Let’s dig into the Week 18 Statcast risers and fallers!
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If there was a most improved player award it would surely go to Yankees’ third baseman Gio Urshela this season. After slashing .225/.274/.315 with a 57 wRC+ in his previous career Urshela is up to .309/.354/.515 and a 126 wRC+ in 2019. Sometimes players burst out of nowhere due to short-term batted ball luck. But that isn’t the case with Urshela. While his BABIP is up to .336 on the season it is largely backed up by Statcast metrics that include a 90.4 mph EV and .407 xBACON. Urshela’s xBA tracks in at .303, right around his actual average, and ranks 10th in baseball among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. In addition, Urshela has put up 45 runs, 11 HR, and 49 RBIs in 297 plate appearances, figures that correspond to 90 / 20 / 100 over a full season. Despite this solid all-around production, Urshela is still only owned in 10 to 20% of fantasy leagues.
Don’t look now but after ranking as one of baseball’s worst hitters over a full year (.291 wOBA from 2018 ASG to 2019 ASG), Jose Ramirez is cresting at the right time. Over the last week, Ramirez smacked four home runs and three doubles for a 233 wRC+. Since the start of July Ramirez has nine of his 14 home runs on the season and is slashing .344/.364/.731. Based on the improved production it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ramirez finish the season with 25 home runs to go along with 30 stolen bases (22 currently). Although his ratio stats will still leave a lot to be desired, Ramirez’s turn around is vindicating the fantasy owners that stuck with him through an abysmal stretch to start the year.
Paul Goldschmidt is another player that suffered through a rough patch to in the first half of 2019. Through the end of June Goldschmidt had 14 home runs and a moribund .741 OPS. Over the last month, he’s increased those marks to 24 and .803, respectively. Last week was a particularly productive one for Goldschmidt, who hit six home runs and drove in 13 runs. The recent run-up in box score stats is backed by Statcast readings that are trending closer and closer to his career averages. Goldschmidt’s average EV of 90.0 mph and hard-hit rate of 42.1% are only a tick below last year’s levels. Don’t be surprised if Goldy continues to mash and has a monster second half.
Justin Smoak keeps hanging around the hoop as one of Statcast’s most impressive performers in 2019. His .388 xwOBA on the year ranks 16th among batters with at least 250 plate appearances, ahead of names like Josh Bell, Anthony Rizzo, and Juan Soto. Unfortunately, Smoak’s .342 wOBA trails expectations by over 45 points and has resulted in an unsightly .215/.357/.427 batting line. One of the reasons Smoak’s actual production trails his xStats is an inclination to hit batted balls to the deepest parts of the ballpark in center, as Ben Palmer at Pitcher List noted in early July. Since xStats make no adjustment for batted ball direction, a player like Smoak will consistently underperform. However, a 45 point wOBA-xwOBA differential reeks of bad luck. I suspect Smoak will go on a tear at some point in the second half.
It’s been a rough go of it for AJ Pollock in 2019. After being sidelined for nearly three months with an elbow infection, Pollock has struggled since returning, slashing .214/.277/.405 since the All-Star break. Moreover, Pollock’s .298 xwOBA and 4.0% barrel rate on the year are both easily career worsts. Impressive rookie Alex Verdugo has fallen back into a part-time role with Pollock’s return, but one has to wonder how long the Dodgers will continue to suppress his at-bats for a struggling Pollock. He has the benefit of a big contract to guarantee his playing time for a little longer, but it’s difficult to see the upside that justifies a 70% fantasy ownership rate.
A frequent shower on the weekly xwOBA trailers list, Victor Robles presents a similar profile to Adalberto Mondesi. Both players possess poor traditional rate stats and xStats but get by popping the occasional home run and swiping a decent amount of bags. Sure enough, Robles’ 33 HR+SB on the year are very valuable. But his .244 AVG and .746 OPS are well below average for a fantasy regular. Robles’ 81.0 mph EV is the second-worst in baseball, below names like Delino DeShields and Jarrod Dyson, while his hard-hit rate of 24.2% is in 5th percentile. The window has likely past for dealing Robles for a large return in re-draft leagues, however, if someone is still willing to part with value for him don’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
It’s hard to believe that we’re almost in August and Mitch Garver still has an OPS over 1.000. Garver fans should savor this time while they can, however, as cracks are beginning to show in the hull. While Garver had a good month of July with seven home runs in 52 at-bats, his wOBA-xwOBA differential on the month was +.070 (.440 to .370). On the year he’s overperformed his xwOBA by +.057. It’s difficult to see that type of performance premium sustaining itself, so be wary of Garver fading down the stretch.
One of the more underreported breakouts in 2019 is the emergence of Mets utility man JD Davis. Tasked with playing all over the diamond due to the Mets’ fluid lineup, Davis owns an impressive .301/.365/.485 line on the year that is backed up by 90th+ percentile showings in exit velocity, xBA, and hard-hit rate. Due to New York’s glut of decent hitters, Davis has struggled to find himself everyday at-bats. However, with Dominic Smith now on the IL with a foot injury, Davis has a path to more playing time. Owners in deeper leagues should snag him for batting average and counting stat help.
Despite playing only three games last week after a recall from Triple-A, Willie Calhoun managed to hit six flies and liners for an impressive EV of 99.7 mph. With an advanced eye at the plate and fly-ball inclinations that will play well in a juiced-ball era MLB, Calhoun is a must-add for fantasy owners looking for breakout power potential in the second half. Although Texas’ roster is fairly crowded, Joey Gallo is out of the lineup for six weeks after fracturing his hamate bone. Calhoun is only owned in 5% of leagues so jump on him before your league mates do.
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Nicholas Gerli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nicholas, check out his archive and follow him @nickgerliPL.
