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NFL Divisional Round Picks: Against the Spread & Over/Under (2021 Playoffs)

Jan 15, 2021

Baker Mayfield and the Browns haven’t lost by more than 10 points in their last 10 games

Four exceptional matchups will take place this weekend, but this divisional playoff is slightly different from the others. Remember, only one team from each conference is fresh off a bye this time around instead of the usual two. Will that make it a little harder for the Bills and Saints to cover the spread? We’ve got our most accurate betting experts with us once again to break down which picks you should be targeting ahead of this weekend’s games.

View picks from the entire consensus for each Divisional Round playoff game:
LAR @ GB (-6.5)BAL @ BUF (-2.5)CLE @ KC (-10)TB @ NO (-3)

Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread and why?

“While it’s tough to imagine the Chiefs losing on Divisional Weekend coming off the bye, I’m on the Browns (+10) to carry their momentum into Arrowhead and cover on Sunday. The Chiefs have struggled mightily to pull away from teams of late, going 1-7 against the spread since Week 9 – with their lone win against the spread being a three-point victory against the Saints to cover -2.5 in Week 15. Since Odell Beckham Jr. went down in Week 7, the Browns have kept all of their games close, going 7-3 over that span and never losing by more than 10 points.”
– Dan Larocca (Locked In Football)

Tampa Bay (+3) is my favorite Divisional Round selection this weekend. The Bucs have been perhaps the hottest team in football for the last month or so, while the Saints have struggled in the passing game since Drew Brees returned from injury. Division underdogs in the playoffs are 6-1-1 since 2014, including two outright wins last week in the Browns and Rams.”
– Anthony Amico (In the Aggregate)

“The only team in the AFC that might be playing better football than the Bills over the last month is their opponent this week — the Ravens (+2.5). Buffalo is on a nice win streak of their own, but they were a Josh Allen fourth quarter near-fumble away from potentially losing to the Colts last week. Baltimore’s defense is healthy and I like the Ravens to straight-up win in Buffalo Saturday night, so I’d be all over the +2.5 in that matchup.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“The Bills (-2.5) lost three games during the season. Of the 13 games the Bills won, they never won by fewer than three points. I project the Bills to win this game, and barring a safety or missing an extra point, the point difference shouldn’t be less than a field goal, in all likelihood. The Bills should cover the 2.5 point spread.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

“The Packers at -6.5 seems like a gift. The Rams have showcased an absolutely elite pass defense this season, but you could argue that Aaron Rodgers has been the most matchup-proof QB this year (even more than Patrick Mahomes). It’s the Rams’ offense that worries me in this one, as Jared Goff clearly had trouble gripping the ball with his bad hand last week and LG David Edwards and WR Cooper Kupp have been unable to practice all week. Kupp was the key in the slot as Green Bay features elite perimeter defense under DC Mike Pettine, and if he’s out or limited, I just don’t see how the Rams generate enough offense to stay close here. Green Bay -6.5 all day.”
– Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice)

View more picks against the spread from dozens of experts >>

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under and why?

TB at NO: 52 – Over
“Tampa Bay and New Orleans were the third- and fifth-highest scoring teams in the NFL this season, respectively, and both teams come into this one firing on all cylinders. In the four games since Drew Brees returned from injury in Week 15, New Orleans has averaged 33.75 points/game – the third-highest per-game average in the league over that span, behind only the Buccaneers and the Bills. Not only have the Bucs averaged a hefty 38.25 points/game over their last four, but they’ve also proven they can do it on the road, leading the NFL in points scored away from home this season. I’m expecting lots of points in the Superdome on Sunday.”
– Dan Larocca (Locked In Football)

BAL at BUF: 49.5 – Over
“I’ll easily take the over 49.5 in the Ravens-Bills game this weekend. Baltimore is red hot as Lamar Jackson is playing like it’s his 2019 MVP season, and he gets a matchup well-suited for him as the Bills have allowed the 12th-most QB rushing yards (327) and the third-most QB rushing touchdowns (seven). On the flip side, Josh Allen has proven himself to be matchup-proof as well this year as he posted a 17:2 TD:INT ratio and three rushing touchdowns over the Bills’ last six games (where he faced SF, PIT, DEN, NE, MIA, and IND in the playoffs — all above-average to elite pass defenses). This game screams shootout potential, so over 49.5 seems more than reasonable to cover.”
– Jamie Calandro (Fantasy Team Advice)

CLE at KC: 57 – Over
“Everyone knows about Andy Reid’s great record coming off a bye and that includes the postseason. If you look at the most recent games off a bye with Patrick Mahomes as the QB, the Chiefs put up nearly 40 points per game in those contests. While it’s possible the Browns struggle to score in Kansas City, I’m not sure it’ll matter much to hit the over. The Chiefs put up 51 against the Texans in last year’s Divisional Round game, and I think the same thing will happen this weekend. This total keeps climbing and I still like the over at 57.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

TB at NO: 52 – Under
“Sticking with Tampa Bay, both of these teams have played exceptional defense, sitting top five in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The under has hit in four-straight New Orleans home playoff games. 52 points seem like too many.”
– Anthony Amico (In the Aggregate)

LAR at GB: 45.5 – Over 
“The Rams have averaged 23.25 points during the season and the Packers averaged 31.81 points, which combined is approximately 55 points (55.06). That’s about 10 points more than the over/under line. I would bet the over, which is currently at 45.5. To add to that, I expect the exceptional Packers’ offense to overcome the top-tier Rams’ defense. Likewise, I expect the Rams’ offense to be able to score early and often on the middle-of-the-road Packers’ defense, leading to a higher scoring game that should beat the implied totals.”
– Tal Malachovsky (The Fantasy Scout)

View full set of consensus Over/Under game picks here >>

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more advice throughout the playoffs.

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