Grab your lucky rabbit’s feet. Cross your fingers, your toes, and any other appendages. We need all the luck we can get at this point. Wrap all your fantasy players in bubble wrap.
Injury armageddon is upon us. Daily, all of our star players are dropping like flies. From Cooper Kupp to now Austin Ekeler. No one is safe. We’ll have to dig deep while focusing on matchups and the waiver wire to get through this early-season hell.
But we will get through it together!
After being sidelined with illness in Week 1, I’m back to pen my weekly love letter for Fantasy Football. Let’s get to it. I love you all, and let’s have ourselves a week.
Fantasy Football Primer
Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- ATL -1.5, O/U 40
- Packers vs. Falcons Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- The Packers picked up the pace in Week 1 (22nd in neutral pace) compared to the Aaron Rodgers era. They morphed from a pass-centric offense to a run-heavy one with Jordan Love. Green Bay was fifth in neutral script rushing rate in Week 1.
- There are some new wrinkles for the Falcons this season, but mostly, this is the same old Arthur Smith. Atlanta was 16th in neutral pace, which was nice, but they remained top-five in neutral rushing rate (fourth). Smith did deploy no-huddle at the 13th-highest rate in Week 1.
Jordan Love: Love finished as the QB3 in fantasy as the rest of the position fell apart in Week 1. Love did so on the strength of three passing touchdowns as one of only three quarterbacks to do so. His other deeper metrics are more concerning. Love was 20th in passing grade and 30th in adjusted completion rate despite ranking third-best in yards per attempt. I didn’t anticipate tossing cold water on Packers fans after Week 1, but here we are. The Falcons will be a good litmus test for where he is as a player and passer in Week 2. Atlanta is fresh off dismantling Bryce Young and the Panthers. After Week 1, the Falcons have allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt and fifth-lowest adjusted completion rate. Those numbers could be noisy, but they are impressive nonetheless. Atlanta finishing with the fifth-highest pressure rate last week should frighten Love. The sample size for Love against pressure over the last two seasons is miniscule, but it doesn’t paint a pretty picture. Love has been pressured on ten dropbacks since 2022, completing only 42.8% of his passes with putrid passing grades. Love is an uninspiring QB2 this week.
Desmond Ridder: Ridder picked up right where he left off in 2022 with replaceable quarterback play. Ridder finished Week 1 with the ninth-lowest passing grade. Before every Falcons fan rolls their eyes while thinking of Ridder’s 94.1% adjusted completion rate, understand that he finished with THE lowest aDOT (3.2) of any quarterback in the NFL in Week 1. Ridder was simply tossing checkdowns all day. Despite finishing with the lowest pass attempts for any quarterback (18) starting in Week 1, he ranked seventh in screen passing attempts (five), which accounted for 22.7% of his passing attempts (second-highest). Ridder is a basement-level QB2 in Week 2, facing off against a Packers pass defense that held Justin Fields to 5.8 yards per attempt and a 78.2 passer rating last week.
Aaron Jones: Jones hasn’t practiced all week. I doubt he plays this Sunday. I’ll keep it short and sweet about Jones. Depending on your lineup options, if he plays, I would treat him like a full go and play him. I doubt that happens, but it has to be said.
A.J. Dillon: Dillon is shaping up as the Packers lead back for Week 2. Last week, he played 48% of the snaps with 15 touches for a disappointing 36 total yards. Dillon has been a back on the decline for a few years now. His yards after contact per attempt have dropped every year he has been in the NFL. If you think that’s ugly, then don’t look at his breakaway run rates. Over the past two seasons, he has ranked ninth and fifth worst in this metric (minimum 100 rushing attempts). Luckily for Dillon, last week, Atlanta had the seventh-lowest stuff rate while allowing the tenth-highest yards after contact per attempt. If Jones is out, fire up Dillon as an RB2. If Jones is active, Dillon remains an RB3/4.
|Player||Rushing attempts||Targets||Routes||RZ opportunities|
Bijan Robinson: Robinson looked amazing in his first NFL game. The hype was well deserved. He played 63% of the snaps, finishing with 16 touches and 83 total yards. Robinson also logged 3.1 yards after contact per attempt. He finished Week 1 with the highest receiving grade and the 13th-highest yards per route run (minimum three targets). The problem that plagued Robinson that sadly is frustrating for every Falcon is that Arthur Smith remains the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Robinson has to deal with Smith’s infatuation for Allgeier and his idiotic deployment of every skill player in this offense. Allgeier had more rushing attempts and red zone opportunities than the talented rookie. That likely won’t be the case weekly, but the fact that I even have to type it out is maddening. Robinson should have his way with a Packers defense that allowed the seventh-lowest stuff rate in Week 1. Last year, Green Bay allowed the fifth-highest explosive run rate, held opponents to the third-lowest stuff rate, and gave up the tenth-highest rushing success rate on zone runs (Robinson 70% zone in Week 1). Despite Smith’s moronic tendencies, Robinson remains an RB1.
