Fantasy Football Rankings: Expert Consensus vs. CBS ADP

This is the first in a series of pieces comparing the ECR against the ADP at various fantasy football providers. CBS’s ADP compared to the ECR kicks things off. Below I’ll highlight some notable discrepancies at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end in standard scoring leagues. I won’t highlight every player who falls within the +/- range indicated in the sections below, but if you would like to do further tinkering or see how the ECR and CBS ADP compare in different scoring formats (PPR and half PPR), you can do so here.

Check out more Fantasy Football Rankings Dissenting Opinions

Quarterback (+/-4)

ECR likes him more

 
CBS Sports ADP likes him more

 
I’ll start by directing you to a piece I previously wrote about players to avoid in DRAFT leagues that includes Cam Newton. While we’re not talking about best-ball leagues in this piece, my reasoning for not touching Newton there supports my belief he’s being grossly overvalued in CBS leagues. In fact, I think he’s overvalued in the ECR, too, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable selecting him as my QB1. Simply put, he’s not going to end up on my rosters this year since at least someone will roll the dice based on his history as a runner and MVP 2015 season.

With three quarterbacks who add value with their legs in the second table, I’m surprised to learn the ECR for Marcus Mariota is five higher than his CBS ADP. I’m with the CBS ADP, though. Mariota improved his touchdown rate passing (5.1% in 2015 to 5.8% last year) and cut back on his interception rate (2.7% in 2015 to 2.0% in 2016), per Pro-Football Reference, and he took 15 fewer sacks in three more games played, so he’s improving. However, I can’t see drafting him as a top-10 QB when the Titans attempted the fifth fewest passes last year (504), and they still feature the workhorse duo of DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the backfield. I like the upside and would gladly make him a high-end QB2 as his CBS ADP pegs him.

It might feel like a player hater’s ball in this section, but Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott are overrated at their CBS ADP and more properly ranked by the ECR. Winston has all sorts of weapons to work with this year with the addition of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard, but selecting him as the fifth QB off the board requires him to take a big step forward this year while eliminating potential surplus value even if he does. Put another way, a breakout would basically only result in breaking even as the QB5.

Prescott’s ADP has likely gotten a shot in the arm with Ezekiel Elliott‘s suspension (which he and the NFLPA are appealing) for six games. If his suspension is reduced, that will make the reach at QB9 even worse, but even if Zeke remains suspended for the six games, the Cowboys might still choose to lean on their running game. In 2015, Darren McFadden ranked fourth in rushing yards (1,089) despite carrying the ball just 37 times in the Cowboys first five games of the year. Alfred Morris is also a capable runner behind Dallas’ supremely talented offensive line. The Cowboys attempted the third fewest passes in 2016 (483) and were one of just four teams to fail to throw the ball at least 500 times. Prescott was sharp last year, and his 282 yards rushing and six scores on the ground helped offset the low volume through the air. In order to be a top-10 QB, though, head coach Jason Garrett and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan will need to let the sophomore quarterback cut it loose more often this year. Maybe they will, or maybe they’ll continue to rely heavily on the ground game while easing Prescott’s aerial workload upward.

Running Back (+/-6)

ECR likes him more

 
CBS Sports ADP likes him more

 
It seems natural to pick up with the Cowboys, and it’s odd to see both Zeke and Alfred Morris carrying a higher CBS Sports ADP than ECR. My initial thought was that Zeke’s ADP has yet to catch up with the suspension, but that doesn’t quite add up with Morris’ ADP 21 spots higher than the ECR. I’d split the difference on Zeke’s ADP and ECR while there’s still potential for his suspension to be reduced or overturned and take him as RB9. A couple of other teammates make the tables with Frank Gore featured in the top table and Marlon Mack in the bottom one. I recently included Mack on my All Undrafted Team. The rookie’s inclusion is partly due to his explosiveness and partly due to Gore’s age, back-to-back seasons under four yards per rush attempt, and the potential for a cliff season. Suffice to say, I wouldn’t select Gore as a top-30 RB, and I’d gladly take Mack at his RB55 CBS ADP.

Prior to Devonta Freeman signing a lucrative five-year contract extension with the Falcons earlier this month, I was more bullish on Tevin Coleman‘s outlook. Freeman’s big deal has me cooling my jets, however, and viewing Coleman as the complementary back we saw last year. In a complementary role, Coleman nearly amassed 1,000 yards from scrimmage (941), but his value was inflated by eight rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores. Coleman’s one of the most intriguing backup running backs in the NFL, but he’s more of an RB3 than an RB2 with the Falcons clearly committed to Freeman as their stud do-it-all back.

