Touchdown Regression Report
2024 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| George Kittle (SF) | 14 | 8.42% | 0.00% | 155.9 | 1 | 7.82% | 0.00% | 152.4 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers (LV) | 16 | 3.27% | 0.00% | 139.7 | 2 | 3.67% | 0.00% | 143.4 | 3 | -1 |
| Trey McBride (ARI) | 15 | 1.36% | 100.00% | 126.3 | 3 | 3.57% | 73.21% | 144.2 | 2 | +1 |
| Jonnu Smith (MIA) | 16 | 7.14% | 0.00% | 124.7 | 4 | 6.64% | 4.46% | 121.9 | 4 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | 16 | 15.94% | 0.00% | 122.4 | 5 | 11.29% | 2.23% | 103.7 | 7 | -2 |
| Tucker Kraft (GB) | 16 | 10.00% | 0.00% | 109.7 | 6 | 7.80% | 0.00% | 100.5 | 9 | -3 |
| Sam LaPorta (DET) | 15 | 8.43% | 0.00% | 108.3 | 7 | 7.79% | 0.00% | 105.1 | 6 | +1 |
| Zach Ertz (WAS) | 16 | 7.69% | 0.00% | 101.0 | 8 | 7.76% | 0.00% | 101.4 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce (KC) | 16 | 2.26% | 0.00% | 98.4 | 9 | 3.89% | 23.21% | 112.8 | 5 | +4 |
| Pat Freiermuth (PIT) | 16 | 8.97% | 0.00% | 88.8 | 10 | 6.74% | 0.00% | 78.3 | 14 | -4 |
| David Njoku (CLE) | 11 | 5.10% | 0.00% | 84.5 | 11 | 5.39% | 0.00% | 86.2 | 12 | -1 |
| Kyle Pitts (ATL) | 16 | 5.41% | 0.00% | 82.7 | 12 | 5.24% | 0.00% | 82.0 | 13 | -1 |
| Cade Otton (TB) | 14 | 4.60% | 0.00% | 81.6 | 13 | 5.52% | 0.00% | 86.4 | 11 | +2 |
| Taysom Hill (NO) | 8 | 0.00% | 15.38% | 80.3 | 14 | 1.09% | 10.65% | 71.3 | 17 | -3 |
| Hunter Henry (NE) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 79.4 | 15 | 4.26% | 0.00% | 92.5 | 10 | +5 |
| Isaiah Likely (BAL) | 15 | 10.34% | 0.00% | 77.9 | 16 | 8.87% | 0.00% | 72.8 | 16 | 0 |
| Noah Gray (KC) | 16 | 10.20% | 0.00% | 73.6 | 17 | 8.24% | 2.17% | 68.0 | 19 | -2 |
| Cole Kmet (CHI) | 16 | 7.27% | 0.00% | 73.1 | 18 | 6.11% | 0.00% | 69.3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki (CIN) | 16 | 2.41% | 0.00% | 69.7 | 19 | 3.36% | 0.00% | 74.4 | 15 | +4 |
| Foster Moreau (NO) | 16 | 11.63% | 0.00% | 68.2 | 20 | 9.31% | 0.00% | 62.2 | 22 | -2 |
| Juwan Johnson (NO) | 16 | 4.55% | 0.00% | 64.8 | 21 | 3.78% | 0.00% | 61.8 | 23 | -2 |
| Tyler Conklin (LAC) | 15 | 5.56% | 0.00% | 63.3 | 22 | 5.53% | 0.00% | 63.2 | 20 | +2 |
| Dalton Schultz (HOU) | 16 | 2.35% | 0.00% | 62.3 | 23 | 2.52% | 0.00% | 63.2 | 21 | +2 |
| Chig Okonkwo (TEN) | 16 | 2.82% | 0.00% | 61.6 | 24 | 2.62% | 0.00% | 60.8 | 24 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper (NE) | 16 | 5.08% | 0.00% | 60.9 | 25 | 4.39% | 0.00% | 58.4 | 26 | -1 |
| Dalton Kincaid (BUF) | 13 | 2.67% | 0.00% | 56.8 | 26 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 60.3 | 25 | +1 |
| Dallas Goedert (PHI) | 9 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 56.1 | 27 | 4.42% | 0.00% | 58.1 | 27 | 0 |
| Will Dissly (LAC) | 14 | 3.13% | 0.00% | 49.9 | 28 | 3.31% | 0.00% | 50.6 | 30 | -2 |
| Brenton Strange (JAC) | 16 | 3.77% | 0.00% | 45.1 | 29 | 4.12% | 0.00% | 46.2 | 31 | -2 |
| T.J. Hockenson (MIN) | 9 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 44.6 | 30 | 1.98% | 0.00% | 52.0 | 28 | +2 |
| Jake Ferguson (DAL) | 13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 44.2 | 31 | 1.28% | 0.00% | 50.8 | 29 | +2 |
| Noah Fant (SEA) | 13 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 43.7 | 32 | 2.09% | 0.00% | 45.7 | 32 | 0 |
| Evan Engram (DEN) | 9 | 1.56% | 0.00% | 42.5 | 33 | 1.65% | 0.00% | 42.8 | 33 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver (MIN) | 14 | 10.71% | 0.00% | 42.2 | 34 | 8.05% | 0.00% | 37.7 | 39 | -5 |
| Theo Johnson (NYG) | 12 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 39.1 | 35 | 2.18% | 0.00% | 38.7 | 37 | -2 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | 16 | 10.53% | 0.00% | 39.1 | 36 | 8.76% | 0.00% | 35.1 | 40 | -4 |
| Jordan Akins | 16 | 3.45% | 0.00% | 39.0 | 37 | 3.79% | 0.00% | 40.2 | 35 | +2 |
| Dawson Knox (BUF) | 16 | 3.03% | 0.00% | 37.1 | 38 | 3.59% | 0.00% | 38.2 | 38 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR) | 15 | 2.33% | 0.00% | 36.7 | 39 | 3.95% | 0.00% | 40.9 | 34 | +5 |
| Colby Parkinson (LAR) | 16 | 2.04% | 0.00% | 34.8 | 40 | 3.75% | 0.00% | 39.8 | 36 | +4 |
| Grant Calcaterra (PHI) | 16 | 3.33% | 0.00% | 34.8 | 41 | 3.25% | 0.00% | 34.6 | 41 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker (DAL) | 16 | 2.78% | 0.00% | 28.5 | 42 | 2.32% | 0.00% | 27.5 | 43 | -1 |
| Josh Whyle (TEN) | 16 | 2.70% | 0.00% | 27.9 | 43 | 3.15% | 0.00% | 28.9 | 42 | +1 |
| Johnny Mundt (JAC) | 16 | 7.41% | 0.00% | 26.2 | 44 | 6.91% | 0.00% | 25.4 | 44 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble (CAR) | 11 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 24.4 | 45 | 5.17% | 0.00% | 22.3 | 45 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson (PHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 17.5 | 46 | 2.51% | 0.00% | 22.2 | 46 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer (LV) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 13.5 | 47 | 2.22% | 0.00% | 17.8 | 47 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.0 | 48 | 1.19% | 0.00% | 12.0 | 48 | 0 |
