The Lions’ D/ST have a low floor but high ceiling for Week 16
Dylan Lerch is one of the pioneers of combining Las Vegas with fantasy football, and he has been writing his Defense Wins Championships column for four straight seasons. Each installment can be found at Empeopled.com every Tuesday morning. You can follow him on Twitter @dtlerch.
NFL football is at a bit of a crossroads. Maybe it’s been at one for a few years, but it’s quite possible that the game we enjoy today is not going to resemble what we get in the future, and that gets more and more obvious each week we see these extraordinary athletes do extraordinary things. Unfortunately, the life of an NFL athlete is far from glamorous. For every player like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady (who have their own share of health problems both before and after retirement), you have guys that struggle every day on the practice squad for their chance to shine on special teams or for a couple of snaps per game under the bright lights.
The average player in the NFL plays between three-to-four years, and they’ve worked for most of their life to get even that slim opportunity. They put their bodies through hell – by choice, for sure – for a relatively meager salary. Most players aren’t making millions of dollars per year, or even seven figures in their career. Many are constantly on the move from one city to another, lacking both job security and upward mobility, and they face the same long-term health questions as the ones signing seven-, eight- or nine-figure contracts.
Most of us are probably familiar with the stories of Junior Seau or Jovan Belcher. Traumatic brain injury is no joke, and it’s just one of dozens of hazards for NFL athletes to navigate through during their careers.
These are people, playing a game both for a living and for our enjoyment. They have mothers, fathers, sisters, brothers, and often children. They don’t need your ire when they struggle on the field. They don’t need your rage when they sit out from injury. They need your fandom, your compassion, and your understanding that what they do is a struggle every day to follow their dreams of playing football for a living. It’s important as a fantasy player to separate who these athletes are as people vs who they are on your fantasy team, but it’s critical to never forget that they’re people first and foremost.
Averages by tier
1 & 1.5: 15.4
2 & 2.5: 8.73 & 3.5: 6
3 & 3.5: 6
Overall average was 7.4, which is a little low for what we’ve gotten used to, but there were plenty of strong options at the top.
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Week 16 (!) D/ST Scoring (team – expected value – tier)
- Kansas City Chiefs – 12.0 – 1
- Denver Broncos – 10.7 – 1.5
- Carolina Panthers – 10.6 – 1.5
- Detroit Lions – 10.4 – 1.5
- Seattle Seahawks – 10.0 – 1.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers – 10.0 – 1.5
- Tennessee Titans – 9.3 – 2
- New England Patriots – 9.1 – 2
- Houston Texans – 9.1 – 2
- Cincinnati Bengals – 8.8 – 2
- Oakland Raiders – 8.8 – 2
- Buffalo Bills – 8.6 – 2.5
- Miami Dolphins – 8.6 – 2.5
- Philadelphia Eagles – 8.6 – 2.5
- Arizona Cardinals – 8.3 – 3
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8.1 – 3
It’s a pretty clean tier break after Tampa Bay, so it’s safe to disregard anything lower in most leagues. The only D/ST worth considering in deeper formats is Minnesota, who project 7.5 points and a relatively high floor.
Tier 1: Kansas City
The Kansas City Chiefs have had quite the remarkable season. Not unlike 2013, they’ve been the beneficiary of a great schedule and great timing with that schedule, and Week 16 is no different. Squaring off against the Chiefs is the hapless Cleveland Browns, and keeping with the season of giving, the Browns have been extraordinarily generous to opposing D/STs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have a very realistic chance of finishing the 2015 season as the No. 1 scoring D/ST. They’ve scored single digits just once since Week 5, and 19+ three times since their Week 9 bye.
Completely ludicrous. There’s no reason to think it won’t continue, so plug them in one more week and profit. Either they follow through with a top-tier score, or you can rest easy Monday morning knowing you did the best you could. Either way, you’re a winner.
Tier 1.5: Denver, Carolina, Detroit, Seattle, Pittsburgh
This tier is stretched and is not very clear at first glance, but a little bit of dissection helps unmuddy the waters. Most real-world examples will be pretty simple, because Denver, Carolina, and Seattle are available in approximately zero competitive leagues.
That said, Denver and Seattle show the most separation from the others on this tier. Seattle has a great matchup, despite the Rams’ stingy offensive line, as St. Louis has the lowest Vegas total I’ve seen for any team this year. It would be an upset if they scored two touchdowns, let alone actually stayed competitive in this game. Meanwhile, Denver has been a top-tier D/ST for most of the season, even if they’ve cooled off significantly in the second half. The Broncos still have most of the same personnel on defense, they’re going to be at home, and the Bengals’ team with A.J. McCarron simply isn’t as good offensively as with Andy Dalton.
