Average Draft Position (ADP) is a must-have piece of information when it comes to drafting. While every league is different and may have a particularly aggressive or conservative group of owners when it comes to certain players, it’s the best tool we have when analyzing players’ value. Now, instead of just talking about total ADP from all sites, we’re going to look at Yahoo’s respective ADP data.
Specifically, we’re going to talk about players who are overvalued — being selected earlier — on Yahoo compared to other sites. Let’s read on about six players to avoid despite their lofty rankings. Don’t succumb to the anchoring effect — a cognitive bias where we over-rely on the first piece of information encountered (like the ADP ranking column in a draft room). ADP data current as of March 9.
Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator 
Adrian Gonzalez (1B – LAD) – Yahoo ADP: 125.8 (NFBC: 168.8, CBS: 176.06)
Gonzalez has seen his fantasy-relevant skills really decline lately. While he’s still a solid ballplayer in real life, we’re mainly concerned with power output from the corner infield slots. He seems to hang around due to name recognition and the default site ranking, which anchors owners into feeling like he should’ve been selected already by the time the 11th round rolls along in 12-team drafts.
Here’s the rub, though. His swing was clearly affected by a back injury last season and yielded far fewer fly balls, which are a prerequisite to hitting homers. His 18 dingers in 2016 tied a career-low mark (2012) and it’s tough to trust A-Gonz moving forward given the dearth of power options available later.
If he had finished the season strong, as it appeared he was doing in August (7 HRs, .330 AVG), then maybe we’d feel confident. But he hit .239 with only two homers in September, so the bad taste is back. With names like Kendrys Morales, Brandon Belt, Victor Martinez, and Matt Holliday going later, don’t overpay for Gonzalez.
Kyle Seager (3B – SEA) – Yahoo ADP: 49.9 (NFBC: 67.64, CBS: 62.77)
This is going to come off harsh because Seager is a very good player, but there’s little value to be had here in selecting him before the 50th pick. For all that he’s drummed up in terms of consistency with power and counting stats, some might be jumping the gun here after his career-best stats last season. They also might just be antsy to grab him after missing out on the “Big Four” when it comes to third basemen.
On the one hand, Seager is only 29 and last season’s growth wasn’t predicated on any metric bearing a wild outlier. On the other hand, it would be just as easy for him to go back to hitting 25 homers with an average in the .260s and run/RBI totals in the 80s. Value-wise, it appears wiser to wait and take someone like Matt Carpenter, Adrian Beltre, or Evan Longoria who should return similar lines.
Jackie Bradley (OF – BOS) – Yahoo ADP: 108.3 (NFBC: 144.87, CBS: 122.8)
It appears that gambling on who the true JBJ is will cost you a higher price in Yahoo leagues, as he’s going three rounds later in NFBC formats. While the 94/26/87/9/.267 line is healthy overall, we know the truth that he was barely startable in three out of the six months of the season. While he hit .272 in April, .381 in May and .298 in July, he also hit .218 in June, .198 in August and .237 in September/October.
While I’m not going to sit here and act like the soon-to-be 27-year-old outfielder doesn’t possess a great ceiling – especially in that lineup and ballpark – it just seems like the opportunity cost is too high to select Dr. Jekyll here when you could be stuck with Mr. Hyde half of the time.
Maybe if he had a stronger track record and more bursts like Justin Upton then I’d be convinced, but we’re not there yet. I’ll take players like Adam Eaton or Stephen Piscotty instead.
Adam Duvall (OF – CIN) – Yahoo ADP: 130.7 (NFBC: 154.52, CBS: 172.80)
Speaking of another guy going right around that Piscotty level, Duvall is going nearly four rounds earlier in Yahoo leagues than he is on the CBS platform. So, who is wrong?
Well, his name being here makes my answer clear. While Duvall’s lovely 33 homers and 103 RBIs fed ample power to his owners last season, it is again hard to trust a younger player like this after pitchers seemingly neutralized him in the second half.
He crushed 23 first-half homers in 324 PAs en route to his appearance in the Home Run Derby, but only slammed 10 homers in 284 second-half PAs after that. When power is your only real tool then you need to be more consistent with it. Owners seeking that hitter profile should just wait and grab Yasmany Tomas (ADP: 173.1) or Joc Pederson (ADP: 190.4) later.
Jake Arrieta (SP – CHC) – Yahoo ADP: 27 (NFBC: 33.57, CBS: 32.31)
This sounds nitpicky, but each pick carries so much more weight the earlier you get. Consider that Arrieta checks in at 43rd overall according to our expert consensus rankings, which makes Arrieta going 26th or 27th pretty bad. The desire for grabbing an “ace” is understandable, and Arrieta’s surface stats still offer that promise of SP1 numbers – as well as 2015’s dominance still being so recent – but we’re at a crossroads right now.
Arrieta’s wild 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP from 2015 was always going to be unlikely to repeat, but many had simply suspected a regression to his 2014 numbers (2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). What happened instead may not have looked so bad to the naked eye (3.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP), but his peripherals shot up across the board. His FIP rose from 2.35 to 3.52, his xFIP from 2.61 to 3.68 and his SIERA from 2.75 to 3.94.
The Cubs do have a stellar defense, but how much can be asked of them? Arrieta’s supreme control abandoned him as his BB/9 nearly doubled to 3.47 from 1.89, making him tough to buy into when it means passing on a proven bat like Edwin Encarnacion or Nelson Cruz.
Masahiro Tanaka (SP – NYY) – Yahoo ADP: 77.2 (NFBC: 88.78, CBS: 99.91)
Tanaka has impressed over his first three MLB seasons, posting a career 39-16 record with a healthy 3.12 ERA and dazzling 1.04 WHIP alongside a useful 8.17 K/9. His bread and butter is the control (mixed in with that nasty splitter), as he’s posted a walk rate below 5% in each season.
He even managed to tame his gopher-ball problems in a season where home runs increased at a league-wide rate, lowering his 2015 HR/9 mark of 1.46 back to 0.99. So, what’s the deal then?
Well, Tanaka saw his strikeout rate noticeably decrease for the second-straight season. It’s gone from 26% even in 2014 to 22.8% in ’15 before finishing at 20.5% last season. His control and steady groundball rate still make him a formidable arm, but the resulting 3.79 SIERA (3.36 in 2015) is a bit troubling.
Opting for contact over strikeouts can make for dangerous waters in the AL East, let alone Yankee Stadium. To be fair, I think Tanaka also qualifies for “undervalued” on CBS, but this is still too early.
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Nick Mariano is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nick, check out his archive and follow him @NMariano53.
