Fantasy Football Player Notes
2022 Draft Rankings
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1.
Travis Kelce
KC (at LV)
After finishing as the fantasy TE1 for three straight seasons, Travis Kelce was finally de-throned by Mark Andrews in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end posted his worst points per game average (16.6) dating back to 2017 while also posting a career-low in yards per route run (1.84) and PFF grade (81.8).
It seems logical that Kelce's reign as the perennial consensus TE1 has come to a conclusion as he enters his age-33 season in 2022. However, it's impossible to ignore the high-end target share that Kelce will command in the Chiefs offense after they traded Tyreek Hill. His 20% target share ranked second-best at the position in 2021. Although it was a slight fall-off from his 23% average target share from 2019 and 2020. |
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2.
Mark Andrews
BAL (at CIN)
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets. However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1 it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career-year. Andrews' increase in route running was tied to the Ravens boosted pass-play rate (56%). From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore's increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I'd project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season. |
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3.
Kyle Pitts
ATL (vs . TB)
If Kyle Pitts' ADP is lower than it was in 2021, he will be a screaming value. At just 21 years old, Pitts finished third among tight ends in receiving yards (1,018) through 17 weeks of the season and third in route participation (80%) through 18 weeks.
The rookie fell short of lofty preseason expectations, though, as he scored just one touchdown. Any other pass-catcher that compiled at least 1,000 receiving yards caught at least four touchdowns. And per PFF's expected fantasy points model, the Falcons tight end should have scored 5.6 touchdowns. With positive regression for Year 2 in his favor, draft the uber-talented Pitts aggressively everywhere in 2022. |
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4.
George Kittle
SF (vs . ARI)
Even though George Kittle didn't feel like a great investment as an early round selection in 2021 fantasy drafts, there's no denying his finish as the TE3 in both overall points and points per game (15.0) despite playing just 13 games.
The 49ers tight end finished as PFF's highest-graded tight end (91.2) and repeated as the leader in yards per route run (2.35) among all tight ends for the fourth consecutive season. |
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5.
Darren Waller
LV (vs . KC)
There's bound to be some hesitancy about drafting tight ends early after guys like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas failed to live up to their lofty projections (due to injury or not).
But the process was still sound behind adding some of those players in the early rounds if you look at their per-game production. Speaking to Waller, the Raiders tight end came in third in expected fantasy points per game (14.6), which ranked top-20 among all tight ends and wide receivers. He also ranked sixth in points per game (12.1) and second in targets per game (8.5) The major concern with Waller in 2022 is how much Davante Adams will eat into his targets. However, I'd focus more on valuing Waller based on how good the Raiders offense as a whole can be with the addition of Adams. I'd be willing to forego one or fewer targets per game for Waller, if it means more scoring opportunities. The big-bodied Black Hole tight end is primed for positive touchdown regression after converting just two of his 10 end-zone targets into touchdowns in 2021. |
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6.
Dallas Goedert
PHI (vs . NYG)
It took much longer than many fantasy gamers would have liked, but Dallas Goedert finally broke out in 2021 after being overshadowed by Zach Ertz since his rookie year. The Eagles tight end finished as PFF's second-highest graded receiving tight end (91.1) and as the TE10 overall, with the majority of his fantasy production coming from Week 7 onward. In those 11 games played - including postseason - Goedert averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the TE8 from a season-long perspective.
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7.
T.J. Hockenson
DET (at GB)
T.J. Hockenson's season cut short by injuries has left a bitter taste in fantasy football managers' mouths. But the hate is unwarranted, as Hockenson was well on his way to a career year with the Lions. Through 13 weeks, the Detriot Lions tight end ranked sixth in points per game, fifth in targets per game (7), first in route participation (85%), third in target share (19%) and third in air yard share.
Averaging over one more fantasy point from the year prior, Hockenson fits the mold as a post-hype sleeper after he failed to truly break out in 2021. |
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8.