The scoring profile for the Carolina Panthers is very similar to last week. While Carolina dominated the scoreboard for most of the game, they ultimately conceded 35 points to a mediocre Giants’ team, and they go south to Atlanta for their Week 16 tilt. This time, they’re seven-point favorites instead of just four points, but the scoring total is slightly higher too. Make no mistake, the Falcons are a bad football team, but this one worries me. I would be looking to pivot into Detroit or Pittsburgh for this week as a Panthers owner, but you could do a lot worse than to stay put.
That leaves one streamer (Detroit) and one former streamer (Pittsburgh) – with each team’s respective performance and obviously favorable late schedule, neither should be available in savvy leagues. The Steelers, in particular, have had quite a defensive season, with a very high floor in all but their worst matchups, and a very high ceiling otherwise. They sit at sixth overall on the season after finishing 21st last year and 25th the year before! Next year will be anyone’s guess, but this week they look very good against the Ravens, who are huge home underdogs and have struggled to put up points since losing their entire offense to injury. Pittsburgh should be able to move the ball at will all game long, and that will help mask any deficiencies if they emerge.
And then there’s Detroit. Would it surprise you to learn that Detroit projects the third fewest points allowed of any team this week? There’s a lot to like against a really bad San Francisco offense who might be down their backup-turned-starting RB Shaun Draughn. And unless you somehow missed the 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons, you already know Blaine Gabbert is always a potential disaster at QB. The Lions are neither good nor safe, but the matchup is about as good as it gets, so it’s time for those who stashed the Lions to reap the rewards.
Tier 2: Tennessee, Houston, New England, Cincinnati, Oakland
I love when two opponents are both ranked highly and similarly. It makes it very unlikely that both teams play to projection! It should be noted that at the time of publishing, there is no public line on the Tennessee/Houston game, so I’ve handicapped it at Tennessee -2.5, over/under 41, but I could see that being way off based on who suits up at QB for each team. Mettenberger is all but assured for the Titans, and he’s about as generous of a quarterback as there is in the league, so some number of sacks and turnovers can be expected. The Texans just signed B.J. Daniels off of the Seahawks’ practice squad, so we’re destined to see some iteration of awful play on offense for both teams.
Once Vegas hangs a line on this game, it will become clearer which team is the better start. Until then, your guess is as good as mine, but I’ll side with what I expect to be the home favorite in Tennessee.
The Patriots picked a heck of a time to get their first D/ST score on the season, and they show up with another start-worthy matchup. It’s a little deceptive, because the Jets have been competent on offense, good on defense, and this game is played in New Jersey. However, it profiles to be a fairly low-scoring game and the Patriots are favored. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been known to throw an interception or three at times. I would rather be starting one of the tier 1/1.5 choices over New England, but they’re a fairly matchup-proof play in a pinch, and should be fine – just be aware they have their typical low floor and high ceiling.
The only thing holding the Bengals back from a top-tier position is being on the road. If we had Andy Dalton available, they might even be tier 1 anyway, but field position will be a little more of a struggle in this game without him. The Broncos QB has been rattled by pressure, the offense around him has struggled off and on, and this game should be a strong defensive performance by both teams. It could end up being a very high variance game if either team (or both!) gets served one too many short fields.
And finally, we come to Oakland. The San Diego Chargers just finished their farewell game at home, and they travel to their AFC West rivals for a road game. Last time these two battled, Oakland made off with 6.0 D/STs which, while not impressive, should give the Raiders D/ST hope for a matchup at home instead. After starting the season off with no sacks through two games, the Raiders have stepped up the pressure significantly. Four of their last six games have had four or five sacks, and they’ve notched at least one every week since Week 3. The Chargers are obviously lacking a complete set of personnel on offense, but some of the guys they do have are very quality offensive players. The Raiders, therefore, have a low floor but a pretty solid ceiling.
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If I had access to all 32 D/STs, I would start them in the following order among the top tiers:
Kansas City, Seattle, Denver, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Tennessee, New England, Houston, Cincinnati, then Oakland. I would be very tempted to dip into the next tier for Buffalo before starting Cincinnati (and maybe Houston too, depending again on Vegas).
For those of you playing in a championship game this weekend, I wish you the best of luck. It’s a great feeling to come out on top after 16+ weeks of strategery. Or, in the case of dynasty leagues, perhaps years of planning and maneuvering have led you where you are now!
For those of you who fell short, take it as a lesson for next year. Perhaps it’s nothing more than realizing your equity was slim to begin with (8.3% in a 12-team league!), or realizing how much luck/variance is involved on a weekly basis.
And finally, for anybody in a Week 17 championship game, your league sucks. Fix that for next year. I’ll see you back here next week, though, to help wade through the quagmire that is Week 17 Fantasy Football.
…but seriously, fix that for next year.
