Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Total: 43.0
Line: TEN by 5.5
QBs
Joe Flacco: This is speculation at this point, but given the 10 days to get cleared, I’d expect to see Flacco on the field for this game. After allowing three top-eight performances to quarterbacks in their first four games, the Titans have now held each of the last three quarterbacks to 14 points or less, though it should be noted they were Jay Cutler, Jacoby Brissett, and DeShone Kizer. To be fair, that’s the territory Flacco is in. He shouldn’t be relied on outside of 2QB leagues, where he should be able to post at least 200 yards and a touchdown.
Marcus Mariota: What a bad taste I have left in my mouth from starting Mariota in cash before their bye week when he failed to throw a single touchdown against the Browns. He had the bye week to rest and forget about it, but against Baltimore, a team that has allowed just one quarterback to score more than 11 fantasy points? They have actually held 6-of-8 quarterbacks to less than 190 passing yards. If Mariota does something, it’ll likely be with his legs. He’s just a middling QB2 option for this game.
RBs
Alex Collins and Javorious Allen: Over the last four weeks, Collins has averaged 13.8 carries while Allen has averaged 13.5 carries. So why does it feel like Collins is the one you want? Oh, because he’s actually making plays on the field, averaging nearly 20 more rushing yards per game more than Allen. The issue is that the Titans are one of the better run-stuffing teams in the league, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns through seven games. They have, however, allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs, which is where Allen trumps Collins. Consider Allen a solid RB3 for this game who is better in PPR formats, while Collins will need to break a long one because nobody runs the ball consistently against the Titans, making him just a desperation RB3/4-option.
DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry: The bye week should have helped Murray get a bit healthier, as he’s claimed to have been playing through a hamstring injury the entire season. At 29 years old, it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be the game-changing back he once was. The Ravens have looked better with defensive tackle Brandon Williams back, which will make it difficult for Murray to regain form in this game. In the four games without him, the Ravens allowed 613 rushing yards or 153.3 per game. With him in the lineup, they’ve allowed just 84.5 rushing yards per game. Murray shouldn’t be counted on as anything more than a middling RB2 who has minimal upside, while Henry is just a desperation RB4 who needs a long run to deliver any sort of value.
WRs
Jeremy Maclin: It’s been a rough season for Maclin, who has been nicked up for the last month, it seems. Outside of their Week 1 game where Flacco threw the ball just 17 times, Maclin has seen at least five targets in every contest, making him the go-to receiver in the offense. The issue is the lack of yardage out of Flacco, which has led to Maclin being a touchdown-dependent wide receiver who hasn’t totaled more than 56 yards in any one game. He’s got a solid matchup against Logan Ryan and company in this game, making him a low-upside WR3, which is seemingly the norm.
Mike Wallace: Opposite of Maclin, Wallace has seen five or more targets just three times this year and has caught more than three passes just once. His 12.8-yard average depth of target is much higher than Maclin’s 8.7, which means he’ll have the bigger splash plays from time-to-time. Against Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims, he should have an opportunity to make a splash play or two. Consider Wallace a decent WR4 option with bye weeks here.
Corey Davis: Coming off a multi-week absence, you typically want to give a player a week to settle back into the groove of things. It makes it easier knowing that the Ravens are a brutal matchup for any wide receiver, seeing they have allowed just one perimeter wide receiver to finish top-24 against them in any week. The duo of Jimmy Smith and Brandon Carr has been exceptional, making Davis just a questionable WR4 in his return to the lineup.
Rishard Matthews: Going against the same duo as Davis, it’ll be tough for Matthews to post anything more than WR4 numbers against them. He’s also been in a bit of a funk even without Davis, totaling fewer than 50 yards in three of his last four games, despite great matchups.
Eric Decker: The best matchup on the field goes to Decker, who will line up against Ladarius Webb. He’s allowed nearly 15 yards per reception while covering slot receivers, a massive number. The issue is that Decker himself has been a mixed bag, coming off a zero-catch performance against the Browns just one week after he rocked a season-high seven catches for 88 yards against the Colts. He’s just a dicey WR4/5 option who has yet to score a touchdown.
TEs
Ben Watson: Outside of one game against the Browns (who get demolished by every tight end), Watson has failed to finish with more than 43 yards in any game and has posted 12 yards or less in half of his games. Teams have not had much success with their tight ends against the Titans, so feel free to keep him on the bench.
Delanie Walker and/or Jonnu Smith: It seemed like Walker hurt his ankle very badly in the Week 7 game against the Browns that had him leave the stadium in crutches, but he’s yet to be ruled out for this game. They are saying it’s a bone bruise. It’s something to pay attention to because quarterbacks have had a lot of success targeting tight ends against the Ravens, as they’ve allowed six touchdowns on just 37 targets to them. Quarterbacks have had a 134.6 QB Rating when targeting tight ends, which is something the Titans should really know coming off their bye week. If Walker can play, he’s good enough to play as a TE1 in fantasy. If he can’t, Smith becomes one of the better streaming options at tight end this week.
