The Primer: Week 3 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders

• WAS -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Ashton Jeanty
• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Marcus Mariota (QB)

Last year, Marcus Mariota had substantial playing time in two games. He looked awesome in the limited action with 8.93 yards per attempt, a 136.4 passer rating, a 53.7% highly accurate throw rate, and an 87.8% catchable target rate. Mariota averaged eight rushing attempts and 45 rushing yards. His 0.95 fantasy points per dropback last season in those games would rank second this year behind only Lamar Jackson. Mariota could easily put up QB1 numbers this week against a Raiders’ pass defense that has allowed the tenth-most yards per attempt, the 14th-highest CPOE, and the seventh-most passing yards per game.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel is the WR8 in fantasy points per game. Samuel has a 25% target share, 1.66 yards per route run (60.5 receiving yards per game), and a 27.9% first-read share. He has only one rushing attempt this season, which he housed for a 19-yard score. Las Vegas utilizes zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (92.9%). Against zone, Samuel has seen his target share increase to 28.3% and his yards per route run climb to 1.91. Samuel is a strong play this week against a Raiders’ pass defense that has allowed the ninth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers (Samuel 85% slot). Darnay Holmes (83.3% catch rate and 117.4 passer rating allowed) will have to bring his A game if he hopes to slow down Samuel.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz is the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He has a 16.7% target share with 1.34 yards per route run and a 20.9% first-read share. He has spiked touchdowns in both games this season. Las Vegas utilizes zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (92.9%). Against zone, Ertz has seen his target share increase to 17.4% with 1.68 yards per route run and a 24% first-read share. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most yards per reception to tight ends. Ertz is a locked-in TE1.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

Through two games, Terry McLaurin is the WR59 in fantasy points per game. He has drawn an 18.1% target share with a 32.8% air-yard share with 0.96 yards per route run and a 27.9% first-read share. McLaurin’s -0.039 separation score and 7.8% route win rate are concerning, but his early-season rust could be explained in part by his contract holdout. Playing McLaurin is a leap of faith this week, but it could easily pay off. I’m not scared of the Raiders’ secondary. They have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers while ranking 15th in PPR points per target. McLaurin should tangle with Kyu Blu Kelly (66.7% catch rate and 130.9 passer rating allowed) and Eric Stokes (66.7% catch rate and 89.1 passer rating) all game.

Jakobi Meyers (WR)

Jakobi Meyers is the WR19 in fantasy points per game. Meyers has a 26% target share, 2.01 yards per route run (82.5 receiving yards per game), and a 32.7% first-read share. He is tied for the team lead with two red zone targets. Washington has utilized single high at the tenth-highest rate (59.5%). Against single high, Meyers has a 21.6% target share with 2.30 yards per route run and a 19.2% first-read share. Meyers should see a lot of volume again this week. Washington is 18th in PPR points per target allowed to slot receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

After a QB16 finish in Week 1, the wheels came off the Geno Smith party bus in Week 2. He posted only 6.2 fantasy points while having a rough outing. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Smith ranks 20th in yards per attempt, 34th in passer rating, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, and 32nd in catchable target rate. This week, he faces a Washington pass defense that ranks 16th in yards per attempt while holding passers to the 13th-lowest passer rating and the 11th-lowest CPOE. Sit Smith this week.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

With Austin Ekeler out for the season, Jacory Croskey-Merritt will take over more of the Washington backfield. It’s just a question of how much. I expect Jeremy McNichols to be worked in, especially on passing downs, but Croskey-Merritt (aka Bill) should have the lion’s share of the early down work moving forward. In a limited sample, Bill has been good with a 7.1% explosive run rate and 3.50 yards after contact per attempt. Bill has a tough matchup on the ground this week and likely needs a touchdown to pay off for fantasy. The Raiders have allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Jeremy McNichols (RB)

I expect Jeremy McNichols to assume the role that Austin Ekeler was playing for the Commanders. In Week 1, Ekeler played 47.4% of the snaps with 18.8% of the rushing share, a 45.9% route share, and a 10% target share. Maybe McNichols sees a few less snaps and routes, but I think his usage will be pretty close to this at least until Jacory Croskey-Merritt proves himself on passing downs. McNichols was explosive in limited duty last year. Among 70 qualifying backs, he ranked fourth-best in explosive run rate and 24th in yards after contact per attempt. McNichols could develop into a solid weekly flex play, but this isn’t the week to trot him out there in lineups. The Raiders have allowed the tenth-lowest explosive run rate, the 11th-lowest missed tackle rate, and the fifth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• PHI -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Rams Players & Weekly Rankings

