When you play in as many fantasy football leagues as I do, there will be bad seasons…or should I say, bad teams. I don’t remember having too many basement-dwelling squads in my 20-plus seasons in fantasy football, but I’ll never forget my worst. Injuries were involved: I started my 2020 draft with Michael Thomas and Julio Jones. They weren’t the whole story either.
I told myself I was going to load up on mid-range RBs that slipped in the draft after landing two absolute studs at WR, but none of them fell. After a few reaches on guys who I was shaky-at-best on, I then exacerbated the situation by grabbing my stacking quarterback Drew Brees two rounds early. Miss after miss, snipe after snipe. I could not revive this awfully-drafted roster. If I had planned ahead better, with the tiered rankings system I use now, it would have easily been more of a fruitful campaign.
The worst thing I did in that awful draft (in an awful year) was filter my queue by the site’s average draft position (ADP). I was a slave to it, and it cost me. If you draft based on average anything, you are doomed to plateau in painful mediocrity. ADP is simple data to encapsulate where other fantasy players are taking players, not where you should.
This was a fun exercise. I went through each of the first 10 rounds and selected the absolute worst pick among the 12 players in that ADP range. Some rounds were cut and dry, which made selecting the worst pick easier. Others had more than a few guys with massive value pitfalls, and I had to drill down a bit more to decide who stunk the worst. It was quite the journey, but here is the worst team (based on ADP) you can compile in 2022 fantasy drafts.
Round 1: Joe Mixon (RB – CIN)
The difficulty with finding the worst pick with a first-round ADP comes down to comparing and contrasting last year’s performance with this year’s projection. I love Joe Mixon, but he stands on the shakiest ground among the other prospective top picks. He is trending as the 10th selection (RB7) in fantasy drafts this summer, without a lot of controversies since he was RB4 in PPR formats in 2021. My contention is with the fear of a growing third-down role for Chris Evans, who is already wedging out Samaje Perine this offseason. In addition, Mixon is certainly in danger of serious touchdown regression. His 16 scores last season exceeded his previous career high by seven. I would much rather grab Mixon with an early second-round pick after snagging an elite WR or another RB like D’Andre Swift, who is going as the RB8 currently.
Round 2: Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
Unless you are still clinging to a relic league with standard scoring, Nick Chubb will not help you win at fantasy. His elite rushing ability simply does not make up for the fact that he is a committee back who does not catch passes. The second round is often littered with amazing WR talent, elite TEs, and RBs with a higher ceiling in PPR formats. In fact, there are four RBs with second-round ADP whom I would select over Chubb: Javonte Williams, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones.
Round 3: Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
Single QB leagues introduce a concept that many fantasy owners struggle to understand: replacement value > name value. Mahomes is a fantastic QB with oodles of fantasy upside, but he very well could be outscored by as many as six other QBs with later ADPs in fantasy. The Chiefs offense must transition to a life without the most dynamic playmaker in franchise history, Tyreek Hill. They need to accomplish this in the most hellacious division in the NFL. Pardon me for doubting Mahomes as a top-5 QB when the Cheetah has been replaced with a guy who ran wind sprints for years with Aaron Rodgers and a TikTok personality who has never performed well without a future Hall of Fame WR on the other side of the ball. I’d rather wait on QB and load up on the bounty of skill talent still lingering in this area of the draft.
Round 4: Josh Jacobs (RB – LV)
This ADP is quickly trending downward, but the league’s second-most delusional fanbase is digging in their heels and drafting Jacobs like he’s Marcus Allen. Jacobs has been consistent as a borderline RB1 or RB2 his whole career but now will attempt to keep up his pace in a Patriots-style committee. This backfield reminds me of a rotisserie oven where each chicken takes turns blistering over the fire before retreating back into obscurity. Jacobs has never been a picture of efficiency as a runner, instead relying on a steady flow of rushing touchdowns (he has zero career receiving touchdowns) to bolster his fantasy stock.
