Is this the week Thomas Rawls returns to form?
Aaron Medvidofsky analyzes which players he believes are overvalued or undervalued in Week 13.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Aaron head to FantasyTruth.
In this column, I reveal the players that I believe are being overvalued or undervalued on a weekly basis. This is based on where I stand on a player in comparison to the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, or ECR for short. For Week 13 I’ll be giving you one overvalued and one undervalued player at each position along with the reasons that my opinion differs from the other experts.
Before getting into my Week 12 picks, let’s take a moment and see how I did against the experts in Week 11. These results are based on FantasyPros Fantasy Football Leaders.
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Overvalued
- Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB) ECR: 3rd – Finished: 6th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Rashad Jennings (RB – NYG) ECR: 14th – Finished: 31st – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Brandin Cooks (WR – NO) ECR: 10th – Finished: N/A – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Delanie Walker (TE-TEN) ECR: 4th – Finished: 5th – Winner: ECR
Undervalued
- Joe Flacco (QB – BAL) ECR: 23rd – Finished: 26th – Winner: ECR
- Carlos Hyde (RB – SF) ECR: 18th – Finished: 9th – Winner: FantasyTruth
- Brandon LaFell (WR – CIN) ECR: 44th – Finished: 69th – Winner: ECR
- Will Tye (TE – NYG) ECR: 19th – Finished: 40th – Winner: ECR
I split with the other experts this week at 4-4. Unfortunately my undervalued players didn’t perform this week, with the exception of Carlos Hyde.
Overvalued
Cam Newton (QB – CAR) ECR: 13th
Why the experts like him
While Newton’s production hasn’t matched last year he has been a serviceable QB2 so far this year. He’s always a huge threat to score a rushing touchdown which is a boost to his production, particularly in leagues with four-point passing touchdowns.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Newton is currently the 14th ranked quarterback year to date, and he’s matched up against a top five passing defense in Seattle. Even with plus matchups against Oakland and New Orleans in recent weeks, Newton has only managed to rank 13th and 21st. Newton isn’t a startable fantasy option in Week 13.
Robert Kelley (RB – WAS) ECR: 23rd
Why the experts like him
Kelley is clearly in control of the Redskins’ early-down rushing role. Volume alone will make him a solid play many weeks, and he has shown that he can do a lot with those touches. This has him as an RB2 in most people’s rankings this week.
Why I think he’s overvalued
This week Kelley will be running against the second best rushing defense in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals. They have successfully limited opponents to only 68 rushing yards per game on the season, second only to the Ravens. This offers limited upside and an awful floor for Kelley in this matchup.
Tyrell Williams (WR – SD) ECR: 17th
Why the experts like him
Williams has been the clear top option for the Chargers this year and has been incredibly efficient in that role. The Buccaneers have been pretty bad against opposing wide receivers for most of the year and this has the looks of a high scoring matchup.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Normally I avoid picking injured players, but I made an exception with Williams. That’s because I believe he will play and that many people will start him if he does. Labrum injuries can have a severe impact on range of motion, which some would say is important for wide receivers. There is also the risk of aggravating the injury during the game and missing time which would be a disaster in such a key week of the season.
Greg Olsen (TE – CAR) ECR: 3rd
Why the experts like him
Olsen has been about as reliable of a tight end as you could ask for over the years. He’s consistently had solid yardage and touchdown totals from year to year, even showing improvement in his age 30 season. Many people are still looking at Olsen in that light, even at this point in the season.
Why I think he’s overvalued
Olsen hasn’t been effective since the Panthers Week 7 bye. I believe much of this has to do with Newton’s inefficiency as a passer, but it still makes Olsen a shaky start. He is still probably a must-start for you but is closer to a low-end TE1 this week.
Undervalued
Jameis Winston (QB – TB) ECR: 16th
Why the experts dislike him
Winston has had some ups and downs this season and hasn’t carried over the success he had on the ground last year. The Chargers defense has been underrated this year. While not an elite unit, they have held their own through most of the season.
Why I think he’s undervalued
The Chargers secondary doesn’t have a true No. 1 cornerback right now, which means they will have a tough time covering Mike Evans. If they do dedicate people to stopping him it will open up options for Winston elsewhere. I’m anticipating a high-scoring game here and much of that will be through the air.
Thomas Rawls (RB – SEA) ECR: 20th
Why the experts dislike him
Rawls has had a tough time getting things going since returning in Week 11. This has been partially due to game flow and partially due to the Seahawks’ offensive line. It will be tough for him to get it together against a stout Panthers rushing defense this week.
Why I think he’s undervalued
I believe game flow will give Rawls plenty of opportunities in this matchup. The Panthers have been struggling on offense and will likely be shut down by the Seahawks for much of the game. If he can get 20 touches, all it takes is one big run for Rawls to have a solid fantasy outing.
Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG) ECR: 41st
Why the experts dislike him
Getting zero targets has a way of souring people on a player, and it’s tough to blame them. Last week’s matchup with Cleveland was about as good as you can get, and Shepard was a huge disappointment. People have little optimism that he will fare much better on the road again against Pittsburgh.
Why I think he’s undervalued
Immediately after last week’s game, Eli Manning came out and apologized for not getting Shepard involved and committed to getting him more involved. I’m expecting him to target Shepard much more frequently this week, which will at least put him at his season long baseline and potentially higher. I believe Shepard can be rolled out as a WR3/Flex against Pittsburgh.
Ladarius Green (TE – PIT) ECR: 19th
Why the experts dislike him
Green still hasn’t played a significant amount of snaps since returning from injury. As a result, his production has been fairly limited from week to week. Most people are waiting until they see big results from him before they buy into his role on the offense.
Why I think he’s undervalued
The Steelers coaching staff is saying all of the right things about Green, and he has been effective with the workload he’s been given. This week I’m anticipating a sharp increase in snap count and targets. The Steelers are hurting for receivers right now, and they need Green to take a big step up. I’m ready to start him as a higher end TE2 this week.
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