Wide receivers most commonly break out in their second or third professional seasons. Some of the receivers heading into their third season in 2021 have already broken out, while others are still hoping to break out. For most of the 2019 draft class, as with any draft class, it will never happen.
This list will focus exclusively on the third-year receivers who are fantasy-relevant. Sadly, despite being the second receiver taken in the 2019 draft, N’Keal Harry will not appear, as he is not worth discussing.
Almost every wide receiver from the 2019 draft class comes with a price that leaves some room for improvement. Some tremendous opportunity exists value-wise with this draft class. I based my rankings in order of whom I see as the likeliest to become a valuable fantasy asset – not necessarily the order in which I would draft them, which, as always, is tethered to ADP to maximize value. Here we go.
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It definitely was not easy at the top. You can already guess who the next name on this list is, and he easily could’ve been here. Ultimately, I went with A.J. Brown as the best third-year wide receiver. Brown averaged 17.4 ppg last season, finishing as the WR7. Of the top 12 wide receivers in fantasy last season, only Adam Thielen and his outrageous touchdown rate averaged fewer targets per game than Brown. With the Titans’ defense even more questionable than it was last season and a very consolidated target share expected with the team possessing no viable pass-catchers beyond Brown and Julio Jones, Brown, an efficiency monster, could finally see some true WR1 level volume. If Brown can be a WR1 in fantasy without volume, just imagine what he can do with it?
D.K. Metcalf averaged just 0.3 ppg fewer than Brown, finishing as the WR9. Metcalf is well worth being selected as a top 10 wide receiver, but he is a bit overvalued as he was nowhere near as good over the second half of 2020 as the first half. Metcalf averaged 20.6 ppg over his first seven games, which included a monstrous 40 point effort, but averaged just 14.1 ppg over his final nine games. The wide receiver position is inherently volatile, so we shouldn’t hold that against Metcalf too much, but the Seahawks’ refusal to let Russell Wilson cook combined with Metcalf’s inconsistency resulted in Brown getting the edge.
I love me some Terry McLaurin. The Football Team’s WR1 managed to average 15.1 ppg last season despite dealing with Dwayne Haskins, Kyle Allen, the ghost of Alex Smith, and Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm, McLaurin is set to be a target monster. Fitzpatrick historically has peppered his WR1s with targets. From 2010-2020, Fitzpatrick’s WR1 averaged 16.2 ppg, and that number was bolstered by the really talented WR1s he’s had like Brandon Marshall, DeAndre Hopkins, and Mike Evans. McLaurin may not be on their level, but he has the potential to be close. The Football Team’s receiving volume should be heavily consolidated amongst McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas, making McLaurin well worth a mid-third-round pick.
By now, anyone following me knows how much I love Diontae Johnson. It speaks volumes about the guys in front of him that I could only manage to put him fourth on this list. Johnson is a tremendous talent that gets open at will. Most importantly, he’s earned the trust of Ben Roethlisberger. Critics of Johnson point to his low yards per target (6.4, 98th in the league according to Playerprofiler). I am more than willing to place the blame on an aging Big Ben. Nevertheless, targets are earned. Roethlisberger throws to Johnson because he trusts Johnson. It is not an accident that Johnson saw double-digit targets in 10/15 games last season. He is going to push WR1 numbers this season and is a screaming value in the fourth round.
Deebo Samuel is a tough one to get a read on entering his third season. As a rookie, he posted a very respectable 57-802-6 (three rushing) line. Many expected a sophomore breakout, but that was derailed mostly due to injury. Samuel played in just six games, but he was largely good in those six games. Samuel had a WR1 week, a WR2 week, and two WR4 weeks. Entering year three, Samuel is contending with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle for targets while potentially dealing with a new quarterback when Trey Lance inevitably takes over for Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance is good for the 49ers but may not be so good for Samuel as Lance’s rushing acumen could lead to an overall decrease in passing volume. The 49ers were already run-heavy with Garoppolo, particularly in 2019 when they ran the ball on 51% of plays. That percentage dropped to 43% last season, but the presence of Lance should result in a return to a 50-50 split. That’s not good for the talented Samuel as he will need to rely on efficiency to produce. Samuel can certainly do it, and his price is not overly prohibitive. He’s definitely worthy of his WR3/4 borderline ADP and is more reward than risk at that spot.
The Ravens have invested a lot of draft capital into the wide receiver position over the past couple of years. Unfortunately, they have yet to really figure it out. Spending a first-rounder on Hollywood Brown in 2019 has not panned out as Brown is just not a WR1 in the NFL. The good news is with Rashod Bateman now poised to take that spot, Brown can play his natural role of stretch Z. Brown was never going to be a target monster, but with the absence of any semblance of talent in the Ravens’ receiving corps, there was not much Brown could do to be efficient. That has a shot at changing this season. Between Bateman, fellow rookie Tylan Wallace, and the corpse of Sammy Watkins, at least defenses will have to respect the other receivers on the field. It’s a vast improvement over the likes of Willie Snead and Miles Boykin. Brown was a mid-to-low WR4 last season, and that is exactly where he’s being drafted. It feels like his floor, which makes Brown a solid upside play in the late single-digit rounds of fantasy drafts.
The Rest
To recap, the top six third-year wide receivers are:
- A.J. Brown
- D.K Metcalf
- Terry McLaurin
- Diontae Johnson
- Deebo Samuel
- Marquise Brown
There are a few additional third-year wide receivers worth mentioning.
Parris Campbell (IND): News of Carson Wentz likely missing at least the first month of the season puts a damper on Parris Campbell breakout hopes, but the third-year receiver out of Ohio State hasn’t really gotten a chance to shine due to injuries of his own. With T.Y. Hilton just about done and no heir apparent, Campbell is as good of a late-round dart throw as any.
Jakobi Meyers (NE): While nothing to write home about, Jakobi Meyers had a decent stretch last season where he was a solid plug-and-play flex option. Meyers was unable to find the end zone all season, mostly because Cam Newton was allergic to throwing touchdowns, but he did record 59 receptions for 729 yards. By all accounts, Meyers is entering 2021 as the Patriots WR1. This passing offense is not going to be prolific, but this is a guy that had games of 12-169 and 7-111 last season. That’s not nothing. You could do far worse as your WR5.
Mecole Hardman (KC): The kid who was panic drafted out of fear that Tyreek Hill would miss the 2019 season never really had a chance. Mecole Hardman may look like Hill, but Tyreek Hill he is not. There are those that will blame Sammy Watkins’ presence of Hardman’s inability to break out, but the reality is he’s had his chances and couldn’t definitively establish superiority over the likes of Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle. It feels like Patrick Mahomes should be able to support a third fantasy-relevant pass catcher, but there just isn’t one on the Chiefs.
Darius Slayton (NYG): Darius Slayton was a popular sleeper last season as the Giants have had a void at WR1 since the departure of Odell Beckham. Slayton disappointed, and then the Giants went out and signed Kenny Golladay before drafting Kadarius Toney in the first round. You don’t need the WR3 on a Daniel Jones offense.
Finally, even though I said I wouldn’t mention irrelevant players, it can’t hurt to at least acknowledge the following receivers that, at some point or another, were guys we thought might be something. Simply put, none of these guys matter.
N’Keal Harry (NE)
Andy Isabella (ARI)
Miles Boykin (BAL)
Hunter Renfrow (LV)
Scotty Miller (TB)
Travis Fulgham (PHI)
Bisi Johnson (MIN)
Preston Williams (MIA)
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