Tyler Allgeier: Allgeir was the RB4 in fantasy in Week 1 on the back of his two-touchdown performance. It’s difficult to stomach things Arthur Smith does weekly, but I won’t shade Allgeier in saying that. He’s an incredibly talented player in his own right. Last year, he ranked fifth in yards after contact per attempt, 16th in breakaway rate, and third in elusive rating (minimum 100 rushing attempts). He picked up immediately where he left off last season, ranking second in explosive run rate and fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt in Week 1. He amassed 18 touches and 94 total yards in Week 1 while playing 56% of the snaps. Allgeier is a weekly RB3 that carries RB2 upside if his workload stays consistent in the 12-15 touch range.
Christian Watson: Watson missed Wednesday & Thursday’s practices before getting in a “limited session” on Friday. He’s been listed as questionable. Much like with Aaron Jones this feels like the Packers getting cute with the injury designations. I consider Watson much closer to doubtful and likely out again this week. If he is active, I’d expect him to be on a pitch count. If he’s active I’m sitting him.
Jayden Reed: Reed is a middling flex play. He wasn’t even a full-time player in Week 1, playing 53% of the snaps with a 74% route participation clip. Add on top that the Packers were a run-heavy affair, and the picture gets uglier. Reed’s 18.5% target share looks palatable until you realize that it amounted to only five targets. The same can be said for his 3.00 yards per route run, but that star dims when you see that he only ran 16 routes. The best thing Reed has going for him is his matchup with Dee Alford in the slot this week. Last week, Reed ran from the slot on 60% of his routes. Last year, Alford allowed a 68.9% catch rate and 105.5 passer rating in coverage as the Falcons allowed the sixth-most receiving yards per game and fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers.
Romeo Doubs: Doubs was also not a full-time player in Week 1. It’s debatable whether that was the plan all along for his usage to open to the season or if it was the result of him dealing with a hamstring injury during the week. Doubs played only 48% of the snaps with an 18.5% target share (five targets). He secured two touchdowns on top of his 1.53 yards per route run (26 receiving yards). If you’re picking one Packers wide receiver to trust in lineups in Week 2, it’s Reed and not Doubs. Doubs will run about 80% of his routes on the perimeter against A.J. Terrell and Tre Flowers, who combined to allow only a 50% catch rate and 39 receiving yards in Week 1. Doubs is a low-end flex play.
Drake London: I just can’t. The Falcons are wasting one of the best young wide receivers in the game. There’s no other way around it. London played 90% of the snaps in Week 1 and DIDN’T DRAW A SINGLE TARGET! How? Seriously. Arthur Smith, what in the hell are you doing? Whether you’re talking Fantasy or real-life football, this makes zero sense. Smith can clap back all he wants about Fantasy Football, but you can’t defend this foolishness. Ok, I’m done ranting. London could be headed for another letdown week if Jaire Alexander shadows him. Last year, Alexander shadowed three times following wide receivers on 44-69% of their routes, allowing a total of four receptions, 67 receiving yards, and a touchdown. If Alexander doesn’t follow London, he’ll run about 90% of his routes against Alexander and Rasul Douglas, who combined to allow a 50% catch rate (56.3 passer rating) and only 15 receiving yards in Week 1. London is a scary WR3.
Luke Musgrave: This is the part of the program where I pile my plate up with sauteed crow. I was not high on Musgrave as a prospect and stand by the process, but Musgrave looked good in Week 1. He had a 14.8% target share, 2.08 yards per route run, and 85% route participation (81% of snaps played). Musgrave had an insane 18.0 aDOT and could have had a monster day if he and Jordan Love had been on the same page. Musgrave is a low-end TE1 against a Falcons defense that allowed the 12th-highest yards per reception, seventh-most receiving yards, and sixth-most receptions to tight ends in 2022.