Dalton Schultz
DAL (at WAS)
Coming off a stellar season as PFF's sixth-highest-graded tight end (78.2), Dallas placed the franchise tag on Dalton Schultz off the career season and released veteran Blake Jarwin.
Big D's No. 1 tight end wrapped up the 2021 season sixth in route participation (77%) and third in overall routes run (586). The highly-coveted role within the constrains of a high-powered offense ensures that Schultz will be in the back-end fantasy TE1 conversation for the third straight season. Only Darren Waller, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have scored more fantasy points at the tight end position since the start of 2020. With Dak Prescott's trust firmly in hand and Amari Cooper out the door, it's possible that Schultz builds off his ninth-ranked 16% target share entering Year 5. |
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9.
Dawson Knox
BUF (vs . NE)
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to super-low target rate per route run (14%), so any role that O.J. Howard potential earns
coming in is a massive problem. Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle-range of TEs (TE9) that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills tight end remains hands-off. |
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10.
Zach Ertz
ARI (at SF)
Tight end Zach Ertz is the other big winner in the wake of Deandre Hopkins' suspension. The former Eagle broke out in the Arizona Cardinals offense during the last four weeks of the season with Hopkins sidelined. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
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11.
Pat Freiermuth
PIT (vs . CLE)
No rookie tight end flew up the dynasty rankings more than Pat Freiermuth, who made his case as a fringe fantasy TE1 in Year 1. The Pittsburgh Steelers rookie ramped things up in Week 6 after an injury to Eric Ebron and never looked back.
Baby Gronk was the TE7 from that time forward, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game seventh). He would go on to finish the year as the TE13 overall despite running a route on just 56% of dropbacks. When starting and healthy, Freiermuth ran a route on 67% of dropbacks - a rate that would have ranked 15th-highest at the position in 2021. That's the bare minimum usage fantasy drafters should expect to see from the Penn State product with Ebron gone in free agency. |
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12.
Hunter Henry
NE (at BUF)
Hunter Henry emerged as Mac Jones' No. 1 red-zone weapon in his first year with the New England Patriots, finishing second in end-zone targets (13) and tying for first in red-zone touchdowns (9) with Mark Andrews.
But Henry's dependency on scoring touchdowns for fantasy made his production extremely volatile with just a 14% target share (13th). In seven of his games he finished as a top-12 tight end. In the other eight games, he finished outside the top-18. |
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13.
Mike Gesicki
MIA (vs . NYJ)
Mike Gesicki may see his target numbers dip in 2022 in a run-heavy offense alongside target magnets Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. That will make his 2021 production difficult to replicate.
The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action of the 2021 season. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Mike Gesicki finished as TE9. His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though - he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football. My biggest concern is that Gesicki has almost always underwhelmed after the catch - which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends. Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches. But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players. The athletic tight end will end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but won't enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation. |
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14.
Cole Kmet
CHI (vs . MIN)
No tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham's currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet's eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly aligns with his fantasy production - no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021. That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game. The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields' mobility - something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC. An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022's breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump. Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that's exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE13. |
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15.
Logan Thomas
WAS (vs . DAL)
Logan Thomas is the tight end name to highlight with his ADP falling two rounds. I'd don't think this is a result of the team drafting Cole Turner in Round 5 and more of an acknowledgment of Thomas' return from a least-season ACL injury. Chances are he misses the first few weeks of the season. But similar to the case with OBJ, he can be a force for you down the stretch when healthy.
Thomas figures to be back in the starting role after signing an extension last season. I'd buy low on him across the board coming off his injury-plagued season, which limited him to just five full games. The Washington tight end role features a 90%-plus route run per dropback rate, which is extremely rare to find among NFL offenses. |
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16.
Noah Fant
SEA (vs . LAR)
There was hope that a QB upgrade in Denver could take Fant to the next level. Unfortunately, Fant was part of the trade package that enabled the Broncos to acquire Russell Wilson. Fant is athletic and has demonstrated his pass-catching chops, but Seattle's bleak QB situation is going to be a limiting factor.
