The Primer: Week 5 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals

• ARI -7.5, O/U 41
• Tennessee Titans vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Titans Players & Weekly Rankings

Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Trey McBride

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Kyler Murray (QB)

Kyler Murray has been a huge disappointment this season as the QB20 in fantasy points per game. The discrepancy between his name value and fantasy production remains insane. He hasn’t finished higher than QB16 in any week. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 29th in passing yards per game, 31st in yards per attempt, and 15th in catchable target rate. Murray has averaged 6.3 rushing attempts and 37 rushing yards. He could finally post a QB1 week against Tennessee. The Titans have allowed the tenth-highest yards per attempt and passer rating, the ninth-highest CPOE, and the tenth-highest success rate per dropback.

Tony Pollard (RB)

Tony Pollard is the RB29 in fantasy points per game despite averaging 18.5 touches and 79.1 total yards. The Titans’ offense and offensive line are doing him no favors. He has only six red zone touches, and the line has the tenth-lowest yards before contact per attempt. Pollard has the 11th-lowest stuff rate and ranks 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Pollard’s touchdown chances aren’t great, but he should post solid volume numbers again this week. Arizona has allowed the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game, but they have faced the sixth-fewest rushing attempts. The Cardinals’ run defense has some holes in its armor, as they have given up the seventh-highest explosive run rate and the 11th-highest missed tackle rate.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Michael Carter (RB)

With Trey Benson headed to the IR, Michael Carter looks to take over the early down portion of a committee approach in Arizona. Last week, Carter played only four snaps, had one rushing attempt, and ran two routes. Last year, to close the season (Weeks 17-18), he drew two starts, averaging 18 touches and 70 total yards with a 13% missed tackle rate and 1.67 yards after contact per attempt. In those two games, he finished as the RB20 and RB11 in weekly scoring. Emari Demercado will factor into this backfield equation, but if Carter is the early down hammer, he should have a strong day against a porous Titans’ run defense. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Emari Demercado (RB)

The big debate this week is “which Cardinals’ running back will take the lion’s share of the work this week?” The way I’m approaching this is that Michael Carter will be the early down option, and Demercado will handle the two-minute offense and most of the passing downs. Last week, he was second to Trey Benson in route share with 29.4%. He played 39.1% of the snaps but only had two carries. Last year, while he had a 20.4% route share, he had only 6.8% of the rushing volume. He could easily break a big run this week and pay off with the early down volume he is given. Last year, in limited action (24 carries), he looked very good with a 12.5% explosive run rate, a 21% missed tackle rate, and 3.58 yards after contact per attempt. Tennessee has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game, the fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the 13th-highest yards after contact per attempt. The Titans are also 17th in receiving yards and 18th in yards per reception allowed to running backs. Demercado and Carter are strong flexes this week, with the situation murky and the matchup juicy.

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)

Marvin Harrison Jr. has had an up-and-down season to this point as the WR29 in fantasy points per game. He has two top 15 weekly finishes this season (WR12, WR14), and he’s been outside the top 50 wide receivers in weekly scoring in the other two games (WR82, WR51). Harrison Jr. has four deep targets and three red zone looks this season. He has a 20% target share, a 36.5% air-yard share, 1.45 yards per route run, and a 22.1% first-read share. All of these numbers are pretty typical market share and efficiency numbers for a WR3/4 in fantasy. Harrison Jr. could get shadowed by L’Jarius Sneed this week. Sneed followed Davante Adams and Nico Collins on 78.6-85.2% of their routes. Adams cooked him, securing five of his nine targets with 100 receiving yards and a score. Collins was held to only one target and one reception for 37 scoreless yards. Harrison Jr. is a solid but not a smash play this week. Tennessee has allowed the 14th-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Cam Ward (QB)

Cam Ward is a sit weekly until he and this passing attack show some sign of life. Ward has only two passing scores all year. He hasn’t surpassed 220 passing yards or 6.0 yards per attempt in any game. He has only one game this season with double-digit fantasy points as the QB37 in fantasy points per game.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

Calvin Ridley could be dealing with an injury as his snap share dipped to 54% last week. Even if he was fully healthy, he’s a sit this week. Ridley has fallen off a cliff this season. He has a 19.2% target share, a 32.1% air-yard share, and a 24.7% first-read share, but he hasn’t done anything with the volume. He has averaged only 35.3 receiving yards per game and produced 1.27 yards per route run and 0.063 first downs per route run. Arizona has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Ridley. He is dangerously close to being a cut candidate for fantasy teams.

