Five weeks into the season, sample sizes are getting bigger, and what could be dismissed as a fluke earlier on is now a definitive trend. For example, the Yankees, to everyone’s dismay, are legit contenders. The Braves, to everyone’s expectation, are not. The Giants, meanwhile, are already playing for the next even year.
That being said, players are not teams, and their sample sizes are still relatively small enough that luck can still play a significant factor. A few hits gained or lost can have drastic effects on a player’s slash line, but by looking at statistics below the surface, more can be determined about the kind of season that player is actually having.
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Buy Lows
If you’re like me, you drafted Carlos Correa this year with high expectations. And, if you’re like me, you’re disappointed with his output so far this season.
Three home runs through 29 games and a .263 batting average aren’t exactly what I expected from my second-round pick. That being said, now may be a good time to buy on Correa if you aren’t someone who drafted him, as his underlying metrics indicate he’s actually been quite good this year.
His hard-hit rate is 44.9 percent, good for 18th in MLB, and that’s backed up by an exit velocity that’s right in line with his career average. He’s also elevating the ball more, hitting nearly 20 percent fewer ground balls than last year. His fly ball rate is consequently up, which might make you question where his power is.
The answer is an 8.6 percent HR/FB rate, less than half his career average. That number should creep back up toward the 19.8 mark he posted between 2015 and 2016, meaning a power surge may be imminent for Correa.
As I’m writing this Monday night, deGrom has just finished his start against the Giants, getting his fifth quality start in seven appearances this season. Of course, another completely factual statement is that he’s allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts.
Home runs killed deGrom again in this one, as all three runs came off of two home runs that pushed his HR/FB rate above 17 percent. He also had 11 strikeouts in this one, marking the fourth time this year he’s reached double digits, second-most in the majors (he’s also second in strikeouts).
DeGrom’s been missing bats all year, as his contact rate allowed on pitches in the zone is lowest in the majors. He also had the third-highest swinging strike rate, behind only Danny Salazar and Chris Sale. It helps that his velocity is back up to his 2015 level when he put up a 2.54 ERA and 2.70 FIP.
If you read the above paragraph, you’ll know that Salazar currently leads all qualified pitchers in swinging strike rate. He’s also allowed the lowest contact rate in that group. But that’s nothing new — Salazar has always had the ability to miss bats.
What’s impressive is how he’s doing it. He’s allowed the fourth-lowest contact rate on pitches in the zone, and the lowest on pitches out of it. He’s struck out the third-highest percentage of batters he’s faced, behind only Chris Sale and deGrom. Yes, he still has a walk problem, but who cares when he’s striking out a third of the batters he faces. His league-worst .385 BABIP will certainly regress, and if his 3.24 FIP is any indication, Salazar is in line for a breakout season.
Sell Highs
Undrafted in most leagues, Hernandez is currently on pace for a 20/20 season. While he may even have a good chance at reaching 20 steals, the odds that he maintains this power are minuscule.
He’s currently hitting 17.4 percent of his fly balls out of the park, more than 10 percentage points higher than last season and more than three times his career rate. It’s not a matter of him suddenly finding power either, as despite recording his highest average exit velocity in a season, he still ranks 199th out of 232 players with at least 50 balls in play in that category.
His .419 BABIP also indicates his average will decline, and his walk rate would be a career low over the course of a full season. Look for his numbers to fall off as the season progresses, and try to sell him before they do.
For Hamels, I want to start with a graph, because it seems as though most of his problems are related to this one big problem.
The velocity on every single one of his pitches is down this season compared to the past few, and that seems to be causing all kinds of problems for him. He’s striking out just 11.5 percent of batters he faces, third-lowest among pitchers with at least 30 IP ahead of only Jeremy Hellickson (who I wrote about last week) and noted slow-ball pitcher Jered Weaver.
It doesn’t seem to be completely a fluke either, as he’s generating a swinging strike on just 7.5 percent of his pitches, tied for 17th-lowest in MLB in that same group and 35 percent lower than his rate in any other season. His rate of contact allowed is also at a career high.
He’s managed a 3.03 ERA for the season, but much of that is due to a deflated .219 BABIP. All of his ERA estimators are over 5, so unless he can find a way to regain his velocity, there’s almost no way he can keep his ERA where it is.
It’s a pitcher-heavy week. Sue me. Everyone in your league probably knows Ervin Santana is due for some level of regression, but they might not realize to what extent Santana has outperformed his underlying numbers. This should give you an idea: Out of all qualified pitchers, Santana has the lowest BABIP at .132.
That on its own should give you some pause. That, coupled with this next fact, should make you put Santana on the trading block as fast as humanly possible: Out of all qualified pitchers, Santana has the highest strand rate at 98 percent.
Most of Santana’s other numbers are in line with his career norms, so it really does seem to be a matter of pure luck. His ERA of 1.72 is nearly two and a half points lower than his FIP of 4.17, and the latter number is closer to what should be expected from the 34-year-old righty the rest of the way.
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Brian Reiff is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
