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Touchdown Regression Report

2020 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Travis Kelce (KC) 157.53% 0.00% 207.816.49%0.00%198.61 0
Darren Waller (LV) 166.16% 0.00% 171.626.12%0.00%171.22 0
Robert Tonyan (GB) 1618.64% 0.00% 124.6313.02%0.00%104.75-2
Mark Andrews (BAL) 147.87% 0.00% 112.147.25%0.00%108.84 0
T.J. Hockenson (DET) 165.94%0.00%108.356.37%0.00%110.93 +2
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 157.06% 0.00% 106.366.73%0.00%104.66 0
Logan Thomas (WAS) 165.41%0.00%104.675.26%0.00%103.67 0
Rob Gronkowski (TB) 169.09% 0.00% 104.388.65%0.00%102.38 0
Jonnu Smith (NE) 1412.31%50.00%99.2911.44%38.46%94.49 0
Jimmy Graham (CHI) 1610.53% 0.00% 93.6109.95%0.00%91.011-1
Hayden Hurst (ATL) 166.82% 0.00% 93.1116.50%0.00%91.410 +1
Jared Cook (LAC) 1511.67% 0.00% 90.4128.93%0.00%80.617-5
Noah Fant (DEN) 153.23% 0.00% 87.3133.41%0.00%88.314-1
Eric Ebron (PIT) 155.49% 0.00% 85.8146.12%0.00%89.212 +2
Hunter Henry (NE) 144.30% 0.00% 85.3154.98%0.00%89.113 +2
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 158.33%0.00%84.2166.72%0.00%78.418-2
Dalton Schultz (DAL) 164.49% 0.00% 83.5174.74%0.00%84.816 +1
Evan Engram (NYG) 160.92%16.67%78.0182.19%12.82%84.915 +3
George Kittle (SF) 83.17%0.00%77.1193.03%0.00%76.519 0
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 114.62% 0.00% 70.4204.36%0.00%69.421-1
Irv Smith Jr. (MIN) 1311.63% 0.00% 68.52111.03%0.00%67.022-1
Austin Hooper (CLE) 135.71% 0.00% 67.5226.22%0.00%69.620 +2
Dan Arnold (CAR) 168.89% 0.00% 65.8237.02%0.00%60.823 0
Trey Burton (IND) 136.38%100.00%55.3246.34%76.92%52.426-2
Darren Fells (DET) 1313.79% 0.00% 55.2259.49%0.00%47.731-6
Gerald Everett (SEA) 161.61%100.00%51.9262.43%76.92%53.624 +2
Mo Alie-Cox (IND) 145.13% 0.00% 49.4275.13%0.00%49.429-2
Jordan Reed (SF) 108.70% 0.00% 47.1288.04%0.00%45.333-5
Tyler Eifert (JAC) 153.33% 0.00% 46.9294.44%0.00%50.927 +2
Jordan Akins (HOU) 132.04%0.00%46.7303.99%0.00%52.425 +5
Richard Rodgers (PHI) 116.45% 0.00% 46.5314.31%0.00%42.535-4
Anthony Firkser (TEN) 161.89% 0.00% 44.7323.56%0.00%50.028 +4
Dawson Knox (BUF) 116.82% 0.00% 42.8337.78%0.00%45.332 +1
Chris Herndon IV (NYJ) 146.52% 0.00% 42.7345.23%0.00%39.139-5
Zach Ertz (PHI) 111.39% 0.00% 41.5352.88%0.00%47.930 +5
Jack Doyle (IND) 149.09% 0.00% 41.1367.68%0.00%38.340-4
Jacob Hollister (BUF) 167.50% 0.00% 40.9378.07%0.00%42.336 +1
Cameron Brate (TB) 155.88% 0.00% 40.2385.92%0.00%40.337 +1
Drew Sample (CIN) 161.89% 0.00% 38.9393.85%0.00%45.134 +5
Harrison Bryant (CLE) 127.89% 0.00% 37.8407.33%0.00%36.542-2
Kyle Rudolph (NYG) 122.70% 0.00% 37.4413.81%0.00%39.938 +3
Will Dissly (SEA) 156.90% 0.00% 37.1425.87%0.00%35.343-1
Cole Kmet (CHI) 154.55%0.00%34.0435.19%26.92%37.341 +2
David Njoku (CLE) 116.90% 0.00% 33.3448.05%0.00%35.344 0
Durham Smythe (MIA) 156.67% 0.00% 32.8457.69%0.00%34.645 0
Greg Olsen 112.70% 0.00% 29.9464.76%0.00%34.546 0
James O'Shaughnessy (JAC) 150.00% 0.00% 26.2470.86%0.00%28.247 0
Tyler Conklin (MIN) 143.85% 0.00% 25.4482.87%0.00%23.948 0
Ian Thomas (CAR) 153.23% 0.00% 20.5493.57%0.00%21.149 0