Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Ja'Marr Chase (CIN) | 16 | 9.71% | 0.00% | 260.4 | 1 | 8.44% | 0.18% | 247.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | 16 | 6.49% | 0.00% | 209.1 | 2 | 6.20% | 1.76% | 206.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | 16 | 8.39% | 0.00% | 193.5 | 3 | 7.82% | 4.51% | 189.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 7.52% | 0.00% | 186.7 | 4 | 6.29% | 0.53% | 177.1 | 4 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | 16 | 11.11% | 0.00% | 173.6 | 5 | 8.12% | 0.00% | 152.6 | 8 | -3 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | 15 | 3.95% | 0.00% | 162.4 | 6 | 3.92% | 1.03% | 163.0 | 5 | +1 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | 13 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 157.5 | 7 | 8.01% | 0.00% | 144.4 | 13 | -6 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | 14 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 152.2 | 8 | 4.44% | 2.96% | 156.4 | 6 | +2 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | 16 | 4.38% | 0.00% | 151.7 | 9 | 4.51% | 1.13% | 153.1 | 7 | +2 |
| Jameson Williams (DET) | 14 | 7.69% | 9.09% | 150.8 | 10 | 6.15% | 7.57% | 141.4 | 16 | -6 |
| Drake London (ATL) | 16 | 5.66% | 0.00% | 150.1 | 11 | 5.84% | 0.00% | 151.9 | 9 | +2 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | 13 | 7.22% | 0.00% | 149.9 | 12 | 5.87% | 0.00% | 142.1 | 14 | -2 |
| Jordan Addison (MIN) | 14 | 9.09% | 33.33% | 149.5 | 13 | 7.75% | 20.61% | 139.2 | 19 | -6 |
| Ladd McConkey (LAC) | 15 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 147.4 | 14 | 5.13% | 0.00% | 139.8 | 18 | -4 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 16 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 145.8 | 15 | 5.01% | 0.00% | 150.1 | 10 | +5 |
| Jerry Jeudy (CLE) | 16 | 2.76% | 0.00% | 144.6 | 16 | 3.22% | 0.00% | 148.6 | 11 | +5 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | 11 | 9.17% | 0.00% | 143.8 | 17 | 8.60% | 0.00% | 140.1 | 17 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 143.5 | 18 | 5.64% | 0.00% | 141.5 | 15 | +3 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | 13 | 5.67% | 0.00% | 141.5 | 19 | 6.45% | 0.00% | 148.1 | 12 | +7 |
| Jayden Reed (GB) | 16 | 8.00% | 5.00% | 138.9 | 20 | 6.85% | 4.00% | 132.5 | 22 | -2 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | 16 | 4.88% | 0.00% | 135.2 | 21 | 5.13% | 0.44% | 137.2 | 20 | +1 |
| Zay Flowers (BAL) | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 133.4 | 22 | 3.58% | 1.41% | 135.1 | 21 | +1 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | 11 | 7.07% | 0.00% | 132.8 | 23 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 129.6 | 24 | -1 |
| DeVonta Smith (PHI) | 13 | 8.99% | 0.00% | 131.4 | 24 | 7.03% | 5.17% | 121.3 | 30 | -6 |
| Darnell Mooney (ATL) | 16 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 129.2 | 25 | 4.06% | 0.00% | 125.5 | 28 | -3 |
| Jauan Jennings (SF) | 14 | 5.31% | 0.00% | 128.3 | 26 | 5.40% | 0.00% | 128.9 | 25 | +1 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | 16 | 6.12% | 15.00% | 128.2 | 27 | 6.00% | 11.33% | 123.1 | 29 | -2 |
| Calvin Ridley (TEN) | 16 | 3.33% | 12.50% | 127.9 | 28 | 3.36% | 8.97% | 126.4 | 27 | +1 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | 11 | 2.83% | 9.09% | 127.6 | 29 | 3.45% | 9.02% | 131.5 | 23 | +6 |
| DJ Moore (CHI) | 16 | 4.29% | 0.00% | 127.0 | 30 | 4.37% | 0.38% | 128.0 | 26 | +4 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | 16 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 122.2 | 31 | 5.71% | 0.00% | 114.0 | 32 | -1 |