Kyle Pitts: Pitts was a full-time player, but like every other receiving threat in this offense outside of Bijan Robinson, he was held back by Desmond Ridder. Pitts finished with only three targets (16.6% target share) and 44 receiving yards despite finishing with a 90% route participation and 2.2 yards per route run. Pitts was utilized in the slot or out wide on 81.8% of his snaps. Pitts is a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 against a Packers’ defense that allowed the third-lowest yards per reception and second-fewest receiving yards to the position last year. The one ray of hope is that Green Bay did allow the ninth-most receiving touchdowns (tied) to the position.
MIN vs. PHI | GB vs. ATL | LV vs. BUF | BAL vs. CIN | SEA vs. DET | LAC vs. TEN | CHI vs. TB | KC vs. JAC | IND vs. HOU | SF vs. LAR | NYG vs. ARI | NYJ vs. DAL | WAS vs. DEN | MIA vs. NE | NO vs. CAR | CLE vs. PIT
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills
- BUF 8, O/U 47
- Raiders vs. Bills Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Nothing is surprising about what Las Vegas did in Week 1. After converting to a slow run-based offense to close last season, they continued the trend to open 2023. Las Vegas had the tenth-slowest pace while rolling out the seventh-highest neutral rushing rate.
- Ken Dorsey made his presence known in Week 1 as Buffalo’s pace was molasses. Buffalo had the sixth-slowest neutral script pace while still throwing at a top-ten clip (sixth in neutral passing rate in Week 1).
Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo had a very “Garoppolo-like” Week 1 performance. He had an efficient outing, ranking third in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and eighth in adjusted completion rate with zero turnover-worthy plays. That left him as the QB12 in fantasy for the week, as many heavy hitters had dumpster-fire outings. Buffalo was their usual stout pass defense selves in Week 1 with the caveat that they got to feast on Zach Wilson‘s check-down party all night. Buffalo permitted only 6.3 yards per attempt and a 77.8 passer rating. Last year, they allowed the fifth-lowest yards per attempt and fourth-lowest passer rating. Buffalo rolled out zone coverage in Week 1 on 55-56% of their corner’s snaps. I’ll give the context that, yes, this was on a different team with a MUCH different offensive system, but Garoppolo was seventh in yards per attempt and tenth in passer rating against zone coverage. He also finished 18th in fantasy points per dropback against zone, so don’t expect anything but another game-manager-esque QB2 performance from Garoppolo in Week 2.
Josh Allen: Last week was arguably Allen’s worst performance of his career. Since 2021, it was only his fourth game with a passer rating below 65.0 and the third game of his career with three interceptions. At times, Allen made head-scratching throw after head-scratching throw with only green jerseys around. He looked like a player trying to force a big play when the plan of attack should have been to take what the defense was giving him. In Week 1, Patrick Graham changed the flavor of the defensive ice cream. Last year, this secondary deployed man coverage on 36-41% of their coverage snaps. That plan was tossed in the dumpster so far for 2023, as the Raiders operated in zone coverage on 76% of their snaps in Week 1. In doing so, they held Russell Wilson to 177 passing yards with 5.2 yards per attempt (ninth-lowest), as he also had the third-highest adjusted completion rate for the week. This could be another rough week for Allen against a zone-centric defense. Last year, Allen was 27th in adjusted completion, 16th in passer rating, and 15th in CPOE on deep throws against zone coverage. Allen had a 10:10 passing touchdown to interception ratio against zone (third-most interceptions) in 2022. Allen can overcome any rough passing day with a strong rushing outing for fantasy purposes, so continue to start him as a locked-in strong QB1. Last year, Allen had the fourth-most scrambles and second-most rushing yards against zone coverage among quarterbacks.
Josh Jacobs: Jacobs remains the Raiders’ unquestioned workhorse after Week 1. He played 80% of the snaps, finishing with 21 touches and 71 total yards. Jacobs didn’t hit the ground running, though. He had only 2.0 yards after contact per attempt in his first game, but his offensive line was partially to blame for his woes. They did him zero favors with the sixth-lowest yards before contact per attempt among 33 qualifying running backs. If Jacobs’ offensive line can pull it together in Week 2, he’s set up for a nice bounceback game. In Week 1, 84% of his runs came on gap scheme plays. The Bills allowed an insane 10.6 yards per carry against gap runs, but their woes against this run type are just an isolated one-game snippet. Last year, Buffalo allowed the 13th-highest yards per carry (4.8) and gap run success rate to opposing backs. Jacobs is a locked-in high-end RB1.
