Here are players I’m targeting wherever possible in dynasty rookie drafts. You can find our expert consensus dynasty rookie rankings here.
Must-Have Players in Dynasty Rookie Drafts
Expert Consensus 2023 Dynasty Superflex Rookie Draft Rankings: Top-50 
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)
Richardson looks like a quarterback with only one full season of starting experience under his belt. Many passing plays have a predetermined target immediately. Richardson rarely gets to his second option; when he does, it feels a tick behind. Sometimes, he hesitates with open wide receivers pumping the ball instead of firing as if he doesn’t trust his eyes. Richardson was utilized on a ton of bootlegs to the right. This was also a favorite escape path when pressured, as he would roll out right in many cases instead of stepping up in the pocket. Richardson looks comfortable throwing on the run, moving to his right. His ball placement is strong in these play designs. Richardson has a cannon for an arm, but he’s still refining it. His ball placement can be erratic. He’ll toss a ball behind a receiver running a slant and then hit a receiver in stride for a 50-yard bomb into double coverage. The flashes of upside are brilliant. You get a glimpse of the type of game-changing quarterback Richardson can be if it all coalesces. His strong arm still needs taming. He needs to gain touch on short and intermediate throws. He has only one gear on many of these plays: a full-bore fastball. Richardson isn’t an anticipatory thrower. He’s still in the see it throw it phase of his evolution. Richardson is a sick athlete capable of highlight-reel-worthy play every snap. He’s an explosive rusher with some nice lateral agility for his size. When he’s in a rhythm, he is a special player.
If you’re an Anthony Richardson truther or just a fan of elite upside, you should be streaking in the streets after shotgunning a few cocktails with Richardson landing with Shane Steichen. Steichen’s track record with quarterbacks is proven and polished. Yes, he helped Jalen Hurts, but even before that, he assisted Justin Herbert in his rookie season and Philip Rivers before him. Richardson’s rushing upside is ridiculous. That alone gives him a top-12 floor in fantasy in his rookie season, assuming he starts in Week 1. Indy has Michael Pittman, Jonathan Taylor, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs to help make Richardson’s life easier when he drops back to pass. Look for Steichen to dial up the deep heaves as well. Over the last two seasons, Jalen Hurts finished 14th and fourth in deep ball passing rate (minimum 20 deep attempts per PFF). Last year among 148 quarterbacks with at least 20 deep attempts (per PFF), Richardson ranked 20th in PFF deep passing grade and 30th in deep passer rating. The Colts will be an explosive play factory this year. In Superflex dynasty rookie drafts, you can make an argument for Richardson over Bijan Robinson, with Richardson’s floor being 1.03. In 1QB dynasty formats, he is the QB1 of this class because of his rushing production.
C.J. Stroud (QB – HOU)
In 2021, Stroud was tenth in pressured adjusted completion rate and 12th in pressured PFF passing grade while facing the 16th-lowest pressure rate (23.8%, minimum 50 pressured dropbacks). Stroud has quiet feet against pressure and can make plays outside of structure. Stroud has effortless velocity on his throws. He has plenty of arm strength to fit any throw into a tight window. His accuracy is also sound on the move. He can layer throws against zone coverage with the best of them. His film is littered with special throws to the boundary that takes moxie to dial-up. He has no issues testing man coverage and tossing it up for his receiver to win. Stroud will sometimes hang on his first read, but there’s plenty of film of him performing full-field reads. He moves through his progressions quickly to find the open receiver. As the collegiate stats will show, Stroud isn’t a rushing threat, but that doesn’t mean he’s a statue in the pocket. He has plenty of maneuverability in the pocket, which he uses exceptionally well. He steps up in the pocket when necessary to avoid rushers and can get outside of structure when necessary and deliver an accurate throw on the run. Stroud won’t be a “rushing quarterback” at the next level, but that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have the wheels to grab an easy 5-7 yards when the defense is offering it up.
After the smoke screen of the NFL Draft cleared, C.J. Stroud was drafted second overall to the Texans to become the pillar of their rebuild process. Houston added Juice Scruggs and Shaq Mason to an offensive line that allowed the 12th-lowest adjusted sack rate last year. This line should give Stroud time in the pocket in his rookie season. While the offensive line won’t be among the best in the league, it should be at least average. The same can be said for Stroud’s receiving weapons. A starting pass-catcher unit of Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Dalton Schultz, and John Metchie or Tank Dell isn’t sexy, but it also isn’t a total dumpster fire. Woods’ box score numbers last year weren’t great, but if we dig deeper, he doesn’t look washed. Last year he was 15th in open rate (per ESPN), immediately behind Christian Watson. Stroud remains a top-three pick in Superflex rookie dynasty drafts.
