Fantasy Football Player Notes

After seeing Ekeler's contract extension this offseason, it seemed a little light for a workhorse, leading many to believe they'd draft a running back early on. They waited until the fourth round to select UCLA's Joshua Kelley, who's a bigger complementary back. The Chargers offense isn't likely going to be as high scoring as it was with Philip Rivers under center, but Ekeler remains the top dog in the backfield. Still, don't just anticipate this offense is going to be as potent, or that he'll have as many scoring opportunities, which is why he's best-suited as a high-end RB2 than an RB1.

Did you know Allen hasn't topped six touchdowns in any of the last six seasons? That's despite Philip Rivers throwing at least 28 touchdowns in five of them. He's a phenomenal route runner, but not the go-up-and-get-it receiver you'll fall in love with in the red zone. The move to Tyrod Taylor is likely going to be a tough one for Allen, as Taylor will lack pass attempts in comparison to Rivers. Even if we were to say the Chargers threw the ball 500 times (Taylor's career-high is 437 attempts), that's still a massive decrease from the 597 times they threw the ball in 2019. Taking away 97-plus targets will be felt throughout the depth chart, especially when you don't score a lot of touchdowns. It does help that the Chargers receiving corps is very top heavy with Allen and Mike Williams, though. Still, it's likely there'll be less than 250 targets between the Chargers receivers, so Allen isn't getting close to the 149 targets he got in 2019. Realistically, he's likely to be in the 110-120 target range. That's still enough for low-end WR2/high-end WR3 numbers, but don't expect the same Allen whose been relied upon as a borderline WR1 anymore.

There are a lot of questions surrounding the Chargers offense as we head into 2020, and the quarterback position is atop the list. No matter who is under center, they're not going to be throwing the ball a lot. Tyrod Taylor has never attempted more than 436 attempts in a season, and Justin Herbert is a rookie who'll go through growing pains. We already saw Henry being somewhat scaled back in this offense last year, as he failed to top 45 yards in each of the last five games. For a guy who's never topped 652 yards in a season and getting a downgrade at quarterback, he has a high draft price, and is likely not going to live up to expectations.

Williams suffered a shoulder injury during camp and and although the Chargers have been publicly optimistic about him being ready for Week 1, there are reports that the team is preparing to be without him in September. He led all receivers last year with an 18.1 aDOT as Philip Rivers didn't hesitate to throw it up to him in deep in contested situations. Ordinarily, that would have probably made Williams a sleeper coming into this year, as his two touchdowns from last year were almost certainly due some positive regression. But with Tyrod Taylor replacing Williams, both the deep targets, and the number of targets, are likely to decline, and the Chargers should likely lean on their strong defense and running game. In other words, Williams is only a borderline WR4 this year who you probably won't be able to start with any regularity, even when he returns from injury.

We figured the Chargers might add a running back to replace Melvin Gordon, and it appears Kelley is that guy, though some are torn on whether it's him or Justin Jackson to get the bigger workload. Knowing they invested a fourth-round pick on Kelley, it seems likely that he'll get the first crack at the job. Realistically, it could be a three-headed backfield between them. This won't be the same offense it was with Philip Rivers and we're likely to lose some overall potential from a fantasy perspective. But for now, we should assume that Kelley is the handcuff to Ekeler, even though they're completely different players.

We all watched Raheem Mostert take off during the 2019 season, right? He had tremendous numbers when on the field in his earlier years, just like Jackson, who's averaged 5.14 yards per carry over his career to this point. Jackson is going to be fighting for playing time with fourth-round rookie Joshua Kelley this year trying to earn that Melvin Gordon role. It seems likely that the Chargers want Kelley in that role, but is Jackson good enough for them to change their course? It's a situation to monitor, as this will be a run-heavy team.

Taylor certainly has the potential to be a viable quarterback option in deeper two-quarterback leagues with a soft early schedule, especially with an improved Chargers offensive line. The problem for Taylor is that Los Angeles is almost certainly going to lean on its strong defense and rely on its running game, which isn't a recipe for fantasy production from a quarterback. Even if he does hold off Justin Herbert for the full season, his likely low pass volume should hold his fantasy value in check. He can be considered a low-end QB2 in most leagues, but he's not the most exciting option.

Badgley missed the first eight games of the season with a groin injury, but was reliable once he returned. He didn't miss a single field goal from within 45 yards, though he struggled from distance a bit. On a team that should play conservatively and rely on their defense, Badgley should see enough opportunities to warrant consideration in most standard-sized fantasy leagues.