Elic Ayomanor (WR)

Elic Ayomanor has finished as a top 36 wide receiver in two of four games (WR24, WR27). He has three deep targets and three red zone looks this season. Ayomanor has an 18.4% target share, 37.8 receiving yards per game (1.47 yards per route run), and a 22.1% first-read share. Arizona has the eighth-highest two high rate (55.6%). Against two high, Ayomanor’s yards per route run has dipped to 0.92, and his first-read share has dropped to 16.1%. This isn’t the matchup to consider flexing him. Arizona has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

SF vs. LAR | MIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. BAL | LV vs. IND | MIA vs. CAR | DEN vs. PHI | NYG vs. NO | DAL vs. NYJ | TEN vs. ARI | TB vs. SEA | DET vs. CIN | WAS vs. LAC | NE vs. BUF | KC vs. JAC

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• SEA -3.5, O/U 44.5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Seattle Seahawks Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings

Seahawks Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• Emeka Egbuka

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Sam Darnold (QB)

Sam Darnold is the QB27 in fantasy points per game, but he’s playing MUCH better football than that ranking suggests. He has at least 16.1 fantasy points in each of his last three games. Darnold ranks second in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, eighth in highly accurate throw rate, and third in hero throw rate. Darnold should have a strong week against the Bucs’ pass defense. Tampa Bay has allowed the eighth-highest success rate per dropback and 13th-highest passer rating while ranking 15th in yards per attempt. The Bucs still love to blitz (fourth-highest rate). Darnold has destroyed the blitz with the third-best yards per attempt and the highest CPOE. Darnold gets another boost this week with Jamel Dean and Benjamin Morrison both sidelined with injuries this week. Kindle Vildor (career: 66.5% catch rate and 123.7 passer rating allowed) will likely step in this week across from Zyon McCollum (63.6% catch rate and 112.1 passer rating allowed).

Rachaad White (RB)

With Bucky Irving out this week, Rachaad White should be Tampa Bay’s workhorse back. When White has been called upon, he has been efficient on a per-touch basis with a 26% missed tackle rate and 2.43 yards after contact per attempt. White should handle the bulk of the work this week while having bellcow upside. Sean Tucker could steal a few touches, but I don’t think his workload is projectable enough to warrant him being a flex play this week. White has a horrible matchup incoming. Seattle has been quite good this season at stopping the run, giving up the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game, the second-lowest explosive run rate, and allowing the third-fewest yards after contact per attempt. White could make up for a lack of production in the rushing department with his receiving role this week. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, he was still a solid receiving option, ranking 24th in target per route run rate (21%), 18th in yards per route run (1.44), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.066). Seattle has allowed the most receiving yards and the ninth-highest yards per reception to running backs. They allowed production to running backs through the air last year as well, giving up the tenth-most receiving yards and yards per reception to the position.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Cooper Kupp is the WR59 in fantasy points per game with one top 24 finish in weekly scoring (WR21). He has only one red zone target and zero deep targets. The matchup against the Bucs this week could aid Kupp in having another strong game. Kupp has an 18.4% target share, 1.91 yards per route run (40.5 receiving yards per game), and a 20% first-read share. Those are solid efficiency and usage metrics. What has hurt Kupp is the fact that Seattle has the third-lowest neutral passing rate, and they are fifth in plays run from positive game script (fourth-highest positive game script rushing rate). Kupp should be relied upon this week against a defense that is good at stopping the run and poor at defending slot receivers. Tampa Bay has allowed the tenth-most fantasy points per game and the sixth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers (Kupp Weeks 1-3: 51.6% slot rate). Jacob Parrish (90% catch rate and 121.3 passer rating in slot coverage) has been burnable from the slot.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Cade Otton (TE)

Cade Otton has been a ghost this season, but this matchup puts him on the fringe of the streaming radar this week. Otton has only a 7.2% target share with 0.29 yards per route run (8.5 receiving yards per game) and a 7.9% first-read share. Otton has more than ten receiving yards in only one game this season (25 receiving yards). Yes, you have to be desperate to play him, but with bye weeks starting, some people might be in trouble at tight end. Otton has one red zone target. Seattle has allowed the most fantasy points per game and the tenth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Baker Mayfield (QB)

Baker Mayfield continues to defy the regression demon as the QB8 in fantasy points per game. He has at least 17.7 fantasy points per game in every game this season. He is averaging a career high 32.3 rushing yards per game with at least 33 rushing yards in three of four games. Mayfield is sixth-best in scrambles per game. As a passer, he is living his best Jameis Winston life, ranking third best in passing touchdowns (tied) and second in hero throw rate, but he’s also 25th in highly accurate throw rate, 23rd in catchable throw rate, and tenth in off-target rate. He’ll have his hands full with the Seattle pass defense this week, which has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, and the tenth-lowest CPOE. Seattle has given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Kenneth Walker III (RB)

