2014’s top QB, Andrew Luck, was the fifth signal caller off the board
After the success of the live MLB Mock Draft before the 2016 baseball season, FantasyPros is back with a live NFL draft as we move closer to the 2016 NFL season. We here at FantasyPros have selected 12 correspondents, again including myself, to conduct this live draft of a PPR league with a QB, two RB, three WR, TE, K, DEF, three FLEX players, and six bench players. Keep track of live updates of the Mock Draft @thezman2010 on Twitter. You can check out other Rounds here (Round 1 – Rounds 2 & 3).
A major theme in the fourth and fifth round was owners filling their starting roles at RB and WR. There are some that have picked TE or WR through the first third of the draft, but most have prioritized the skill positions in their roster development. Those that have opted away from filling their starting spots at RB and WR are looking to add value at QB or TE.
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4.01 Dan Marcus: Donte Moncrief (IND-WR)
Moncrief is the biggest of the Colts’ receivers and with a (hopefully) healthy Andrew Luck, Moncrief should be in line for plenty of red zone targets. Speaking of potential Colts’ targets, both Andre Johnson and Colby Fleener have moved on, which should also open up more targets for Moncrief in all parts of the field. Dan likes the pairing of Edelman and Moncrief at this turn because it gives both stability in Edelman and upside in Moncrief.
QB- RB-Johnson RB-Bell WR-Edelman WR-Moncrief WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.02 Matt Barbato: Cam Newton (CAR-QB)
Matt has no problem taking Cam in the fourth round. Will he be as incredible as last season? Probably not, but he’ll still be a top-five quarterback. There are no running backs or receivers he really loves, so he’ll worry about the RB spot later. Procrastination wins!
QB-Newton RB-Peterson RB- WR-Decker WR-Robinson WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.03 Adam Sutton: Jordan Reed (WAS-TE)
With a current ADP right at the end of round three, Adam is not getting a ton of value here, especially given Reed’s injury history. With that in mind, he is willing to take on the risk with the intent of targeting Reed’s upside. He’s extremely talented and showed last year that when healthy, he can produce big numbers. He finished second in PPR scoring, while actually averaging more fantasy points per game than Rob Gronkowski in PPR formats. The sky is the limit for Reed and, while Adam is taking a calculated risk here, he loves the upside if Reed stays healthy.
QB- RB-Miller RB-Martin WR-Marshall WR- WR- TE-Reed K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE–
4.04 Anthony Cervino: Kelvin Benjamin (CAR-WR)
Benjamin is a solid pick in the fourth round. He could easily become the focal point of Carolina’s passing game, a position formerly held by Greg Olsen. Cam Newton is developing into a solid passer and showed a rapport with Benjamin during his rookie year in 2014. Benjamin is potentially a top-10 scoring wideout in 2016.
QB-Rodgers RB- RB-Charles WR-Bryant WR-K. Benjamin WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.05 Stan Son: Larry Fitzgerald (ARI-WR)
The Cardinals should boast one of the elite offenses again. Fitz had a renaissance season in 2015 (109 catches on 145 targets for 1215 yards and 9 touchdowns) due to primarily operating out of the slot. He’s Carson Palmer‘s BFF and should lead the team in targets again.
QB- RB-Elliott RB- WR-Evans WR-Tate WR-Fitzgerald TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.06 Nick Tapas: Doug Baldwin (SEA-WR)
With an ADP of 45 and PPR FantasyPros ECR of 47, this is about the same spot Baldwin is going in most drafts. His PPR worth, however, is greatly undervalued. Baldwin’s targets have gone up over each of the past four seasons (50 targets in 2012, 72 in 2013, 98 in 2014 and 99 in 2015). With Russell Wilson completing over 75% of his passes to WR targets in 2015, we may see more of the same reception and yardage production we saw out of Baldwin in the second half of the season last year, which makes him a very viable WR2 in PPR formats. Additionally, even if Baldwin’s overall TD numbers are cut in half from 14 to seven in 2016, it is not out of the question to anticipate a 900-1,000 yard season with seven or more TDs. He’s a great value as a mid-to-late fourth round pick in a 12-team PPR format. Nick is pleased to have him as a WR2 after having not drafted his first WR until round three.
