Statcast Review: Jordan Walker, Pablo Lopez, Yandy Diaz (2023 Fantasy Baseball)

It’s the end of the first seven days of baseball season and you know what that means… numbers! Statcast numbers to be exact. Many statistics take time to stabilize, including Statcast data, but there are some worth keeping an eye on, especially early in the season. That’s where I come in.

Admittedly, I’m still feeling out what direction I want this article to go. This is going to be a weekly piece moving forward and as of right now, I think it’s going to be an article highlighting noteworthy Statcast data from the prior week . It may also have some weeks where I cover full-season Statcast data worth watching. Regardless, it’s going to be a fun article where I get a chance to share which numbers have me the most excited.

Statcast Round-Up – Week 1 Standouts

Jordan Walker (3B/OF – St. Louis Cardinals): Power/Speed Combo

One of the top prospects in baseball, Jordan Walker has been as advertised so far this season. Probably a bit better than advertised, to be honest. Five games into his MLB career and Walker is showing that he’s more than just the power hitter everyone expected him to be. In the minors, he flashed a solid hit tool and excellent power with a little bit of speed. But I don’t think anyone expected what we’ve seen thus far.

First, let’s start with the power. Keep in mind that the sample size is small, but let’s have a little fun with it. Currently, Walker has not barreled up a ball. Despite that, he has an average exit velocity of 89 MPH and a max exit velocity of 113.9 MPH. The max exit velocity is in the 99th percentile so far this season, and would have been the 32nd hardest-hit ball in all of 2022. He also already has 10 batted ball events with an exit velocity of 100 MPH or above. The only thing Walker needs to stabilize is his launch angle. Currently just -5.9 degrees, but if he can get that up in the 12-degree range, he’s going to put up monster numbers in the power department.

Now for the speed. Fangraphs had Walker rated as a 50/40 speed guy coming into the season. Walker already proved that to be too low, registering a sprint speed of 28.5 FPS this season. That would have been a top-100 sprint speed in 2022. The surprising speed along with the power and hit tool is something reminiscent of Julio Rodriguez last season: a youngster not known for his speed showing up at the big-league level and proving he’s a five-tool guy and a worthy top-end fantasy baseball pick.

Pablo Lopez (SP – Minnesota Twins): New Pitch + Velocity

After the move from Miami to Minnesota, Pablo Lopez put himself to work enhancing his pitch repertoire and boy, has it paid off. First, the added velocity has made a huge difference. His velocity is up almost 2 MPH across the board. It’s especially apparent in his fastball, which now averages 95.1 MPH. With the added speed has also come a jump in spin rates. Most pitches have jumped around 200 RPM. More speed plus a higher spin rate leads to better movement and higher whiff rates.

In terms of whiff rate, that is where Lopez has seen the biggest change this season. With 32 whiffs through two games, Lopez’s current whiff rate of 41.8% is well above the career-high 28.1% he put up in 2022. While the velocity and spin rates have been a big part of it, much of his huge whiff rates are due to his new pitch, the sweeper. A pitch that players like Shohei Ohtani have perfected, Lopez is making a case to enter the “Best Sweeper in the League” category.

Pablo López tossed his slider (a pitch he didn't have last season) 33% of the time today against the Marlins.

It returned a 52% CSW.

He's also 2+ ticks up in fastball velocity.

I'm in love.

— Nick Pollack (@PitcherList) April 6, 2023

With an average speed of 85 MPH and spin rate of 2,511 RPM, Lopez has thrown his sweeper 28 times and generated 17 swinging strikes. That’s a whiff rate of 60.7%. There’s something about a player perfecting a pitch before it ever gets used. Some guys learn a new pitch and work on getting more control of it as the season goes on. Then there are guys like Lopez, who learn a new pitch, make it his most used pitch, and have it become one of the best strikeout pitches in baseball when the season has barely begun. It’s worth keeping an eye on as the season progresses, but if it continues, it will propel Lopez into the next tier of pitchers.

Yandy Diaz (3B – Tampa Bay Rays): POWER

If you weren’t following me this draft season, you may have missed out on just how high I’ve been on Yandy Diaz. He was a points league monster in 2022, and his second half made him one of my biggest breakout candidates for 2023. In the second half of 2022, Diaz had a 53.7% hard-hit rate, 93.5 MPH average exit velocity, and hit six home runs in 53 games, as compared to his three home runs during his first 82 games.

That power has carried over to 2023. Not only does he have the incredible plate discipline we’re accustomed to (18.2% walk rate, 9.1% strikeout rate), but he’s getting the bat on the ball in a major way. Through the first four games, Diaz has recorded 12 batted ball events. Seven of those 12 reached 100+ MPH. As it sits, his average exit velocity on the year is 98.9 MPH, with a max of 113.2 MPH. His average exit velocity is the highest in all of baseball.

In the early portion of the season, Diaz is in the 90th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xBA, walk rate, and chase rate. If he can keep his launch angle at the current 7.5 degrees or higher, he is set to end the season with some career-high numbers in many categories. Diaz is moving from a points league commodity to one of the best third basemen in all fantasy baseball formats.