“There’s no such thing as a sure thing.” That’s how the old saying goes, and it’s been clung to for so long because it’s true. The numbers suggest the same sentiment, as well, as the success rate for first round hovers just above 50% (depending on your parameters for “success”).
That uncertainty is due to a combination of things — the two most obvious being an ever-growing chasm between college and the pros and poor scouting/draft tactics being implemented by a league that seems overrun by groupthink — however, the uncertainty of the draft remains the only bankable aspect of its nature. Despite this, it’s important to still look for the prospects that provide more safety than their peers. In 2018, five players share a distinction of being the safest picks in this year’s draft class.
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Quenton Nelson (OG – Notre Dame)
At 6’5,” 329 lbs, Nelson is an absolute beast. In this cycle of pre-draft hype, he’s been heralded as a potential “Once-in-a-Lifetime Talent.” The lack only thing standing between him and the guarantee of being a top-five draft pick is the perceived value of an interior offensive lineman. Unlike offensive tackles, guards, and centers aren’t the cornerstones of solid pass defense, and in today’s NFL, that is the premium position. Nelson projects as a plug-and-play prospect on the offensive line and could easily be an anchor for whichever team uses their first-rounder on his generational talent.
Saquon Barkley (RB – Penn State)
Naysayers of Barkley’s game have been vocal over this past year, and not without ammunition for their campaign. His playing style in college was predicated on the gap in elusiveness between he and the 11 guys lined up against him. That gap won’t be as big, in the NFL, as those defenses are bigger, faster, stronger, and agiler than those in college.
That being said, Saquon Barkley is an unprecedented athlete at his position. The team that drafts Barkley gets an elusive, hard-working RB (who will look to bring more physicality into his game than was utilized at Penn State) but they also get a back that will have a tremendous impact on their passing game. Barkley’s receiving ability (both out of the backfield and on the outside) gives him added opportunities to get the ball in space and utilize his tremendous play-making ability.
His ceiling is that of Barry Sanders and Bo Jackson, and his floor isn’t too bad either — that’s why he’s being touted as the best player overall. Like Nelson, his positional value is the only reason he’ll drop in this draft.
Derwin James (S – Florida State)
Florida State’s hybrid safety fits that rare combination of size, speed, and explosiveness that looks to project as a tremendous difference maker for whichever defense he is added to. Like Barkley, James’ versatility is why he projects as such a safe pick: he has multiple ways to win at the next level. His ability as a multi-dimensional safety allows defenses to use him as an additional linebacker in the box and at the line while still having the ability to drop into coverage and be an asset to the pass defense. James’ game has been causing buzz out of Tallahassee for over a year now, and his arrival in the league (along with an exceptionally strong safety class) is likely impacting the lack of urgency in the positions’ free agency market.
Roquan Smith (LB – Georgia)
The linebacker position appears to be quite top-heavy this year. Three or four prospects have all had their moment being touted as the best of the group, but now that the buzz is starting to die down, Roquan Smith seems to have the top spot pretty firmly in hand. NFL Draft analyst, Daniel Jeremiah, likens Smith to Derrick Brooks, saying he makes sense in the top 10.
The competitive advantage Smith has to (perhaps) a more athletic options like Tremaine Edmunds is his football instinct. Smith fits the bill as a prototypical ILB who has a nose for the ball and a high motor– combining that with his skills at reading the offense and diagnosing the play, Smith should be set for success at the next level.
Derrius Guice (RB – LSU)
Yes, another RB makes the list of safest picks in this year’s NFL Draft. Part of assessing risk is also evaluating cost and landing spot for the prospect and with Guice likely going in the second half of Round One, his cost comes significantly cheaper than the other RB on this list. Unlike Barkley, Guice’s physicality was on full display throughout his college career, and that trait is one that should continue to help his stock in the NFL.
Since Guice’s game doesn’t rely as heavily on speed advantage as Barkley’s, there are some who consider him to be the safest RB in the draft. That, combined with the far lower cost makes it a very compelling argument (though there’s no doubt Barkley’s perceived ceiling is higher). Guice runs with purpose and has more ability to catch the ball out of the backfield than the public gives him credit for. After the excitement of QBs and the top 10, it will be exciting to see where Guice ends up and which team gets the consistency of this top prospect.
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The five prospects above will undoubtedly have an immediate impact on whichever teams call their name on Thursday night. They are the guys that should immediately cause an uptick in expectations for the teams that land them. Coming up tomorrow, we’ll take a look at the flipside of the coin and inspect the riskiest picks in this year’s draft — the guys that could make or break the tenure of their coaches and GMs.
Check out our consensus mock NFL Draft
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Ethan Sauers is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ethan, check out his archive and follow him @ethansauers.
