Is Randall Cobb worth his 24th ADP?

This past offseason, the Packers signed Randall Cobb to a four-year, $40 million contract with $17 million guaranteed to stay in Green Bay. While that is quite an investment in a guy who is second in targets to teammate Jordy Nelson, Cobb has plenty of stand-alone value as a receiver. While the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field is far from forgiving, the Packers’ offense and quarterback Aaron Rodgers are very receiver-friendly. At a current average draft position of 22nd overall, Cobb has been the ninth wide receiver off the board. Is Cobb worth an early second round pick or is he overvalued due to his quarterback situation and one year of stellar production?

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Since being selected by the Packers, Cobb has been a part of a formidable receiving corps and a prolific return man. In his rookie season, Cobb was fifth on the Packers’ depth chart behind Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones and Jordy Nelson. With so many talented wide receivers in front of him, Jones was used primarily as a return man that season. In 2012, Cobb continued his role as a returner accumulating 964 yards. Cobb also started eight games at receiver due to injuries to Jennings, Driver and Nelson, compiling 80 receptions for 954 yards and eight touchdowns. That season, Cobb finished as WR18 with 154.6 fantasy points.  He also set a Packers’ single-season record with 2,342 combined net yards consisting of 954 receiving yards, 132 rushing yards, 964 yards on kickoff returns and 292 yards on punt returns.

While 2013 would be lost due to injury, Cobb got another chance at stardom in 2014 thanks to Jones’ departure. For the first time in his career, Cobb played in all 16 games for the Packers. He seized the opportunity and caught 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns, and finished sixth among wide receivers (four spots behind Nelson) with 202.4 fantasy points.

Although 2014 was a career year for Cobb, there are some things to consider before drafting him. At 5’10 and 192 lbs., Cobb is one of the best slot receivers in the game, but his production will depend mostly on his health.  Remember, 2014 was the first season that Cobb played in all 16 games and slot receivers are sometimes asked to make catches in traffic or behind the line of scrimmage. This could be a cause for concern for potential Cobb owners due to the injury risks.

While not necessarily indicative of production, the volume of targets a receiver gets increases the likelihood of production. In 2014, Cobb was targeted by Aaron Rodgers 127 times as opposed to Jordy Nelson, who was targeted 151 times. While his production with fewer targets than Nelson was impressive (91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns), Cobb’s fantasy points were sporadic and heavily reliant on touchdowns. He had only five games over 100 yards receiving and five games where he scored less than ten fantasy points in standard scoring leagues. Additionally, Cobb scored 10 touchdowns during the first nine weeks of the season.

However, Cobb scored only twice over the final seven weeks. I am not sure that he will be able to repeat that number of touchdowns, as that type of production is typically fluky. For those considering drafting Cobb in PPR leagues, he finished 18th overall and eighth among wide receivers with 293.4 fantasy points. Interestingly, Cobb averaged 5.7 receptions per game, which ranked tenth overall in 2014.

Despite the aforementioned concerns, it is undeniable that Randall Cobb is a borderline WR1/WR2. I like him at his current average draft position of 24th overall, I plan on giving him a long look in my leagues. Regardless of your draft strategy, if Cobb is available on your draft day, you should give him a look as well.

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Phil Falvo is a correspondent for FantasyPros. To read more from Phil, you can check out his archive or follow him @FalvoPS01.