Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Omarion Hampton's rookie season was derailed by an ankle injury in Week 5. When he came back, he wasn't close to 100% healthy and had only one game with over a 55% snap rate. Any games after Week 4 last year, I'm just tossing in the trash because that wasn't the "real" Hampton. In 2025, in Weeks 1-4, Hampton averaged 17 touches and 95 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy points per game. In that small sample of games, he posted a 7.4% explosive run rate, a 19% missed tackle rate, and 2.54 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept up that pace the entire year in those three categories, he would have ranked fourth, tenth, and eighth in those categories (minimum 100 carries). Those are impressive numbers and speak to his talent and upside in 2026 as Mike McDaniel's possible bellcow. Hampton also contributed through the air in his first four NFL games with a 10.1% target share, 27.5 receiving yards per game, and 1.12 yards per route run. McDaniel is sure to get Hampton involved through the air after designing offenses of the last three seasons that have ranked third, third, and seventh in target share to the running back position. Yes, I know that Hampton isn't De'Von Achane, but this is still a feather in Hampton's cap. Hampton should be a rock-solid RB1 with massive upside in 2026.

Last year was a disappointing season for Ladd McConkey. He finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, with eight weeks outside the top 36 wide receivers in weekly scoring. The hype is heavy this draft season for McConkey to post monster numbers in Mike McDaniel's offense. I love McConkey's talent, but find myself lower than the market and expectations for McConkey this season. Last year, among 109 qualifying receivers, he ranked 41st in separation and 15th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Those aren't daming numbers at all, but my bigger concern for McConkey this season is his ability to earn a target share that could vault him into the top 12 fantasy receivers. Last year, among the same subset of receivers, McConkey was 29th in target share (19.8%), 62nd in yards per route run (1.47), 37th in receiving yards per game (49.3), 46th in first-read share (20.4%), and 64th in first downs per route run. None of this screams "ascending monster breakout WR1" for the Chargers offense in 2026. McConkey has flashed the talent to do so at various points in his career, most notably in his rookie season, but where he's being drafted (as a mid-range WR2), for me to pay that price in drafts, I have to be able to squint and see WR1 or close to it upside for a player. I just don't see that for McConkey in 2026, but I could easily be wrong. I won't crush anyone for taking McConkey in drafts this summer, but I find myself consistently drafting other receivers and running backs over him at his ADP.

Justin Herbert walked away from the 2025 season remaining an enigma despite his QB10 finish for the season in fantasy points per game. The season was filled with more injuries to him and his offensive line, which certainly changed the flavor of the football coffee last year. Last year, Rashawn Slater was out for the year, and Herbert lost Joe Alt after Week 3. On top of that, Herbert sustained a broken hand in Week 13, which obviously impacted the rest of his season. In Weeks 1-3, Herbert faced the 14th-highest pressure rate, and in Weeks 4-12, with a healthy Herbert and without Joe Alt, Herbert saw the tenth-highest pressure rate. Despite all of this, Herbert still was a top-ten fantasy quarterback last season. Among 38 qualifying quarterbacks last year, Herbert was 14th in yards per attempt, ninth in adjusted completion rate and catchable target rate, sixth in highly accurate throw rate, and 11th in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With hopefully a healthy offensive line in front of him and the infusion of Mike McDaniel's offensive playcalling genius, Herbert can ascend to new heights in the world of QB1 land in 2026.

I'll go ahead and say it...I'm irrationally high on Quentin Johnston's outlook for 2026. He has a real opportunity to be the Bolts' WR1 this season because when he was healthy last year, that is exactly who he was. Last year, in Week 5, Johnston sustained a hamstring injury that lingered even into his Week 7 and 8 usage (missed Week 6). In Weeks 7-8, Johnston had a 9.1% target share and zero targets (9.78% and zero first-read shares). Those were massive departures from his early-season usage and for the remainder of the season. In Weeks 1-4 and 9-18, when he was presumably healthy, Johnson had a 20.3% target share, 1.83 yards per route run, 12 red zone targets, 17 deep targets, a 27% missed tackle rate, and a 24.8% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). During those games, Johnston led the team in EACH of those statistical categories while posting 13.9 PPR points per game. If Johnston had kept up that per-game output for fantasy all season, he would have been the WR16 in fantasy points per game. There's a real runout for Johnston that he's the Chargers' WR1 this year, and it's not Ladd McConkey, or at the very least that the gap in usage isn't nearly as wide as the consensus believes. I"ll be drafting Johnston a ton this season as a high-upside and cheap investment in the Chargers' offense that could pay off handsomely.