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Total: 39.5
Line: JAX by 4.0
QBs
Andy Dalton: I’m going to save some energy here – don’t use Dalton against a Jaguars defense that’s destroyed opposing quarterbacks all season. No quarterback has scored more than 11 fantasy points against them while throwing the football. He’s a bottom-five quarterback play this week.
Blake Bortles: The Bengals secondary has been hurting a bit, but not enough to consider Bortles as a streamer. They have yet to allow Bortles throw more than 35 times this season, which is what it would take for him to post big numbers against a Bengals defense that allows just 6.07 yards per attempt. He’s just a low-end QB2 in this game.
RBs
Joe Mixon, Jeremy Hill, and Giovani Bernard: It was good to see Mixon not punished for his words last week, though he ran the ball 11 times for just 18 yards against the Colts. The biggest highlight of his day was a 67-yard catch and run where the Bengals got him into some open space, where he’s most dangerous. He’s now caught three passes in each of the last two weeks, while Bernard has just one catch in those two games. The touch ratio since Bill Lazor took over as the offensive coordinator now sits at Mixon 81, Hill 27, Bernard 21. This is Mixon’s backfield, though they have leaned on the passing game more often. Against the Jaguars it should be the opposing, making Mixon a high-end RB2, while Hill and Bernard are best left on fantasy benches.
Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory: Coming off their bye week, Fournette returned to practice on Monday, reassuring fantasy owners they’ll get their stud back in Week 9. Through six games, Fournette has yet to touch the ball fewer than 16 times in any one game and has totaled 23 or more touches in 4-of-6 games. It’s a legitimate question to wonder whether or not the Jaguars will ease him back into action versus the Bengals, who have one of the better run-stopping units in the league. They have allowed just 3.66 yards per carry to this point and just two rushing touchdowns, though none since the start of Week 5. Fournette is no stranger to tough defenses and the Jaguars defense prevents them from getting blown out, so consider Fournette a very safe RB1 despite the tough matchup. Here are his weekly finishes, in order: RB4, RB14, RB13, RB7, RB2, RB9. Is that good? Ivory is just a handcuff right now who may have lost some snaps to T.J. Yeldon with the way he played while Fournette was out.
WRs
A.J. Green: Everyone wanted to play Green last week, and nobody is going to want to play Green this week. It’s not a great matchup by any means, as the Jaguars have the No. 1 tandem at cornerback with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, but Green is just as elite at his position and can win any one-on-one battle. Both DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown were heavily targeted against the Jaguars and were able to finish as WR1 options – Green needs to be in lineups.
Marqise Lee: Most dropped Lee after a few disappointing performances, but he’s likely being picked right back up after back-to-back 70-plus yard games. The Bengals aren’t a team to attack on the perimeter, which is where Lee runs about 80 percent of his routes. Antonio Brown is the only wide receiver to finish top-24 against them over the last four weeks, meaning Lee is not a must-play in this game. With bye weeks here, you could do worse than him as a WR4 who will see targets.
Allen Hurns: The area of weakness for the Bengals secondary has been their slot, though Darqueze Dennard has played better than he did last year. Still, he’s allowed two touchdowns in his coverage this year, which is something Hurns has been able to do twice himself this season. He’s not a sexy play or anything, but he’s got a better matchup than Lee, making him a WR4 during bye weeks.
TEs
Tyler Kroft: If you’re playing in a PPR league, Kroft has been a welcome addition to your team, as he’s now caught at least four passes in each of the last four games, though his yardage totals aren’t through the roof. Think of him as Austin Seferian-Jenkins-like, where he’s not going to deliver high yardage totals, but he should score in good matchups. The Jaguars aren’t necessarily a good matchup, but when you factor in that Green has a tough matchup, those targets have to go somewhere. Kroft is a high-end TE2 with all the targets he’s been getting.
Marcedes Lewis: Let’s be real, you shouldn’t be playing, let along rostering Lewis. Outside of his one London game that included 62 yards and three touchdowns, he’s totaled exactly three catches for 43 yards and one touchdown in the other six games combined.
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 43.5
Line: PHI by 7.5
QBs
Brock Osweiler: If there was a game to make the quarterback change and hoping to turn things around, the Eagles are a good opponent to do that against. They have allowed seven of the eight quarterbacks they’ve played to finish in the top-18 for that particular week, including six of them to finish top-12 (QB1 territory). They aren’t going to run the ball with much efficiency against the Eagles front-seven, making Osweiler very startable in 2QB formats.
