After the Royals made it to the World Series a few years back, several MLB season projection sources boldly had them finishing below .500. Naturally, they made it back to the World Series that year. Other projections are on the extreme opposite end and don’t contain a single bold take. In those models, no team will win more than 93 games, Kershaw and Trout always win their respective awards and no one is surprised whatsoever. There is a place for both of those types of projections and both can be quite useful, but there is a third type also: the realistic narrative. Think of it this way, if we simulated 1,000,000 seasons, the best MLB team WOULD finish with 92 wins on average, Trout WOULD win the AL MVP most of the time, and Clayton Kershaw WOULD win the NL Cy Young more than anyone else. With that said, we all know every season is much more unique than that. We might see a surprise Diamondbacks team win 95 games, or perhaps Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton turn into aces overnight and the A’s end up in the heat of the playoff race. Maybe Kershaw and Rich Hill both go down with injuries and the Dodgers win 80 games or the Brewers find a way to be competitive and trade for both Jose Quintana and a revived Sonny Gray to sneak into the playoffs. All of these scenarios could happen once or maybe a few times within the 1,000,000 seasons. Today, I’m going to pluck one season from the wide range of possible outcomes and the best way to do that is to hop into the FantasyPros Time Machine and write a review of the 2017.
Major 2017 Transactions
Todd Frazier to the Red Sox
Bobby Dalbec to the White Sox
Lorenzo Cain to the Dodgers
Brock Stewart and Austin Barnes to the Royals
Jose Quintana to Pirates
Austin Meadows and Kevin Newman to the White Sox
Sonny Gray to Yankees
Albert Abreu and Dillon Tate to the A’s
Matt Kemp to Indians
Yandy Diaz and Rob Kaminsky to the Braves
Luis Robert signed by the Cardinals for 5 years, 29 million
J.B. Bukauskas selected 1st overall in MLB Draft by the Twins
Standings
American League East
The Red Sox and Yankees began the season on scorching paces, but both experienced significant injuries to their rotation. The difference ended up being that Boston had depth and the Yankees young hitters, namely Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, both had major struggles. Tampa Bay made a late push after being carried all season by excellent defense and pitching. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ staff let them down as J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez both took big steps backward.
AL East | Record |
Red Sox | 90-72 |
Rays | 85-77 |
Yankees | 82-80 |
Orioles | 81-81 |
Blue Jays | 78-84 |
American League Central
After one month of the Royals appearing to be contenders, the Indians took over and never looked back. Michael Brantley returned to health and had a strong offensive season, while Andrew Miller was used to toss 115 dominant innings out of the bullpen. Many thought the Tigers would sell after getting off to a sluggish start, but when J.D. Martinez returned, they clawed their way back into the race. Eventually, Martinez, Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera would combine to hit 110 homers.
AL Central | Record |
Indians | 98-64 |
*Tigers | 88-74 |
Royals | 75-87 |
Twins | 70-92 |
White Sox | 67-95 |
American League West
In what was quickly realized to be the best division in baseball, the Rangers, Mariners and Astros were neck, neck and neck all season. At one point in July, all three were among the top four records in baseball. King Felix returned to his throne, while Seattle’s’ offense did more than their fair share. It was the Astros’ best lineup and best bullpen in baseball, however, that ended on top, even though they missed out on the Quintana sweepstakes.
AL West | Record |
Astros | 91-71 |
*Mariners | 90-72 |
Rangers | 86-76 |
Angels | 75-87 |
A’s | 73-89 |
National League East
For the first time, Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon all maintained their health for the length of the season. So as you might expect, the Nationals finished the season without surrendering the division lead for even a single day. Much of this was thanks to several key injuries in the Mets’ pitching staff, however. While break-out fill-ins, Rafael Montero and Brandon Nimmo did their part, it wasn’t enough to get New York into the playoffs.
NL East | Record |
Nationals | 95-67 |
Mets | 83-79 |
Phillies | 77-85 |
Marlins | 73-89 |
Braves | 68-94 |
National League Central
Jason Heyward had the best offensive season of his career while Mike Montgomery hit the ground running in the Cubs rotation, but Hendricks, Lester, Lackey and Kyle Schwarber were all disappointments as the Cubs came crashing back down to earth. The Cardinals found enough health in their rotation to compete and the Pirates’ new-founded three-headed-monster kept them in the race, but the Cubs had just enough to pull away in September.
NL Central | Record |
Cubs | 92-70 |
*Cardinals | 90-72 |
Pirates | 84-78 |
Brewers | 75-87 |
Reds | 59-103 |
National League West
Despite major improvement from the Rockies and Diamondbacks, the Dodgers managed to be the best team in baseball from Opening Day until September thanks for full seasons from both Kershaw and Rich Hill. San Francisco struggled to score runs, leaving the door open for the Rockies to crash the Wild Card party. They couldn’t be slowed down on offense once David Dahl and Tom Murphy returned from injury.
