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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Wide Receivers - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Davante Adams (GB) 1412.00% 0.00% 243.419.92%0.00%224.61 0
Tyreek Hill (KC) 1511.11%15.38%241.928.68%10.16%218.12 0
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 164.76%0.00%201.634.68%0.48%200.83 0
Calvin Ridley (ATL) 156.29%0.00%191.546.37%2.55%192.94 0
D.K. Metcalf (SEA) 167.75% 0.00% 188.356.72%0.00%180.36-1
Justin Jefferson (MIN) 165.60%0.00%186.265.16%0.48%182.95 +1
Adam Thielen (MIN) 1512.96%0.00%180.0710.31%4.52%163.610-3
Mike Evans (TB) 1611.93% 0.00% 178.689.95%0.00%165.79-1
A.J. Brown (TEN) 1410.38% 0.00% 177.597.65%0.00%160.211-2
DeAndre Hopkins (ARI) 163.75%0.00%172.8104.20%0.00%177.17 +3
Tyler Lockett (SEA) 167.58% 0.00% 165.4116.64%0.00%158.012-1
Allen Robinson II (CHI) 163.97%0.00%160.9124.65%2.14%167.18 +4
Robert Woods (LAR) 164.62%8.33%155.1134.31%6.79%150.514-1
Chase Claypool (PIT) 168.26%20.00%152.9147.16%17.40%144.217-3
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAC) 167.83% 0.00% 151.8156.31%0.00%141.421-6
Brandin Cooks (HOU) 155.04% 0.00% 151.0164.91%0.00%150.015 +1
D.J. Moore (CAR) 153.39%0.00%145.5173.97%0.40%149.716 +1
Keenan Allen (LAC) 145.41%0.00%145.1185.02%0.00%141.720-2
Amari Cooper (DAL) 163.85%0.00%144.8194.66%0.68%151.413 +6
CeeDee Lamb (DAL) 164.50%10.00%143.7204.83%6.15%143.518 +2
Nelson Agholor (NE) 169.76% 0.00% 137.6217.99%0.00%128.927-6
JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) 167.03% 0.00% 137.1226.11%0.00%130.124-2
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 152.99%0.00%136.8233.73%3.23%143.119 +4
Will Fuller V (MIA) 1110.67%0.00%135.9247.47%0.00%121.533-9
Curtis Samuel (WAS) 153.09%4.88%135.1253.92%4.99%140.222 +3
Diontae Johnson (PIT) 154.86%0.00%133.8264.35%1.89%129.725 +1
Robby Anderson (CAR) 162.17%0.00%129.2273.13%0.00%137.123 +4
Tee Higgins (CIN) 165.56%0.00%127.6285.01%0.85%124.331-3
Corey Davis (NYJ) 145.43% 0.00% 126.4294.96%0.00%123.832-3
Chris Godwin (TB) 128.33% 0.00% 126.0307.04%0.00%119.535-5
Cole Beasley (BUF) 153.74% 0.00% 125.5314.27%0.00%128.926 +5
Marquise Brown (BAL) 168.00%0.00%125.0326.55%0.67%116.438-6
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) 125.15%33.33%124.5336.11%17.75%124.530 +3
Cooper Kupp (LAR) 152.40%0.00%116.7343.49%0.65%125.029 +5
Jarvis Landry (CLE) 152.97%25.00%116.0354.68%19.92%125.128 +7
Michael Gallup (DAL) 164.72% 0.00% 114.3365.13%0.00%116.937-1
Tyler Boyd (CIN) 153.64%0.00%113.6374.61%1.29%120.434 +3
Jamison Crowder (NYJ) 126.67%0.00%113.0385.33%0.70%105.842-4
Tim Patrick (DEN) 157.59% 0.00% 110.2396.84%0.00%106.641-2
