Brock Osweiler’s futility is impacting the value of those around him
We are now halfway through the fantasy regular season. Playoff pictures in seasonal fantasy leagues are beginning to take shape, while, in the NFL, we have reached the first of two dreaded six-team bye weeks. In Week 8, fantasy owners with fantasy starters on the Giants, Rams, Ravens, Dolphins, Steelers and 49ers will need to look to their bench or the waiver wire for help.
Below are some interesting statistical tidbits which can better help you target unowned players possibly available on the waiver wire or maximize output in your seasonal lineups. These tidbits can also hopefully help you optimize DFS lineups.
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Following the Texans’ Week 7 loss, Brock Osweiler became the first QB in NFL history to have three games in a single season with 200 yards or fewer on 40 attempts in each game.
As has been discussed throughout the media multiple times before and during the season, one of the most insane contracts given out in the NFL off-season was the four-year/$72 million dollar deal Brock Osweiler received from the Texans. Osweiler has done very little to silence his critics thus far in 2016. His most recent game, the Monday night disaster at Denver, was by far his worst of the season where he threw for just 131 yards on 22 completions despite 41 attempts. In fact, his 3.2 yards per pass attempt was the third worst in a game in the Super Bowl era where the QB attempted 40+ passes. Now reaching historic proportions of futility, along with a TD:INT ratio of 8:8, Osweiler is no longer a fantasy relevant QB unless owners are playing in a two-QB, 12+ team league. Even in that situation, he’s nothing more than a bye week streamer. More importantly, the impact of Osweiler’s ineffectiveness on the Texans’ WR corps is taking its toll. Almost implausibly, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller and Jalen Strong failed to reach 70 yards receiving combined in Week 7. Furthermore, Hopkins, who was one of the top-5 WRs taken in all fantasy formats during drafts, has failed to reach 100 yards receiving more than one time this season and has had only two games where he eclipsed 70-yards receiving in 2016. Furthermore, Fuller’s effectiveness in the first two weeks of the season is ancient history. For both Nuk and Fuller owners, the time to sell high on these WRs has passed. The best option at this point is to hold both and hope for some type of resurgence raising their trade value in the weeks following the Texans’ bye when Houston faces Jacksonville, Oakland and San Diego. For now, with Osweiler’s struggles continuing, Hopkins is more of a mid-tier WR2, with Fuller a lower-end WR3/Flex option in deeper formats. Alternatively, owners looking to stream D/STs would be wise to target the Lions, who face the Texans in Houston, in Week 8.
Jay Ajayi is now only the fourth NFL running back in history to record back-to-back 200-yard rush games.
The other three RBs are some unknown players named O.J. Simpson, Earl Campbell and Ricky Williams… Ajayi is in very good company and, given the historic accomplishment of his past two games, he could be 2016’s legitimate breakout RB. Ajayi has 418 yards over the last two games and, incredibly, 277 of those yards have come after contact. By comparison, Todd Gurley (who was drafted, on average, as the second RB off the board in all formats in fantasy drafts) has 403 rush yards for the entire season. Ajayi’s totals over the past two games are nothing short of astounding particularly considering he didn’t even travel with the Dolphins to Seattle in Week 1. With Arian Foster now retiring, it’s the Jay Ajayi show in Miami as he is the bona fide No. 1 featured RB on that offense. As Ryan Tannehill continues to struggle, expect Ajayi to continue to get at least 20 attempts per game for the foreseeable future. After the Dolphins’ Week 8 bye, Ajayi will get a great matchup against the Jets at home where he should be locked in as a fantasy RB1.
A.J. Green is now the sixth player in the last 30 seasons with three 150-yard receiving games within the first seven weeks of a season.
As an A.J. Green owner in multiple leagues, I’m well aware that he will have weeks where his totals are somewhat pedestrian (for example, Week 2 at Pittsburgh where he managed only 38 yards on two receptions; and Week 5 at Dallas where he managed only 50 yards on four receptions). That said, given this statistical tidbit, he remains a top-tier WR1 option (stating the obvious) who, more often than not, will put up monster numbers in any given week. Given the fact that he is only the third player in the last 30 seasons to put up these numbers to open the season, it is no surprise that he can single-handedly win an owner a week, a trait which is not easy to come by. Those owners targeting Green in a mid-to-late season trade may want to try to buy-low on Green from an impulsive owner if and when he has an off game, similar to his production in Weeks 2 and 5. With Tyler Eifert returning to the Bengals, an impulsive, panic-stricken owner may be more willing to part with Green for less than he is worth should he have a relatively quiet week against the Redskins in Week 8 or Giants in Week 10.
Todd Gurley has now carried the ball 134 times this season without a single run over 16 yards.
Whether this is the fault of the Rams’ OL and its inability to open holes, the decision of opposing defenses to stack the line against the Rams daring Case Keenum to throw the ball, or Todd Gurley having a down season, the frustration for Gurley’s fantasy owners continues to mount. With almost half of the season now behind us, Gurley has posted numbers more in line with an RB2, than a top-two RB drafted in fantasy leagues. Gurley has yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season, with his highest rushing total coming in Week 3 against Tampa Bay (85 yards). Owners really have no choice but to sit tight and hope Gurley can come out of the bye regenerated and have a big game against the Panthers in Week 9. Any decision to trade Gurley now would be an ill-advised sell-low move by his owners. On The flip side, were an owner offered Gurley for an RB2 price tag, that owner should jump at the opportunity to get him given the potential ceiling that Gurley has (plus he faces the 49ers rush defense in Week 16 – the fantasy championship in most seasonal leagues).
The Giants have run for 117 yards in their last three games combined.
Ouch. Of course, one would think that this horrific run game would, then, translate to huge passing weeks for Eli Manning and huge fantasy weeks for the Giants’ WRs. Unfortunately, other than the second half passing/receiving outburst we saw by the Giants in Week 6 against the Ravens, Manning was held to just 199 yards passing in Week 5 and an even worse 196 yards in Week 7. Top-tier WR Odell Beckham only registered 56 yards receiving in Week 5 and 49 yards receiving in Week 7. Bottom line, the Giants’ offense is an unmitigated mess right now. As far as the completely ineffective Giants’ run game goes, fantasy owners should stay far away from Rashad Jennings, Bobby Rainey, Orleans Darkwa and Paul Perkins for the foreseeable future while the offensive woes continue. In fact, only Jennings should be rostered and, even in his case, he should remain on benches in all but the deepest of leagues. The Giants will come out of their Week 8 bye to face the Eagles in Week 9. This makes the Eagles D/ST an extremely attractive fantasy option in Week 9, and reinforces the need for Giants’ RB owners to reconsider who should be a priority waiver casualty when making claims for Weeks 8 and 9.
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Nicky Tapas is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Nicky, check out his archive and follow him @nickytapas71.
