Fantasy Football Player Notes

No player has scored more touchdowns over the past two seasons, than Austin Ekeler. The Chargers' red-zone machine scored 18 TDs (5 receiving, 13 rushing) a year after scoring 20 touchdowns in 2021. Simply put, those that faded Ekeler due to TD regression narratives got burned this past season. And the touchdowns were just part of Ekeler's RB1 finish in half-point scoring, as he lead all RBs in receptions and targets, which substantially boosted his fantasy numbers. Ekeler was fully unlocked as a receiver with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combining for 13 missed games. Until the Chargers WRs can prove they can stand the test of a 17-game season, Ekeler will remain the focal point of LA's offense. Especially if the Chargers fail to make any worthwhile addition in their backfield, because nobody currently on the depth chart is "forcing" their way onto the field.

When Keenan Allen was healthy, he looked like the player we have loved for many seasons in fantasy. He was limited to ten games played. In Weeks 11-18, Allen was the WR4 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 26.5% target share (15th) and a 34.9% air yard share (19th) with 2.24 yards per route run (18th, minimum 25 targets). Overall Allen posted his highest yards per route run since 2018 (2.32), so there are reasons to be optimistic despite his advancing age (30) that he still has 1-2 more top 15 seasons left in him. Allen should be a volume hog again in 2023 in Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense.

At this juncture of his career, we should finally conclude that Mike Williams cannot play a full season of games healthy. He was limited to 13 games played this past season, with some being less than full health. With Williams entering his age 29 season, those health worries aren't likely to resolve. He was still immensely productive as the WR20 in fantasy points per game when he was on the field. Williams was 42nd in target share (18.2%), 21st in air-yard share (31.1%), and 25th in receiving yards (895). He was also 20th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Williams should not be counted on as your WR2 in team builds, but as a WR3, he possesses weekly difference-maker potential when he's on the field.

Justin Herbert has abundant arm talent and the mobility to add rushing value, so fantasy managers were expecting him to take another step forward last season in his third year as a starter. Instead, Herbert took a step backward, with significant declines in his yardage per game, yardage per attempt and touchdown rate. He ran for only 147 yards and didn't have a single TD run. In Herbert's defense, he gutted it out through a rib cartilage fracture sustained in an early-season Thursday-night game vs. the Chiefs, and Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both missed time with injuries. The Chargers have jettisoned oft-criticized offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, replacing him with Kellen Moore. Herbert remains one of the toolsiest quarterbacks in the league and will likely produce much-improved fantasy numbers in 2023.

Ok. Deep breath. Here's the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers' WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn't be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn't supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a RAC specialist. Last year Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.

Gerald Everett posted career highs in receptions and receiving yardage in 2022, finishing with 58-555-4. Everett hasn't finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in any of his six NFL seasons, but he's established himself as a playable TE2. Everett benefits from playing with Justin Herbert, one of the better young quarterbacks in the league.