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI)
Roschon Johnson is a north/south runner. He is at his best when he gets downhill quickly and into the second level. Johnson is patient at the line and scheme versatile. He has good lateral agility for his size, but he’s not a wiggle-back. However, Johnson has enough juice and good vision to work well on zone runs. Johnson quickly gets up to top speed but lacks that second “home-run” gear. He displays good contact balance. He’s able to shed arm tackles, and there’s plenty of film of him making the first would-be tackler miss. He was utilized on dump-offs in college. He displayed soft hands when called upon in the passing game.
Roschon Johnson is now a Chicago Bear. Chicago has sounded elated to the media about his fall to the fourth round of the NFL Draft. While D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert also reside on this depth chart, Johnson could carve out a role as soon as Week 1. After losing David Montgomery in free agency, the team has shown a lack of faith in Herbert by bringing in Foreman on a one-year deal and selecting Johnson in the draft. If we’re reading the tea leaves correctly, with these moves and the draft pick of Darnell Wright, the team could be moving to more gap scheme runs in 2023 and beyond. Johnson is a scheme versatile back, but his downhill and powerful running style will play well in a gap-oriented attack. Johnson could be the leader of this committee early, and if he gets a stranglehold on the work or at least the lead share, he might not let go. Johnson is a second-round rookie draft pick and my RB4 of this class.
Evan Hull (RB – IND)
Evan Hull is a tough runner with a compact build. He’s more quick than fast, but Hull also displays good burst as soon as the ball is in his hands. He has excellent lateral agility and can jump cut on a dime. Hull has a strong leg drive to finish runs with impressive contact balance. He’s rarely dropped by the first defender he encounters. Watching Hull weave through traffic with jump cuts and impressive vision is a treat. Hull is also a plus-pass catcher. Hull is fluid in the passing game and has soft hands. He’s not a nuanced route runner, as he was utilized on dump-offs and simple stop routes. This part of his game could grow further in the NFL with a creative play-caller.
I’m an Evan Hull fanboy, and I don’t care who knows it. Hull has a three-down workhorse build and skillset. Zack Moss and Deon Jackson are scrubs to which new head coach Shane Steichen has no previous ties. The fifth-round pick could quickly ascend to RB2 on the Colts’ depth chart and factor in on passing downs. Jonathan Taylor is an unrestricted free agent after this season. I’m not saying that Hull is the heir apparent because the team could easily sign Taylor to an extension at any moment, but I also won’t rule out that Hull could take over for Taylor if the team moves on. Hull will slip to the fourth or maybe fifth round in many rookie dynasty drafts. I have no issues with anyone drafting him as early as the late-third round. This class becomes a grab bag of “get your guys” after round two.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)
Smith-Njigba won’t burn you in the open field with his raw speed, but that isn’t necessary for him to succeed. He’s a route tactician with the route-running chops of an NFL veteran. Smith-Njigba’s snap at the top of his stem is excellent, which allows him to create easy separation. Any team investing high draft capital in him knows what they are getting: a high-volume wide receiver that can work both inside and on the perimeter. Yes, Smith-Njigba was a slot receiver in college, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the intangibles to get loose on the boundary. He wins with excellent, quick footwork at the line and in space. He’s more quick than fast. Also, in saying that, it has to be mentioned that he is plenty quick to win in the NFL. While it’s not a huge part of his game (only 16.1% of his 2021 target volume), he can win on vertical routes. He flashes the ability to stack corners on verticals from the slot easily. Smith-Njigba was ninth in yards per route run on deep targets, tied for first In PFF deep receiving grade, and second in passer rating when targeted on routes 20-plus yards in 2021 (minimum 15 deep targets). Smith-Njigba could be an immediate target hog in the NFL. He will be an immediate asset to the run game. He’s a tenacious blocker who engages well with defenders and anchors them. He won’t blow defenders out of their cleats, but he has the functional strength to hold running lanes or clear a path.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba got the draft capital that we wanted, but the landing spot has some dynasty GMs worried. How will he earn targets playing alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? Will Seattle abandon their love of heavy tight end sets (28th in the usage of three or more wide receiver sets last year)? Will Smith-Njigba be a full-time player? These concerns are all valid, but I’m not frightened at all. While Lockett remains a stellar wide receiver, he is almost 31 years old and can be cut next year with the team saving nearly ten million against the cap. Drafting wide receivers in dynasty is a bet on talent. Situations can change quickly. Smith-Njigba has talent that is worth investing heavily in. He could be the number two target in this passing offense as soon as this season, if not next year. He’s the 1.02 in 1QB leagues and a top-six selection in Superflex format rookie drafts.
