)
ECR: WR20
My Rank: WR28

The Steelers’ wide receiver room has been a season-long headache for fantasy managers, but it looks like the team’s top three WRs are all being treated as must-start options for this week’s matchup with the Cowboys. I’m on board with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool as WR2s vs. Dallas, but I just can’t with JuJu. After averaging just 4.6 catches through his first five games, Smith-Schuster has 16 catches over the last two weeks. That sounds good, but it’s only translated to WR34 value, and the reason is simple: average depth of target (aDOT). Smith-Schuster’s aDOT is a measly 5.62 yards, the lowest of any wideout who has been targeted 40+ times this season. That severely caps his upside, even in a mouth-watering matchup.

Undervalued: Antonio Brown (TB)
ECR: WR32
My Rank: WR27

Now, this is a surprise. I’m not typically a “hot take” kind of guy and honestly didn’t expect to be well above consensus on a player like AB. But here are the facts. Chris Godwin is still recovering from a broken finger and has yet to attempt to catch a pass in practice this week. He may not play and may be used as a decoy if active. Even if we learn by game time that Godwin is fine, Tom Brady has not shown much inclination to pepper Mike Evans with targets, and he may feel differently about Brown, who Brady recruited to the Bucs and currently lives in Brady’s house.

While Bruce Arians seemed to suggest that AB won’t play a full complement of snaps, we simply can’t trust Arians on such matters, and besides, Brown doesn’t need a lot of touches to do a lot of damage. The Saints give up more touchdowns through the air than any team in the league, and it’s easy to imagine Arians and Brady wanting to get Brown a TD in his first game for Tampa Bay. I realize this is more of a “narrative street” case than I typically make, but if you don’t have to sit an every-week WR2 to get AB into your fantasy lineup, I think the potential reward well outweighs the risk.

Tight End

Overvalued: Noah Fant (DEN)
ECR: TE6
My Rank: TE12

Given the state of the tight end position, you may not have a better option than Fant this week. But even if you play him, I’d try to keep my expectations in check.

Fant caught a season-high seven passes last week and has 16 targets over the last two games. That’s the good news. The bad news is that he hasn’t topped 50 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 2, and now faces increased competition from fourth round rookie Albert Okwuegbunam. Fant is still playing many more snaps than Okwuegbunam, but Albert O. has emerged as the Broncos’ preferred option in the red zone. While Fant saw a team-leading six red zone targets through Denver’s first four games, he has none since then, while Albert O. has five. The sudden lack of touchdown potential significantly caps Fant’s fantasy upside, which is why I can’t rank him as a high-end TE1 even in a wonderful matchup with Atlanta.

Undervalued: Trey Burton (IND)
ECR: TE17
My Rank: TE14

As I mentioned above, tight end gets ugly in a hurry outside of the top-12. But if you’re scrambling for a streamer or George Kittle replacement, give Burton a look. The Colts continue to deploy a three-headed tight end rotation featuring Burton, Mo Alie-Cox, and Jack Doyle, preventing any of them from emerging as a reliable top-10 option at the position. But Burton still has more targets per game than any Colt other than T.Y. Hilton, and his target share could continue to grow with Hilton looking likely to miss this week’s game with a groin injury. What makes Burton even more appealing for fantasy purposes, though, is that he’s scored a touchdown in back-to-back games out of the wildcat formation, now forever to be known as the “Treycat.”

When it comes to low-end TE1 options, you’re really just hoping for a decent yardage floor and a touchdown. Burton’s opponent this week is the Ravens, who gave up 48 yards and a TD to Eric Ebron last week. Given his current usage, Burton is a decent bet to match Ebron’s stat line. Plus, using Burton gives you an excuse to name your team “Treycat” for the week!

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.