This is “The Watchlist.”
“The Watchlist” is a weekly column designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. Whether they’re waiver wire or trade targets, these are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity or trade target in a week or two.
Using underlying and advanced metrics, “The Watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards later from your pickups.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA.
They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and a different kind of player entirely. The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve of your league mates.
The payoff might not be immediate, but they should eventually provide significant value, more often than not.
These are some of those players for this week.
Kremer, like a number of players on the upstart Orioles, is enjoying a breakout campaign in the Majors. The 26-year-old has logged a 3.24 ERA and a 3.52 FIP in 15 starts spanning 83.1 innings this year. And while he’s only struck out 62 batters during that span, he’s also surrendered just 18 walks and seven home runs.
The lack of walks and home runs, combined with Baltimore’s improved play and the win potential that comes with it, makes Kremer a useful fantasy option for the rest of the season.
But it’s his home splits that make him a quality fantasy option moving forward.
Kremer has a 3.16 ERA in 37 innings spanning seven home starts this year. He’s also striking out more batters at home as well.
Dean Kremer Overall In 2022: 18.4 K%, 6.70 K/9
Dean Kremer At Home In 2022: 20.9 K%, 7.5 K/9
Starting with a Friday matchup against the Oakland Athletics, four of Kremer’s next five starts should come at home, right in time for the fantasy playoffs. Two of those four are against the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros, but another is against the Detroit Tigers. His only road start during that stretch – assuming Baltimore’s rotation doesn’t change too much – is on the road against a Washington Nationals team that began Thursday having scored the second-fewest runs in the season’s second half.
Is there a changing of the guard happening at the back end of the Miami bullpen? Tanner Scott still paces the bullpen in saves and has both of the Marlins’ last two saves and five of their last six saves in the past 30 days.
However, he’s also sporting a walks-per-nine innings rate of 6.24 and pitched in the seventh inning in each of his last two outings. Making things even more complicated is the fact that he struck out five of the six total batters he faced in those two innings of work.
It’s certainly not the most straightforward situation, but if the Marlins make a change in the ninth inning, Floro is the logical candidate.
The veteran is sporting a 3.76 ERA and a 3.62 FIP in 38.1 innings this year, to go along with 33 strikeouts, 11 walks, five holds, and three saves. He’s also the only reliever in Miami’s bullpen besides Scott who has a save in the last 30 days.
Elsewhere, the reliever leads all Marlins relievers – and is tied for the league lead – in high-leverage appearances since August 18 with five. Those don’t always translate to saves or even holds, but it’s clear that the Marlins trust Floro in key spots.
Fantasy managers in search of under-the-radar potential saves candidates for the stretch run should look no further than Floro.
Carpenter is more of a potential pickup in deeper fantasy leagues. However, he could certainly make an impact down the stretch for fantasy managers.
The outfielder connected on 30 home runs in an even 400 plate appearances in the minors with Detroit’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, hitting .313 with a .380 on-base percentage and three steals in the process.
The 25-year-old has continued to produce in the Majors so far in a small sample size. It’s just 50 plate appearances, but the outfielder has collected a pair of home runs and five barrels so far.
Overall, he’s hitting .273 with a .340 on-base percentage in those 50 plate appearances. Half of his hits have gone for extra-base hits this season, and the rookie already has a pair of three-hit games under his belt in his first 14 Major League contests.
Once again, it’s a small sample size, so it’s hard to draw too much from some of his metrics, like a rather low 32.3% hard-hit rate. But the fact that he’s connecting on so many barrels early – his barrel rate so far with the Tigers is 16.1% — is plenty encouraging. So too is a .406 xwOBAcon. For reference, Christian Yelich has a .410 xwOBAcon this season, while Bo Bichette has a .400 xwOBAcon.
Again, we’re talking about a small number of plate appearances for Carpenter in the Majors. Still, the fact that he’s carried over some of his minor league power production without missing too much of a beat early on is promising.
What’s more, there should be plenty of opportunity for consistent playing opportunities down the stretch for the power-starved Tigers, giving Carpenter the opportunity to continue collecting additional barrels and home runs.
One of the sport’s best prospects, Henderson made an early impact in his Major League debut, collecting a home run in his second Major League plate appearance as part of a two-hit effort. He certainly has the power potential to be a factor for some fantasy managers in the season’s final weeks, but it’s what he did in his second career Major League game that makes the 21-year-old a potential must-add for the stretch run.
Henderson only had one hit in his second contest on Thursday but added a stolen base in the Orioles’ win over the Cleveland Guardians.
The ability to steal bases certainly isn’t anything new for Henderson. The 21-year-old previously spent the year playing for Baltimore’s Double-A and Triple-A clubs, batting .297 with a .416 on-base percentage, 19 home runs, and 22 stolen bases.
Plus, in their assessment of the Orioles’ top 45 prospects in early February, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein gave Henderson a 50 grade from a running standpoint on the 20-80 scale.
Baltimore also isn’t afraid to send runners on the base paths either.
Entering play Thursday, only seven teams had more stolen bases. Most of the Orioles’ stolen bases have come from Cedric Mullins and Jorge Mateo, but Ryan Mountcastle, Rougned Odor, and Adley Rutschman have all chipped in with stolen bases here and there, combining for 11 this season.
An extra stolen base here and there, much like a save, can be a game changer for fantasy managers in weekly matchups this time of year. Henderson can certainly provide some stolen base production, and he’ll likely contribute some home runs as well.
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