Zay Flowers (WR – BAL)
Zay Flowers is absolutely an outside wide receiver in the NFL. He played 65.8% of his collegiate snaps on the perimeter, which should push even higher than that at the next level. Flowers has route running chops for days to get open on the boundary. He sets up corners with nuanced routes, explosive speed, multiple release packages, and an advanced understanding of how to get open. Flowers can win at all three levels. He’s lightning quick off the line to win short and a route tactician with intermediate and deep routes. Flowers understands how to use leverage and his fluid hips to get open on comebacks and outs. Flowers has no issue stacking corners on deep routes. He has the speed to get past them, and the smarts squeeze every inch of separation out of every route. Flowers is a twitch machine after the catch. His start and stop ability after securing the football is highlight reel worthy like Kadarius Toney. He’s a high-motor, tenacious player. Flowers’ zest for the game shows up in his blocking ferocity and yearning to claw tooth and nail for every inch of grass.
Baltimore added Flowers to what has become a loaded receiving depth chart. Lamar Jackson will now have Odell Beckham Jr., Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Mark Andrews flanking him. Baltimore’s bevy of pass catcher talent will dim Flowers’ year-one target projection, but Beckham Jr. is only on a one-year deal. If Baltimore doesn’t pick up Bateman’s fifth-year option, he can be an unrestricted free agent after the 2024 season. Flowers could be Jackson’s long-term WR1. The narrative around this Baltimore passing attack also needs to change when projecting their play volume. Greg Roman is gone. Everything we have seen from this offense with Jackson left with him. Todd Monken will change things, and those changes could be massive. In three of Monken’s last four seasons as an offensive mastermind, he’s ranked inside the top 12 (eighth, 11th, fourth) in neutral script pace. Over that span, he was also top-five in passing attempts twice. Flowers is a top-five selection in 1QB formats and a top-ten pick in Superflex rookie drafts.
Marvin Mims (WR – DEN)
Marvin Mims is a smooth run after the catch field chewer. His long, striding open field speed sneaks up on corners. He transitions from receiver to runner well. His fluid hips serve him well with subtle direction changes on posts and working underneath with stop routes and quick outs. Mims was tasked with a limited route tree at Oklahoma, with stops, screens, crossers, and posts making up most of his repertoire. Miims should be utilized as a slot option in the NFL from the outset. His best reps come inside against off-coverage, where he can win with his speed and after the catch ability. He looks clunky when saddled with go routes and double moves on the outside. Corners that can run with him have no problem staying in his back pocket. He routinely leaves corners unstacked on the perimeter, which leads to problems at the catch point. Mims can beat man or press coverage with speed if the opposing corner isn’t up to the foot race. Mims isn’t a 50/50 ball dominator, but his strong vertical jump (89th percentile) shows up when asked to high-point balls. He also flashes impressive body control on these throws and near the boundary.
Sean Payton traded up in the second round to get his guy, Marvin Mims. Mims could be a part-time player this season, with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick filling out three-wide sets. He may beat out Patrick in camp for the final starting spot. Patrick can be cut after this year, saving the Broncos nearly 11 million against the cap. The current coaching staff has no allegiances to Patrick, so Mims starting in Week 1 wouldn’t be a shock. Mims is a borderline first-round pick, but in many drafts, he’ll still be available in the early second round.
Puka Nacua (WR – BYU)
Puka Nacua might not get the hype of some of his prospect brethren because he attended BYU, but he deserves all the praise. Nacua ranked second and sixth in yards per route run over his final two collegiate seasons (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). He flashes good footwork and a varied release package at the line of scrimmage. Nucua also adds subtle nuances to his routes with pacing in his routes and head fakes. He’s strong after the catch. While he’s not a jitterbug, he’s tough to bring down with the ball in his hands because of his physicality and vision in traffic. He is a magician near the boundary as his film is littered with tough grabs near the sideline with impressive footwork. Those strong hands have also served him well in contested situations. He ranked 17th in contested catch rate in 2021 (minimum ten contested targets per PFF). BYU tried to get the ball in Nucua’s hands in any way possible. He was utilized on jet sweets and the ground in 2022 as the fifth-leading rusher on the team, with 8.4 yards per carry and five rushing scores. Nucaua has that dog in him.