Eagles Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jalen Hurts
• Saquon Barkley
• Kyren Williams
• Puka Nacua

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

A.J. Brown (WR)

Well, A.J. Brown had a better Week 2 performance than he did to open the season, but it still wasn’t great for fantasy. He was the WR67 for the week despite ranking third in separation and first in route win rate among 107 qualifying wide receivers. This means that better days should be ahead for Brown, though. In Week 2, Brown had a 36.4% target share, a 37.6% air-yard share, and a 43.8% first-read share while finishing with only 27 receiving yards (1.23 yards per route run). The Rams have the highest single high rate in the NFL (70.7%). Last year, against single high, Brown had a 36% target share, 3.94 yards per route run, and a 46.6% first-read share. With Akhello Witherspoon out, Brown will match up against Emmanuel Forbes (80% catch rate and 147.1 passer rating allowed) and Darius Williams (2024: 60.9% catch rate and 89.3 passer rating allowed) all day. I’m not worried about Brown winning those matchups.

DeVonta Smith (WR)

It hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows for DeVonta Smith to open the season either. He is the WR65 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 20% target share with a 44.1% air-yard share, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 30.8% first-read share. The usage has been there, but the fantasy results haven’t. His 0.091 separation score and 18.2% route win rate in Week 2 were encouraging. The Rams have the highest single high rate in the NFL (70.7%). Last year, against single high, Smith had a 25.5% target share, 2.60 yards per route run, and a 31.1% first-read share. The perimeter tandem of Emmanuel Forbes (80% catch rate and 147.1 passer rating allowed) and Darius Williams (2024: 60.9% catch rate and 89.3 passer rating allowed) doesn’t frighten me. The Rams are 18th in PPR points per target and 16th in receiving yards per game allowed to perimeter wide receivers.

Davante Adams (WR)

Davante Adams is still humming along as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, as the WR16 in fantasy points per game. He ranks third in separation and second in route win rate. Adams has a 32.3% target share, a 44.1% air-yard share, 2.91 yards per route run, and a 32.7% first-read share. Start Adams. This doesn’t have to be an in-depth discussion. The Eagles have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Dallas Goedert (TE)

After missing Week 2, Dallas Goedert will be back in the lineup this week. In Week 1, Goedert was the TE10 as he saw a 30.4% target share and 30% first-read share producing 44 receiving yards (1.57 yards per route run). I don’t see Goedert gobbling up a 30% target share in Week 3, but he could easily flirt with TE1 numbers. Last year, the Rams allowed the third-highest yards per reception, the sixth-most receiving yards, and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Matthew Stafford (QB)

While Matthew Stafford is the QB23 in fantasy points per game, he is playing so much better than that. On a per-dropback basis, Stafford is playing at an elite level. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, fourth in CPOE, third in highly accurate throw rate, and first in hero throw rate. I guess the back issue that had us all worried in training camp is just fine now. Stafford is playing at such a high level that I’m willing to bet on him having a strong game, but like in previous weeks I don’t know if that means it will be a nice fantasy outing. The Eagles have allowed the sixth-fewest yards per attempt, the third-lowest passer rating, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback. Philly also ranks sixth-best in pressure rate.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers

• ATL -5.5, O/U 43.5
• Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Falcons Players & Weekly Rankings

Panthers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Bijan Robinson
• Drake London

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tetairoa McMillan (WR)

Tetairoa McMillan is the WR22 in fantasy points per game, drawing an 18.9% target share, a 30.7% air-yard share, and a 23.6% first-read share. He has 1.95 yards per route run and has averaged 84 receiving yards per game. This week, he faces an Atlanta secondary that has the third-highest single high rate (64.2%). Against single high, McMillan has seen his target share increase to 24.4% with 2.55 yards per route run and a 30.8% first-read share. McMillan should have another productive outing against a secondary that has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers and will be without A.J. Terrell. I expect Dee Alford (2024: 74.5% catch rate and 119.2 passer rating allowed) to take Terrell’s place on the perimeter this week.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

