Skip to main content

20 Stats to Remember on Draft Day (Fantasy Football)

by Bobby Sylvester | @bobbyfantasypro | Featured Writer
Aug 21, 2018

Bobby believes Dak Prescott to be vastly underrated

Your draft is right around the corner, and while there is a place and a time for long-form articles, the demand for to-the-point articles is at a premium this time of year. That’s why today I am going to give you 20 quick-hitting stats to remember during your draft. It is worth mentioning that stats are sometimes deceptive and even intentionally misleading. That is not the case here, as these are the stats that most influenced my personal rankings. With that said, let’s get into the stats.

Combine rankings from 100+ experts into one consensus cheat sheet >>

1) Deshaun Watson is a bust
–If you (wisely) regress Watson’s unsustainable touchdown rate back to Tom Brady‘s career average (5.5%), he would have had 11 TDs and 8 INT, finishing as the QB7 over his limited sample size.

2) Keenan Allen has a huge ceiling
–In his final 7 games, Allen had 174 PPR points (24.9 per game!), which is more than Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper had all season.

3) Marshawn Lynch is better than you think
–In the second half of the season, Lynch was a top 12 RB, finishing with more points in that time than Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman and Jordan Howard.

4) Evan Engram was inefficient
–Engram was third among TEs in targets without Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley, but scored just 0.93 fantasy points per target which was less than half of O.J. Howard‘s 1.93.

5) Sony Michel has major upside
Over the last three seasons, New England has run the ball 73 times within the 5-yard line and 150 times within the 10. No other team is even close to those figures with #2 sitting at just 60 and 123 attempts respectively.

6) Keelan Cole can be special
–Cole didn’t start until Week 13, from which point he led the league with 475 receiving yards. Only DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill and Julio Jones had a five-week sample size with as many yards at any point in the season.

7) Andrew Luck is historically gifted
–The last time Luck was healthy, he scored 351.7 fantasy points in a season. Here is the list of QBs who have done that in NFL history: Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Newton, Steve Young, Marino, Culpepper, Luck

8) Todd Gurley is the clear #1
–The difference between Gurley’s 319.3 fantasy points and Le’Veon Bell‘s 256.6 is larger than the difference between Bell’s and RB8 last season. In fact, Gurley’s season was 2nd best this decade behind Chris Johnson in fantasy points per game.

9) Julio Jones doesn’t match the narrative
–Jones has played more games over the past three years than Antonio Brown and has the same number of single-digit fantasy points weeks in that time, finishing 0.5 PPR WR2, WR5 and WR4.

10) George Kittle could be a star
–In the five games Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers’ starter, his tight ends scored 59.2 fantasy league points. If extrapolated out to a full 16-game season, that comes to 189.4 points. Only three tight ends have ever scored that many points in a season.

11) Kelvin Benjamin is a safe WR3
–Only 6 receivers in NFL history had as many yards and touchdowns as Benjamin did during his first two seasons: Moss, Beckham, A.J. Green, Colston, Fitzgerald and Isaac Bruce.

12) Duke Johnson is a terrific value
–Mike Tagliere’s spectacular Boom Bust and Everything In Between series pointed out that Duke was an RB1 more often than Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard and LeSean McCoy and was an RB2 more often than Christian McCaffrey, Freeman and Howard. He is being drafted as the RB38.

13) Alvin Kamara has a limited ceiling
If you regress Kamara’s 6.6% TD-rate to Le’Veon Bell‘s career 2.7% mark, Kamara would have finished as the RB12 in fantasy points per game, just ahead of Chris Thompson, Carlos Hyde and Rex Burkhead.

14) Charles Clay is the last-resort TE
In the 8 games Clay was healthy, he received a 27% target share, topped only by DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown in that time. The number two tight end was all the way down at 24%.

15) Aaron Rodgers is worth the price
Rodgers has played at least 15 games 8 times in his career. In those 8 years, he has finished as a top 20 points above replacement level fantasy player 7 times. In fact, he has been top 12 in 6 of those seasons and top 5 in 3.

16) DST doesn’t matter
Ryan Melosi recently pointed out that of DSTs drafted top-five at the position over the past three seasons, only 20% have returned top-five value. In fact, 48% have finished outside the top 12 at the position while none have finished as the #1 DST.

17) Jamison Crowder will be a reception hog
While we are borrowing from friends who changed my mind, Mike Tagliere pointed out in his NextGenStats piece that Alex Smith threw into tight coverage an NFL-low 12.7% of the time and that Crowder is top-ten in the NFL at average separation with Josh Doctson in the bottom 10 out of over 90 receivers.