My man crush on Puka Nacua remains strong. Yes, I know he fell to the fifth round before the Rams selected him, but the wide receiver depth chart after Cooper Kupp is putrid. Los Angeles only has Ben Skowronek, Van Jefferson, Lance McCutcheon, Tutu Atwell, and Austin Trammell to compete with Nacua for starting reps in Week 1. Sean McVay stated that when he called Nacua to tell him they were selecting him in the draft, he loved his versatility. Do I smell a possible Bob Woods role for Nacua with the Rams? You bet I do. Nacua’s 9.2 yards per carry and 357 rushing yards at BYU scream that the jet sweeps that the former Ram received could become a part of this offense again with Nacua. Nacua won’t cost much in rookie drafts as he consistently falls to the fourth round or later. It wouldn’t shock me to learn that he will go undrafted in smaller dynasty leagues. Nacua could be the diamond in the rough of this class. I’m trading into every rookie draft late to select him that I can.
A.T. Perry (WR – NO)
A.T. Perry understands leverage and route running well overall but needs to continue polishing his routes. He utilizes his size and a quick first step well on slants with a good feel versus zone. His fluid hips help him snap off routes at the top of his stem with average foot speed. His shortcomings in short-area agility show up on comebacks and curls and selling a vertical push. Perry isn’t as physical as his size or frame would lead anyone to believe. He’s not a strong YAC producer, with only 3.1 yards after the catch per reception during his collegiate career. He never ranked higher than 60th in missed tackles forced among wide receivers (minimum 50 targets). Perry does have a quick first step, though, transitioning into a runner after the reception, so while he doesn’t break tackles, he can pick up extra yards and extend plays in space. He can be pushed off his routes and have issues with physical corners that get can into his body. Perry lacks a second gear to stack corners on nine routes easily. Add in that he only secured 40% of his contested opportunities in college, and we’re left with a “prototypical X receiver” type who should be utilized in the intermediate areas of the field. Perry profiles as a chain-moving outside receiver that can beat zone and man coverage, but he shouldn’t be asked to stretch the field often on go routes. His size and skill set are more conducive to success via corner and post routes. Perry dealt with drops at Wake Forest with a 10.4% drop rate. This could be related to technique or his 39th percentile hand size. Only time will tell if NFL coaching can clean this up some or if it lingers at the next level.
I was shocked that Perry was on the board in the sixth round of the NFL Draft. The Saints made sure he didn’t sit out there any longer. Perry’s path to playing time could be easier than it appears at first glance. Chris Olave is locked into a starting role and should lead the team in targets, but after him, things get dicey quickly in the Big Easy. It’s still possible that we never see a healthy version of Michael Thomas ever again. Rashid Shaheed played well in a small sample last year, but he is also a free agent after this season. Keith Kirkwood, Tre’Quan Smith, and Bryan Edwards are his only remaining competition for snaps if Thomas can’t go. Perry could be a Week 1 starter if not crack the starting lineup at some point in 2023. Depending on how the rookie draft is unfolding, I will start considering him in the late third round with the knowledge that he likely drops into the fourth round. Stash him on your taxi squads. He could be the Saints’ latest late-round find that bursts onto the NFL scene seemingly out of nowhere.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
Kincaid has special movement skills. He looks fluid through his routes with a quick snap at the top of his stem. Kincaid has excellent body control with above-the-rim skills. He is exceptional at high-pointing the ball, which will serve him well in the red zone in the NFL. Kincaid can win in line, in the slot, and on the perimeter. He has early and late separation skills that allow him to be flexed out to the boundary, even against man coverage. Last year Kincaid was 13th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets). He is a tackle-breaking steamroller in the open field. I’m not prone to comping rookie tight ends to future Hall of Famers, but Kincaid reminds me of Travis Kelce on film. His combination of route running, speed, and RAC ability evokes Kelce’s highlight reels in my head. He’s also a field-stretching weapon that can win vertically on the perimeter and down the seam. Kincaid was fifth in PFF deep receiving grade and 13th in deep yards per route run among tight ends last year (minimum five deep targets). The biggest area of improvement for Kincaid is in the blocking department. He is religiously turned into a pretzel in pass protection. His after-the-catch nastiness displays the necessary play strength for Kincaid to grow as a blocker. His first punch is decent, but pass rushers have no issues standing him up and blowing him off his mark. Improvements in technique in the NFL can allow him to become a serviceable blocker, at least.
