An undervalued player isn’t necessarily a player who can be had cheap. Only two of the players highlighted below are being selected outside the top-100 picks. They’re not the same as sleepers or late-round targets (who I’ve already tackled in another piece). Sure, the guys I featured as late-round targets are undervalued by my estimation, but, again, values aren’t reserved for the later portion of the drafts. The following players should either be selected higher than their ADP or, at the least, are being drafted after players at the same position who have no business going before them.
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Kirk Cousins (QB – WAS) – 97.1
What in the world does Cousins have to do in order to get the respect he deserves in fantasy leagues? He barely cracks the top-100 picks and his ADP is tied with Ben Roethlisberger for QB10. That’s absurd. Among quarterbacks who’ve thrown a minimum of 450 passes since the start of the 2015 season, Cousins ranks fourth in passing yards (9.083), third in completion percentage (68.32%), tied for 12th in touchdown passes (54), sixth in Quarterback Rating (99.3), fifth in yards gained per pass attempt (7.91), sixth in adjusted yards gained per pass attempt (7.94), and seventh in passing yards per game (283.8), according to Pro-Football-Reference. Pro Football Focus (PFF) gave him the ninth highest overall grade at quarterback, and he ranked third in DYAR (1,317), fifth in DVOA (20.9%), and sixth in QBR (71.7), per Football Outsiders (FO). Traditional statistics and advanced measures are in agreement that Cousins is a stud, and the Big Three of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks who I’d rank clearly ahead of him this season. That’s not to say he’ll definitely be the fourth highest scoring quarterback this season, but that’s a rank that’s within reach. He’s a better value at his ADP than the likes of Andrew Luck (63.0), Matt Ryan (69.2), and Russell Wilson (78.0). He’d be a better value selected a full round earlier than his ADP in 10-team or 12-team leagues, too. Furthermore, it’s mind boggling that Jameis Winston (89.8), Cam Newton (94.8), and Marcus Mariota (95.1) are being selected in front of him, even with the value they add with their legs.
Mike Gillislee (RB – NE) – 48.4/Rex Burkhead (RB – NE) – 189.1
I’ve been pounding the table for drafting this duo all offseason, and while I didn’t discuss them specifically with DRAFT leagues in mind, the info in this piece from early July is pertinent for understanding my infatuation with Gillislee and Burkhead. I’ll spare myself the work of using the same numbers to illustrate how good both of these backs are. Instead I’ll point out more proof of their excellence in 2016 I stumbled upon. Warren Sharpe is one of the most well respected football numbers guys in the business, and I’ve been familiar with his work for years. Only recently, however, have I discovered his advanced stats website with a treasure trove of information available for free. Turning attention back to New England’s duo of talented runners, they were two of the most successful red-zone runners in the NFL last year as you can see here. Among backs who had at least 10 carries in the red zone, Burkhead ranked sixth in Successful Play Rate (64%), and Gillislee was far and away the leader with a 94% mark (next closest was Derrick Henry at 77%).
Less talented runner LeGarrette Blount led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns last year, and since 2015, he’s tied with David Johnson for the league lead with 24. Expecting one back in the backfield to duplicate Blount’s 18 rushing touchdowns is probably too ambitious, but if you set sights at the average of his last two years of 12 rushing touchdowns, that’s more realistic with an even greater ceiling still possible. As a backup running back for the Bills, Gillislee managed to rank tied for 15th at running back in rushing touchdowns since 2015 with 11. Now the likely lead runner for his new club’s stable of backs and tied to a higher-octane offense, the touchdown scoring should be plentiful. Don’t mistake Gillislee for a back who’s completely reliant on touchdowns for value. Among backs who’ve carried the ball a minimum of 100 times since 2015, his 5.7 yards per attempt is the most, and if you set the threshold a little lower to only 80 carries, he’s second to Ty Montgomery (5.89) — who I also love in DRAFT leagues, but he’s more fairly priced at an ADP of 36.9. Gillislee is RB18 in DRAFT league ADP. At the same cost, I’d rather have Gillislee than Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, and Isaiah Crowell at minimum, and all three are being selected before New England’s new weapon in the backfield. Furthermore, I’d rather turn my attention to others in the ADP range of Devonta Freeman (10.9), Todd Gurley (23.9), Lamar Miller (26.1), and Marshawn Lynch (29.6), and reach as many as 10-12 picks higher than Gillislee’s ADP in order to secure his rights and offset passing on that quartet of backs. Burkhead’s laughably underrated and a great handcuff or standalone pick who should be flirting with a top-150 ADP as opposed to slipping to a fringe top-200 pick.
Pierre Garcon (WR – SF) – 76.6
Garcon’s very good, and he doesn’t get the credit he deserves. He downgrades offenses going from the Redskins to the 49ers, but he offsets that by being the No. 1 pass-catching option by a wide margin. I gushed about Garcon in the middle of last month, and you can read that here. I also talked about him as a compelling option as part of an extremely cheap stack with Brian Hoyer. There’s no reason for me to re-write the same advanced stats that illustrate how good Garcon was last year, and instead I’ll turn my attention to more stats that showcase Garcon’s under valued.
Among all receivers and tight ends since 2015, Garcon ranks 26th in receptions (151) and 23rd in receiving yards (1,818) while reeling in nine touchdown receptions, per Pro-Football-Reference. Gillislee isn’t the only player in this piece who I dug up more intriguing stats for at Sharp Football Stats. That site has a measure called TOARS which is an acronym for target and output adjusted receiving success. Last year, among receivers who were targeted at least 50 times, Garcon ranked 20th in TOARS. Garcon’s an excellent value by traditional statistical measures and advanced metrics, too.
Mike Wallace (WR – BAL) – 117.2
I was not a fan of Wallace entering last year and thought the signing by the Ravens was foolish. He was terrible in 2015 with the Vikings, and that followed an underwhelming two-year stint with the Dolphins. Even Wallace’s final year in Pittsburgh (2012) wasn’t inspiring. He hadn’t bested 1,000 yards receiving since 2011, the second of back-to-back 1,000-plus yard receiving seasons. Wallace did show an aptitude for finding pay dirt even in some down years hauling in eight in 2012, five in 2013, and 10 in 2014. I was wrong about Wallace’s tank being empty, and last year, he was targeted 116 times and caught 72 passes for 1,017 yards and four touchdowns. He and quarterback Joe Flacco were on the same page, and Wallace ranked second on the team in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns while leading the team in receiving yards. The team leaders in each of those other categories — Dennis Pitta in targets and receptions and Steve Smith in receiving touchdowns — are no longer in the mix this year, lessening the concern about the additions of Jeremy Maclin and Danny Woodhead and the possibility of Breshad Perriman taking a step forward this year. Wallace should be viewed as the best option in Baltimore’s passing attack, and Baltimore led the NFL in pass attempts last year. I don’t expect the Ravens to lead the NFL in passing attempts again this year, but Wallace’s perch atop the receiving options in Baltimore makes for a nice get at his cheap cost.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