18) Alex Smith might be an MVP candidate
Since 1990, only 10 QBs have scored as many fantasy points as Smith with 505 or fewer passes: Rodgers, Brady, Peyton Manning, McNabb, Vick, Steve Young, Rich Gannon, Randall Cunningham and Cam Newton. If Washington lets him air it out finally, we could be looking at another 2002 Rich Gannon type season.

19) Larry Fitzgerald isn’t slowing down
Over the past three seasons, only Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins have more fantasy points than Fitzgerlad who now has three consecutive seasons with 107 over more receptions.

20) Dak Prescott is a steal
Going into Week 10, when Ezekiel Elliott began his suspension, Dak Prescott was third in football with 21.5 fantasy points per game. In the 23 games Dak and Zeke have been in the lineup together, no QB has outscored Prescott.

SubscribeiTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Bobby Sylvester is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Bobby, check out his archive and follow him @BobbyFantasyPro.

What's your take? Leave a comment

1Derrick Henry (TEN)RB
2Christian McCaffrey (CAR)RB
3Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)RB
4Nick Chubb (CLE)RB
5Leonard Fournette (JAC)RB
6Dalvin Cook (MIN)RB
7Aaron Jones (GB)RB
8Melvin Gordon (LAC)RB
9Alvin Kamara (NO)RB
10Saquon Barkley (NYG)RB
 View all Flex Rankings 
11Todd Gurley (LAR)RB
12Mark Ingram (BAL)RB
13Davante Adams (GB)WR
14Miles Sanders (PHI)RB
15Michael Thomas (NO)WR
16Mike Evans (TB)WR
17DeAndre Hopkins (HOU)WR
18Chris Carson (SEA)RB
19Tyreek Hill (KC)WR
20Chris Godwin (TB)WR
21Devonta Freeman (ATL)RB
22D.J. Moore (CAR)WR
23Phillip Lindsay (DEN)RB
24Julian Edelman (NE)WR
25Cooper Kupp (LAR)WR
26Joe Mixon (CIN)RB
27Julio Jones (ATL)WR
28Sony Michel (NE)RB
29Stefon Diggs (MIN)WR
30Devin Singletary (BUF)RB
1Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL)LF,CF
2Nolan Arenado (COL)3B
3Mookie Betts (BOS)CF,RF
4J.D. Martinez (BOS)LF,RF
5Trevor Story (COL)SS
6Justin Verlander (HOU)SP
7Cody Bellinger (LAD)1B,CF
8Trea Turner (WSH)SS
9Alex Bregman (HOU)3B,SS
10Jacob deGrom (NYM)SP
 View All Rankings 
11Max Scherzer (WSH)SP
12Francisco Lindor (CLE)SS
13Gerrit Cole (FA)SP
14Freddie Freeman (ATL)1B
15Javier Baez (CHC)2B,3B
16Charlie Blackmon (COL)CF
17Aaron Judge (NYY)RF,DH
18Juan Soto (WSH)LF
19Anthony Rendon (FA)3B
20Bryce Harper (PHI)CF,RF
21Jose Altuve (HOU)2B
22Xander Bogaerts (BOS)SS
23Starling Marte (PIT)CF
24Walker Buehler (LAD)SP
25Manny Machado (SD)3B,SS
26Anthony Rizzo (CHC)1B
27Kris Bryant (CHC)3B,RF
28Whit Merrifield (KC)1B,2B
29George Springer (HOU)CF,RF
30Paul Goldschmidt (STL)1B
1Anthony Davis (LAL)PF,C
2James Harden (HOU)PG,SG
3Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)SF,PF
4Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)C
5Kevin Durant (BKN)SF,PF
6LeBron James (LAL)SF,PF
7Stephen Curry (GSW)PG,SG
8Nikola Jokic (DEN)PF,C
9Damian Lillard (POR)PG
10Russell Westbrook (HOU)PG
 View All Rankings 
11Victor Oladipo (IND)PG,SG
12Paul George (LAC)SF,PF
13Joel Embiid (PHI)PF,C
14Kawhi Leonard (LAC)SG,SF
15Chris Paul (OKC)PG
16Jimmy Butler (MIA)SG,SF
17Kemba Walker (BOS)PG
18Ben Simmons (PHI)PG,SF
19Kyrie Irving (BKN)PG,SG
20Jrue Holiday (NOR)PG,SG
21Rudy Gobert (UTH)C
22Andre Drummond (DET)PF,C
23John Wall (WAS)PG
24Kyle Lowry (TOR)PG
25Donovan Mitchell (UTH)PG,SG
26Khris Middleton (MIL)SG,SF
27Bradley Beal (WAS)SG
28Kevin Love (CLE)PF,C
29Draymond Green (GSW)PF,C
30LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS)PF,C
Follow the Pros!

Follow us on Twitter @FantasyPros for exclusive advice and contests