This sounds hyperbolic, but the Buffalo Bills gave Josh Allen his Travis Kelce. Kincaid has been a man crush of mine since I started diving through his metrics and film. Looking at the Bills’ tight-end depth chart could cause concern for dynasty GMs, with Dawson Knox having sizable guarantees until 2025. Knox and Kincaid can coexist in this offense as they will play different roles. Over the last two years, Knox has played 42-47.2% of his snaps in the slot, which will decrease dramatically with Kincaid in town. Knox was in line for 31.3-37.6% of his snaps during that stretch, which should bump higher. Knox has been a top-shelf run blocker and serviceable pass protector ranking eighth and 35th in PFF run and pass blocking grades last year (minimum 100 blocking snaps per PFF). Knox can be their new 12-personnel tight end, with Kincaid assuming primary passing down responsibilities in the slot. While Knox has been fantasy relevant since 2021, he’s never been a heavy target earner. He’s never sniffed a 14% target share or a target-per-route run rate above 17% as a full-time player. Kincaid should have no issues earning targets early, as the Bills didn’t have a player with more than a 25% target per route run rate that logged at least a 23% route run rate outside of Stefon Diggs. Kincaid should eat as the Bills’ big slot. Last year among all collegiate wide receivers and tight ends with at least 20 slot targets, he was second in PFF receiving grade from the slot. If we pin this down to tight ends, Kincaid ranked third in slot yards per route run (per PFF). Kincaid should be viewed as a first-round wide receiver because that’s what Buffalo views him as. After the run on wide receivers in the first round of this year’s draft, Buffalo played chess instead of checkers by selecting the “tight end” Kincaid. Kincaid is a first-round rookie draft pick that should come off the board immediately after the top four wide receivers.
Sam LaPorta (TE – DET)
Laporta will make his mark as a receiver in the NFL. Blocking will be a skill he must continue honing in the NFL. If Laporta hits his ceiling in the NFL, it will be because of his pass-game abilities and not his run-blocking chops. Laporta runs routes like a wide receiver. He’s smooth in and out of his breaks with surprising foot quickness. Laporta played 20.2% of his snaps as a boundary receiver in 2022. He proved up to the task by leading all FBS tight ends in man coverage targets. He was also second in PFF receiving grade and third in yards per route run against man coverage (minimum ten man coverage targets). He’s also adept at finding the soft spots in zone coverage. He puts some impressive work after the catch on film. His start/stop ability and change of direction skills are noticeable. He has good acceleration after the catch with jukes, spin moves, and stiff arms to make a defensive back’s job of getting him to the ground tough. He ranked second in missed tackles forced and third in YAC among tight ends last year.
Sammy Ballgame, BABY! Laporta lands in Detroit and should be immediately installed as the Day 1 starter for the Lions. With only Brock Wright, Shane Zylstra, James Mitchell, and Derrick Deese behind him on the depth chart, he should have no trouble carving out a full-time role. Laporta will earn his NFL paychecks by catching passes and breaking tackles weekly. In each of the last two seasons, he has ranked inside the top 20 in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run among FBS tight ends (minimum 20 targets per PFF). Last season Laporta played 20.2% of his snaps as a perimeter receiver. Laporta should be the number three option in the passing game this season, soaking up targets from Jared Goff. He has risen to the ranking of TE2 in this class in my ranks. LaPorta is a borderline first-round pick in Superflex. He’ll be gone inside the top 15 picks in any draft I’m in.
Tucker Kraft (TE – GB)
Kraft is built like a Marvel superhero. With a strong set of tree trunk legs married to a powerful upper body, Kraft imposes his will in multiple phases of the game. In the run game, he’s been a solid to above-average blocker during his entire collegiate career. Kraft has the anchor and leg drive to set the edge, wall off runs, or clear a path for his back. In 2022, Kraft was 28th in gap run-blocking grade among 504 FBS and FCS tight ends with at least 100 run-blocking snaps. Kraft is a bulldozer in the open field. He has the raw speed to threaten down the seam with the ability to house a deep pass due to his tackle-breaking. Kraft, with momentum built up, is a scary situation. He blows through arm tackles and pushes around corners attempting to wrap him up. Kraft also has a little shimmy to his game, as he can juke linebackers after the catch and leave them in the dust. Kraft has the quick hips and explosion off the line to get both early and late separation on routes. He also has exceptional body control in the air adding to his 73rd-percentile catch radius. His arrogant hands on film are reflected in his 58.8% contested target catch rate in college. Kraft flashes impressive back-shoulder catches regularly on film.
The Packers doubled up on tight ends in the NFL Draft by selecting Luke Musgrave in the second round before sending in the card for Kraft in the third round. Kraft might hail from a small school, but he has big-time talent. Outside of him and Musgrave, the Packers only have Josiah Deguara, Tyler Davis, Nick Guggemos, Austin Allen, and Cameron McDonald in the tight end room. Kraft arguably has this bunch’s most complete skill set with scintillating receiving ability. It wouldn’t shock me to see Kraft dominating snaps from the outset. He’s a top 24 player in this class in my rankings. I’ll draft him near the end of the second round, even in non-tight-end premium formats.
DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Rankings