Russell Gage (ATL) 163.64%0.00%109.1404.75%5.15%117.036 +4
T.Y. Hilton (IND) 155.38% 0.00% 108.2414.88%0.00%105.443-2
Mike Williams (LAC) 155.88%0.00%105.7425.83%0.00%105.444-2
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) 162.65% 0.00% 105.6432.87%0.00%107.140 +3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) 159.52%0.00%104.3446.54%2.75%93.754-10
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) 146.10%0.00%103.8456.23%0.00%104.445 0
DeVante Parker (MIA) 143.88% 0.00% 103.3465.20%0.00%111.439 +7
Gabriel Davis (BUF) 1611.29%0.00%101.9479.35%10.94%95.352-5
D.J. Chark Jr. (JAC) 135.32% 0.00% 100.6484.79%0.00%97.647 +1
Keelan Cole Sr. (NYJ) 165.68%0.00%100.4495.29%1.32%98.446 +3
Laviska Shenault Jr. (JAC) 146.33%0.00%99.1505.32%0.88%95.353-3
Christian Kirk (ARI) 147.59%0.00%98.4517.35%0.33%97.348 +3
Sterling Shepard (NYG) 123.33%16.67%96.5523.93%8.66%96.949 +3
Julio Jones (TEN) 94.41% 0.00% 95.1534.56%0.00%95.751 +2
Zach Pascal (IND) 167.04% 0.00% 92.9547.11%0.00%93.256-2
Darnell Mooney (CHI) 164.08%0.00%91.1554.39%1.62%93.355 0
Darius Slayton (NYG) 163.09%0.00%91.0563.85%2.50%95.750 +6
Mecole Hardman (KC) 166.45%0.00%87.1575.35%2.04%83.559-2
Rashard Higgins (CLE) 137.69% 0.00% 83.9586.68%0.00%80.760-2
David Moore (CAR) 1612.77%0.00%83.85910.99%1.66%79.662-3
Jakobi Meyers (NE) 140.00%0.00%83.5601.84%0.35%92.557 +3
Kendrick Bourne (NE) 152.70% 0.00% 80.7614.30%0.00%87.858 +3
Greg Ward (PHI) 167.59%0.00%80.1626.23%0.35%73.766-4
Travis Fulgham (PHI) 135.97% 0.00% 77.9635.73%0.00%76.964-1
Hunter Renfrow (LV) 162.60% 0.00% 75.6643.64%0.00%80.461 +3
Josh Reynolds (TEN) 162.47%0.00%72.3653.49%5.00%77.663 +2
Antonio Brown (TB) 86.45%0.00%72.1665.58%0.33%68.968-2
Isaiah McKenzie (BUF) 1514.71%0.00%69.66710.95%1.78%63.079-12
Scotty Miller (TB) 155.66%0.00%69.5684.34%2.05%65.773-5
James Washington (PIT) 168.93% 0.00% 69.2696.98%0.00%62.780-11
Breshad Perriman (DET) 125.00%0.00%69.1704.34%2.14%66.871-1
Jalen Guyton (LAC) 165.45%0.00%69.1714.89%0.40%67.369 +2
Tre'Quan Smith (NO) 138.00%0.00%69.1726.37%2.14%64.376-4
Damiere Byrd (CHI) 151.30%0.00%67.9732.02%0.00%71.267 +6
Allen Lazard (GB) 106.52%0.00%64.8746.21%1.07%64.177-3
A.J. Green (ARI) 161.92% 0.00% 64.3753.72%0.00%75.565 +10
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) 76.82%33.33%63.8767.07%17.26%61.682-6
John Brown (LV) 95.77% 0.00% 63.8776.17%0.00%65.075 +2
Demarcus Robinson (KC) 155.08% 0.00% 62.6784.81%0.00%61.681-3
Randall Cobb (HOU) 106.25% 0.00% 62.1796.78%0.00%63.678 +1
Willie Snead IV (LV) 136.25% 0.00% 61.2806.02%0.00%60.684-4
Danny Amendola (DET) 140.00%0.00%60.4811.58%0.00%66.970 +11
Braxton Berrios (NYJ) 165.45%0.00%60.3825.01%0.60%58.986-4