QB- RB-Freeman RB- WR-Landry WR-Baldwin WR- TE-Gronkowski K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.07 Dan Harris: Eddie Lacy (GB-RB)
Can you tell Dan is all-in on the Packers bouncing back? He was hoping that Kelvin Benjamin or Larry Fitzgerald would fall to him here, but he is still happy to add Lacy. After back-to-back 1,400-yard and 11-plus touchdown seasons, Lacy struggled last year to the tune of 946 total yards and just five scores. There were two culprits, neither of which should be problematic this year: 1) his weight and 2) the Packers’ poor passing game. With Lacy in a contract year and the Packers looking to once again be one of the best offenses in the league, Lacy is a great pick in the middle of the fourth round.
QB- RB-Gurley RB-Lacy WR-Jeffery WR-Cobb WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.08 Chris Zolli: Carlos Hyde (SF-RB)
There were three guys at this pick that were considered (Eddie Lacy, Carlos Hyde, and C.J. Anderson) and each had their issues, with Lacy having weight concerns, Hyde coming off an injury, and Anderson without too much help at QB. That being said, and Dan making my pick a bit easier, I believe in Hyde’s upside rather than Anderson’s. The main reason that Hyde is a better pick is that he will be the key part of the offense, with uncertainty at QB, and he is a part of a Chip Kelly offense. A fast-paced and progressive offensive coach is a good thing for Hyde’s 2016 potential, as Kelly will look for 340-360 touches from his top RB. Potential is greater than real concrete statistics with Hyde, but he is a breakout candidate for 2016.
QB- RB-McCoy RB-Hyde WR-Hopkins WR-Nelson WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.09 Matt Terelle: Dion Lewis (NE-RB)
Lewis has yet to hit the field in training camp and there have been conflicting reports about his status for the start of the season. Taking Lewis requires a leap of faith because we know the Patriots won’t be forthcoming about his injury status. If he’s right, Lewis has a chance to be an RB1 which would make his late fourth-round price tag a great value.
QB- RB-Lewis RB- WR-Green WR-Allen WR-Watkins TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.10 Derek Norton: Thomas Rawls (SEA-RB)
The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have been more willing to feature one running back than most other teams. This was true even without Marshawn Lynch. Before Seattle traded for him in 2010, Justin Forsett was getting used much more frequently than Julius Jones and Leon Washington. When Lynch went down last year, Rawls inherited his workload. Then Christine Michael did the same for Rawls. So it’s safe to say that the top running back in Seattle, when healthy, should see more carries than most other starters. Rawls was doing more with his carries than Lynch, too. He has fallen this far because of the ankle injury and because Seattle drafted three running backs. Derek is not a doctor, but the doctors whose work he’s read think Rawls will be good to go in Week 1. Derek is not worried about the rookies, either, since two of them are mainly pass-catching, third-down backs. Rawls should be the guy in Seattle and, if he can offer 75% of Lynch’s healthy production, he’ll be well worth this pick.
QB- RB-Ingram RB-Rawls WR-Jones WR-Cooper WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.11 Neil Dutton: Michael Floyd (ARI-WR)
Floyd finished the 2015 season with a mere 849 yards receiving, but as he battled his way back from a preseason injury, he became a much bigger part of the Cardinals’ offense. In his final eight games of the season, he saw at least eight targets in six of them, topping 100 yards in five of them. If David Johnson becomes the stud of the backfield as many expect, Floyd has a great chance to become THE guy in the Cards’ offense. He’s more than welcome on Neil’s roster.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Beckham Jr. WR- Thomas WR-Maclin TE- K- DEF- FLEX-Floyd FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
4.12 Mike Vincent: Jordan Matthews (PHI-WR)
His quarterback situation is a bit murky, which is why he fell to the late fourth round, but as Mike’s fourth wide receiver, Mike has faith in Matthews producing like the No. 1 reciever in that offense, much like Jeremy Maclin had under new head coach Doug Pederson in Kansas City when Pederson was the offensive coordinator. Mike has built his team around solid target heavy WR1s, and his four-WR combo of AB, Cooks, TY, and now Matthews all have different bye weeks, so he is maximizing the WR/WR/Flex situation all season and has enough depth for an injury or matchup problem. Matthews has done nothing but produce in his first two seasons, regardless of who the QB has been – seeing at least 100 targets both years and catching eight touchdowns in each of his first two campaigns.