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17.
Robert Tonyan
GB (vs . DET)
Robert Tonyan wasn't particularly effective last season before his injury - only two games with over 10 fantasy points and TE29 in fantasy points per game - but the path to upside exists in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.
Don't be too quick to forget that Tonyan caught 11 touchdowns in 2020, and there are many red-zone opportunities left with Adams removed from the equation. The new Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver has earned 28 red-zone targets over the last two seasons - most by any player. As long as Tonyan remains just outside the middle-range tight end ADP, he is definitely worth an 11th or 12th round selection. With so much ambiguity regarding which wide receiver will emerge from Green Bay, the right answer might be just drafting Tonyan instead. |
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18.
Rob Gronkowski
FA (BYE)
Gronk was still impactful at age 32. If he decides to run it back with Tom Brady one more time, Gronk should continue to provide TE1 value, health permitting.
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19.
Irv Smith Jr.
MIN (at CHI)
Touted as a potential breakout candidate last summer, Smith missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus. Has the potential to be a significant contributor on a team with a narrow target tree.
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20.
Albert Okwuegbunam
DEN (vs . LAC)
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%). Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well in Albert O's favor that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. |
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21.
Tyler Higbee
LAR (at SEA)
He hasn't been able to recapture his 2019 end-of-season magic, but Higbee's role as the primary TE in a strong offense gives him a sturdy floor, and he'll be cheap in 2022 drafts.
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22.
David Njoku
CLE (at PIT)
Franchise-tagged tight end David Njoku has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback after an encouraging 2021. He set career highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, 8th), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends that commanded at least 50 targets in 2021.
The Browns also released Austin Hooper, which should open up the opportunity for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don't be too quick to forget that Njoku already as a top-10 TE finish on his career resume. |
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23.
Evan Engram
JAC (vs . TEN)
Evan Engram's PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 - 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends.
And he hasn't disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram's favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn't always translate to fantasy success. |
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24.
Gerald Everett
LAC (at DEN)
Gerald Everett was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he can be a featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch - sixth-most among tight ends. His peripheral metrics in Seattle's offense - 12% target share, 63% route participation and 17% target rate per route run - were nearly identical to Jared Cook on the Chargers offense last season. Cook finished as TE16 overall which seems like Everett's fantasy floor heading into 2022. The tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook's average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1). L.A. ranked third in that category last season (39.6). Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season's star at the position. |
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25.
Austin Hooper
TEN (at JAC)
The Browns overpaid him in free agency two years ago, and fantasy managers have been overpaying for him in drafts ever since. After a mediocre 2021 campaign, Hooper joined the Titans. It's a slightly better situation for him, but he'll still be an afterthought in most 2022 fantasy drafts.
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26.
Jonnu Smith
NE (at BUF)
Smith signed with the Patriots a day before Hunter Henry did, and some people figured Smith would be the more valuable fantasy asset. Whoops. But Smith is a good athlete who could pop if the Patriots expand his role in the passing game.
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27.
Adam Trautman
NO (vs . CAR)
He's produced modest numbers in his first two NFL seasons, but the former University of Dayton star has the potential to be a gem.
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28.
Hayden Hurst
CIN (vs . BAL)
Hard to believe the Ravens drafted him before Lamar Jackson, isn't it? Hurst has been a disappointment to date, but a move to a potent Cincinnati passing game rekindles hope.
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29.
Dan Arnold
JAC (vs . TEN)
Jaguars traded for him in late September, and Arnold rewarded them with steady production until a knee injury landed him on IR. The Jaguars' signing of Evan Engram casts doubt on Arnold's 2022 usage.
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30.
Brevin Jordan
HOU (at IND)
The Miami product enjoyed a decent rookie season, finishing with a 19% target rate per route run and four top-12 weekly finishes over his last nine games.