Carson Wentz: In his first game without his left tackle Jason Peters, Wentz threw for 6.6 yards per attempt, two touchdowns and one interception… against the 49ers. We aren’t out of the woods with Wentz yet. This matchup against the Broncos will be a tough one, as they’ve yet to allow a quarterback to finish top-10 in any week. Over the last two weeks, Philip Rivers and Alex Smith combined for less than 400 yards passing and three touchdowns. Wentz is just a QB2 this week and one that I’d sit for someone like Tyrod Taylor.
RBs
C.J. Anderson, Devontae Booker, and Jamaal Charles: What a mess this has become, as the Broncos seem determined to keep this a three-way timeshare for whatever reason. Because of that, Anderson cannot be trusted as anything more than a high-end RB3 against the Eagles, who have allowed just one running back more than 38 yards rushing, and that was Kareem Hunt back in Week 2. Where the Eagles have struggled is pass-catching running backs, allowing eight running backs to rack up 20 or more receiving yards. Since Booker’s return, he has caught 10 passes for 114 yards in the last three games, while Anderson has just two catches for 24 yards, and Charles has six catches for 27 yards. It’s odd to say, but Booker may have flex value this week against the Eagles, while Charles is getting further and further off the map.
Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount: Now that we’ve added another layer to the Eagles backfield with Ajayi, we now officially know nothing. What we do know is that no Eagles running back has totaled more than 16 carries in any one game this year and there’s been just two times in Doug Pederson’s time coaching the Eagles where a running back has totaled 20 carries. Know that this is a better situation for Ajayi, but his volume is going to go way down. He had already hit 23 or more carries four times this year. Knowing that they are about to go against a Broncos defense that has allowed a remarkable 2.09 yards per carry on the season and no rushing touchdowns, it might be best for you to bench both of them if possible. With bye weeks, that’s unlikely, but stay away in DFS until we get a clearer picture.
WRs
Demaryius Thomas: Over the last two weeks, he’s struggled to find room to operate with Sanders on the shelf, but he’s back this week. The Eagles may get Ronald Darby back, but he’ll be coming off a multi-week absence and wouldn’t shadow. Knowing the Broncos will be starting Osweiler should give you a tad more confidence with Thomas, so feel free to plug him in as a low-end WR2.
Emmanuel Sanders: It seemed like Sanders was close to playing last week, so we should assume he’ll be close to 100 percent. He falls into the same category as Thomas with the quarterback questions, but knowing of his ankle injury, he’s just a tier below Thomas. As long as he suits up, play him as a WR3 against the Eagles that have allowed multiple top-40 wide receivers in four of their eight games.
Bennie Fowler: Now that Sanders is expected back, don’t contemplate starting Fowler.
Alshon Jeffery: Despite seeing 24 more targets than his teammate Nelson Agholor, Jeffery has been outscored 69.2 to 63.6 this year. He fortunately caught a touchdown last week, otherwise he’d have been moved out of my top-20 wide receivers for the remainder of the season. He’s been a disappointment thus far and will play against Aqib Talib the majority of this week, making him a risky WR3 that would need a touchdown to even get you that value.
Nelson Agholor: Playing much better than anyone expected, Agholor gets to match-up with one of the game’s premier slot cornerbacks Chris Harris Jr. this week. That doesn’t end well for the game’s best wide receivers, as Harris allows fewer than five yards per target in his coverage. Agholor is just a WR4, even during bye weeks.
TEs
A.J. Derby: Emerging as the go-to tight end for the Broncos, Derby has now totaled at least 66 yards and/or a touchdown in three of the last four games. The Eagles aren’t known to be a team to attack with tight ends over the last two years, though Jordan Reed would disagree with his 64-yards, two-touchdown performance a few weeks ago. Derby is trending up, but not enough to get him on the TE1 radar this week. I will mention that Osweiler targeted his tight ends a ton while with the Texans last year.
Zach Ertz: He’s been the best tight end in football this year and it’s not even all that close. He has scored at least 8.1 fantasy points in every single game, though he’s totaled less than 35 yards in two of his last three games. With Ajayi in town, he may lose some of the short-yardage touchdowns that he’s been getting, but this isn’t a week to worry about that. The Broncos are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, which has included a massive 77.6 yards per game to them and four touchdowns. Ertz is an elite TE1 this week.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Total: 46.0
Line: HOU by 7.0
QBs
Jacoby Brissett: He’s totaled more than 15 rushing yards just three times this year, which isn’t exactly the rushing volume we were hoping for, but it seems he has the job for the remainder of the season. He’s now thrown the ball at least 34 times in each of the last four games, meaning the Colts are trusting him more with the ball in his hands. The Texans just lost another piece off their front-seven and are now officially among the worst in football. Outside of Kevin Hogan‘s Week 6 performance, the Texans have allowed almost 800 yards passing and seven touchdowns in the two games since losing J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus. Brissett should rack up the attempts in this game, knowing the Texans will put up points, making him a somewhat streamable QB2 in this matchup who could surprise.
