Kyle Watchel of Football Guys gives fantasy owners the inside scoop on this week’s hot players to buy and the not so hot players to sell. With some last minute waiver/free agent picks up, as well.
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As Week 11 fast approaches, many fantasy owners are left to wonder how the rest of their season is going to pan out as the infirmary starts to get crowded. With season-ending injuries like Arian Foster’s back injury, or questionable injuries like Peyton Manning’s ankle incident, a lot of fantasy teams are left with the dilemma as to who to buy, who to trade, and who to drop entirely without taking a major hit to their rosters. To help make the decisions a little less difficult, we turn to Kyle Watchel of Football Guys for his recommendations on which players to buy for, and which players to sell while the demand is still there.
BUYING
Matt Ryan QB ATL – After beginning the season with two or more touchdown passes in six consecutive games, Ryan has notched only one touchdown in each of the past three games. Even without Julio Jones returning, Ryan’s fantasy value should return to relevancy. Roddy White has finally gotten back on the field and will help to make a respectable receiving corps. A poor running game and sieve-like defense will also force Atlanta to lean heavily on the passing game. On top of that, the Falcons are eyeing down a juicy three-game stretch from Week 13 to Week 15 (at BUF, at GB, WAS).
Matt Forte RB CHI – Marc Trestman’s offense has no troubles moving whether Jay Cutler or Josh McCown is under center. Forte is a centerpiece in that offense and has been one of the most consistent players in fantasy this season, finishing as a top-13 running back in seven of nine weeks so far in standard scoring. Overall, he ranks #7 among running backs in standard and that ranking rises to #2 in PPR scoring. There’s nothing fluky about those rankings and Forte is a player to target in a two-for-one deal on the heels of his worst outing of the year (33 rushing yards on 17 rushes and 16 receiving yards on four receptions).
Andre Brown RB NYG – So much for easing Brown back into the fold; after being sidelined since Week 3 of the NFL Preseason, the running back toted the ball 30 times in his debut for a total of 115 yards and a touchdown. Just last season, he saw extensive playing time in Weeks 2 and 3 after Ahmad Bradshaw suffered a neck injury. Brown then totaled 220 total yards and scored three touchdowns during those two games. He’s going to carry the load and should be viewed as a high-end RB2 for as long as he’s healthy.
Ben Tate RB HOU – Struggling with a painful injury (broken ribs), Tate has not been able to hit the ground running and take full advantage of the opportunity that Arian Foster’s injury created. However, after this past Sunday’s game, Tate had the following to say: “It’s easier. I felt like I could move a little better, catch better and have a little more wiggle.” He’s averaged 20.5 touches over the past two weeks and should continue to see a large workload going forward. While the rib injury may not disappear anytime soon, neither will the touches and he’s a sure fire RB2.
Victor Cruz WR NYG – Eli Manning has continued to be a drain on Cruz’ production, but the talented wideout has still managed to rank 15th at his position in standard scoring. With a welcoming four-game stretch ahead versus defenses that each rank in the bottom-ten for points allowed to wide receivers and quarterbacks (GB, DAL, @WAS, @SD), Cruz should still be viewed as a WR1 and will likely be a vital component of many fantasy playoff teams.
Vincent Jackson WR TB – The big-play receiver was a buy last week and the window has been extended after another underachieving game (three receptions for 28 yards). The good news is that he did receive eight targets this past week and is still on pace for 82 receptions, 1177 yards, and 7 touchdowns this season. He should return to WR1/2 value soon and has a prime matchup versus Atlanta on tap. In Week 7 versus the Falcons, he was a huge part of the game plan, notching 22 targets en route to a 10-138-2 line.
Cecil Shorts WR JAC – His first game after Justin Blackmon’s newest suspension did not go according to plan. For the first time this year, when not including the game in which Shorts exited early, he did not reach double-digit targets. He finished his day with only two receptions on four targets for 42 yards versus the Titans this past week. Shorts should soon return to seeing his 10 targets per game and be locked in as a WR2.
Roddy White WR ATL – After a five week absence, White returned to play on 55 of Atlanta’s 58 offensive snaps in a tough matchup versus Seattle. While he only caught one of his three targets for 20 yards, after the game White exclaimed, “it was the best I felt all season.” Unfortunately, he may see a lot of man coverage from Darrelle Revis in Week 11, but White is a potential WR2 for the stretch run and would make for a great addition to a wide receiver starved lineup.