I’ve been driving the Rex Burkhead bandwagon all offseason as you can read here, here, here, and here. With Mike Gillislee continuing to miss time with a hamstring issue, I’m not vacating my spot in the driver seat of the bandwagon anytime soon, and I’d advocate taking him higher than the RB57 ECR! He’s being comically underrated in CBS ADP. Similarly, Latavius Murray is being insanely overrated in CBS ADP. The Vikings traded up to select Dalvin Cook in the second round, and offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and tight end Kyle Rudolph have already praised the rookie’s offseason work. Meanwhile, Murray continues to recover from ankle surgery in March. Murray’s working, but he’s yet to go through a full practice, and it’s not clear if he’ll play in the team’s second preseason game. There’s no way Murray should currently be going off the board as an RB3 like he is at his CBS ADP.

Wide Receiver (+/-8)

ECR likes him more

 
CBS Sports ADP likes him more

 
I didn’t elaborate on all of the names in the running back tables above, and I won’t touch on all of the receivers featured in the tables, either. Starting with the top table, I’ve previously discussed while I’ll be avoiding Allen Robinson in DRAFT leagues, and the reasoning supports why I’ll be avoiding him in standard scoring leagues, too. Brandon Marshall, who’s in the second wide receiver table, is also included in the linked piece. Julian Edelman is the third receiver I covered in the linked article, but I also noted in that particular write up that Edelman’s a “far better player in standard leagues.” While that’s true, I’d split the difference on his CBS ADP and ECR leaning closer to his ECR. Edelman should continue to be used regularly in the high-octane Patriots offense, but he’ll have plenty of competition for targets, and he wasn’t a big touchdown scorer before the club’s offseason additions.

I’m not a fan of Jarvis Landry‘s ECR, and I downright loathe his CBS ADP. As I discussed before, Landry’s value took a nosedive with the emergence of Jay Ajayi. No thanks, I’ll pass on him as a top-30 WR. Josh Doctson is another receiver who I’ve discussed before, and he was included on my All Undrafted Team. Doctson recently returned to practice, and I love him at his ECR just outside the top-50 wide receivers. Someone has to catch balls when the Jets are playing catch up all year, and sophomore wide out Robby Anderson headlines the receiving corps for the Jets. Having said that, the Jets’ quarterbacks are awful. I wouldn’t select Anderson as a top-60 WR, but he’s a viable lotto ticket just after the top 60 and before his WR72 CBS ADP.

Chris Hogan‘s regular season totals in his first year with the Patriots don’t jump off the page, but as I discussed here, he did some things extremely well. He’s a big-play machine who can get open downfield in a high-powered offense with many weapons defenses will have to account for. Hogan went nuts in the playoffs reeling in 17-of-23 targets for 332 yards and two touchdowns. His ability to get behind secondaries will secure him a role in the offense and result in some big plays. Sign me up for that on my bench in standard scoring leagues (some PPR leagues, too), as he’s a nice high-upside option to use on bye weeks or in the event of injuries. I’d scoop him around WR75 which is much closer to his CBS ADP than his ECR.

Tight End (+/-6)

ECR likes him more

 
CBS Sports ADP likes him more

 
Coby Fleener was a trendy pick last year. Gamers salivated at the thought of what Fleener could do with the 110 targets Ben Watson saw the year before — and it’s not like Watson was a slouch with those targets turning them into 74 receptions for 825 yards and six scores. Jimmy Graham was a stud catching passes from Drew Brees. The excitement was understandable, yet Fleener managed a meager 50 receptions for 631 yards and three touchdowns on 81 targets. Last season represented just another year of Fleener under performing lofty expectations with his 51-774-8 season in 2014 representing his best fantasy showing. I’m bearish on his touchdown upside with the bruising backfield duo of Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson in place to vulture red-zone touchdowns on the ground, and that’s saying nothing of 6-foot-3 Michael Thomas coming off a rookie season in which he caught nine touchdowns. There comes a point in the draft when it’s worth rostering Fleener in the hopes Brees elevates the tight end’s play as he’s done with tight ends before, but it’s not at TE14 (ECR), and I’m not sure it’s at TE20 (CBS ADP), either.

CBS drafters love rookie tight ends with both O.J. Howard and Evan Engram going eight picks higher than their ECR. I like both players’ long-term outlook, but I’m siding with the ECR for both players. Also, I’d prefer tight end Cameron Brate if picking between Tampa Bay’s tight ends. He and Winston have developed rapport in the passing game already, and that helped Brate snag eight touchdown grabs in 15 games last year. Football Outsiders’ (FO) advanced stats were impressed with Brate’s work, as he ranked tied for fourth in DYAR (149) and eighth in DVOA (20.4%) out of 46 qualified tight ends. Brate also ranked fifth among tight ends who received a minimum of five targets in Sharp Football Stats’ Target & Output Adjusted Receiving Success (TOARS) advanced metric. I’d gladly select Brate as my backup tight end inside the top 20 selected at the position.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.