Austin Hedges has a road to consistent playing time with the rebuilding Padres
Hunter Renfroe was the MVP of the Pacific Coast League last season. He slashed .306/.336/.557 with 30 home runs and 105 RBI in 133 games (498 at-bats). Austin Hedges played 51 fewer games yet hit 21 home runs with a slash line of .326/.353/.597. It could be argued that playing time was the only factor preventing the El Paso Chihuahuas’ catcher from claiming the MVP award.
In 2014, Baseball America ranked Austin Hedges as the No.1 catching prospect ahead of Gary Sanchez, Travis d’Arnaud, Jorge Alfaro and J.T. Realmuto. Until last year, his reputation was fading with the presumption that his bat would never catch up to his glove, but his .951 OPS in Triple-A changed that.
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Very little should be read into the September call-up when he went just 3-for-24, but it is possible that this eight-game stint will help drive down his price on draft day.
2017 will represent the first opportunity for extended playing time in the majors for Hedges, allowing the Padres’ “catcher of the future” to become their “catcher of the present.”
The Lineup
2017 looks to be another difficult year for the Padres, with most projection systems ranking them in the bottom three offensively. However, they far exceeded expectations last year finishing in the top-20 for home runs and 21st in runs and RBI. They were also a top-three team in stolen base attempts. The additions of Hedges’ Triple-A teammates, the highly-ranked outfield prospects Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot, should help strengthen the Padres’ underrated starting nine. Austin Hedges will likely bat toward the bottom of the lineup, allowing the young catcher to focus on working with the Padres’ pitching staff.
The Expectations
The Zeile Consensus Projections forecast a pessimistic slash line of .223/.258/.369 with 10 home runs and 40 RBI over 332 at-bats. There is little competition behind the plate in San Diego, and the former second-round pick has nothing left to prove in the minors, so the projected playing time could increase by one-third. The Padres are unlikely to be vying for postseason baseball this year, so they can afford to let Hedges take his knocks as he adapts to the majors.
Hedges had a 25.3% strikeout rate in 178 plate appearances in the majors. However, 152 of these were back in 2015 and considering he only struck out 51 times in the minors last season, his plate discipline should not be seen as a concern.
Catcher is still the weakest position and Hedges looks capable of finishing in the top-12, if the bar is 14 home runs with a .265 batting average, as per Stephen Vogt in 2016.
The Value
According to the consensus rankings, Hedges is the 21st rated catcher, but he will likely fall further on Draft Day below the more established names of Travis d’Arnaud, Mike Zunino, Yan Gomes and Devin Mesoraco. Obviously, if he can bring his Triple-A bat to the majors, then the 24-year-old will represent excellent value. He has the pedigree of a former top-20 prospect with almost guaranteed playing time fresh off a .326 AVG and .951 OPS season.
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Gavin Tramps is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Gavin, check out his archive or find him @_tramps.