Round 5: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)
In one of the more puzzling hype machines of the 2022 offseason, Sutton has entered the WR2 conversation and is being drafted alongside WRs who are better in every single facet than he is. I like Sutton’s prospects a lot, compared to last season’s depressing quarterback play and archaic offensive coaching philosophy. He should get a nice boost from the arrivals of head coach Nathaniel Hackett and QB Russell Wilson. Where the Sutton truthers lose me completely is when he is taken ahead of WRs like Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Marquise Brown, Chris Godwin, and his own teammate Jerry Jeudy. I much prefer the technical expertise of Jeudy in the Hackett offense over Sutton’s one-speed prowess with contested catches down the field. Sutton was awful in his own rite last season, rating worse in Reception Perception than rookie project Nico Collins in the same archetype. I want to roster Sutton, but his ADP is literally making it impossible.
Round 6: Dalton Schultz (TE – DAL)
The Cowboys are my favorite team, and I have warmed considerably to Schultz. It is very likely that Dallas leans on him heavily until Michael Gallup returns from his injury. This is another case of a good player who is simply going far too early in drafts and ahead of better options at his position. TJ Hockenson is a far superior receiver to Schultz, who was pacing for 120-plus targets before he went down last season. Dallas Goedert is also a better fantasy TE than Schultz, who goes two rounds later in fantasy ADP. I like Schultz, but a volume-based breakout player who is considering his long-term options on the franchise tag doesn’t sit well with me this early in the draft. I need more upside from my sixth-round pick.
Round 7: JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR – KC)
It is completely unfathomable that JuJu is going before Elijah Moore and Rashod Bateman in drafts. Utterly inexcusable. Smith-Schuster’s ADP is a reflection of fantasy malpractice of the highest order. JuJu has been nothing more than a dump-off zone beater of epic volume proportions since his breakout season. The Chiefs don’t need that player. Andy Reid has Travis Kelce as his big slot and incumbent Mecole Hardman as his speed slot to press the vertical seam where Tyreek Hill used to. On the outside, where JuJu has never been good at gaining separation, the Chiefs have veteran lid-lifter Marquez Valdes-Scantling and explosive rookie Skyy Moore. JuJu is a man without a position. Even if he does have some redeeming qualities, his early signing is now under scrutiny with the Moore selection. I love him as a WR5 in the 9th-10th round, but he’s destined to bust this early.
Round 8: Chase Edmonds (RB – MIA)
Do we have any clue if any of the Dolphins’ RBs will get more than 10 touches per game? I don’t think anyone knows for certain. Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel are here too. Miami has also held onto Salvon Ahmed and Myles Gaskin for some reason. Who’s to say that offensive guru Mike McDaniel won’t put Tyreek Hill in the Deebo Samuel “wide back” role this season? I will save myself the stress and just not draft any of the Dolphins’ RBs this season, similar to the 49ers and Patriots. Edmonds is a nice player, but one with an awfully muddy outlook. Under duress, I would still take Melvin Gordon over Edmonds. More often than not, I’m hammering upside WRs like Brandon Aiyuk in this area of fantasy drafts.
Round 9: Allen Lazard (WR – GB)
Vacated targets are like the tooth fairy: it’s just your dad sneaking in with Budweiser breath shoving a wadded-up dollar bill under your pillow instead of offering sage advice for the future. Lazard is not a good receiver. He was more of a blocking tight end last season for Green Bay than anything. He’s tall and should understand the offense enough to earn Aaron Rodgers’ trust by now, but is not good at getting open. I am thankful that Romeo Doubs has impressed in training camp because Lazard was picking up too much steam before then. The WRs who “could be the guy” because “someone has to be the guy” is better left for the double-digit rounds anyway.
Round 10: Kadarius Toney (WR – NYG)
I still don’t get the allure of Toney for fantasy. The shiftiness and pizzazz he showed in a game-and-a-half stretch last season have blinded fantasy managers to how atrocious his play was in the other eight games he played in last season. Toney is still nothing more than a gadget player with prodigious YAC ability. He is intriguing in best ball because of the inevitable two to four spike weeks he will wow us with, but there are dozens of WRs who would be more justifiable tenth-round picks in your redraft league. WR89 from last season is still not a good route technician and has to contend with an awful quarterback situation. Maybe he can evolve into a more consistent option when the Giants select a top QB for next season.
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