Jordan also dominated the receiving usage over the team's last two games, running 40 routes to Pharaoh Brown's 18 and Anthony Auclair's five. It's a great sign that Jordan should lock down the primary receiving role at tight end in Houston, especially with Jordan Akins signing with the New York Giants this offseason. It's easy to envision Jordan carving out a solid receiving role in a lackluster/unproven receiving corps behind Cooks. He's an athletic tight end with YAC-ability that I will gladly draft as my second or third tight end across any squad. |
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31.
O.J. Howard
BUF (vs . NE)
Once regarded as an elite TE prospect, Howard has been little more than a blocking tight end the last two years. Even with the move to Buffalo, it seems unlikely that Howard will become an impact fantasy contributor.
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32.
Jared Cook
FA (BYE)
Showed signs of slippage in his age-34 season, with decreased catch rate and yards per catch, and a major crash in yards per target. He'll be 35 this season, and the arrival of Gerald Everett puts Cook's role in doubt.
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33.
C.J. Uzomah
NYJ (at MIA)
He's coming off a 49-493-5 that probably represents the height of his potential. Now that he's gone from the Bengals to the Jets, Uzomah probably shouldn't be on your 2022 target list.
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34.
Trey McBride
ARI (at SF)
Incoming rookie from Colorado State put on a show in 2021 with 86 catches for 1,017 yards. Nuanced route runner with a knack for making himself available to QBs.
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35.
Mo Alie-Cox
IND (vs . HOU)
Probably too slow to ever become a coveted fantasy asset. Alie-Cox is hitting free agency this offseason. He'll turn 29 in September.
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36.
Anthony Firkser
ATL (vs . TB)
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37.
Tyler Conklin
NYJ (at MIA)
Tyler Conklin posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy in 2021. He finished ninth in route participation, 12th in target share and ninth in receptions.
His impressive season earned him a three-year deal worth $21 million with the New York Jets. But the Jets also signed ex-Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency and drafted Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round. The situation looks horrible for Conklin in a potential three-way tight end committee in a bad to below average offense. However, the situation alone has made Conklin virtually free across the board in early best ball drafts, and I think he's worth the late-round dart throw. The former Minnesota Viking should be the favorite to earn primary pass-catching duties. |
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38.
Harrison Bryant
CLE (at PIT)
Promising youngster has a chance to become the Browns' top TE now that Austin Hooper is out of the picture. The Browns' addition of QB Deshaun Watson helps make Bryant an intriguing late-round dart throw.
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39.
Greg Dulcich
DEN (vs . LAC)
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40.
Eric Ebron
FA (BYE)
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41.
Blake Jarwin
FA (BYE)
Jarwin is still a free agent, and a hip injury casts doubt on his availability for the early part of the 2022 season.
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42.
Cameron Brate
TB (at ATL)
He was a part-timer in 2021, but Brate has a nose for the end zone and a knack for making himself useful.
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43.
Donald Parham Jr.
LAC (at DEN)
His 2021 season ended prematurely with a frightening concussion. The 6-8 Parham is expected to make a full recovery for 2022.
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44.
Jelani Woods
IND (vs . HOU)
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45.
Ricky Seals-Jones
NYG (at PHI)
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46.
Tommy Tremble
CAR (at NO)
Had a promising if statistically modest rookie campaign for a team with major QB issues. Tremble could be an intriguing sleeper if the Panthers make an offseason splash at quarterback.
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47.
Josiah Deguara
GB (vs . DET)
With Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay and Davante Adams leaving, Deguara has a chance to be fantasy-viable. He would have been more appealing if Robert Tonyan hadn't signed with the packers, however.
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48.
Jimmy Graham
FA (BYE)
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49.
Chris Herndon IV
FA (BYE)
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50.
Foster Moreau
LV (vs . KC)
Didn't fully cash in on his chance after Darren Waller got hurt. Moreau has gone from prospect to suspect.
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51.
Kylen Granson
IND (vs . HOU)
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52.