Keaton Mitchell landed with the Chargers this offseason and should be solid competition for Kimani Vidal for the RB2 role. Mitchell flashed with the same big-play ability that he has been known for in his short career with the Ravens last season. Last season, he had only 68 touches, but he had a 10.2% explosive run rate and a respectable 1.37 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I don't know if he'll have a ton of bankable standalone value week-to-week with the Bolts, but he will offer some flashy big plays for Mike McDaniel's offense when called upon in 2026. I wouldn't be surprised if he works his way into an ancillary role as the season moves along that offers some flex value, but we'll have to wait and see if that comes to fruition.

I'll be avoiding Oronde Gadsden in drafts this season. Yes, in Weeks 6-18 last year, he had his moments with five TE1 finishes in weekly scoring, but he was also only the TE17 in fantasy points per game. During that sample of games, among 50 qualifying tight ends, he was 36th in target per route run rate, 15th in yards per route run, 22nd in first-read share, and 29th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 15, he failed to surpass a 70% route share in any game. All of these are concerning red flags before we even get to the Bolts' additions of Charlie Kolar and David Njoku this offseason. Gadsden looks like he's locked in a tight end committee for 2026, which is something I don't have any interest in dealing with for fantasy purposes.

Ok, let me get this out of the way first. I loved Tre Harris as a prospect, but there's not a ton to get overly excited about from this rookie season. He had only a 39.9% route share with a 15% target-per-route run rate, 1.19 yards per route run, and 0.066 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I still have faith that he can blossom in his second season. Yes, I know I'm leaning on my priors here and my thoughts about him as a prospect, but he's a free dart throw at the end of drafts right now. Just to be kind and rewind, we're discussing a player who was first in yards per route run, first in yards per route run against man coverage, and 19th in YAC per reception in his final season in college (per PFF). I'm willing to forget his rookie season and take a shot on him late in drafts again in 2026, with the hope that the talent is still there and he can breakout this season.

Kimani Vidal is a late-round handcuff option only. Vidal proved capable of carrying the load last year while Omarion Hampton was injured, but he wasn't efficient on a per-touch basis. Among 49 qualifying backs, he was 30th in explosive run rate, 34th in missed tackle rate, and 36th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Vidal will have to compete with Keaton Mitchell for touches this season in the Bolts' backfield behind Hampton. He's a serviceable handcuff flier in deeper leagues.

The Chargers will take on the Arizona Cardinals and the Las Vegas Raiders to start the year. Best schedule for any DST. Draft them and start the Bolts with confidence through the first two weeks of the 2026 season.

Last year, Cameron Dicker was the K6 in fantasy points per game, and he could be a top-three option in 2026 if the Chargers offense can be as good as we all hope. Last year, he was fourth in field goal attempts and sixth-best in field goal % made, but he was only 16th in extra point attempts. That number could climb into the top five if the Bolts' offense can bump up his ceiling and floor with more extra point opportunities.

Charlie Kolar could lead the Bolts in snaps at the tight end position, and I wouldn't be surprised this season. Last year, he had very limited playing time behind Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely, but he made the most of his opportunities when on the field. He is arguably the best run blocker that the Bolts have on the roster at tight end after finishing with a 71.5 run-blocking grade last season (per PFF). Among 81 qualifying tight ends, he only had a 93-route sample (18.5% route share), but he ranked 28th in yards per route run and 14th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Kolar is a decent late flier in tight end premium formats.