The Redskins D/ST has a favorable matchup Week 7
Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for four straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.
Is streaming defenses actually worth it?
It’s Week 7. The fantasy regular season could be virtually half-finished for some of us. For the rest of us it’s fast approaching either way. Some of us have been really happy with our D/STs. Way back before Week 1, my recommended draft strategy was to target either the Carolina Panthers or the New York Jets at the end of your drafts. Carolina (drafted as the 11th defense off the board) scored 21 week 1 points and the Jets (8th off the board) scored 17, and one of those two units would have been available to savvy drafters in most drafts.
But some of us didn’t get so lucky. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a disastrous Week 1 streaming play. Drafted as the 24th defense off the board in MFL10s, they were sure to be available in almost every league, but finished with just one point. By the end of Week 1, the Panthers, Jets, Broncos, and other top defenses would start to get picked off one by one, and most owners don’t drop a defense like that in bad matchups.
A lot of us who have been streaming have been hurting a little bit this year. Maybe a lot. /u/j1mb0 on Reddit does an excellent analysis each week of how effective streaming really is, and through 6 weeks, the Effective Points/Game of streaming using this column is averaging approximately 8+ points per game. While that score is rarely going to turn a good draft into a bad team, it seems a little disappointing at first glance.
“So why don’t I just draft a better defense next year, huh?”
Well that’s the goal, isn’t it? Every year, there seems to be at least one defense – and sometimes more – that turns in an absolutely game-changing weekly score. They transcend streaming. In 2012, this was the Chicago Bears. In 2013, the Kansas City Chiefs. Last year it was the Philadelphia Eagles. Whether by luck, skill, or both, all three of these teams had ludicrous scores through the first half of their respective seasons. After each stud D/ST, there were a handful of tier 1/1.5 defenses that would have given you a great average weekly score.
And then once you start getting out of that tier, it’s always a bunch of mediocrity. This is where streamers live to begin with. It’s disingenuous to compare your own streaming results with what Denver would have gotten you. At the moment, the top tiers of defenses are averaging a very robust 10-11+ points per game.
For people who drafted the Broncos, they might be wondering why anybody deals with streaming to begin with. A number of D/STs have matched or outperformed their ADP; Seattle, St. Louis, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Arizona, among others. A number of others didn’t. There’s someone who drafted the Bills or the Texans (second and third off the board, respectively, from MFL ADP) and were left with below average scores for both. Or they drafted the Dolphins, got rewarded in Week 1, and potentially punted their season in Weeks 2-5. Not everybody has a choice, and for them streaming is the only remaining play.
Week 6 was rough. The Titans got rolled over by Miami. Favored in Vegas in a low-scoring game, the Titans D/ST managed to salvage a three-point score in the most disappointing result of the weekend. This is a perfect reminder of why I hate the “high floor” marking, since most people would probably agree that three doesn’t seem very high. But I’m sure that if you took all of the D/ST scores that also conceded 38 points, you’d notice they certainly average fewer than three points per game. This is that high floor in action. Sucks, doesn’t it?
Averages by tier
1 & 1.5: 10
2 & 2.5: 6.3
3 & 3.5: 3.3
The average D/ST score for Week 6 was 8.7 points. Remember, when underdogs win, we often lose.
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Week 7 D/ST Scoring (Team – expected points – tier)
- St. Louis Rams – 12.3 – 1
- Carolina Panthers – 11.0 – 1
- Arizona Cardinals – 11.0 – 1
- New England Patriots – 10.9 – 1
- Seattle Seahawks – 10.2 – 1.5
- Buffalo Bills – 10.1 – 1.5
- Washington Redskins – 10.0 – 1.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 9.9 – 2
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9.8 – 2
- Atlanta Falcons – 9.8 – 2
- Minnesota Vikings – 9.5 – 2
- New York Giants – 9.2 – 2.5
- Philadelphia Eagles – 8.8 – 2.5
- Tennessee Titans – 8.6 – 2.5
- Miami Dolphins – 8.5 – 2.5
- Detroit Lions – 7.9 – 3
On bye this week are Denver (mercifully), Chicago, Cincinnati, and Green Bay. It’s going to be rough out there for bench space. Denver cannot be dropped, while all the rest probably can be. Green Bay is close; it depends on depth of league and your own roster quality. They’ve got decent matchups coming out of their bye, but I think they’ve also played above their heads thus far.
Tier 1: St. Louis, Carolina, Arizona, New England
If you are one of the owners who kept St. Louis through their bye week (with Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Green Bay matchups where they scored a very robust 11, 11, then 12 points respectively), here’s the beginning of your reward. I would not be among your ranks, we care about correct choices over correct results, but it still remains to be seen which choice was correct.
Right now, it doesn’t look good, and the Rams look great. They find themselves in the perfect D/ST trifecta:
- Great defense favored* at home,
- Mistake-prone opposing quarterback or offensive line, leading to more sacks or turnovers per possession, and
- High volume passing offenses that offer more dropbacks and pass attempts, and thus more opportunities for turnovers
*Note that while low-scoring games are a little preferred, we care less about the score than any other major factor. We want turnovers, sacks, and defensive TDs.