KJ Hamler (DEN) 135.36%0.00%60.1834.54%0.68%57.788-5
Anthony Miller (CHI) 162.63%0.00%59.7844.19%0.33%66.872 +12
Tyron Johnson (LAC) 1111.54%0.00%59.5857.23%0.71%52.995-10
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) 131.64%0.00%58.9863.37%2.37%65.774 +12
Henry Ruggs III (LV) 134.65%0.00%58.1874.10%0.35%56.990-3
Chris Conley (HOU) 153.17% 0.00% 57.1883.97%0.00%60.185 +3
Preston Williams (MIA) 811.43% 0.00% 56.8899.82%0.00%53.494-5
Jalen Reagor (PHI) 111.85%0.00%56.2903.36%0.49%61.283 +7
Cam Sims (WAS) 152.08%0.00%54.2913.27%1.32%57.789 +2
Keke Coutee (HOU) 87.50% 0.00% 54.0927.74%0.00%54.693-1
Golden Tate 123.85% 0.00% 51.5934.18%0.00%52.596-3
Sammy Watkins (BAL) 103.64%0.00%51.4945.69%0.79%58.287 +7
Jakeem Grant Sr. (MIA) 141.82%0.00%51.3953.10%0.94%55.792 +3
Miles Boykin (BAL) 1412.12% 0.00% 50.6969.74%0.00%45.9101-5
Deebo Samuel (SF) 72.27%0.00%47.7972.55%2.16%49.598-1
Quintez Cephus (DET) 135.71% 0.00% 46.9985.31%0.00%46.0100-2
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) 131.39% 0.00% 46.9992.68%0.00%52.597 +2
Kenny Golladay (NYG) 56.25% 0.00% 45.81005.69%0.00%44.7102-2
Michael Thomas (NO) 70.00%0.00%43.91013.65%0.00%56.091 +10
Marvin Hall (NE) 126.25%0.00%42.31024.81%0.70%39.6108-6
Richie James Jr. (SF) 112.86% 0.00% 41.41033.14%0.00%42.0105-2
Collin Johnson (JAC) 126.45% 0.00% 41.21047.05%0.00%42.3104 0
N'Keal Harry (NE) 133.45%0.00%40.91055.24%0.00%47.199 +6
DaeSean Hamilton (DEN) 134.55% 0.00% 39.31064.85%0.00%40.1107-1
Denzel Mims (NYJ) 90.00% 0.00% 37.71072.03%0.00%43.2103 +4
Julian Edelman (NE) 60.00%0.00%35.21082.54%0.24%41.2106 +2
Adam Humphries (WAS) 75.71%0.00%34.81095.60%0.86%34.6111-2
Cedrick Wilson (DAL) 157.14%0.00%34.61107.74%0.23%35.6110 0
Andy Isabella (ARI) 125.71%0.00%33.81115.11%0.86%32.6114-3
Olamide Zaccheaus (ATL) 103.13%0.00%33.41123.50%1.32%34.2112 0
Devin Duvernay (BAL) 150.00%0.00%33.11131.76%0.39%35.9109 +4
DeSean Jackson (LAR) 53.85%0.00%30.81143.32%0.00%30.0116-2
Steven Sims Jr. (WAS) 122.70%0.00%30.31153.37%0.48%31.8115 0
Chad Beebe (MIN) 146.67% 0.00% 30.11165.32%0.00%27.7119-3
Dontrelle Inman (WAS) 87.14% 0.00% 28.31175.33%0.00%25.3120-3
Van Jefferson (LAR) 153.23%0.00%27.91184.03%0.00%29.4117 +1
Isaiah Ford 100.00% 0.00% 27.61192.03%0.00%33.0113 +6
Marcus Johnson (TEN) 90.00% 0.00% 25.51201.32%0.00%27.7118 +2
Marquez Callaway (NO) 110.00% 0.00% 21.31211.99%0.00%24.5121 0
Isaiah Wright (WAS) 120.00%0.00%19.31222.24%0.29%24.1122 0
John Hightower (PHI) 110.00%0.00%18.81231.47%0.00%21.4123 0
Jeff Smith (NYJ) 100.00% 0.00% 16.71241.83%0.00%20.8124 0
Chris Hogan 50.00% 0.00% 11.81252.82%0.00%16.2125 0
() 0.00%0.00%0.01261.81%3.02%5.7126 0