James Cook: The offseason rumors are true. Cook is the Bills’ new workhorse running back. Against the Jets, he played 59% of the snaps with 16 touches and 63 total yards. He also amassed a 15.3% target share (six targets). Among 32 qualifying running backs, he ranks seventh in yards after contact per attempt and 11th in elusive rating. Sadly, the Raiders aren’t the best matchup for Cook on the ground. In Week 1, 91% of Cook’s runs came on gap scheme plays. The Raiders ranked 19th in yards per carry allowed to gap runs despite allowing the seventh-highest gap run success rate. In Week 1, they allowed only 3.6 yards per carry to gap runs. Cook can still have a strong day through the air, which could make up for any shortcomings as a rusher. Last season, Las Vegas allowed the fourth-most receptions, the most receiving yards, and the fourth-highest yards per reception to running backs. Cook is an RB2 with RB1 upside if Allen checks down to him consistently this week.
Damien Harris: Harris shouldn’t come anywhere near your fantasy lineup. He only played 13% of the snaps in Week 1 with three touches and 19 total yards.
Davante Adams: Another Week 1 is in the bag for Adams. It’s another game of Adams being a target hog. He handled a 34.6% target share and 51.9% air yard share in Week 1. Adams didn’t show any falloff last season, ranking eighth in open score, second in receiving grade, and fifth in yards per route run. After one game, it doesn’t look like Father Time is catching Adams in 2023, either. Adams has a tough task against a talented Bills secondary this week, but make no mistake. He will still get open. Adams will run about 68% of his routes against Tre’Davious White (54.8% catch rate and 73.2 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Christian Benford (61.8% catch rate and 89.1 passer rating allowed in 2022). The Bills deployed zone coverage on 54-55% of their corners’ snaps last year, and after Week 1, they are almost in line with that. Against zone coverage last year, Adams ranked second in target share, sixth in TPRR, and eighth in yards per route run (minimum 100 routes per Fantasy Points Data). Adams is a volume WR1/high-end WR2.
Jakobi Meyers: Meyers has been ruled out (concussion protocol).
Stefon Diggs: Diggs remains Allen’s undisputed go-to alpha. In Week 1, Diggs saw a 33.3% target share and 42.7% air yard share. He currently sits at 14th in receiving grade and 18th in yards per route run among wide receivers (minimum five targets). Diggs saw 66.7% of Allen’s end zone targets in Week 1. Diggs should be peppered with targets if the Raiders go zone-heavy against Allen this week. Last year against zone, he ranked 12th in target share and sixth in yards per route run (minimum 100 routes against zone). Diggs will run about 65% of his routes against Marcus Peters (84.4% catch rate and 114.7 passer rating allowed in zone in 2022) and Jakorian Bennett (five targets defended in his career, 80% catch rate and 99.2 passer rating allowed). Diggs is a WR1.
Gabe Davis: We know who Davis is at this juncture. He’s a field stretcher who can pop off with massive games, but he’s not a high-end target share earner. Davis had a 10.2% target share and 22.1% air yard share (17.5 aDOT) in Week 1. Last year, against zone coverage, Davis had a 19.4% target share, 19% TPRR, and 1.70 yards per route run. Don’t rule out Davis having a big game against a secondary that gave up the most deep passing touchdowns and the 12th-highest passer rating on deep shots last year. Davis will run about 89% of his routes against Peters and Bennett as a WR3.
Raiders TEs: There’s no way Austin Hooper or Michael Mayer are in consideration for any fantasy lineup in Week 2. Hooper only saw one target last week with a 61.5% route participation rate. Mayer only ran nine routes and failed to draw any targets. Buffalo allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends last year.
Dalton Kincaid: Kincaid was a full-time player out the gate with an 80% snap share and 95% route participation. Kincaid only saw a 9.7% target share with a minuscule 1.5 aDOT while playing 59% of his snaps from the slot. The playing time is great, but until his target share separates from Knox or he gets some high-value usage in the red zone, he’s a TE2 dart throw. Last year, Las Vegas allowed the seventh-highest catch rate and 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Dawson Knox: Buffalo has fallen in love with multiple tight end sets, as Knox had a 92% route participation while playing 84% of the snaps. He ran from the slot on 64% of his plays with an identical 9.7% target share to Kincaid. Knox at least had a 7.3 aDOT but also zero high-leverage usage. Knox is also a TE2 in a favorable matchup.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
- CIN -3, O/U 46.5
- Ravens vs. Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Well, we are still waiting to see this new-look Baltimore offense. Last week, the Ravens had the eighth-slowest offense in neutral situations while mustering the eighth-highest neutral rushing rate. This isn’t the offense we were promised.