Sign me up!
I could say similar things about the Panthers, but with the opposite results. In Weeks 1 through 4, I recommended them very highly every week – first, fourth, fourth, and then first again – and recommended dropping them in Week 5. The responses to that recommendation have been mixed and so have the results. The Panthers scored just five points in Week 6, but are showing a high projected value once again. They’re a great example of a team with a high projection but a modest scoring profile for points allowed. Bradford and the Eagles simply have so many turnovers, and Carolina is good enough to take advantage, that this becomes a strong play.
The Cardinals are another team that seemed underrated by the algorithm for weeks, but have since come into line. Their projected ranking was 17th, 8th, 8th, 6th, 7th, and 2nd, and they’re currently the second-highest scoring D/ST. It should be no surprise. With the exception of their game on Sunday, they’ve quite convincingly been the best team in the NFC. Their opponent Baltimore has not conceded great scores to D/STs, but they’ve mostly only punished their weaker opponents. Denver, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco averaged more than 10 points per game against the Ravens, and the Cardinals should expect to join them.
New England gets one of my favorite matchups of any given week, Ryan Fitzpatrick as a road dog. I love him as a QB and as a player, but he’s always a great fade. Thanks Fitzy. Dial up the New England defense and no regret. The Jets are not the pushovers that they’ve been in recent years, but the Patriots are still nine-point favorites at home, and Fitzpatrick still throws a bunch of very exploitable passes.
Tier 1.5: Seattle, Buffalo, Washington
This tier offers no surprise once you remember “Washington” is code-word for “Tampa Bay’s opponent.” Jameis Winston has been a very mistake-prone quarterback, their offense has been very bad, and they’ve conceded some great scores to opposing D/STs. The only D/ST they’ve punished all season has been Jacksonville, with their other four opponents averaging almost 13 points per game. Washington have themselves been a surprisingly decent fantasy defense, and game flow should encourage Tampa to throw rather than run.
Seattle and Buffalo, meanwhile, should surprise nobody. Buffalo gets an improved-but-still-exploitable Jaguars offense to battle, and they were a top preseason defense. The Seahawks have been great for most of each game and horrible for the fourth quarter. We can expect that to even out a little bit, and the matchup is great. The Santa Clara turf might put up more of a fight than the 49ers, but expect an ugly game on both sides.
The top tiers have a lot of strong choices this week. It’s a lot of chalk and a lot to like for each of them.
Tier 2 & 2.5: Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Minnesota, New York Giants, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Miami
Tons of choices for streamers and the unlucky few that don’t get one of those top seven choices. I think it’s pretty easy to say Tampa Bay is the weakest of this set, followed by Tennessee. Tampa has benefited strongly from a larger-than-expected number of fumbles forced, and that’s making them look a little better than they really are. Tennessee, meanwhile, has so many questions at the QB position right now that we can safely stay away. A bad QB is a huge liability to your D/STs, so backups mean beware.
All the rest of the choices have as many positives as they do negatives. The Steelers may be the one to buck that trend, since they get a very anemic Chiefs offense and have been pretty good defensively. Even though the game is in Kansas City and Alex Smith is not normally a strong fade, Jamaal Charles’ absence from the roster has been painful for the Chiefs.
Minnesota also stands a little bit above the rest. They were an average-rated play in Week 6 and came through with a solidly average score, but it was better than many of the recommended plays in its tier. Their stretch of solid matchups continue with the Lions, who provide a relatively enticing boom/bust matchup for the Vikings.
Most people with the Eagles will want to just keep starting them, since their tier 2 rating allows you to table the decision to drop them for one more week. They have a bye next week, but another stretch of decent matchups afterward.
Is Miami for real? Who on earth knows? They’re definitely not a six sack per game team, that’s for sure, and the Tennessee offense seemed extremely hampered by Mariota’s injury. I’m really surprised he stayed in as long as he did. That said, the Houston offense doesn’t seem much better, but the Houston offense has performed surprisingly well against D/STs. They’ve allowed just one above-average score (last week to Jacksonville) and have otherwise been pretty brutal. I think we can safely stay away in most formats from Miami, and I’d only take them here over Tennessee or Tampa Bay.
And finally, a plea to Roger Goodell:
Dear Roger,
Please stop allowing the NFC East to play each other on Sunday or Monday Night Football.
Sincerely,
The rest of America
The Giants were bad last night, the Eagles were bad last night, and somehow one of those two teams managed to win the game by the end. The Eagles won, and everybody else lost. The Giants had a very underrated squad coming into the game, but their lack of depth and volume of injuries is killer (Uani Unga might be the worst linebacker in the league, and they had a fullback – a fullback! – in pass rush). Eli threw three interceptions and looked pretty bad doing it, and that could turn into a liability down the road. I would lean toward this game being among his worst all season, so they can be started this weekend with a medium amount of confidence.
Lots of great choices this week. It’s going to be hard to go wrong, which means there are going to be a lot of disappointed owners next week.
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Best of luck in Week 7!