QB- RB- RB- WR-Brown WR-Cooks WR- Hilton TE- K- DEF- FLEX-Matthews FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.01 Mike Vincent: C.J. Anderson (DEN-RB)
The top of the fifth round is great value in what will be a bounce back campaign for Anderson. He came on late last season and received the bulk of the work after it became apparent Ronnie Hillman was never going to be a thing. While they drafted Devontae Booker, Anderson will have the first shot at being the starting RB in what should be a run-first offense given their defense and quarterback situation. Anderson may be a dart throw if he doesn’t produce off the bat, but Mike is willing to risk a fifth pick on him considering the upside potential.
QB- RB-Anderson RB- WR-Brown WR-Cooks WR-Hilton TE- K- DEF- FLEX-Matthews FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.02 Neil Dutton: Drew Brees (NO-QB)
This is a bit high for Neil’s taste, but he is not going to pass up the chance to take one of the greatest fantasy quarterbacks of all time. Brees has passed for at least 4,418 yards every year since 2005 and has at least 32 passing touchdowns in his last eight seasons. In current ADP terms, he is going after Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben has at least 32 passing scores just twice in his career; more reason to go with Drew.
QB-Brees RB- RB- WR-Beckham Jr. WR-Thomas WR-Maclin TE- K- DEF- FLEX-Floyd FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.03 Derek Norton: Russell Wilson (SEA-QB)
The fifth round is about the time Derek is willing to consider a quarterback if one of the top-tier options are still available. Wilson has been a top fantasy quarterback for two years now and there is no reason to think that will stop. He has improved each year and has never missed a game. It is easy to see him topping 4,000 passing yards again, along with his usual 500 rushing yards. Derek will take his safe weekly floor and high weekly ceiling in the fifth round over streaming late-round guys.
QB- Wilson RB-Ingram RB-Rawls WR-Jones WR-Cooper WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.04 Matt Terelle: Greg Olsen (CAR-TE)
While Greg Olsen doesn’t have the extreme upside that Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed have, he also carries less injury risk. Olsen has been remarkably consistent since joining the Panthers, catching 69 or more passes for 800 or more yards in four straight seasons. There’s no reason to believe that streak won’t continue in 2016 as he’s one of Cam Newton‘s most trusted targets.
QB- RB-Lewis RB- WR-Green WR-Allen WR-Watkins TE-Olsen K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.05 Chris Zolli: DeVante Parker (MIA-WR)
DeVante Parker‘s pick is more for a perfect situation that could lead to a breakout season. Jarvis Landry will get more of the defensive coverage, head coach Adam Gase is pass-happy, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill looks more and more like he is going to turn into an upper-echelon QB. All of those things could make Parker look more like a good WR2 than a WR3. Remember that Gase was at the helm for the Broncos’ record-breaking 2013 season, where he spread the ball between Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas, and that Parker had at least 85 yards receiving in each of his last three games. He has been dealing with a hamstring issue in camp, but Parker had a yards per catch of at least 20 in four of his last five games and is a breakout candidate.
QB- RB-McCoy RB-Hyde WR-Hopkins WR-Nelson WR-Parker TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.06 Dan Harris: Emmanuel Sanders (DEN-WR)
Dan flirted with the idea of drafting Andrew Luck here, but he couldn’t pass up Sanders at this spot. He honestly does not understand Sanders’ ADP this year, as he was nabbed as the 30th wide receiver off the board, which is completely consistent with his ADP. In 2014, he finished as the fifth-ranked receiver in PPR leagues. Last year, he finished as the 18th ranked receiver in PPR leagues. Sure, Mark Sanchez and Paxton Lynch are a far cry from vintage Peyton Manning, but for fantasy purposes, they are an upgrade over 2015 Peyton Manning. So, it is puzzling to understand what happened to make Sanders fall this far in fantasy drafts, but Dan is happy to reap the rewards.
