The problem the deeper you get into the season is that the amount of quality pitchers available to stream steadily declines. Early in the season, there were plenty of undrafted pitchers who could be had freely. That was partially because injuries hadn’t become a serious problem yet, but also because owners just weren’t aware of the level of pitchers that were out there. Even through May, though, there were many pitchers who were still flying under the radar-Sean Newcomb, Nick Pivetta, and Kyle Gibson were all players that were featured in this column during the month (and Pivetta are Gibson are still painfully underowned).
As we enter July, it’s evident that this is no longer the case. Sure, there are still some options, but they’re much more difficult to find, regardless of who they’re facing. Finding a quality pitcher against an inferior offense is now nearly an impossible task, so we take what we can get. That being said, there are still some gems to be had, and even at this point in the season, streaming is a viable option that can help you make up ground in your league.
To determine the pitchers eligible for consideration, I looked at players who were owned in less than 30 percent of ESPN leagues.
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Monday, July 2
Domingo German (NYY) vs. Atlanta Braves (29.1%)
Recommending someone with a 5.32 ERA against a division leader doesn’t look great on paper, but you’re smart enough to know that you have to look deeper than just those surface stats. German’s ERA might be above 5.00, but his FIP is 4.16 and his xFIP is 3.55, thanks mostly to an unsustainably low 63.1 percent strand rate. That’s low for an average pitcher, but for German, who strikes out over 27 percent of batters that he faces, the only explanation for that number is unfortunate sequencing and timing. That always works itself out in the end, so there’s no reason to worry on that front. And while the Braves may lead the division, they do most of their damage against lefties. Heading into Thursday, they had just a 96 wRC+ against righties.
Tuesday, July 3
Zach Eflin (PHI) vs. Baltimore Orioles (29.8%)
Another player who comes in just under the arbitrary threshold that we’ve set, Eflin has been tremendous throughout the month of June. In his five starts, he’s gone 30 2/3 innings, allowing just six runs while striking out 28 and walking six. That works out to a 1.76 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP, and while he’s obviously gotten a little fortunate over that stretch, his estimators are nothing to laugh at (2.06 FIP, 3.70 xFIP). Of course, he’s facing the Orioles, which means he’d be worth starting regardless of how hot or cold he was. They’ve been atrocious against righties all year, as their 83 wRC+ was tied for fifth lowest in the majors going into Thursday.
Wednesday, July 4
Zack Wheeler (NYM) @ Toronto Blue Jays (10.6%)
This was perhaps the hardest day to pick, but with the way Wheeler’s been pitching, I couldn’t bet against him. Over his past three starts, he’s averaged 6 2/3 innings while striking out more than a batter an inning and pitching to a 2.70 ERA. That’s actually been unlucky according to his FIP, which sits at 2.45 over that three-game stretch. His season line isn’t too bad either, especially when compared to the other eligible pitchers starting Wednesday. The matchup is decent-the Blue Jays had a 101 wRC+ against righties before Thursday’s games-but the bigger opportunity is for strikeouts, as they’ve struck out in 24 percent of their plate appearances against righties.
Thursday, July 5
Jeremy Hellickson (WSH) vs. Miami Marlins (16.8%)
Hellickson is coming off the disabled list tomorrow, so before you pick him up to start Thursday, you should definitely take a look to see how that outing went. He’d been pitching at an elite level before his injury, owning a 2.28 ERA and 3.28 FIP over his first nine starts of the season. Much of that was due to his improved control, as his 3.7 percent walk rate would be a career low if he can maintain it. Fortunately, his first week back won’t be too strenuous, as he’ll get to face the Marlins in his second start. You probably don’t need me to tell you, but the Marlins haven’t been good this year. Their 86 wRC+ against righties going into Thursday was seventh worst, while their 23.7 percent strikeout rate was 11th worst.
Friday, July 6
John Gant (STL) @ San Francisco Giants (1.7%)
I’m picking Gant here because I have to pick somebody, but you might be better off taking a day off of streaming. Gant’s numbers aren’t bad this year, but they’re not great either. His 3.48 ERA and 2.92 FIP inspire confidence, but his 4.08 xFIP does not, especially when his HR/FB rate this year is 74 percent lower than his career mark. That said, he shut down the Indians his last time out, even if he did walk more batters than he struck out. The good news for him is that the Giants, despite being average offensively against righties, struck out in 24 percent of their plate appearances entering Thursday.
Saturday, July 7
Vince Velasquez (PHI) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (27.2%)
Velasquez is another pitcher on this list whose peripherals look a lot better than his 4.69 ERA. In fact, his 3.66 xFIP is more than a point lower, while his 3.86 FIP isn’t far behind. Most of his bad luck can be blamed on his 67.2 percent strand rate, especially considering he’s striking out 28.5 percent of batters. He’s a prime bounce-back candidate, and a matchup against the Pirates might just get that going. Their 93 wRC+ against righties going into Thursday ranked 20th in the majors.
Sunday, July 8
Seth Lugo (NYM) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (16.4%)
It may be hard to believe because he’s a Met, but Lugo’s numbers are quite impressive. His 2.76 ERA is obviously not something he can keep up, but don’t expect it to regress too far, since he has a 3.37 FIP and 3.29 xFIP. While that’s somewhat due to him spending much of the season as a reliver, his numbers as a starter are only marginally less impressive compared to when he comes out of the bullpen. He may not go deep into games, but he can still rack up the strikeouts, especially against a team like the Rays, who had a 97 wRC+ and 22.7 percent strikeout rate against righties heading into Thursday’s games.
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Brian Reiff is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Brian, check out his archive and follow him @briansreiff.
