This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. We look at MarShawn Lloyd and see how he will fit in with the Green Bay Packers.
Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Let’s dig in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
The Green Bay Packers have selected MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th pick of the NFL Draft.
A lot of NFL Draft and fantasy analysts regard Lloyd as a boom-or-bust RB prospect, with some attributes that could conceivably make him a star, and some attributes that could potentially short-circuit his professional career.
MarShawn Lloyd has a tantalizing combination of speed and power. He carries 220 pounds on a 5-8½-inch frame and ran a 4.46 at the combine, giving him a 93rd percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Lloyd has big-play speed and can break ankles with his sharp cuts. He runs with attitude and determination, fighting for extra yards and occasionally rattling the chinstraps of defenders. His compact frame helps him power through arm tackles.
The 23-year-old Lloyd averaged 7.1 yards per carry in his final college season, with nine rushing touchdowns on 116 carries.
One of the concerns with Lloyd is that he has a sparse résumé. He never had more than 116 carries in any of his collegiate seasons, and he averaged just 10.5 carries per game for USC last season. Lloyd doesn’t have much experience as a pass blocker or pass catcher either, with 34 receptions in his three years of college football. Lloyd also has some concerning ball-security issues, with five fumbles over the last two years.
In his first year with the Packers, Lloyd figures to be used lightly. The Packers signed Josh Jacobs in the offseason and will probably use him in something close to a workhorse capacity, and they re-signed A.J. Dillon to be Jacobs’ primary backup. Lloyd might have to serve a one-year apprenticeship before he gets any meaningful playing time.
In dynasty, I have MarShawn Lloyd ranked RB5 among the rookies and RB33 overall. In 1QB rookie drafts, Lloyd is likely to come off the board in the middle to latter part of the second round. In superflex rookie drafts, he’s likely to be selected in the top half of the third round.
Lloyd’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking in half-point PPR redraft leagues was RB59. Lloyd’s Underdog best-ball ADP before the draft was RB54. Since he could be buried on Green Bay’s RB depth chart in Year 1, I can rank Lloyd no higher than RB63 for redraft.
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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
MarShawn Lloyd (USC)
5086/220 | RAS: 8.57
Player Comparison: Rashard Mendenhall
It wouldn’t surprise me if MarShawn Lloyd turned out to be this class’ best running back. It also wouldn’t surprise me if he ended his career outside the top 10 in rushing yards. My final grade on him is more splitting-the-baby than a true stand.
What I love: Tantalizing combination of make-you-miss and power. Changes directions suddenly and returns to top gear in a few steps. Runs mean. Thick lower body is a loaded spring that snaps arm tackle attempts. A fighter who doesn’t quit on a run until the whistle blows, fighting for extra yards until the end. Good balance — ricochets away from off-angle attempts and keeps trucking. Big-play threat with 4.4 wheels. Shows adequate patience approaching the line of scrimmage and is emphatic once he makes his decision. Has a good sense for cutback lanes.
What I’m unsure about: Lloyd’s passing game utility is theoretical. When we spoke to him at the Senior Bowl, Lloyd mentioned he wanted to show evaluators his receiving ability because his collegiate offenses didn’t use him as much as a receiver. He caught only 34 balls over his three active seasons. Lloyd did show flashes of receiving skill on tape but he simply wasn’t used enough in this phase to make a referendum either way. Lloyd succeeded in his aim to impress as a receiver in Mobile, creating separation in one-on-ones and catching everything thrown his way. Then again, those were not game conditions. Additionally, Lloyd’s pass-blocking utility remains an unknown. He was rarely asked to do it in college — less than 100 reps over three seasons — and was hit-and-miss in the small sample.
Areas of concern: Lloyd only touched the ball 325 times in college despite spending four years on campus. He was never the bell cow. Lloyd’s freshman year at South Carolina in 2020 was lost to a torn ACL. He was eased back as the RB3 behind Kevin Harris and ZaQuandre White the next year. White missed four games due to a quad contusion in 2022. Last season, he missed one game with an undisclosed injury and then opted out of the bowl game. It’s hard to project him as a three-down back when he’s never been one before and has durability concerns. As a runner, Lloyd needs to be coached out of a bad habit of excessive outside bouncing hunting for explosive runs. Lloyd’s lateral agility and long speed are both strong. Because of that, his prerogative is to swing from the heels. But he too often turns down singles — the available yards in front of him — trying to hit dingers. He also fumbles far too frequently, with eight career fumbles over 360 carries. Lloyd must button up his ball security.
Final word: Lloyd’s evaluation has a wide band of outcomes. If he stays healthy in the NFL, improves his ball security, hones his behind-the-line instincts and becomes the receiving threat he has flashed in small samples, he’ll be an NFL difference-maker. The more likely outcome is that he settles in as a low-level starter or strong complementary back. But there’s also bust potential if health and ball security are persistent issues at the next level.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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