| Rashod Bateman (BAL) | 16 | 12.50% | 0.00% | 116.0 | 32 | 8.63% | 0.00% | 99.3 | 41 | -9 |
| Keenan Allen | 14 | 5.74% | 0.00% | 113.9 | 33 | 5.32% | 0.00% | 110.9 | 36 | -3 |
| DK Metcalf (PIT) | 14 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 113.9 | 34 | 4.27% | 0.00% | 111.6 | 35 | -1 |
| Alec Pierce (IND) | 15 | 10.14% | 0.00% | 112.7 | 35 | 7.24% | 0.00% | 100.7 | 40 | -5 |
| Jakobi Meyers (LV) | 14 | 3.10% | 0.00% | 112.7 | 36 | 3.84% | 0.27% | 118.4 | 31 | +5 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | 12 | 5.94% | 0.00% | 108.0 | 37 | 5.37% | 2.86% | 104.9 | 38 | -1 |
| Khalil Shakir (BUF) | 15 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 106.5 | 38 | 4.01% | 2.47% | 106.8 | 37 | +1 |
| George Pickens (PIT) | 13 | 2.91% | 0.00% | 105.4 | 39 | 4.15% | 0.88% | 113.2 | 33 | +6 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. (WAS) | 15 | 3.66% | 2.38% | 102.6 | 40 | 4.46% | 4.59% | 112.1 | 34 | +6 |
| Josh Downs (IND) | 13 | 4.63% | 0.00% | 102.1 | 41 | 4.84% | 0.00% | 103.5 | 39 | +2 |
| Quentin Johnston (LAC) | 14 | 8.79% | 0.00% | 101.1 | 42 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 89.0 | 48 | -6 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (MIA) | 16 | 15.00% | 0.00% | 98.7 | 43 | 10.58% | 0.00% | 82.8 | 51 | -8 |
| Jalen Tolbert (DAL) | 16 | 8.86% | 0.00% | 93.2 | 44 | 7.42% | 0.00% | 86.4 | 49 | -5 |
| DeAndre Hopkins (BAL) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 91.0 | 45 | 6.14% | 0.00% | 90.5 | 47 | -2 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) | 15 | 2.68% | 0.00% | 89.6 | 46 | 3.09% | 0.00% | 92.3 | 45 | +1 |
| Rome Odunze (CHI) | 16 | 2.97% | 0.00% | 89.1 | 47 | 4.06% | 0.40% | 95.8 | 42 | +5 |
| Tank Dell (HOU) | 14 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 89.0 | 48 | 4.03% | 1.32% | 91.3 | 46 | +2 |
| Chris Godwin (TB) | 8 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 87.8 | 49 | 6.54% | 0.00% | 82.1 | 52 | -3 |
| Adam Thielen (CAR) | 9 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 87.1 | 50 | 5.89% | 0.00% | 79.0 | 54 | -4 |
| Jaylen Waddle (MIA) | 15 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 86.6 | 51 | 3.49% | 4.52% | 93.1 | 44 | +7 |
| Romeo Doubs (GB) | 13 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 86.1 | 52 | 5.09% | 0.00% | 84.1 | 50 | +2 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG) | 16 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 85.4 | 53 | 3.31% | 0.40% | 95.5 | 43 | +10 |
| Demarcus Robinson (SF) | 16 | 10.94% | 0.00% | 85.3 | 54 | 9.25% | 0.00% | 78.8 | 56 | -2 |
| Calvin Austin III (PIT) | 16 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 84.8 | 55 | 5.19% | 0.00% | 78.9 | 55 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan (TB) | 12 | 13.79% | 0.00% | 84.4 | 56 | 9.70% | 1.59% | 70.5 | 69 | -13 |
| Andrei Iosivas (CIN) | 16 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 82.7 | 57 | 8.84% | 0.00% | 79.1 | 53 | +4 |
| Tre Tucker (LV) | 16 | 3.70% | 11.11% | 79.9 | 58 | 3.24% | 9.84% | 77.0 | 61 | -3 |
| Amari Cooper | 14 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 78.7 | 59 | 3.91% | 0.00% | 74.6 | 63 | -4 |
| Keon Coleman (BUF) | 12 | 7.02% | 0.00% | 78.5 | 60 | 6.86% | 0.39% | 78.0 | 59 | +1 |
| DeMario Douglas (NE) | 16 | 3.41% | 0.00% | 78.3 | 61 | 3.39% | 0.00% | 78.2 | 58 | +3 |
