Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through May 22, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
After slugging .536 with seven long balls in April, it appeared Lowe’s bounce-back campaign was in full swing. Then, the All-Star second baseman began May with a rough 1-for-31 slide that included an extremely weak 27.3 HardHit% – down from 54.5% the previous month.
The overall results have not returned in full for Lowe, but the past 10 days have seen some course correction. In that span, he has slugged .464 with a homer and a pair of doubles. He has also logged a 47.6-HardHit% and 92.2 mph EV. Lowe’s flyball swing (51.0 FB%) should soon begin producing plenty of home runs once again now that he’s resumed squaring the ball up.
Alcantara has not yet consistently performed anywhere close to the award-winning form he displayed all throughout the 2022 season. Still, he has outpitched the results shown on his 2023 ledger, particularly here in May.
Over four starts so far this month, Alcantara has turned in an elevated 5.06 and 1.31 WHIP across 26 2/3 innings. That ERA is actually covering up a 3.98 xFIP. The right-hander’s WHIP is largely the result of an unlucky .342 BABIP, which should come down if he maintains his batted-ball profile. Alcantara has recorded a 47.3 GB%, 17.6 LD% and 86.2 mph EV during this stretch. It’s also at least worth mentioning that he has posted a 24.6 K% compared to a 20.8 mark in his first five starts of the year.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Christopher Morel (2B,3B,SS,OF – CHC)
Morel is not Aaron Judge. One could be forgiven for that mistake given the versatile youngster’s absolutely ridiculous stat line since returning to the big leagues back on May 9.
Morel enjoyed a mostly promising rookie season in 2022, and, despite being left off the Cubs’ roster to begin this season, he utterly destroyed Triple-A pitching (1.156 OPS, 11 HR) for a month and earned his way back up. What most did not predict is that he would carry right on bashing MLB hurlers just the same, but that’s exactly what Morel has done.
Entering play on Tuesday, Morel has homered in each of his last four games and eight times over his 48 plate appearances for the Cubs so far this year. He’s added three doubles, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored alongside his otherworldly .370/.396/.957 slash line. Simply put, those numbers are not sustainable for anyone. Considering Morel’s 37.5 K%, .450 BABIP and 50.0% HR/FB combo, he has a VERY long way to fall before leveling off. This is arguably the easiest “sell high” scenario ever.
Kremer has put forth a nice run over his last four outings, especially after struggling mightily (6.67 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) in six starts last month. This month, even with matchups against four of the top 13 scoring offenses – three of the top 10 – in the league, the Baltimore righty has grooved to the tune of a 1.96 ERA with an improved 1.35 WHIP. Don’t buy it.
During this stretch, Kremer has actually seen his hard-hit rate increase from 42.7% to an atrocious 54.9% while his contact rates and batted-ball profile have only had minuscule moves in the right direction. The significant improvement for Kremer has been an almost impossible 92.2% strand rate in May compared to a 68.9% mark in April. For reference, only one qualifying pitcher –Shane McClanahan (92.3%) – has a strand rate above 90.0% for the season. Kremer’s luck is going to run out soon just as his 4.45 xFIP for the month suggests.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
