Drew Brees will be worth every dollar of his high salary (and then some) against Detroit this Sunday
Week 13 is here, and the last two teams have their bye this week. I will focus on the main slate for Sunday in this article. Week 12 was by far the worst of the season for this article, as the lineup produced just 97.56 DKP. Last week’s performance lowered the season average of this lineup article series to 97.56 DKP through Week 12.
Carson Palmer was my pick at quarterback, and while he didn’t have a phenomenal game, 18.56 DKP isn’t tough to complain about given his price last week. David Johnson put up another huge game, scoring 33.1 DKP, but that’s pretty much where things ended. Melvin Gordon (12.9 DKP), Tyler Boyd (11.2 DKP) and Jay Ajayi (12.6) turned in respectable outings, with Tajae Sharpe (3.1 DKP) and Gary Barnidge (2.1 DKP) being disappointments.
The award for sinking the lineup goes to Brandin Cooks (0 DKP), as he wasn’t even targeted in Week 12. It’s important to learn from the previous week, while also being able to move on, so let’s take a look at a tournament lineup for the main Sunday slate on DraftKings.
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Quarterback
Drew Brees (NO): $7,600 vs. DET
Brees is the most expensive quarterback available on the main slate, but he’s also my highest projected option. He’s coming off of a 36.5 DKP performance in Week 12 against the Rams, and he could very well put up a similar line in Week 13. The Saints have an implied team total pushing 30, as they face the Lions at home, in what is expected to be a shootout.
Brees’ home/road splits have held true this season, as he’s averaged 30.9 DKP in six home games, versus 20.4 DKP in five road games. He will be a chalk play, but this might be an instance where you take the points and run, as you won’t want to miss out on a big performance.
Other Notables:
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): $7,400 vs. NYG
- Matthew Stafford (DET): $7,000 @ NO (GPP)
- Matt Ryan (ATL): $6,800 vs. KC (GPP)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): $6,700 vs. HOU
- Russell Wilson (SEA): $6,300 vs. CAR
- Colin Kaepernick (SF): $6,100 @ CHI (GPP)
- Tyrod Taylor (BUF): $5,700 @ OAK (GPP)
Running Back
Jordan Howard (CHI): $6,900 vs. SF
Another week, another matchup against a porous San Francisco defense. Since Week 8, Howard has averaged exactly 21 touches per contest, while averaging nearly 18 DKP per game over that span.
The 49ers have surrendered 149 rushing yards and a touchdown over their last four games, and they rank dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs. With Matt Barkley under center, I look for the Bears to run early and often, with Howard having a big hand in the final outcome.
James Starks (GB): $4,400 vs. HOU
Starks is my leverage play away from the Green Bay passing attack, and it’s a risky one at that. He saw 22 touches in Week 12 against the Eagles, despite being incredibly inefficient.
Thankfully, head coach Mike McCarthy appears to be sticking with something that’s not working, so I look for another game with at least 15 touches in Week 13 for Starks. The Texans rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points allowed per game to running backs, and Starks could emerge as a low owned gem in tournaments this week.
Other Notables:
- David Johnson (ARI): $9,500 vs. WAS
- Le’Veon Bell (PIT): $9,200 vs. NYG
- LeSean McCoy (BUF): $7,800 @ OAK (GPP)
- Spencer Ware (KC): $6,400 @ ATL
- Theo Riddick (DET): $5,800 @ NO
- Doug Martin (TB): $5,700 @ SD (GPP)
- Todd Gurley (LA): $5,000 @ NE (GPP)
Wide Receiver
Julian Edelman (NE): $6,800 vs. LA
Edelman has seen 45 targets over the last four weeks, including 28 in the last two games. This volume should continue with the news that Rob Gronkowski is out, and the fact that the Patriots are heavy favorites does little to dissuade me from using the wideout this week. The Rams were OK against the pass in Weeks 9 through 11, but they faced a struggling Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill in those three games.
Enter Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 12, and they were lit up to the tune of 360 passing yards and five touchdowns. Edelman is a strong midrange play this week across all formats given his high volume in a good matchup.
Willie Snead (NO): $5,100 vs. DET
Brandin Cooks burned me and a lot of other owners this week, and while I think the narrative is certainly in play with using him this week, I’m going to zig when others zag. Quandre Diggs should be on Snead for a lot of the game, and he’s been torched all season long. While there’s some risk in trying to pinpoint who will get the targets in this offense, Snead will likely pale in comparison to Cooks and Michael Thomas in terms of ownership, which gives him tournament winning upside this week.
Will Fuller (HOU): $4,700 @ GB
Fuller appears to be turning the corner in regards to his health, as evidenced by the fact that he is seeing a decent amount of targets, as well as contributing on special teams as a return man. The matchup against a banged up Green Bay secondary is a good one, and this is a prime chance to snag Fuller at a cheap, low owned salary as he attempts to return to the receiver he was earlier this season.
Other Notables:
- Antonio Brown (PIT): $9,100 vs. NYG (GPP)
- Julio Jones (ATL): $8,700 vs. KC
- Mike Evans (TB): $8,600 @ SD (GPP)
- Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG): $8,500 @ PIT
- Doug Baldwin (SEA): $6,700 vs. CAR
- Brandin Cooks (NO): $6,400 vs. DET
- DeAndre Hopkins (HOU): $6,000 @ GB (GPP)
- Cameron Meredith (CHI): $4,100 vs. SF/Marquess Wilson (CHI): $4,000 vs. SF
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC): $4,700 @ ATL
Kelce has averaged over nine targets per game since Week 9, and he’s produced two games of at least 20 DKP in each of the last two weeks. He’s also seeing more looks in the red zone, which is a boost to his stock, as it’s a matter of time before he scores a touchdown with that kind of volume. The matchup is a plus one on the road, as the Falcons have surrendered 17 catches, 142 receiving yards, and two touchdowns to tight ends over their last three games.
Other Notables:
- Jimmy Graham (SEA): $5,500 vs. CAR (GPP)
- Tyler Eifert (CIN): $5,300 vs. PHI (GPP)
- Zach Ertz (PHI): $4,300 @ CIN
- Eric Ebron (DET): $3,900 @ NO
Flex
Thomas Rawls (SEA): $5,900 vs. CAR
Rawls and the Seahawks’ offense are coming off of a complete disaster in Week 12, so I’m hoping he flies under the radar a bit, especially with attention focused on their passing game. Despite the lackluster performance, he’s the clear top option for this rushing attack, and I expect a better performance as he rounds into form, as this will be his third game back from injury. The Seahawks are solid favorites at home, which could lead to a heavy dose of Rawls on Sunday night.
Defense/Special Teams
Denver Broncos D/ST (DEN): $3,900 @ JAX
The Jaguars have one of the lower implied team totals of the week, and despite them being expensive and popular, I am locking in the Broncos this week. Blake Bortles is prone to turnovers, and this could lead to all sorts of opportunities for the Denver defense.
Other Notables:
- New England Patriots D/ST (NE): $3,700 vs. LA
- Green Bay Packers D/ST (GB): $2,900 vs. HOU (GPP)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers D/ST (TB): $2,500 @ SD (GPP)
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net