- Cincinnati also closely resembled their 2022 form in terms of play volume and scheme. They were 14th in neutral script pace and 12th in neutral passing rate last week.
Lamar Jackson: Jackson operated at a meh level in Week 1 in a strange offense. Jackson was 16th in passing grade, sixth in yards per attempt, and second in adjusted completion rate. The last two figures sound great, huh? His incredibly high completion rate can be traced to his comical 5.1 aDOT (fifth-lowest). Much of this is related to the Ravens’ psychotic use of the screen game in Week 1. Jackson utilized screens on 26.7% of his dropbacks in Week 1. To put that figure in context, only P.J. Walker (minimum 50 dropbacks) had a screen rate above 16.8% last season. I don’t want to overreact to a one-game sample, but there’s plenty to sift through and wonder why. Jackson remains a QB1 because of his rushing ability, but this is a tough matchup. In his last two games against the Bengals, they have had his number. He completed only 53.9% of his passes with 5.2 yards per attempt. Last season, Cincinnati allowed the tenth-lowest yards per attempt, the lowest passer rating, and the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow: I had to refresh Burrow’s stat page a few times to make sure I was seeing things right. Burrow finished Week 1 with a 45.2 PFF passing grade. You have to go all the way back to his rookie season to find any game (only one) with a lower passing grade. Burrow could only muster 2.6 yards per attempt and a 60.7% adjusted completion rate. To say this level of play is uncharacteristic of Burrow would be an understatement. Baltimore utilized zone on about half of their plays in Week 1. Last year, Burrow was sixth in passer rating and had the most passing touchdowns against zone coverage. He was also seventh in adjusted completion rate against the coverage type but was 23rd in first read rate, so expect him to spread the ball around some this week. Burrow remains a QB1.
Gus Edwards: Edwards played 23% of the snaps in Week 1, finishing with eight carries and 32 rushing yards. He was a zero in the passing game, which shouldn’t be a surprise. This backfield looks like a mess without J.K. Dobbins going forward. Edwards and Hill probably begin by splitting the work until (hopefully) one of them separates themselves. Edwards is a touchdown-dependent flex. In Week 1, 62% of his runs came on zone concept plays. We’ll see if that holds true all season, but for now, it’s our only data point in a new system. Last year, Cincinnati was stout against the run, allowing the sixth-lowest explosive run rate and (tied) the lowest missed tackles allowed per attempt. The interesting wrinkle is that they did allow the 12th-highest yards per carry to zone runs.
Justice Hill: Hill scored twice as he soaked up all the red zone work, but outside of those touchdowns, he was putrid in Week 1. He turned his eight carries into nine rushing yards. He only managed 1.1 yards after contact per attempt and broke only one tackle in Week 1. Better days are ahead for a player who posted 3.4 yards after contact per attempt or higher in two of his last three seasons. Week 2 might not be pretty for him, though, if his Week 1 usage continues. Hill was utilized on gap runs on 75% of his Week 1 carries. Last year, Cincinnati allowed the second-lowest yards per carry to gap runs. Hill is in the touchdown or bust flex category with Edwards.
Joe Mixon: Mixon wasn’t a bell-cow in Week 1, but he maintained his workhorse role for Cincinnati, playing 62% of the snaps with 16 touches and 73 total yards. Mixon drew a 16.1% target share while handling a 51.6% route participation. We’ll see if this continues all season, but Mixon showed more giddy-up in his step in Week 1 than we saw in 2022. He had 4.38 yards after contact per attempt and an 82.2 elusive rating, better than last season (2.61, 31.3). Last season, Baltimore allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate with the eighth-lowest missed tackles allowed rate. They also gave up the sixth-lowest yards per carry to zone runs (Mixon 53% zone in Week 1). Baltimore allowed 3.2 yards per carry and had the 13th-highest stuff rate in Week 1. Mixon can still do damage through the air against Baltimore if his rushing is kept in check. Last year, the Ravens allowed the ninth-highest yards per reception to running backs and the sixth-most receiving yards. Mixon is a low-end RB1/high-end RB2.