| Michael Wilson (ARI) | 16 | 5.63% | 0.00% | 77.5 | 62 | 5.03% | 0.54% | 74.9 | 62 | 0 |
| Christian Watson (GB) | 14 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 76.3 | 63 | 4.36% | 1.76% | 78.6 | 57 | +6 |
| Allen Lazard (NYJ) | 11 | 9.84% | 0.00% | 75.9 | 64 | 7.75% | 0.00% | 68.3 | 71 | -7 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | 8 | 4.69% | 33.33% | 74.9 | 65 | 4.46% | 21.20% | 71.8 | 68 | -3 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. (DEN) | 16 | 11.54% | 0.00% | 73.4 | 66 | 8.07% | 0.88% | 63.3 | 74 | -8 |
| Xavier Legette (CAR) | 15 | 4.71% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 67 | 4.80% | 0.71% | 73.9 | 65 | +2 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud III (ATL) | 16 | 1.15% | 0.00% | 71.9 | 68 | 1.97% | 1.77% | 77.2 | 60 | +8 |
| Darius Slayton (NYG) | 15 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 71.0 | 69 | 2.99% | 8.51% | 73.0 | 66 | +3 |
| Jalen Nailor (MIN) | 16 | 13.95% | 0.00% | 69.7 | 70 | 10.11% | 10.65% | 61.7 | 76 | -6 |
| Tyler Lockett | 16 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 69.2 | 71 | 3.89% | 0.00% | 74.5 | 64 | +7 |
| Joshua Palmer (BUF) | 15 | 1.54% | 0.00% | 68.4 | 72 | 2.68% | 0.00% | 72.9 | 67 | +5 |
| KaVontae Turpin (DAL) | 16 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 67.4 | 73 | 4.40% | 0.76% | 69.9 | 70 | +3 |
| Dontayvion Wicks (GB) | 16 | 6.58% | 0.00% | 66.6 | 74 | 6.30% | 0.00% | 65.3 | 72 | +2 |
| Mack Hollins (NE) | 16 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 65.3 | 75 | 8.06% | 0.00% | 59.5 | 79 | -4 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | 14 | 4.41% | 0.00% | 63.2 | 76 | 4.00% | 0.00% | 61.5 | 77 | -1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus (CHI) | 16 | 4.69% | 0.00% | 62.3 | 77 | 4.80% | 0.00% | 62.7 | 75 | +2 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling (SEA) | 13 | 8.89% | 0.00% | 62.2 | 78 | 6.40% | 0.00% | 55.5 | 85 | -7 |
| Rashid Shaheed (NO) | 6 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 59.8 | 79 | 5.66% | 2.59% | 57.0 | 82 | -3 |
| Tim Patrick (DET) | 15 | 6.82% | 0.00% | 57.9 | 80 | 7.05% | 0.00% | 58.5 | 80 | 0 |
| Parker Washington (JAC) | 16 | 5.88% | 0.00% | 57.5 | 81 | 5.25% | 0.00% | 55.6 | 84 | -3 |
| Elijah Moore | 16 | 0.96% | 0.00% | 56.3 | 82 | 2.20% | 0.00% | 64.0 | 73 | +9 |
| Diontae Johnson | 11 | 4.48% | 0.00% | 54.9 | 83 | 5.74% | 1.23% | 60.1 | 78 | +5 |
| Devaughn Vele (DEN) | 12 | 5.45% | 0.00% | 54.5 | 84 | 4.92% | 0.00% | 52.7 | 88 | -4 |
| Jalen Coker (CAR) | 10 | 4.35% | 0.00% | 53.6 | 85 | 5.16% | 0.00% | 55.8 | 83 | +2 |
| Tutu Atwell (LAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 53.2 | 86 | 1.28% | 3.52% | 58.4 | 81 | +5 |
| Cedric Tillman (CLE) | 11 | 6.12% | 0.00% | 51.4 | 87 | 5.22% | 0.00% | 48.7 | 90 | -3 |
| Noah Brown (WAS) | 11 | 1.75% | 0.00% | 51.3 | 88 | 2.39% | 0.00% | 53.5 | 86 | +2 |
| Ricky Pearsall (SF) | 10 | 6.52% | 0.00% | 49.6 | 89 | 5.64% | 1.72% | 47.5 | 94 | -5 |
| Sterling Shepard (TB) | 13 | 1.96% | 0.00% | 47.2 | 90 | 3.52% | 2.67% | 53.3 | 87 | +3 |
| David Moore (CAR) | 16 | 5.26% | 0.00% | 46.2 | 91 | 5.73% | 26.79% | 49.4 | 89 | +2 |
| Chris Olave (NO) | 8 | 2.27% | 0.00% | 44.7 | 92 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 47.8 | 92 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk (HOU) | 8 | 2.13% | 0.00% | 43.9 | 93 | 3.46% | 0.00% | 47.7 | 93 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks (NO) | 9 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 42.6 | 94 | 6.23% | 2.78% | 45.3 | 95 | -1 |