Last week, with Zach Charbonnet back in the lineup, Kenneth Walker led the way with a 51.6% snap rate and 19 of 31 running back rushing attempts, but he ran 11 routes (Charbonnet had 12) and only had two red zone carries (Charbonnet had four). Walker finished with 20 touches and 110 total yards. Since Week 2, he has averaged 17 touches and 92.7 total yards as the RB12 in fantasy points per game. Among 43 qualifying backs, Walker ranks fourth in explosive run rate and tenth in missed tackles forced per attempt. Walker’s big play potential allows him to overcome tough matchups, which he’ll have to do this week. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Zach Charbonnet (RB)

Last week, Zach Charbonnet returned to the lineup, playing 47% of the snaps with 14 touches and 44 total yards. He ran one more route (40% route share) than Kenneth Walker and out-carried him inside the red zone four-to-two. Charbonnet has been woefully ineffective this season with just an 8% missed tackle rate and 1.92 yards after contact per attempt. Sit him this week with a bad matchup on the ground incoming. Tampa Bay has allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, the lowest missed tackle rate, and the fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Well, so much for easing Chris Godwin in. In his first action of the 2025 season, Godwin had an 86.4% route share, a 22.5% target share, and a 25% first-read share. He wasn’t effective with the usage, though, with only 26 receiving yards and 0.68 yards per route run. The volume and usage were nice to see, but this isn’t the week to consider flexing Chris Godwin. Seattle has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (Godwin 63.2% out wide).

Tory Horton (WR)

Tory Horton has been productive at times this season, but his usage is too up and down to trust right now. He has two games this season with route shares north of 60%, but he has dipped below 50% twice as well. Last week, Horton had a 36.7% route share and only a 7.7% target share. This is too volatile to trust in a flex spot this week. The matchup is horrible for Horton, even if he were a full-time player. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Sit Horton.

SF vs. LAR | MIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. BAL | LV vs. IND | MIA vs. CAR | DEN vs. PHI | NYG vs. NO | DAL vs. NYJ | TEN vs. ARI | TB vs. SEA | DET vs. CIN | WAS vs. LAC | NE vs. BUF | KC vs. JAC

Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• DET -10.5, O/U 49.5
• Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Lions Players & Weekly Rankings

Bengals Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Amon-Ra St. Brown
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Sam LaPorta

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jared Goff (QB)

Jared Goff is the QB18 in fantasy points per game. He has one monster outing this season and three mediocre ones from a fantasy perspective (QB21, QB23, QB22). If the Lions are forced to throw this week, Goff should put another QB1 performance on the mantle. Goff is playing fantastic football, though. Among 38 qualifying passers, he ranks 11th in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, sixth in CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. The real question is if Detroit wants to air it out this week. They could easily keep the ball on the ground and run over Cincy. If they decide to chuck it, Goff should shred the Bengals. Cincy has allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the third-most passing yards per game, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, and the tenth-highest CPOE. The Bengals have the sixth-lowest pressure rate, so Goff should have clean pockets all day to throw from.

David Montgomery (RB)

David Montgomery is the RB22 in fantasy points per game, with half of his games so far resulting in RB2 or better finishes (RB24, RB2). Montgomery ranks 14th in red zone touches and seventh in total touchdowns among running backs. With only one target in three of four games this season, Montgomery is dependent upon his early down production and touchdowns. He has averaged 12.3 touches and 70.1 total yards. Among 43 qualifying backs, he ranks ninth in explosive run rate, 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, and first in yards after contact per attempt. He should post another strong stat line this week against a Cincy run defense that has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 12th-most yards after contact per attempt, and ranks 16th in missed tackles per attempt.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Jake Browning (QB)

Jake Browning has been horrible in his two starts in relief of Joe Burrow as the QB29 and QB32 in fantasy. In his defense, drawing the Vikings and Broncos for your first two starts of the 2025 season is about as bad as you can ask for. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, Browning ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 37th in CPOE and catchable target rate, and 27th in highly accurate throw rate. This week’s matchup against Detroit is the easiest one he has faced so far, with D.J. Reed out and Terrion Arnold banged up. He should be able to post strong QB2 numbers this week. Detroit has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and the 14th-highest passer rating while ranking 15th in CPOE and 16th in pressure rate.

Tee Higgins (WR)

Tee Higgins is the WR63 in fantasy points per game. He has finished as the WR28, WR99, and WR62 in weekly scoring over the last three weeks with three red zone targets. Since Week 2, Higgins has had a 16.5% target share, a 36.3% air-yard share, 1.11 yards per route run (34.3 receiving yards per game), and a 23.1% first-read share. If Jake Browning can turn in a decent performance, Higgins should bounce back this week as a WR2/3. The Lions have allowed the tenth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Jameson Williams (WR)

