Melvin Gordon is this year’s top rookie running back in redraft leagues
Below is a breakdown of rookie running backs, ranked from those most likely to make an instant impact to players who will have to wait to be useful in fantasy football. If a rookie isn’t on this list, they’re not worth fantasy consideration as anything more than a long-shot sleeper to be picked up off waivers later. For example, I’ve left the Titans off this list, even though they drafted 2 runners, simply because I don’t think the Titans are a team with much value in fantasy.
For an in-depth profiles of each rookie, check out my rookie runner preview, written before the draft.
Each running back has been graded for 2015 value, as well as dynasty/keeper league value. All grades are based on 12-team leagues. An “A” is draftable as early as rounds 2-3; a “B” is worthy of consideration during the middle rounds, and a “C” or lower isn’t draftable until late rounds after you’ve filled out your starters.
MELVIN GORDON
Team: Chargers
2015 Grade: A
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: B
Comparable to: Jamaal Charles
Gordon finds himself in the best situation among all rookies. Ryan Mathews is gone and buried on the Eagles depth chart and Gordon was drafted to be a primary ball carrier. With Branden Oliver, Danny Woodhead and Donald Brown only challenging him on passing downs, Melvin Gordon is the only rookie with a clear-cut starting job Week 1. He isn’t as talented as top runner Todd Gurley, which is why he’s slightly lower-rated as a keeper, but he’s got the most instant value in 2015.
T.J. YELDON
Team: Jaguars
2015 Grade: B
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: B
Comparable to: DeAngelo Williams
The Jaguars grabbed Yeldon in the early part of the 2nd Round, which tells you how much they wanted him. The 3rd runner off the board after Gurley and Gordon, the Jaguars have high hopes for Yeldon as a 3-down back. Forget Toby Gerhart and off season acquisition Bernard Pierce; expect them to serve as nothing more than depth and/or blockers. Denard Robinson will likely move back to his more natural change-of-pace/passing downs role after showing that his body couldn’t hold up as an every-down back in 2014.
TEVIN COLEMAN
Team: Falcons
2015 Grade: B
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: B
Comparable to: Darren McFadden
Steven Jackson is gone and it never seemed like Devonta Freeman or Antone Smith were beloved by the Falcons staff, despite showing flashes of talent. New head coach Dan Quinn comes from Seattle, where he served as defensive coordinator and watched one of the only remaining bell-cow backs (Marshawn Lynch) take time off the clock and grind opposing teams down to nothing. Drafted in round 3, something tells me Quinn wants Coleman to become the bell cow back that defensive minded coaches covet. Factor in Matt Ryan and Julio Jones keeping defenses out of the box and you may have something special here.
TODD GURLEY
Team: Rams
2015 Grade: C
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: A+++
Comparable to: Adrian Peterson
Todd Gurley is the most talented runner in the 2015 rookie class and a ceiling similar to that of Adrian Peterson. Having said that, he’s going to be brought along slowly by Rams’ Coach Jeff Fisher to ensure he’s 100% healthy from his ACL reconstruction leading up to the draft. Expect Gurley to begin the season on the injured/designated to return list and also expect him to be eased into the offense, splitting carries with productive 2nd year Rams runner Tre Mason.
By week 8 or 9 of the 2015 season, Todd Gurley could be a Top 5 running back in fantasy football. Having said that, if you don’t have 2 other strong RB starters, you’re out of the playoffs at that point. Draft Todd Gurley with expectations that he’ll be a stud from the 2016 season and beyond, so owners in keeper leagues should take more notice than owners looking for instant help in 2015.
JAY AJAYI
Team: Dolphins
2015 Grade: B
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: D
Comparable to: Chris Ivory
Jay Ajayi’s knee issue, which was described by Mike Mayock as “bone on bone” caused a very talented workhorse runner to slide down to Round 5 of the NFL draft. The Dolphins got great value taking a chance on Ajayi late, despite injury concerns. With Daniel Thomas gone and the Dolphins repeatedly using any excuse to not hand Lamar Miller a full workload, it looks like Ajayi could challenge for the starting job. If Ajayi can stay healthy, I like him enough as an early-season “why not?” flex starter with RB2 upside later in 2015. Having said that, Ajayi’s knee problems take a toll on his long-term keeper value as he was run into the ground in college with more touches than most mortal bodies can handle.
AMEER ABDULLAH
Team: Lions
2015 Grade: C in standard leagues; B- in PPR.
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: B+
Comparable to: Giovanni Bernard
Ameer Abdullah is the highest-character, hardest-working runner in the 2015 class. He isn’t as naturally talented as guys like Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon but he’s showed significant flashes in college and I expect him to develop nicely for the Lions as a change-of-pace back behind Joique Bell. Abdullah will more than likely edge out Theo Riddick for a more significant role behind Bell this season and potentially the starting role for 2016 and beyond, which is why I like him a lot more in keeper/dynasty leagues.
DUKE JOHNSON
Team: Browns
2015 Grade: C in standard leagues; B in PPR
Dynasty/Keeper Grade: B+
Comparable to: C.J. Spiller
Duke Johnson has been drafted into a very confusing dark useless place known as the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are a hot mess and if given the option they’ll always make the wrong decision. Having said that, Johnson happens to be in a decent situation to secure passing-down playing time. Expect second-year runner Terrence West to be phased out of the Browns offense and take more of a backup role to the more talented power runner Isaiah Crowell and look forward to Duke Johnson taking over most if not all passing down work, given his superior speed, agility and catching skills.
Isaac Leicht is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Isaac, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Fantasy_Dude.
