Draftpot NFL Value Plays: Week 2
Here we are in the second week of the NFL season and everything we know about the NFL in 2015 has an opportunity to change. Sure, there will be some Week 1 studs that emerge and stay at the top of their player pool for the rest of the season, but there are still a lot of games left to play and plenty of opportunities for poor Week 1 performers to bounce back. This week I’m looking at players outside the top “rows” in their pool. For instance, if you bring up quarterbacks in the DraftPot lineup selection page, all three of my picks will come from that third “row” of players. These players are priced lower than the top competition, but I think they can finish among the top 5-10 in scoring at their position for the week.
Tom Brady – NE @ BUF – 18.88 DPPG
Brady is the 15th highest quarterback in price this week, and I think that’s pretty low given his ceiling. This pick is VERY narrative driven, so before I get to that let’s look at how Brady performed last year in Buffalo. The Patriots and the Bills squared off in Buffalo for their 2014 Week 6 matchup. In that game Brady threw for 361 yards and four touchdowns on 37 attempts. The Patriots won 37-22, scoring all of their points after being shut out in the first quarter. If I told you Brady would likely do the same thing this year, he’d be a no-brainer, right?
I think so. I think Brady and the Patriots want to beat their AFC foe Rex Ryan and his new team in Buffalo, and they want it to look ugly for the Bills. Last year the Bills held the Patriots to 50 yards rushing on 27 attempts. In Week 1, the Colts ran for 64 yards on 17 total attempts, 20 of those yards came from Andrew Luck. I think Brady and the Patriots want to throw against the Bills. Brady is playing with a few chips on his shoulder and he’s better when he’s angry, right? I don’t know the answer to that, but I’m willing to bet on the narrative.
Marcus Mariota – TEN @ CLE – 15.00
I can’t not include Mariota even though I think he’ll be rostered by a lot of players looking for value at the quarterback position. His price is just too good to ignore. The Titans play the Browns, who have a decent pass defense and are more prone to the run. I think this can help Mariota, who only needed 13 completions to rack up 209 yards and four touchdown passes in Week 1. Play-action will be essential to his success, and he has reliable targets that can get open for him and make plays. Mariota excelled with his legs in college, and he might get more opportunities to show off his running ability in Week 2 as Tennessee slowly opens up the offense for their rookie quarterback.
- Carson Palmer – ARI @ CHI – 18.89 DPPG
Palmer is technically in the second row but I still like his value a lot this week against a Chicago Bears team that finished 30th in the league last year in passing yards per game and allowed three passing touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in Week 1.
- Sam Bradford – PHI vs. DAL – 17.93 DPPG
- Matthew Stafford – DET @ MIN – 16.83 DPPG
Ameer Abdullah – DET @ MIN – 10.00 DPPG
We saw Carlos Hyde carve up the Vikings defense last week, and I think Abdullah has to be salivating at the opportunities he’ll have against Minnesota’s leaky run defense in Week 2. Abdullah has game-breaking speed and is useful as both a runner and a pass catcher. Last year, the Vikings were 25th in the league with 121.4 rushing yards allowed per game.
Chris Ivory – NYJ @ IND – 9.65 DPPG
Ivory is priced like a running back in a time share even though he’s a workhorse. He received 20 carries in Week 1 against the Browns and I think he’ll receive around that many this week as the Jets try to keep Andrew Luck off the field. Last season the Colts were 18th in the NFL with 113.4 yards allowed per game. Last week, the Bills were able to rack up 147 yards on the ground against Indianapolis.
- Carlos Hyde – SF @ PIT – 7.22 DPPG
- Joseph Randle – DAL @ PHI – 4.52 DPPG
- Bishop Sankey – TEN @ CLE – 7.45 DPPG
Jarvis Landry – MIA @ JAC – 13.13 DPPG
I’m all in on Landry this week in every game imaginable. He’s in ALL of my lineups. Landry’s Week 1 was salvaged by a late punt return for a touchdown which gave him enough points to finish strong, but I think he’ll emerge more in the passing game against Jacksonville this week. He was targeted a team-high 12 times against Washington in Week 1 and came away with eight receptions for 53 yards. I think the targets carry over, and Landry will improve on his Week 1 production against a Jaguars defense that finished 22nd in the league last season with 243.7 passing yards allowed per game.
Brandon Coleman – NO vs. TB – 10.00 DPPG
Coleman was awarded the “MVP” of Saints training camp by coach Sean Payton and he built on his camp performance with four receptions for 41 yards at a touchdown on seven targets Week 1. Coleman is a big target for Drew Brees, and should have no trouble hauling in passes against a Tampa defense that looked very bad in Week 1.
- Nelson Agholor – PHI vs. DAL – 10.00 DPPG
- John Brown – ARI @ CHI – 9.42 DPPG
- Tavon Austin – STL @ WAS – 6.94 DPPG
- Donte Moncrief – IND vs. NYJ – 6.93 DPPG
Jordan Cameron – MIA @ JAC – 9.28 DPPG
Remember how I mentioned I really like Landry this week? Well I like Miami tight end Jordan Cameron a lot too. Cameron finished second in targets to Landry’s 12 with seven of his own, and he hauled in four of those for 73 yards. Cameron is a very reliable target for Ryan Tannehill and I expect him to see a bulk of the passing targets alongside Landry this week.