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MLB Weekly Planner: Week 13 (6/29 – 7/5)

FTA-LogoJamie Calandro breaks down week 13’s top matchups and streaming options.

This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Jamie head to Fantasy Team Advice.

Welcome to this edition of the fantasy baseball planner for Week 13 (6/29-7/5). Whether you play in a league that offers weekly or daily lineup changes, you can still gain a distinct advantage by scouring the matchups for the week ahead and by planning accordingly. This is the time to get your FAAB bids in or to make your waiver claims, and I’m here to help target to right guys.

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STREAMING PITCHERS

TWO-START OPTIONS

Jaime Garcia, STL – vs CHW, vs SD
Garcia has two nice home starts this week, and both of his opponents rank in the bottom ten in the league in wOBA and wRC+. The White Sox in particular are a very favorable matchup for Garcia, as they rank dead last in wOBA against LHP. Garcia’s 1.69 ERA is likely unsustainable, but a 3.03/2.97 FIP/xFIP slash at least indicates his peripherals are well above-average. His 6.00 K/9 needs to improve, but he is a good bet for two wins and a solid ERA/WHIP.

C.J. Wilson, LAA – vs NYY, @ TEX
It’s weird to say this (given how volatile Wilson can be), but he’s actually been very consistent for the Angels this year. His 3.92 ERA (while not exceptional) is backed up by a 3.81 FIP and 3.85 xFIP, and he has a solid 45% GB rate the last three years. His matchups this week are better than average for him from the standpoint that both are very left-handed, and Wilson has allowed a career .258 wOBA and 0.43 HR/9 to LHB.

Kyle Hendricks, CHC – @NYM, vs MIA
If Hendricks is unowned in your league, I think it makes a lot of sense to pick him up and stream him for the week. He faces the Mets and Marlins who rank 28th and 26th, respectively, in wOBA vs RHP this season. The Mets in particular are a tremendous matchup as they have struck out the third most against RHP since June 1, and really only feature two lefties that can do any damage (Granderson and Duda). Hendricks has a solid 3.72/3.60 FIP/xFIP slash for such a young pitcher.

ONE-START WONDERS

Jose Fernandez, MIA – vs SF
I don’t care what his pitch count is. You haven’t stashed him this long to bench him after he is activated. The Giants are not the most ideal matchup (third in the league in both wOBA and wRC+), but Fernandez was an elite pitcher before he went down. He is supposedly hitting 98-99 MPH and has a 12.19 K/9 before his injury. I’d temper expectations in daily leagues, but full go steam ahead in your seasonals.

Jesse Hahn, OAK – vs COL
Hahn has been very effective over the last five starts, posting quality starts in four of them and allowing one run or less in three of them. He has kept the ball in the park wonderfully, allowing only three HR this season, and the Rockies take a significant hit in wOBA when they are away from Coors Field. He won’t strike out a lot of batters, but he has an elite 52% GB rate and will pitch in one of the best pitchers’ parks in the league.

Julio Teheran, ATL – vs PHI
Teheran has been a colossal disappointment this season, but has been better in three of the last four starts (only got knocked around in Boston). His FIP is a run and a half higher than it was last season, so you have to figure there is room for improvement. His start this week is against the Phillies, who rank last in both overall team wOBA and wRC+. He can’t screw this up, right?

STREAMING HITTERS – START OR SIT?

START

Gerardo Parra, MIL
The Brewers have a very favorable schedule this week, playing four games in Philly and three in Cincinnati. For the most part, they not only manage to avoid any aces (Cole Hamels is the only one going), but second-tier starters as well. The Brewers will face the likes of Sean O’Sullivan, Aaron Harang, Chad Billingsley, Michael Lorenzen, and Mike Leake all in one week (no Cueto!), who all have very below-average splits against LHB. Parra has sort of entrenched himself into that leadoff spot lately and is slashing a .288/.317/.447 against RHP this year.

Adam Lind, MIL
Lind is a nice guy to own for occasions just like this. I’m sure (unless your team is riddled with injuries) that you have the luxury of streaming him in and out. This is an “in” week. He hits cleanup and has a distinct platoon advantage over most of his opponents this week. Lind has a career .369 wOBA and .217 ISO against RHP, and I think he’s good for a couple homers this week

Jimmy Paredes, BAL
Paredes has hit .526 over the last seven games with a homer and four RBI, and should carry his hot streak into a very favorable week against the White Sox and Rangers. Being a switch-hitter, Paredes doesn’t lose the platoon edge, and will be facing pitchers like Carlos Rodon, John Danks, Wandy Rodriguez, and Nick Martinez (who we all knew would see regression sooner or later). His multi-positional versatility gives him added value as you construct your lineups this week.

SIT

Mark Trumbo, SEA
He has really struggled in his transition to Seattle and now finds himself hitting sixth (and even seventh) in the lineup. Trumbo is always a nice source of power, but his chances are lessened with games in San Diego and Oakland. In addition, Trumbo will be facing four solid RHP this week (Kennedy, Shields, Chavez, Gray), and even Kendall Graveman has been OK at limiting right-handed power. Trumbo has a 22.6 K% and a -0.1 WAR, so don’t feel afraid to sit him.

Lucas Duda, NYM
This pick comes with a bit of a caveat. You’re really only sitting Duda if you have another viable alternative. Don’t go picking up Logan Morrison just to sit Duda. However, the matchups for Duda are very unfavorable this week. He spends his entire time in pitchers’ parks (NY and LA), and two of his opponents will be power lefties Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw. Duda will also face Jake Arrieta and Zack Grienke who are very effective at neutralizing left-handed production. Duda is significantly worse against LHP, posting a meager .126 ISO.

Jose Abreu, CHW (and all other White Sox)
Yes, I am telling you to sit Jose Abreu, along with his teammates. You do yourself a disservice starting players from teams on a five-game week (especially if you’re in a head-to-head week). Chicago’s series with Baltimore is enticing, but it’s not enough to make up for the downside of them not playing at all on off-days. In addition, two of the White Sox’ games are in St. Louis, where they will lose the DH. The pitchers in that series will be Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia, so I could conceivably see a scenario where Abreu sits against Lynn and LaRoche sits against Garcia, giving each of them only four games instead of five. If Adam Lind is available, I like him WAY more than Abreu this week.

Jamie is the Lead Baseball Writer for Fantasy Team Advice. Be sure to check back next Sunday for his Weekly Planner. For questions and answers, find him on Twitter @jac3600.

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