QB- RB-Gurley RB-Lacy WR-Jeffrey WR-Cobb WR-Sanders TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.07 Nick Tapas: Matt Forte (NYJ-RB)
I was looking at either a WR/RB for my fifth pick and couldn’t pass up the value here since Matt Forte’s ADP is 35thtranslating to a late third/early fourth round pick in 12-team PPR leagues. To get him in the middle of the fifth round was a steal, but not unexpected given how this draft is going so far in terms of WRs taken. Durability issues are the main concern with Forte coming into 2016, exemplified by his missing three games last season. With Ryan Fitzpatrick back as the Jets’ QB, Forte should get plenty of opportunities both as a rusher and pass receiver. With Chris Ivory headed to Jacksonville, Forte is the clear No. 1 RB in New York and should slot right into Ivory’s former roll, giving him very solid value in PPR leagues. Bilal Powell should eat into Forte’s playing time, but even with Powell, Forte still projects as a low-end RB1/high RB2 in PPR leagues and is a great get to compliment Devonta Freeman as my RB2.
QB- RB-Freeman RB-Forte WR-Landry WR-Baldwin WR- TE-Gronkowski K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.08 Stan Son: Latavius Murray (OAK-RB)
Size/speed freak that will be the lead dog for a team that wants to play great defense, run the ball, and possesses one of the top offensive lines in the game. That’s not to discount the passing game, though, because Derek Carr is a bright young star at quarterback with explosive weapons on the outside in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Bottom line is that Murray will get the volume, scoring opportunities, and should rarely face a stacked box. While Murray wasn’t amazing last year, he did show flashes in his first year carrying the load. He is also in a contract year. Rookie DeAndre Washington has been getting hyped up and will get some play, but Murray is the guy unless he gets hurt or completely craps the bed.
QB- RB-Elliott RB-Murray WR-Evans WR-Tate WR-Fitzgerald TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.09 Anthony Cervino: Matt Jones (WAS-RB)
Jones is a bit of a reach here, but Anthony likes him over Jeremy Hill, who is still on the board. Hill will spilt time with Gio Bernard and Jones’ only threat to lose touches is role-player Chris Thompson, which played a tremendous part in this decision. The Redskins are heavily relying on the passing game and Jones could carry the offense if Kirk Cousins should struggle in 2016. The knock and risk on Jones is ball security. If he corrects the issue, he could feast, but if he continues to put the ball on the ground, then Anthony and fellow owners will famine in the wake of this selection.
QB-Rodgers RB-Charles RB-Jones WR-Bryant WR-Benjamin WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.10 Adam Sutton: Andrew Luck (IND-QB)
To say that Luck’s injury-riddled campaign in 2015 was a disappointment is an understatement. Though he likely won’t admit it, it is highly doubtful that he was ever fully healthy at any point last season. Getting Luck towards the end of the fifth round is probably 10-12 spots later than he should have come off of the board, which creates some nice value for Adam. Toss in the fact that Luck finished atop the fantasy world in terms of production among all quarterbacks in 2014 and this could end up as a steal if he remains healthy.
QB-Luck RB-Miller RB-Martin WR-Marshall WR- WR- TE-Reed K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.11 Matt Barbato: Danny Woodhead (SD-RB)
Woodhead is a PPR monster and is a much more valuable player in this format. Melvin Gordon will likely get the most carries, but San Diego will still throw the ball a ton and Woodhead will surely be involved. Matt is not sure if he will catch six touchdown passes this season, but will gladly take another 70 or 80 receptions.
QB-Newton RB-Peterson RB-Woodhead WR-Robinson WR-Decker WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX- FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
5.12 Dan Marcus: Jeremy Hill (CIN-RB)
Wide receiver love is very high this draft which leads Dan to some values at running back that cannot be passed up. It’s no secret that Hill is not much of a receiver out of the backfield, but he has a nose for the end zone, as he has 20 touchdowns in his first two seasons in the NFL. Hopefully, Hill will be Dan’s FLEX for most of the season or, even just a depth piece if his roster remains healthy, so he is willing to take a chance on his boom/bust profile.
QB- RB-Johnson RB-Bell WR-Edelman WR-Moncrief WR- TE- K- DEF- FLEX-Hill FLEX- FLEX- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE- BE-
Chris Zolli is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Chris, check out his archive and follow him@thezman2010.