NL West | Record |
Dodgers | 101-61 |
*Rockies | 85-77 |
Giants | 81-81 |
Diamondbacks | 81-81 |
Padres | 58-104 |
Awards
AL MVP | Stats |
Jose Altuve | .358 BA, 24 HR, 22 SB |
Mike Trout | .304 BA, 35 HR, 97 RBI |
Justin Upton | .276 BA, 44 HR, 108 RBI |
Mookie Betts | .310 BA, 25 HR, 19 SB |
Kevin Kiermaier | .292 BA, 18 HR, 91 R |
NL MVP | Stats |
Clayton Kershaw | 1.68 ERA, 24-2, 280 K |
Bryce Harper | .327 BA, 50 HR, 117 RBI |
Nolan Arenado | .286 BA, 42 HR, 124 RBI |
Kris Bryant | .277 BA, 37 HR, 102 RBI |
Christian Yelich | .334 BA, 23 HR, 107 R |
AL Cy Young | Stats |
Yu Darvish | 3.05 ERA, 19-6, 294 K |
Corey Kluber | 2.94 ERA, 18-8, 245 K |
Lance McCullers | 2.77 ERA, 14-5, 209 K |
Kevin Gausman | 3.39 ERA, 17-6, 198 K |
Danny Salazar | 3.21 ERA, 15-7, 237 K |
NL Cy Young | Stats |
Clayton Kershaw | 1.68 ERA, 24-2, 280 K |
Stephen Strasburg | 3.02 ERA, 20-5, 244 K |
Noah Syndergaard | 2.63 ERA, 15-8, 246 K |
Rich Hill | 2.26 ERA, 13-5, 182 K |
Madison Bumgarner | 2.80 ERA, 16-9, 225 K |
AL Rookie | Stats |
Andrew Benintendi | .290 BA, 21 HR, 102 R |
Bradley Zimmer | .278 BA, 24 HR, 18 SB |
Yulieski Gurriel | .304 BA, 13 HR, 64 RBI |
Joe Jimenez | 1.87 ERA, 23 Sv, 56 K |
Jharel Cotton | 3.77 ERA, 10-10, 162 K |
NL Rookie | Stats |
Josh Bell | .299 BA, 19 HR, 69 RBI |
Hunter Renfroe | .264 BA, 15 HR, 57 RBI |
Tyler Glasnow | 3.78 ERA, 11-7, 181 K |
Rafael Montero | 2.95 ERA, 8-5, 102 K |
Dansby Swanson | .261 BA, 13 HR, 62 R |
Leaders
Batting Average | |
Jose Altuve | 0.358 |
Christian Yelich | 0.334 |
Xander Bogaerts | 0.332 |
Bryce Harper | 0.327 |
Nick Castellanos | 0.316 |
Home Runs | |
Bryce Harper | 50 |
Justin Upton | 44 |
Nolan Arenado | 42 |
Miguel Sano | 42 |
Jose Bautista | 39 |
Earned Run Average | |
Clayton Kershaw | 1.81 |
Rich Hill | 2.26 |
Danny Duffy | 2.54 |
Johnny Cueto | 2.58 |
Noah Syndergaard | 2.63 |
Playoffs
Tigers/Mariners (Wild Card)
Justin Verlander vs Felix Hernandez
Most expected a pitcher’s dual, but this game saw six homers including two from Mike Zunino. As was true the entire season, the Tigers bullpen was their detriment and Seattle won 10-8.
Cardinals/Rockies (Wild Card)
Jeff Hoffman vs Michael Wacha
The Rockies didn’t have the luxury of tossing ace, Jonathan Gray, to combat the re-invented Wacha. That was the difference, as Hoffman was rocked in a 9-2 Cardinals win.
Astros/Red Sox (Divisional Series)
In a battle of the offenses, the Astros used their home-field advantage to jump out to a 2-0 series lead, then sealed the deal in Game Four as Lance McCullers shut down Boston for the second time in the series.
Indians/Mariners (Divisional Series)
Seattle’s bashers, including white-hot rookie call-up, Tyler O’Neill, were neutralized by the Indians power arms as Kluber, Salazar and Carrasco led the Indians to a quick three-game sweep.
Nationals/Cubs (Divisional Series)
Chicago carried a six-game winning streak into the playoffs and seemed to maintain the momentum when they rocked Strasburg in Washington, but the Cubs’ fatigued pitching staff melted down in the following three games.
Dodgers/Cardinals (Divisional Series)
Historically, St. Louis has had Kershaw’s number in the playoffs, but the lefty-duo had the Cardinals tied in knots, winning all three of the games they pitched in the four-game series win.
Indians/Astros (AL Championship)
The best pitching staff in baseball against the best offense. This series lasted all seven games with 6’7″ rookie, David Paulino, drawing the final start against Corey Kluber on short-rest. Cleveland jumped out to a 3-1 lead, but the Astros’ fought back and their bullpen tossed eight scoreless innings. An A.J. Reed pinch-hit two-run homer put the Astros on top in the 11th and they held on for a trip to the World Series.
Nationals/Dodgers (NL Championship)
Pitching dominated this series with Kershaw, Strasburg, Hill and Scherzer all tossing gems. Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy and Corey Seager all struggled on the offensive side. The difference in the series ended up being two kids and future stars, Cody Bellinger and Julio Urias. Bellinger swatted three homers in the series while Urias tossed a complete game shutout in Game Six to send the Dodgers onward.
Astros/Dodgers (World Series)
McCullers defeated Kershaw in a Game One duel, but the Dodgers won the next two on the backs of Hill, Urias and their electric bullpen led by Kenley Jansen and Grant Dayton. From that moment on, the Astros’ hitting carried the day with extra-base-hits galore including five doubles and two homers from playoff legend and 2017 World Series MVP, Carlos Beltran.
2018 Top 10 Prospects
#1 Eloy Jimenez (OF, CHC)
#2 Victor Robles (OF, WAS)
#3 Kevin Maitan (SS, ATL)
#4 Gleybar Torres (SS, NYY)
#5 Yadier Alvarez (SP, LAD)
#6 Cody Bellinger (1B, LAD)
#7 Jason Groome (SP, BOS)
#8 Luis Robert (OF, STL)
#9 Triston McKenzie (SP, CLE)
#10 Vlad Guerrero Jr. (3B/TOR)
Thanks for reading. Happy Opening Day!