I was down on Kyle Pitts last week, but I’m back in with Pitts this week as a strong tight end play. I worry about how much Atlanta will pass, but the bar to clear for a tight end to be a TE1 weekly isn’t a high one. Pitts is the TE13 in fantasy points per game seeing a 20.6% target share with 1.57 yards per route run and a 19.6% first-read share. This coverage shell matchup is perfect for him to succeed. Carolina has utilized single high with 56.5% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Pitts has seen his target share balloon to 28.6% with 1.91 yards per route run and a 25% first-read share. Carolina has allowed the sixth-most yards per reception and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Michael Penix (QB)

If Bijan Robinson runs wild this week against the Carolina Panthers’ run defense, I worry Michael Penix won’t have to do much again. Last week, Atlanta had the second-lowest neutral passing rate (46.8%), which could be similar to this week’s approach. This will limit Michael Penix and the passing attack. Penix is the QB26 in fantasy points per game. Among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Penix ranks 21st in yards per attempt and CPOE, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in catchable target rate. If Atlanta wants to ramp the passing rate back up, though, they should have success through the air. Carolina has allowed the 13th-most yards per attempt, the seventh-highest CPOE, and the 11th-highest success rate per dropback. Penix has a wide range of outcomes this week.

Tyler Allgeier (RB)

Tyler Allgeier is a decent touchdown-dependent flex this week. Allgeier is the RB30 in fantasy points per game, averaging 13.5 touches and 52 total yards. He hasn’t forced a missed tackle yet and has only 1.58 yards after contact per attempt, but he has five red zone rushing attempts in two games. Allgeier could easily snag a touchdown this week in a great rushing matchup. Carolina has allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate, the seventh-most rushing yards per game, and the 12th-highest missed tackle rate.

Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE)

Ja’Tavion Sanders is a low-end streaming tight end option this week. It’s simply a volume play if you’re desperate. Last week, Sanders had a 66.1% route share with a 16.4% target share, 1.38 yards per route run (54 receiving yards), and a 24.2% first-read share. The Falcons have defended only six tight end targets this season, allowing one reception and 12 scoreless receiving yards. Last year, Atlanta allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game and the seventh-most yards per reception to tight ends. Sanders could flirt with TE1 production this week. He was the TE6 in fantasy last week.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Bryce Young (QB)

Bryce Young hasn’t come close to his 2024 late-season form through two starts this season. He is the QB22 in fantasy points per game, ranking 31st in yards per attempt, 28th in CPOE, 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 20th in catchable target rate. With only 21 rushing yards per game, his legs aren’t providing enough fantasy production to balance out the rough passing numbers. Young faces an Atlanta defense that has been impressive, giving up the eighth-fewest yards per attempt, the second-lowest CPOE, and the third-lowest success rate per dropback. Atlanta is also fourth in pressure rate, so Young should be running for his life this week.

Chuba Hubbard (RB)

Chuba Hubbard is the RB7 in fantasy points per game, but it’s volume and touchdown fluff window dressing. Hubbard has averaged 17 touches and 83 total yards while playing 71% of the snaps and soaking up a 57.6% route share (12.2% target share). The problem here is that he has been woefully inefficient on the ground. He hasn’t forced one missed tackle yet and has only 1.62 yards after contact per attempt. I know it’s a small sample (26 carries), but it has to get mentioned here. He has a tough matchup this week, but hopefully volume can help him overcome it. Atlanta has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game and the eighth-fewest yards before contact per attempt, while also ranking 17th in yards after contact per attempt.

Darnell Mooney (WR)

In his first game of the season, Darnell Mooney had a quiet outing as the Falcons leaned on their running game. He had a 19% target share, a 35.9% air-yard share, 0.87 yards per route run, and a 12.5% first-read share. This isn’t a matchup that I would consider flexing him because I have concerns about how much Atlanta will pass this week, and Carolina has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Xavier Legette (WR)

Xavier Legette is droppable. Through two games, he has only a 13.3% target share with 0.10 yards per route run and a 20% first-read share. He wasn’t efficient with the volume he received last year, and that hasn’t changed in 2025. The Panthers need Jalin Coker to return soon.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings

• MIN -3, O/U 41.5
• Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Vikings Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Chase Brown
• Justin Jefferson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jordan Mason (RB)