Jameson Williams is the WR45 in fantasy points per game. He has been massively boom or bust this season with a WR1 finish (WR12) and three weekly finishes outside the top 50 wideouts (WR57, WR59, WR64). 45% of his target volume has been via deep targets. He is fifth-best among wide receivers in deep targets. Williams has a 16.4% target share, a 44.7% air-yard share, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 17.5% first-read share. Cincy has been good against the deep ball, allowing the tenth-lowest completion rate and the sixth-lowest passer rating. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Williams come down with a long touchdown this week, but unless I need the high ceiling play to win a matchup, I’m sitting Williams this week. Cincy has allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers this season.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Chase Brown (RB)

Chase Brown hasn’t had a chance this season. Without Joe Burrow, no defense is worried about the passing game, and the Cincy offensive line can’t impose its will at all. The Bengals’ offensive line ranks dead last in yards before contact per attempt (0.68). They can’t even get a yard past the line of scrimmage for Brown to operate. Brown is the RB32 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.1 touches and 51.8 total yards. He has zero explosive runs, a 14% missed tackle rate, and 1.98 yards after contact per attempt. All of these are pitiful metrics, but in his defense, no back could succeed in this situation. Brown has become a touchdown-dependent flex play. Detroit has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game and yards after contact per attempt and the fifth-lowest missed tackle rate.

SF vs. LAR | MIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. BAL | LV vs. IND | MIA vs. CAR | DEN vs. PHI | NYG vs. NO | DAL vs. NYJ | TEN vs. ARI | TB vs. SEA | DET vs. CIN | WAS vs. LAC | NE vs. BUF | KC vs. JAC

Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -3, O/U 47.5
• Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Herbert
• Jayden Daniels
• Deebo Samuel
• Omarion Hampton
• Quentin Johnston

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Keenan Allen (WR)

Keenan Allen is the WR10 in fantasy points per game. No, this isn’t 2023. Yes, you read that correctly. Allen has a 22.8% target share, 57.8 receiving yards per game (1.74 yards per route run), and a 22.6% first-read share. Allen has three deep targets and ranks fourth among wide receivers in red zone targets with six. Washington has utilized single-high with 55.8% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Allen is second on the team with a 21.6% target share and a 23.2% first-read share. He faces a Washington secondary that has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers (Allen 52.6% perimeter).

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

Over the last two games, Chris Rodriguez has averaged 36.5% of the snaps, nine touches, and 49 total yards. He has four red zone carries during this span, which leads the running back room (Bill has two). Rodriguez hasn’t been involved in the passing game with a 17% route share and zero targets. Rodriguez has been effective with his work, with a 5.6% explosive run rate and 4.22 yards after contact per attempt. Rodriguez is a touchdown-dependent flex this week. The Chargers have the 13th-lowest stuff rate and have allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the second-highest missed tackle rate.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB)

Over the last two games, Bill has had a 37.1% snap rate (second on the team) with 15 of the 39 running back carries (second on the team) and a 20.8% route share (6.3% target share), which has also been second on the team. Bill has averaged nine touches and 44 total yards. Since Week 3, he has had only two red zone carries (Chris Rodriguez has had four). Bill has been explosive when the ball has been in his hands with a 6.9% explosive run rate, a 17% missed tackle rate, and 3.07 yards after contact per attempt. With the work in the Washington backfield getting split into three different directions, Croskey-Merritt is only a run-of-the-mill flex despite a nice matchup on the ground. The Chargers have the 13th-lowest stuff rate and have allowed the tenth-highest explosive run rate and the second-highest missed tackle rate.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

It’s been a tough start to the season for Ladd McConkey as the WR54 in fantasy points per game. He has felt the target and usage squeeze weekly with Keenan Allen looking revitalized and Quentin Johnston stepping up as the team’s clear WR1. McConkey looks like he’s pressing too. The Chargers need to feed him a “get right” game. This could be that spot. McConkey has an 18.1% target share, 43.5 receiving yards per game (1.12 yards per route run), and a 23.6% first-read share. Washington has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the fourth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers (McConkey 62.8% slot). There’s risk here because last week was another good spot for McConkey, and he did very little. The talent is still there, and the payoff could be as well in Week 5.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz is the TE11 in fantasy points per game while seeing two red zone targets this season. Ertz has a 15.8% target share with 37.3 receiving yards per game (1.46 yards per route run) and a 19.4% first-read share. He faces a Bolts’ pass defense that has utilized single high 51.1-59.4% in three of four games this season. Against single high, Ertz has seen his target share fall to 11.3% with only 0.73 yards per route run and a 10.9% first-read share. Ertz is a fade this week. The Bolts have allowed the 12th-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game and the seventh-fewest receiving yards to tight ends.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

Terry McLaurin (quad) has been ruled out for Week 5.

SF vs. LAR | MIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. BAL | LV vs. IND | MIA vs. CAR | DEN vs. PHI | NYG vs. NO | DAL vs. NYJ | TEN vs. ARI | TB vs. SEA | DET vs. CIN | WAS vs. LAC | NE vs. BUF | KC vs. JAC