Terrance Williams WR DAL – There’s a strong chance that Williams is sitting on another owners bench and being viewed as a nothing more than a spot-starter. On Sunday, he finished the game with only one-catch game, albeit a touchdown, and has now recorded two or less receptions in each of the past three games. While that doesn’t bode well for his Rest-Of-Season (ROS) prospects, he has actually averaged 7.3 targets in those games, which is a great sign. Dez Bryant’s back is also a growing concern and if that does worsen, Williams would catapult to a strong WR2.
SELLING
Mark Ingram RB NO – After two-and-a-half underwhelming seasons, Ingram had himself a career day, racking up 145 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries. Before that game, he had only averaged 16.7 yards on seven carries in his other three games played this season. He’s not yet a player you can start with any confidence and ESPN’s Mike Triplett also expects him to “remain the Saints’ third option” after Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. If he’s on the waiver wire, I wouldn’t consider adding him a priority. However, if he’s on your roster in a redraft league, trading him should be a priority.
DeAngelo Williams RB CAR – Still holding onto Williams? If so, you were granted with another opportunity to sell him for something of use after he was able to find paydirt this past week. He was on the field for a season low 20 snaps, only receiving eight carries and zero targets. By comparison, Jonathan Stewart saw 22 snaps and received 13 carries, while Mike Tolbert saw 36 snaps, received two carries and two receptions on his two targets. This is an ugly committee that you’ll be hard pressed to see much consistency from.
Marques Colston WR NO – Before posting a 7-107-1 line on Sunday, Colston was held to less than 18 yards in three consecutive games and many of his owners likely gave up hope on his season turning around. While Colston’s past consistency was remarkable, reaching 1000 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in six of the past seven seasons (he missed those marks in 2008 when limited to only 11 games), it’s still tough to start him as anything more than a WR3. I’d test the waters to see if you’re now able to get his pre-draft value of a WR2 in return.
Riley Cooper WR PHI – Five of his last eight receptions have been touchdowns – that’s simply not sustainable and major touchdown regression in bound to set in sooner than later. While he has seen consistent targets (at least five targets in each of the past five games), his 23.1 yards-per-reception would also be tough to sustain. You may be able to get one more productive game out of him in Week 11 versus Washington, but his value has peaked and his best games are likely behind him.
Tavon Austin WR STL – Austin supporters can finally exhale now that he has proven his playmaking skills can translate to the NFL. While he does have a bright future, he won’t be scratching the surface of his potential by seeing only 32.2% of snaps and 2.8 targets per game, which are his averages for the Rams’ last five games.
Julius Thomas TE DEN – Through the seasons first five weeks, Thomas averaged 7.2 targets, 5.4 receptions, 71.8 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game. In the following four weeks, those averages have dropped to 5.3 targets, 3.8 receptions, 47.0 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. The tight end position has been ravaged by injuries, but I would still be fielding offers for Thomas, who should more resemble the second set of averages from here-on-out.
WAIVER PICKUPS
Brian Leonard RB TB / Bobby Rainey RB TB – Just eight snaps into Tampa Bay’s game on Monday night, Mike James suffered a broken ankle and his promising ROS came to a crashing halt. Leonard inherited the lead role and saw 48 snaps, totaling 57 yards on 20 carries on the ground and 16 yards on two receptions in the air. Rainey’s 11 snaps were much more efficient: 8 carries for 45 yards and a touchdown as a runner and adding one 11-yard reception. As the lead back, Leonard can be viewed as a serviceable Flex option, with a boost in PPR leagues. Rainey should also be rostered and would be a stronger Flex play if he is able flip roles, although Greg Schiano may be reluctant to go away from his former Rutgers player.
Dennis Johnson RB HOU – With Foster down and out, Tate moves into the lead role, making room for a new handcuff in Houston. Johnson would simply dominate touches in the event that Tate misses time and makes for a strong lottery ticket. He should be rostered in all 12-team leagues.
Rishard Matthews WR MIA – Ryan Tannehill sure loves the short passing game, which the poor offensive line likely attributes to. In the preseason, Dustin Keller was poised to lead Miami’s receivers, but suffered a brutal season-ending knee injury. Then Brandon Gibson developed into Tannehill’s check-down option, but Gibson also succumbed to a season-ending knee injury. It didn’t take long for Matthews to fill that role and the young receiver posted a monster 11-120-2 line. He’ll likely be picked up in many leagues and could serve as a fill-in WR4, but makes for a better scoop-and-sell.
*All snap counts and targets in this article are courtesy of ProFootballFocus.com
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