Jeremy Ruckert
NYJ (at MIA)
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53.
Daniel Bellinger
NYG (at PHI)
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54.
John Bates
WAS (vs . DAL)
Fourth-rounder acquitted himself well in the latter part of his rookie season after Washington was hit with injuries at TE.
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55.
Kyle Rudolph
FA (BYE)
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56.
Isaiah Likely
BAL (at CIN)
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57.
Cade Otton
TB (at ATL)
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58.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TEN (at JAC)
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59.
Juwan Johnson
NO (vs . CAR)
Athletic youngster flashed playmaking potential early in the season but couldn't carve out a significant role for himself. Worth keeping on the radar.
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60.
Jake Ferguson
DAL (at WAS)
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61.
Jalen Wydermyer
BUF (vs . NE)
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62.
Jordan Akins
NYG (at PHI)
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63.
Jacob Harris
LAR (at SEA)
Harris had what amounted to a redshirt season with the Rams in 2021. The uber-athletic developmental prospect could eventually blossom into a star, but it might take time.
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64.
Ryan Griffin
CHI (vs . MIN)
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65.
Charlie Kolar
BAL (at CIN)
Incoming rookie from Iowa State has been consistently productive the last three years. At 6-6, 260 pounds, he looks the part.
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66.
Will Dissly
SEA (vs . LAR)
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67.
James O'Shaughnessy
CHI (vs . MIN)
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68.
Ian Thomas
CAR (at NO)
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69.
Hunter Long
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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70.
Tre' McKitty
LAC (at DEN)
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71.
Grant Calcaterra
PHI (vs . NYG)
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72.
Pharaoh Brown
HOU (at IND)
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73.
Cole Turner
WAS (vs . DAL)
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74.
Noah Grey
KC (at LV)
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75.
Drew Sample
CIN (vs . BAL)
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76.
Geoff Swaim
TEN (at JAC)
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77.
Jack Doyle
FA (BYE)
His production has waned ever since he turned 30. Hard to see a bounceback season coming next year at age 32.
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78.
Noah Gray
KC (at LV)
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79.
Marcedes Lewis
GB (vs . DET)
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80.
Derrick Deese Jr.
DET (at GB)
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81.
Brycen Hopkins
LAR (at SEA)
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82.
Blake Bell
KC (at LV)
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83.
Jeremy Sprinkle
DAL (at WAS)
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84.
MyCole Pruitt
FA (BYE)
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85.
James Mitchell
DET (at GB)
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86.
Brock Wright
DET (at GB)
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87.
Maxx Williams
ARI (at SF)
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88.
Tyler Kroft
FA (BYE)
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89.
Teagan Quitoriano
HOU (at IND)
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90.
Derek Carrier
FA (BYE)
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91.
Luke Farrell
JAC (vs . TEN)
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92.
Chris Manhertz
JAC (vs . TEN)
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93.
Adam Shaheen
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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94.
Tyree Jackson
PHI (vs . NYG)
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95.
Richard Rodgers
PHI (vs . NYG)
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96.
Darrell Daniels
FA (BYE)
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97.
Antony Auclair
HOU (at IND)
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98.
Jacob Hollister
LV (vs . KC)
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99.
Demetrius Harris
FA (BYE)
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100.
Eric Saubert
DEN (vs . LAC)
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101.
Johnny Mundt
MIN (at CHI)
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102.
Kahale Warring
JAC (vs . TEN)
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103.
Durham Smythe
MIA (vs . NYJ)
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104.
Tommy Sweeney
BUF (vs . NE)
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105.
Nick Boyle
BAL (at CIN)
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106.
Sammis Reyes
WAS (vs . DAL)
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107.
Trevon Wesco
NYJ (at MIA)
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108.
Kenny Yeboah
NYJ (at MIA)
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109.
Zach Gentry
PIT (vs . CLE)
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110.
Jack Stoll
PHI (vs . NYG)
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