Tom Savage: This is one of the sadder stories of 2017. Deshaun Watson was not only playing like the rookie of the year, but he was playing like an MVP of the league. Knowing we have to go back to Savage is brutal, especially for those who own Deandre Hopkins or Will Fuller. Heck, this even affects Lamar Miller. The Colts have yet to allow a quarterback finish with fewer than 14 fantasy points, but there’s a first for everything. Knowing he’s on short notice with Watson going down on Thursday, I wouldn’t even want to trust Savage in 2QB leagues. The real question is… will he throw his first career touchdown in this game?
RBs
Frank Gore and Marlon Mack: It was Gore’s biggest game of the season in Week 8, only he was outscored by Mack in fantasy. Since returning from his injury in Week 5, Mack has averaged 8.8 touches per game, turning that into 240 total yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Gore has averaged 14.5 touches in that span, turning them into 288 yards and no touchdowns. It’s only a matter of time before Mack starts to see consistent double-digit touches. Gore is a somewhat safe RB3 during bye weeks, though Mack presents the higher ceiling, especially in a game where the Colts will be forced to go no-huddle when they fall behind. Mack can be played as a risk/reward RB3/4-option in this game.
Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman: Sure, he scored two touchdowns last week. He’s now scored in two games this year and has yet to eclipse 75 rushing yards despite averaging a massive 17.0 carries per game. Miller is like the younger, better version of Gore, as he is a lock to get you 70-90 yards every week, though not much more. At the rate the Texans offense is scoring, it’s hard not to like the guy who is getting the majority of their touches though, so consider him a low-end RB1 for this game. Foreman played exactly one snap last week. Maybe it was for him missing practice last week because of the owner’s comments, maybe it wasn’t. Whatever the case, he’s unplayable until further notice.
WRs
T.Y. Hilton: Staying with the Colts through the trade deadline, the Colts need to make things right with Hilton. This is a week where he should be featured, as the Texans don’t have a cornerback to hang with him in coverage. Knowing the Colts will be playing from behind and that Brissett is likely to chuck the ball up 35-plus times, Hilton should see eight-plus targets against a team that was demolished by similar speedster Brandin Cooks a few weeks back for 131 yards and two touchdowns. With the lack of pass-rush for the Texans, there should be plenty of time for Hilton to get free in coverage.
Donte Moncrief: Seeing just five targets over the last two weeks isn’t a great sign, but playing against the perimeter cornerbacks of the Jaguars and Bengals definitely doesn’t help. The Texans got Kevin Johnson back last week, but he promptly allowed six catches for 90 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, showing some signs of rust. Moncrief isn’t a great option, but he’s on the WR4 radar with bye weeks here.
DeAndre Hopkins: So, this Hopkins character is pretty good, eh? Good thing he didn’t get disciplined like D’Onta Foreman did for skipping practice for personal reasons. Hopkins now has six touchdowns in the last four games and has totaled at least 52 yards in all but one game this season. But now for the bad news – he lost his QB1 and will be forced to play with Tom Savage. You remember, the guy who has yet to throw a touchdown pass? Knowing how bad the Colts are, you still start him as a WR1, but don’t expect another 200-yard, two-touchdown game.
Will Fuller: Even before Watson tore his ACL, if I could put a wager on Fuller scoring less than five touchdowns the remainder of the season, I would’ve make that bet every day of the week. He proved me completely wrong last week, hauling in another two touchdowns. He now has seven touchdowns on 22 targets this season. It’s beyond ridiculous. Expect the Texans to go extremely run-heavy against the Colts, making Fuller just a WR3, even in a great matchup. As noted with Hopkins, Savage has yet to throw a touchdown on 102 career pass attempts, while Watson was throwing one every 10.7 pass attempts. Your sell-high window may have closed.
TEs
Jack Doyle: Despite missing a game to a concussion, Doyle ranks fourth among tight ends in targets this year. As I’ve said for the last few years, chase targets to tight ends, not much else. He’s now seen a ridiculous 32 targets over the last three games, turning them into 25 catches for 215 yards and two touchdowns. Apparently, he and Brissett have developed a chemistry over the weeks, making him a top-12 option going forward. The Texans have now allowed three top-five performances to tight ends over their last five games, making Doyle a fine play this week, though his upside is limited if we’re expecting Hilton to blow up. There are still just a handful of tight ends I’d rather play than Doyle this week.
Ryan Griffin: There simply hasn’t room for a tight end to get targeted heavily when Watson was throwing the ball an average of roughly 30 times per game, so knowing that Griffin is just a backup level talent, he shouldn’t be considered in fantasy leagues. Now that Savage is under center, you can all but erase Griffin from your memory. Even against the Browns with Watson under center, Griffin left the game with just 7.2 standard points on eight targets.
