Is there another Yu Darvish in Asia waiting for his chance to prove himself in the big leagues?
Do you want to know which Latin American teenager scouts are calling the next Miguel Cabrera? Or perhaps which once in a generation Cuban prospect is being compared to Willie Mays? I will introduce you to both of those players in this week’s series. If you only participate in standard MLB fantasy leagues, this information is not quite relevant to you, but should be interesting none-the-less.
If you are looking for prospects that will make an impact this season, look no further than the four articles I published last week. I broke down 70 rookies that could help your fantasy baseball this season. Some were can’t miss prospects that are finally getting their chance, and a few were overlooked non-prospect types that snuck through the minor leagues despite impressive performances at every step along the way. If you want to see those lists, check out AL hitters, NL Hitters, Pitchers Part One, Pitchers Part Two.
You may have seen some of these signing bonuses for international free agents: Teenager, Yoan Moncada, cost the Red Sox 63 million dollars last off-season. Aroldis Chapman went for 32 million and Jorge Soler was a 30 million dollar signing. Does that mean these international super-prospects are three to six times greater than Stephen Strasburg, Mark Prior, Bryce Harper, Mark Teixeira and David Price, who received the five largest contracts (8 to 15 million) in MLB’s draft history? No, it means MLB draft bonuses are hard-capped while international prospect signings are only soft-capped, so teams must be more careful with drafted player’s signing bonus money.
The best way to value international prospects is to translate where they would be drafted if they were eligible in the upcoming MLB draft. Typically 8 to 17 drafted players immediately join the top 100 prospects after signing, so international prospects I list this week should be considered top-20 prospects if they would go first overall, top 50 if in the top five picks, top-100 if in the top fifteen and borderline top-100 if in the first round.
First Overall Pick
Shohei Otani – Starting Pitcher – The 21-year-old righty has better stuff than Yu Darvish thanks to a 101 MPH fastball and a Corey Kluber level slider. If that isn’t enough, he struck out 196 while only allowing 100 hits in 160 IP. That’s not even all: if he signs with an NL team, he can hit too. Otani carried an .842 OPS with a .231 ISO in 234 plate appearances. He is the total package and is expected to be posted within a few years, making him the most dynamic young international pitcher to ever hit the market.
Top Five Picks
Shintaro Fujinami – Starting Pitcher – The 6’5” righty may just be 21 years-old, but he led Japan with 221 strikeouts last season. His profile is much like Otani’s, but just a notch below. Many expect his career to be similar to Yu Darvish, whether he plays most of his days in Japan or the big leagues. He will likely not be posted until he is 27 years-old. If he is posted then, you can expect a seven-figure deal.
Tomohiro Anraku – Starting Pitcher – Reminiscent of old-timer, Jim Bouton, Anraku throws so hard that his hat occasionally falls off. Unlike Bouton, Anraku throws 100 MPH and is still just 19 years-old. The recent first overall pick has only tasted the Japan professional league but is their clear top prospect. He once threw 772 pitches in nine days, so if his arm doesn’t fall off before he has a chance to cross the ocean someday, Anraku should have teams crawling all over him.
Top Fifteen Picks
Yuki Yanagita – Outfielder – His production is a notch below that of Hideki Matsui before he joined the Yankees. They are entirely different players, though. Matsui was a 50 home run type of guy, while Yanagita is a strong defending 30 HR, 30 SB type of guy. If he ever comes to the majors he should be a similar player to Shawn Green. His team, the Softbank Hawks, have still never posted a player so I’m not holding my breath.
Tetsuto Yamada – Shortstop/Second Basemen – This Japanese middle infielder has broken out offensively in a major way the past two seasons. Still just 22, he is well on his way to becoming a star. Last season he hit 38 homers, 39 doubles, and stole 34 stolen bases while hitting .329. He led his league in OPS by over 100 points and had great speed on the bases. If he transfers to America in a few years he would have to shift to second base but has the ceiling to become much like Ian Kinsler, but with far more speed.
Takahiro Norimoto – Starting Pitcher – This Japanese 25-year-old pitcher can’t be posted until 2021 when he is 30 years-old. His demand will likely be as high as Kenta Maeda’s at that point. His numbers are impressive with 215 Ks in 194 IP and a 2.91 ERA. Norimoto once struck out six MLB all-stars in one exhibition outing and is capable of doing that every day if he ever gets posted.
Other First Round Values
Every season you will see between five and ten first-round compensation draft picks. These picks are given to a team that lost a free-agent they gave a qualifying offer to. If a team signs a player for 12 million per year and surrenders their first-round draft pick, then you can be assured they believe the player to be worth a current first-round pick, plus some. Using that logic, we can assume an MLB team would surrender a high pick to acquire these players if it was required in free-agency.
Yoshitomo Tsutsugo – Utility Defender – He is a budding young star in Japan that plays third base, outfield, and first base. Yoshitomo has a lot of pop in his bat and a disciplined batting eye. If he continues to improve towards his potential and were to make the transition he could have a similar impact on a major league team as Michael Cuddyer.