| Rashee Rice (KC) | 4 | 6.67% | 0.00% | 40.9 | 95 | 4.79% | 1.19% | 37.6 | 102 | -7 |
| Justin Watson (HOU) | 16 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 40.4 | 96 | 5.27% | 0.00% | 38.5 | 99 | -3 |
| Tyler Boyd | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 39.3 | 97 | 2.44% | 1.76% | 47.9 | 91 | +6 |
| Troy Franklin (DEN) | 15 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 37.9 | 98 | 4.17% | 0.60% | 39.2 | 98 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson (TEN) | 16 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 37.8 | 99 | 6.36% | 0.00% | 41.1 | 97 | +2 |
| Brandon Aiyuk (SF) | 7 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 37.4 | 100 | 2.25% | 0.00% | 43.9 | 96 | +4 |
| Kendrick Bourne (NE) | 11 | 2.63% | 0.00% | 35.9 | 101 | 2.95% | 0.00% | 36.6 | 103 | -2 |
| Greg Dortch (ARI) | 16 | 6.00% | 0.00% | 35.9 | 102 | 5.66% | 3.54% | 36.0 | 104 | -2 |
| Nelson Agholor | 14 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 35.1 | 103 | 5.31% | 0.00% | 32.3 | 110 | -7 |
| Dyami Brown (JAC) | 15 | 2.50% | 0.00% | 35.0 | 104 | 3.64% | 0.99% | 37.9 | 101 | +3 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster (KC) | 13 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 34.7 | 105 | 7.51% | 0.00% | 34.4 | 107 | -2 |
| Gabe Davis (JAC) | 10 | 6.98% | 0.00% | 33.9 | 106 | 7.47% | 0.00% | 35.2 | 105 | +1 |
| Mike Williams (LAC) | 17 | 2.94% | 0.00% | 33.3 | 107 | 3.44% | 0.00% | 34.3 | 108 | -1 |
| DJ Turner | 13 | 3.45% | 20.00% | 31.1 | 108 | 3.39% | 13.38% | 29.0 | 113 | -5 |
| Adonai Mitchell (IND) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30.8 | 109 | 2.09% | 3.05% | 38.4 | 100 | +9 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey (NYG) | 16 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 30.7 | 110 | 3.85% | 0.00% | 35.1 | 106 | +4 |
| John Metchie III (HOU) | 12 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 29.0 | 111 | 4.82% | 0.00% | 33.7 | 109 | +2 |
| Curtis Samuel (BUF) | 13 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 27.5 | 112 | 3.49% | 2.72% | 31.9 | 111 | +1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. (NO) | 14 | 3.70% | 0.00% | 27.4 | 113 | 3.03% | 2.47% | 26.5 | 114 | -1 |
| Tyler Johnson (NYJ) | 14 | 2.44% | 0.00% | 25.6 | 114 | 4.87% | 0.00% | 31.6 | 112 | +2 |
| Malik Washington (MIA) | 13 | 0.00% | 20.00% | 24.0 | 115 | 2.17% | 11.49% | 26.3 | 115 | 0 |
| Jalen Brooks (DAL) | 13 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 23.7 | 116 | 4.32% | 0.00% | 25.5 | 116 | 0 |
| Ja'Lynn Polk (NE) | 15 | 6.06% | 0.00% | 20.7 | 117 | 5.80% | 5.86% | 20.5 | 118 | -1 |
| Jordan Whittington (LAR) | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.7 | 118 | 2.12% | 0.20% | 24.3 | 117 | +1 |
| Robert Woods | 14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 16.4 | 119 | 2.17% | 0.00% | 20.3 | 119 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.5 | 120 | 1.04% | 0.00% | 15.6 | 121 | -1 |
| Jonathan Mingo (DAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.8 | 121 | 1.30% | 0.00% | 16.1 | 120 | +1 |
| Dante Pettis (NO) | 7 | 3.57% | 0.00% | 12.4 | 122 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 13.8 | 123 | -1 |
| Xavier Hutchinson (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.2 | 123 | 2.11% | 0.00% | 14.5 | 122 | +1 |
| Mason Tipton (NO) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 9.9 | 124 | 1.19% | 0.00% | 11.8 | 124 | 0 |