Zay Flowers: Flowers loudly announced his arrival to the NFL in Week 1. He soaked up an insane 45.5% target share with a 37% TPRR and 2.89 yards per route run. Flowers was the WR16 in Fantasy in Week 1. Flowers led all wide receivers in slot routes as he ran from the inside on 43% of his snaps. This distinction is pivotal for Week 2. Flowers will run about half his routes against Mike Hilton (72% catch rate and 99.3 passer rating allowed in 2022 in slot coverage). Last year, the Bengals allowed the tenth-most slot receiving yards per game despite facing the eighth-fewest slot targets per game. Flowers is a WR2/3.
Odell Beckham Jr.: Beckham Jr. looked about like I expected in Week 1 as a trusted, middling veteran receiving option. He saw a 13.6% target share (39.8% air yard share) with 1.61 yards per route run. Beckham will run about 97% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (41.9% catch rate and 58.2 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Cam Taylor-Britt (54.7% catch rate and 88.3 passer rating allowed in 2022). Beckham could see shadow coverage from Awuzie, who didn’t shadow last year but did so six times in 2021, following receivers on 59-78% of their routes. He held four of those six receivers below 50 receiving yards in that sample. Beckham is a WR4/5.
Rashod Bateman: Bateman wasn’t a full-time player in Week 1. While I’m encouraged by his 2.06 yards per route run in the first game, you can’t put him into a lineup yet. He only saw a 13.6% target share and 56.6% route per dropback rate. Bateman is a sit in all formats.
Ja’Marr Chase: The entire Bengals offense flopped in Week 1. Understand it and forget it. Chase still saw a 28.1% target share and 37.3% air yard share. He will be fine. Chase remains the player that you were willing to draft second overall. Deep breath and start him. Chase ranked eighth in target share and 14th in TPRR among wide receivers last season against zone coverage. He was only 44th in yards per route run, though (1.85). Chase is a WR1. He will run about 75% of his routes against Brandon Stephens (60% catch rate and 92.3 passer rating allowed in 2022) and Ronald Darby (50% catch rate and 66.9 passer rating allowed in 2022).
Tee Higgins: Higgins finished with a big fat zero in the box score for Week 1 despite drawing a 25% target share and 59.3% air yard share. Again people. Deep breath. It is one week of football. Higgins remains a WR2, although he likely takes a backseat to Chase in this matchup if the Ravens continue to utilize zone on about 50% of their coverage snaps. Last year, Higgins was a smidge more efficient on a per route basis (1.87 YPRR vs. Chase’s 1.85), but his target share against zone was only 15.6% versus Chase’s 25.8%. Higgins remains a WR2 in this matchup who will run about 88% of his routes against Stephens and Darby.
Tyler Boyd: Boyd could be headed toward one of his random big games of the season in Week 2. The Week 1 numbers for him were ugly, but that’s a trend with every Bengals’ pass catcher. Boyd had a 9.4% target share with a 10% TPRR and 0.32 YPRR. Last year, against zone coverage, he logged an 11.8% target share, 14% TPRR, and 1.45 YPRR. Baltimore was a turnstile against the slot last year, as they allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Boyd will run nearly every route against Ar’Darius Washington (82.3% catch rate and 92.4 passer rating allowed in his career). Boyd is a WR3/4 with WR2 upside this week.
#Ravens TE Mark Andrews (quad) was a full participant today, an indication that — while he is questionable — the plan is for him to play.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 15, 2023
Mark Andrews: Andrews practiced on a limited basis on Wednesday and Thursday before logging a full practice on Friday. The expectation is he will suit up this week. With that said, treat Andrews as a full go. If he plays, you play him in fantasy. Cincinnati allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most receptions to tight ends last year. They were 18th in fantasy points allowed to the position, which can be traced to the fact that they gave up only three touchdowns, but the other indicators are there to point to this as an above-average matchup for Andrews. In 2020 and 2021, under Lou Anarumo’s watch, Cincinnati allowed the seventh and sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends.
Irv Smith Jr.: Smith Jr. is a forgettable TE2 this week. Last week, he saw a 15.6% target share but could only muster a 64.7% route per team dropback rate and 0.77 yards per route run. Baltimore wasn’t friendly to tight ends last year. They held the position to the seventh-lowest receiving yards and fifth-lowest yards per reception.