Eric Thames – First Basemen – The name doesn’t seem to fit in this article, and it may be familiar to you. That is because he used to play for the Blue Jays and Mariners before being sent back to Triple-A with the Orioles and deciding he would rather play internationally. In 2014 he finally received a full-time gig, but this time in Korea. Since then he has popped 84 homers, 72 doubles and drove in 261 runs in just 915 at-bats. In 2014, he batted .343 then increased it to .381 last season while stealing 40 bases and winning the MVP. If he comes back you might see the 29-year-old becoming a Kole Calhoun type offensive performer.
Ha-Seong Kim – Shortstop – Korea’s top prospect is a 19-year-old shortstop. The youngster is already considered a star in the league thanks to 35 doubles, 19 homers and 22 stolen bases. Perhaps most impressive, is his unusually good eye at the plate for such a young hitter. Kim will have to improve his defense if he wants to stick at shortstop when/if he makes it to the big leagues, but if he continues to progress at his current rate he will be due for a significant payday.
Chihiro Kaneko – Starting Pitcher – One of Japan’s standout pitchers is now 32 years old and unlikely to ever pitch in the big leagues. In 2014, he compiled a 1.98 ERA with 199 Ks in 191 IP. Many speculated he would be posted and sign a big deal, but his team opted to re-sign him for four years.
Yuji Nishino – Relief Pitcher – We just saw one Japanese closer, ‘The Final Boss’, sign with the Cardinals yesterday. Next season may be the year that Nishino comes over to be a quality closer or shut-down setup man. The 24-year-old compiled 11.8 K/9 last season with a 1.83 ERA and 34 saves. His forkball might be the best in the world.
Nobuhiro Matsuda – Third Basemen – He is currently a free-agent who is considering signing with one of multiple major league teams. The top contender for his services are the San Diego Padres. Matsuda is 32 years old, but coming off the best season of his career, where he batted .287 with 35 homers and 94 RBI. The righty also has plus graded plate discipline and is more than capable of holding his own in America.
Supplemental Picks and Second Rounders
These players are likely to be published on my MLB worldwide top 300 prospect list that will be coming out soon but are not yet considered in the conversation as top-100 type talent.
Yusei Kikuchi – Starting Pitcher – When a young lefty touches 97 MPH you pay close attention. Unfortunately for Kikuchi, he has had shoulder issues and hasn’t yet reached his potential. Still just 24 years-old, his numbers are improving with a 2.84 ERA and 8.3 K/9 last season. He considered being the first player to go from a Japan high school to the big leagues, so there is no question he wants to be over here someday.
Sho Nakata – Outfielder – I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a more clear comparison than Nakata to Rick Ankiel. He was once a rocket-armed pitching prospect who transitioned to an all or nothing power hitter. Nakata hit 30 homers and 26 doubles last season but only hit .263. Seeing that he is only 26 years-old and trained to be a pitcher much of his life, I think it is fair to say there might be more potential to be found.
Takayuki Kishi – Starting Pitcher – The most likely player to be posted next year is a 31-year-old right-handed pitcher that probably best compares to Brandon McCarthy. He hasn’t expressed interest in making the jump, but if he does you fill find a soft-tossing control pitcher with multiple reliable breaking balls.
Shota Takeda – Starting Pitcher – The 23-year-old was a strong prospect with good stuff, but had control issues. This year he made the move to the rotation and seems to have fixed his command. He appears to be a similar pitcher to Maeda, but with a slightly higher upside. If he continues to progress he could move up the list 10 to 15 spots.
Yoshio Itoi – Outfielder – This left-handed center fielder has unbelievable athleticism. In his prime, he was a 40 double, 30 stolen base, gold glove winner with a rocket arm, but now that he is 34 years-old, Itoi would just be a fringe starter in the big leagues. A fair comparison might be Drew Stubbs.
Yuki Nishi – Starting Pitcher – Here is another young Japanese pitcher that has had success early on in his career. His H/9 rate, K/9 rate and ERA have all been steadily improving since he joined the rotation as a 20-year-old. Now he looks to take the next step into the elite group of Japanese pitchers. If he does, he could end up a solid No. 3 pitcher in America.
Ja-wook Koo – First Basemen/Outfielder – The 22-year-old left-handed tool-shed made his mark on the KBO last season as a rookie. Koo knocked 48 extra base-hits in 410 at-bats and stole 17 bases while hitting .349. If the young ballplayer can find a position and improve his defense, he could soar up the list and become a hot commodity one day as an MLB free-agent.
Hayato Sakamoto – Shortstop – Once a glowing prospect, he was called the Jeter of Japan. Sakamoto has never reached anywhere close to his suggested potential, but he is only 27 so there is still time. If he makes it to America he would be more along the lines of Alcides Escobar than Jeter.
Shogo Akiyama – Outfielder – He is five feet tall exactly. That isn’t a typo. Somehow, the gamer knocked 60 extra base-hits and 216 total hits for a .359 batting average. He was never considered an MLB prospect, but if he continues to perform like this, the 27-year-old will likely end up on the radar.
