Fantasy Football Player Notes

Last year, Justin Jefferson had a horrible runout as the WR28 in fantasy points per game (WR14 in expected fantasy points per game). Obviously, a ton of his season was impacted by the level of quarterback play, but Jefferson also slid to 36th in separation score and 38th in route win rate (among 109 qualifying receivers, per Fantasy Points Data). A lot of the blame can fall at the feet of Minny's quarterback room last year, but not all of it, considering the per-route metrics as well as the fact that Jefferson was tied for the sixth-most drops. Yes, he was also 78th in catchable target rate, so 2025 was a mixed bag with some blame on both sides of the aisle. Last year, Jefferson was still sixth in target share (28.5%) and seventh in first-read share (35.1%), so we should all expect the Minnesota passing attack to run through their alpha wide receiver again in 2026. He could easily return to being a top 10 fantasy wideout as he has been every year of his NFL career (outside of 2025), but there's still some risk with Kyler Murray or J.J. McCarthy throwing him the ball this season.

Last year, as the quarterback play in Minnesota cratered, Jordan Addison had a career-worst season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. Addison had only a 17.4% target share with 43.6 receiving yards per game, 1.53 yards per route run, a 22.1% first-read share, and 0.065 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those numbers jump off the page or are convincing enough to dive back in on Addison with Kyler Murray as the starting quarterback for 2026. Addison could have a bounce-back season and still not move the needle for fantasy purposes as a matchup-based flex option or WR3/4. I'm avoiding Addison this season.

Jordan Mason is a one-trick pony, but that one trick is quite good. He's a strong early down option for NFL offenses and should continue to serve in the role this season for Minnesota. Last year, he was the RB42 in fantasy points per game while soaking up 158 rushing attempts and producing 758 rushing yards and six total touchdowns. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked tenth in explosive run rate, seventh in rushing success rate, ninth in missed tackle rate, and 15th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Aaron Jones will continue to be the passing-down partner for Mason for Minny in 2026. If (or when) Jones misses time, Mason could be a plug-and-play RB2, but he's best viewed as a high-end handcuff/touchdown-dependent flex.

Last year, we only got to see Kyler Murray for five games. In the previous six seasons, he had never finished lower than QB12 in fantasy points per game. Could he be a QB1 in 2026 with the Minnesota Vikings? Yep, it's possible. We'll see how the quarterback camp battle shakes out with Murray against J.J. McCarthy, but I'd be shocked if Murray isn't starting Week 1, with how his contract is structured and him choosing Minny over a bunch of other destinations. Last year, in his limited starting sample before being sidelined with a foot injury, Murray had the seventh-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest aDOT, and the fifth-lowest hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those numbers will make you feel warm and fuzzy, but the risk is essentially priced into Murray's ADP while his upside as a QB1 hasn't been. I have never been a Murray fan, but at this price point I'm willing to take the occasional late-round swing on him in 2026.

Aaron Jones returns to Minnesota this season, another year older and with more injuries and missed games on his resume. Last year, he missed five games while dealing with hamstring, shoulder, and hip injuries. When he was active, he averaged 13.3 touches and 62.3 total yards as the RB31 in fantasy points per game. Entering his age-32 season, I don't think Jones can be expected to play a full 17 games as a workhorse back. He will likely split work with Jordan Mason this season, picking up most of the passing game usage. On early downs, his best days are behind him, as he was 32nd in explosive run rate, 43rd in missed tackle rate, and 49th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). In the receiving game, he is still above average, ranking 26th in yards per route run and 24th in first downs per route run. Jones should be considered an RB3/PPR flex play for 2026.

After a slow start last season (in Weeks 7-18), Jauan Jennings was the WR21 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 19.5% target share with 46.1 receiving yards per game, 1.67 yards per route run, 0.095 first downs per route run, and a 28.9% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are all decent to strong metrics, but here's the problem. Jennings is no longer with the 49ers. He signed with the Vikings this offseason and profiles as the third or fourth option in the passing attack that is led by Kyler Murray. Murray isn't exactly a passer who has shown he can support three weapons (or more) on a weekly basis for fantasy. Jennings could have some flex appeal and be a bye-week fill-in for teams during the season, but I don't want to draft him this year and count on him as a weekly flex option.

2025's fifth-highest scoring DST opens the schedule at home against the Packers at home, followed by two road matchups versus the Bears/Buccaneers. However, the defense projects to suffer more injuries after being the 4th-healthiest unit last season. They also had the fourth-fewest passes defensed despite ranking in the top 5 in pressure rate/sacks. Brian Flores' blitz-happy defense lends itself to boom-or-bust DST performances (25th in turnover margin in 2025).

T.J. Hockenson isn't on my radar for 2026. Last season, he was the TE25 in fantasy points per game, and I don't foresee a bounce-back season coming for Hockenson with the signing of Jauan Jennings and Kyler Murray playing quarterback. Last year, among 54 qualifying tight ends, Hockenson was 20th in target share, 26th in receiving yards per game, 44th in yards per route run, 27th in first-read share, and 40th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Hockenson is an avoid for me in all formats.

Will Reichard had a strong showing for the Vikings in his second NFL season, finishing sixth in fantasy scoring among kickers and averaging 9.4 fantasy points per game. Reichard missed only two kicks all season, converting 33-of-35 field goals and 31-of-31 extra points. Both of the misses came from 50 yards or longer. The Vikings offense could be more potent this season is the team gets better quarterbacking, and that seems like a given considering how problematic the QB position was for Minnesota in 2025. Reichard also gets to play his home games in a dome, which is a bonus. Reichard could be a sneaky-good fantasy option.