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Touchdown Regression Report

2021 Season - Tight Ends - Weeks 1 to 17

What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.

Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.

  Actual Adjusted  
Player (Team)GAMESRecTD%RuTD%PTS.RANKRecTD%RuTD%PTS.ADJ. RANKRANK DIFF
Mark Andrews (BAL) 165.84%0.00%185.615.33%0.00%180.91 0
Travis Kelce (KC) 156.15%50.00%161.425.28%50.00%154.62 0
George Kittle (SF) 136.32%0.00%126.035.04%0.00%118.74-1
Dalton Schultz (DAL) 165.94% 0.00% 116.745.04%0.00%111.25-1
Dawson Knox (BUF) 1412.68% 0.00% 109.8510.85%0.00%102.08-3
Dallas Goedert (PHI) 155.26% 0.00% 109.064.47%0.00%105.47-1
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 160.91% 0.00% 107.872.85%0.00%120.63 +4
Hunter Henry (NE) 1512.00% 0.00% 105.7810.11%0.00%97.210-2
Rob Gronkowski 116.74% 0.00% 102.596.02%0.00%98.79 0
Zach Ertz (ARI) 164.46%0.00%98.3105.46%25.00%106.56 +4
Mike Gesicki (MIA) 161.79% 0.00% 89.8112.65%0.00%95.611 0
Noah Fant (SEA) 154.55% 0.00% 89.4124.55%0.00%89.412 0
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) 158.86% 0.00% 86.4138.49%0.00%84.613 0
T.J. Hockenson (DET) 124.76% 0.00% 84.3143.94%0.00%80.116-2
C.J. Uzomah (NYJ) 167.94% 0.00% 79.3156.03%0.00%72.119-4
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) 163.45% 0.00% 76.7164.34%0.00%81.315 +1
Jared Cook 154.82% 0.00% 76.4175.25%0.00%78.617 0
Darren Waller (LV) 102.15% 0.00% 76.3183.31%0.00%82.814 +4
David Njoku (CLE) 147.55%0.00%70.5197.33%0.00%69.820-1
Tyler Higbee (LAR) 145.88% 0.00% 68.5206.65%0.00%72.418 +2
Gerald Everett (LAC) 146.35%0.00%67.8215.98%0.00%66.422-1
Cole Kmet (CHI) 160.00%0.00%56.4221.94%25.00%68.721 +1
Evan Engram (JAC) 144.11%0.00%56.1233.68%25.00%55.724-1
Austin Hooper (TEN) 154.84% 0.00% 54.5245.51%0.00%57.023 +1
Mo Alie-Cox (IND) 168.89% 0.00% 52.9258.32%0.00%51.426-1
Foster Moreau (LV) 146.82% 0.00% 50.3264.93%0.00%45.330-4
Jack Doyle 146.98% 0.00% 49.1277.17%0.00%49.627 0
Cameron Brate (TB) 157.02% 0.00% 47.3288.84%0.00%53.525 +3
Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN) 135.00%0.00%43.0295.56%0.00%44.332-3
Dan Arnold (JAC) 110.00% 0.00% 40.8301.48%0.00%45.429 +1
Harrison Bryant (CLE) 1410.71% 0.00% 40.4319.30%0.00%38.038-7
Ricky Seals-Jones (NYG) 114.08% 0.00% 39.1325.93%0.00%44.531 +1
Donald Parham Jr. (LAC) 1411.11% 0.00% 39.03311.96%0.00%40.434-1
Jonnu Smith (NE) 152.22%0.00%38.9344.58%1.39%46.028 +6
Geoff Swaim (TEN) 157.50% 0.00% 38.8357.23%0.00%38.137-2
Ryan Griffin (CHI) 144.76% 0.00% 38.1364.91%0.00%38.536 0
Brevin Jordan (HOU) 810.71% 0.00% 35.8377.77%0.00%30.842-5
Hayden Hurst (CIN) 119.68% 0.00% 34.8387.72%0.00%31.241-3
Durham Smythe (MIA) 150.00%0.00%32.8393.30%0.00%40.933 +6
Robert Tonyan (GB) 86.90% 0.00% 32.4406.44%0.00%31.640 0
Tommy Tremble (CAR) 142.78%33.33%32.0414.14%33.33%34.939 +2
Kyle Rudolph 142.56% 0.00% 32.0425.56%0.00%39.035 +7
Will Dissly (SEA) 133.85% 0.00% 29.1434.02%0.00%29.445-2
Adam Trautman (NO) 104.65% 0.00% 28.5445.29%0.00%30.144 0
Anthony Firkser (ATL) 144.65% 0.00% 27.5454.77%0.00%27.846-1
James O'Shaughnessy (CHI) 70.00% 0.00% 26.4460.38%0.00%27.247-1
Josiah Deguara (GB) 136.06% 0.00% 23.9476.16%0.00%24.148-1
Marcedes Lewis (GB) 120.00% 0.00% 21.4485.61%0.00%30.843 +5
Ian Thomas (CAR) 140.00% 0.00% 18.8491.50%0.00%21.550-1
Jordan Akins (NYG) 120.00%0.00%17.7502.81%0.00%23.349 +1
Pharaoh Brown (HOU) 130.00% 0.00% 15.1510.27%0.00%15.751 0