With Aaron Jones out, Jordan Mason should be the Vikings’ clear workhorse back. He has averaged 13.5 touches and 56.5 total yards. Those numbers should both go up, and I expect Mason to flirt with 17-20 touches this week. He has been efficient on the ground with his work. Among 50 qualifying backs, Mason ranks 13th in explosive run rate, sixth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Mason should have a productive day against a run defense that has the 11th-lowest stuff rate while ranking 14th in yards after contact per attempt and 15th in yards before contact per attempt.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Tee Higgins had a quiet Week 1, but last week, with Jake Browning under center for most of the game, he was the WR28 in fantasy. Last week, Higgins had a 17.8% target share with 1.27 yards per route run (56 receiving yards) and a 21.9% first-read share. In 2023, with Browning as the starter and Higgins as a full-time player, Higgins was the WR17 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 15.5% target share with a 43.7% air-yard share. During that stretch, he averaged 77.3 receiving yards per game (2.53 yards per route run) with a 19% first-read share. Browning is good enough with the Cincy passing volume to support Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The bigger worry for Higgins and Browning is facing the Vikings’ pass defense this week. Minnesota has allowed the 13th-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jake Browning (QB)

Jake Browning might be the Bengals’ starting quarterback for the rest of the season. Last week, he finished as the QB14 in fantasy. This season, among 34 qualifying passers, he ranks 13th in yards per attempt and 14th in highly accurate throw rate, but that’s where the good news stops. He has the highest turnover-worthy throw rate while ranking 33rd in catchable target rate and sporting the highest off-target rate. Browning has some Jameis Winston to his game. It’ll likely be better for fantasy purposes than for real-life football. In 2023, when he was the starter, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game with five QB1 performances (QB4, QB4, QB8, QB8, QB9) in weekly scoring. The Bengals didn’t back off the throttle from passing heavily with Browning as they ranked 11th in neutral passing rate (61.5%) during that stretch. In 2023, among 39 qualifying quarterbacks, Browning was fifth in yards per attempt, seventh in passer rating, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, fifth in catchable target rate, and 13th in CPOE. He didn’t stretch the field much with the lowest aDOT (6.4) and third-lowest deep throw rate (7.8%). Browning has a tough test this week. Minnesota has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per attempt, the 14th-lowest passer rating, and the fifth-lowest CPOE. Brian Flores will bring the heat as the Vikes rank eighth in pressure rate and fifth in blitz rate. Good luck, Browning. Good luck. Passing volume should be on his side at least to rack up some stats.

Carson Wentz (QB)

Playing Carson Wentz this week in fantasy would just be relying upon the matchup and faith in Kevin O’Connell. In the last two starting experiences with Wentz, it hasn’t been good. Wentz has drawn Week 18 starts in each of the past two seasons. Last year, he had only 5.76 yards per attempt, a -11.1% CPOE, a 35.3% highly accurate throw rate, and a 64.7% catchable target rate. None of that is even backup quarterback-level production. The year prior, he had 6.7 yards per attempt, a 2.2% CPOE, a 16.7% highly accurate throw rate, and an 83.3% catchable target rate. He didn’t surpass 200 passing yards in either game. KOC, work your magic. The Vikings need it. At least, Wentz gets a nice matchup this week. Cincy has allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game, the 13th-highest CPOE, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback.

T.J. Hockenson (TE)

T.J. Hockenson has gotten off to a quiet start as the TE43 in fantasy points per game. He has a 17.1% target share (3.5 targets per game) with 13.5 receiving yards per game (0.66 yards per route run) and an 18.2% first-read share. The market share metrics have been fine, but with Minnesota moving to a more run-heavy approach, the volume just hasn’t been there. You’re probably starting Hockenson this week because of the state of the tight end position, but I can’t tell you to feel great about it. The matchup is at least in his favor. The Bengals have allowed the 14th-highest yards per reception and the tenth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

MIA vs. BUF | IND vs. TEN | PIT vs. NE | NYJ vs. TB | LV vs. WAS | LAR vs. PHI | ATL vs. CAR | CIN vs. MIN | HOU vs. JAC | GB vs. CLE | DEN vs. LAC | NO vs. SEA | ARI vs. SF | DAL vs. CHI | KC vs. NYG | DET vs. BAL