Matt Jones’ inconsistent play and fumbling issues may prove to be his downfall
Trevor Bucher discusses his dynasty league buys and sells following the NFL Draft.
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When it comes to evaluating players to buy and sell in dynasty, I like to take into account current player value and their potential range of outcomes. If the value, or cost of acquiring a player, is outweighed by their likely production then I will move to acquire that player in the hopes of improving my team. These players are my “buys.” Sometimes a player falls on the other end of the spectrum, where I anticipate that their production will not match or exceed their value.
They are my “sells.” One of the best ways to gauge current player value is to check dynasty ADP data, but that is often behind a paywall. Another solid option is to scour #dynastytrades on Twitter (e.g. search for “#dynastytrades ARob” if you want to see what Allen Robinson is going for currently). With those tools in your belt, you’ll be ready to decide who your dynasty buys and sells are. Allow me to jump into mine.
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Dynasty Buys
Devonta Freeman (RB – ATL)
Yes, Freeman was the PPR RB1 in 2015. How can he be a buy? The reason is that he is currently being valued lower than the likes of other top backs like Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson and even Lamar Miller.
He is the same age as Bell and Johnson yet has fewer injury concerns than Bell and more experience and production than Johnson. The biggest concerns with Freeman are that he has Tevin Coleman behind him on the depth chart and that he seemed to wear down as the season went along.
Given Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan’s apparent preference for Freeman, I don’t sweat the Coleman impact much. As for him wearing down, I think he will be better prepared for his second go around as the lead back.
Michael Crabtree (WR – OAK)
Crabtree is being overshadowed by his counterpart in Amari Cooper. While Cooper is younger and a phenom in his own right, Crabtree turned in a fantastic season in 2015 and looks primed to put up another big year in 2016. He is on the older end of the WR spectrum at 28, but he should have several solid years left in him.
His current value has him in the same range as unproven youngsters like Will Fuller and Nelson Agholor. At that price, I’m taking Crabtree every time and enjoying the security of having an asset that I know can produce in his current situation.
Isaiah Crowell (RB – CLE)
I know, the Browns are a mess. Hear me out. The Browns have hired Hue Jackson as their new coach, and they didn’t bring in any significant competition for Crowell and Duke Johnson in 2016. Jackson has managed to get stellar RB production out of Darren McFadden, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill on his last few coaching stops.
Factor in that Hue has been talking up his backfield duo and that somehow, Paul Perkins is valued higher than Crowell, and I think Crowell is sitting on a perfect storm of opportunity, situation, and being undervalued. Much like Crabtree, I would snap him up for my team if I’m looking to compete on a budget in 2016.
Doug Baldwin (WR – SEA)
Baldwin exploded in 2015, and despite this coming late in his career compared to most top receivers he has some favorable comps based on production at his age. The Seahawks’ offense looks to be shifting to a more spread out passing attack, and he fits into this scheme perfectly. The chemistry is obviously there between Russell Wilson and Baldwin if you go back and review game film from 2015.
Baldwin doesn’t fit the typical profile for a red zone monster, but Wilson displayed extreme confidence in him near the goal line. At his current WR4-5 price, I expect Baldwin to substantially out-perform your investment cost for several years.
Ryan Mathews (RB – PHI)
Mathews is perhaps the biggest gamble on my buys list, but the upside is worth the risk. He is the heir apparent to the majority of the work in the Philadelphia backfield after DeMarco Murray left for the Titans. His main competition at the moment is the aging third-down back Darren Sproles.
The risk involved largely comes in the form of Mathews injury history. He seemingly gets injured every year, but he is a very effective running back with a fine draft pedigree. If he can stay healthy, he could help lead a lot of teams to a championship this year.
One caveat on buying Mathews is that I would recommend also picking up Wendell Smallwood as he currently looks to be the man if Mathews goes down. Smallwood is also pretty cheap, so handcuffing here won’t be hateful. Mathews is going off the board as the 37th RB taken in May, so the risk/reward is almost entirely in your favor.
Dynasty Sells
Matt Jones (RB – WAS)
The Redskins let Alfred Morris walk; they still have third down back Chris Thompson and the only legitimate competition they brought in at running back is seventh rounder, Keith Marshall. So why am I advocating that you sell Jones? There are several reasons.
First is efficiency. Jones only exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in three out of 13 appearances in 2015. Also, he fumbled five times on only 163 touches. Jones is the guy in Washington right now at running back.
With inefficient play and fumbles, that will not continue to be the case. Whether Marshall plays well enough to turn into the starter remains to be seen, but I am confident Jones will not be the starter in 2017, and your best bet is to sell now while you can get something out of him.
Brandon Marshall (WR – NYJ)
Father Time is undefeated, and for wide receivers who don’t fall off a cliff at age 30, the odds of them falling off increases substantially with each additional year they play. The Jets have an unsettled quarterback situation right now as Ryan Fitzpatrick is not under contract and the rest of the quarterbacks are underwhelming and/or unproven.
While I like Marshall as a WR2 for 2016, I doubt you will be able to sell him for anywhere near what his price tag is right now at any point in the future. He is worth holding onto if you are competing for a championship this year, but otherwise, I would be looking to cash out while there is still something to be gained in return.
Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA)
Rawls doesn’t appear on my list of sells so much as an indictment of his on-field play last year as much as circumstances. Everyone had him penciled in as Marshawn Lynch’s replacement and then the Seahawks went ahead and invested in multiple quality running backs in the 2016 draft, taking C.J. Prosise at 90th overall and Alex Collins at 171 overall. Despite his good two-down work on the field last year, Rawls was undrafted and carries virtually no investment on the part of his team.
This lack of investment in him coupled with new competition from peers who did have investments made in them paints a less than ideal picture. It’s possible Rawls overcomes this and maintains his role. It’s equally possible that he does not. That isn’t a risk that I want to take with a player at his current value, so I would sell him for any more stable asset in his price range.
Jordan Reed (TE – WAS)
Reed is another player that makes it to my sell list due to reasons that fall entirely outside of his on-field play. All of Reed’s risk lies in his injury history, and specifically his concussion history. You may have heard that concussions are a bad thing by now, and Reed has had several bad ones in his short NFL career. It is possible that all it could take is one more big hit, and he becomes a worthless dynasty asset and a very sad cautionary tale.
The Redskins invested heavily in him with an extension but have hedged their bets well. Niles Paul performed well when given opportunities, and Derek Carrier and Logan Paulsen both appear capable. As if this depth wasn’t enough, they also signed Vernon Davis.
I love Reed’s production, and I am rooting for him to stay healthy. As far as my dynasty squad is concerned, I prefer the Redskins’ route and will be either selling him or hedging my bets.
