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Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Week 12

Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Week 12

By now, you’d think that fantasy owners would know what they have in their teams. It’s been nearly three months of football, and we have at our disposal plenty of data.

And yet even on the eve of the playoffs, fantasy owners are still wondering who they can and cannot trust. Here, as we do each week, we’ll examine some underperformers from this week and whether fantasy owners should be panicking about their play.

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Chris Carson (RB – SEA) – Panic Meter Rating: 5

If you did not watch Sunday’s game against the Eagles, you’d probably be mildly nervous if you saw the box score of the game. Carson had just eight carries for 26 yards (he added four catches for 31 yards), while Rashaad Penny had 14 carries for 129 yards and a touchdown. But, we’ve seen Penny outperform Carson on occasion, so fantasy owners could likely just write it off to “one of those days.”

The problem is that Carson, as his fantasy owners surely know, has had fumbling issues this year, and they reared their ugly heads this past week. In the fourth quarter, Carson opened a drive by fumbling on a carry, though he recovered the fumble. On the next play, Russell Wilson attempted to hand off to Carson again, only the running back clearly was not expecting the ball, and the Eagles recovered. Because Carson never controlled the ball, it was Wilson who was charged with the fumble. But it plainly falls on Carson.

Penny saw the vast majority of snaps after the turnover. And, given that he ran much better than Carson against a tough defense, there is reason to be concerned. But only to an extent. Not only is Pete Carroll perhaps the most loyal coach in the game, but Penny himself lost a critical fumble in the Seahawks’ previous game. The worry is not that Penny will usurp Carson, but rather that he has earned himself a bigger part of the running back pie. While that is likely true, Carson should continue to see enough touches to be worthy of being a clear-cut starter each and every week in a run-centric offense.

Kenny Golladay (WR – DET) – Panic Meter Rating: 7

Golladay was in this article last week and so you can read the reasons for concern there. But Golladay’s panic meter rating continues to rise this week for two reasons. First, recent reports suggest that Matthew Stafford is unlikely to return this season, confirming what many suspected. Without even the hope of Stafford at the helm, Golladay’s outlook continues to appear more and more bleak. Second, Golladay’s four-catch, 61-yard performance doesn’t sink your fantasy team but considering it came against hapless Washington, there’s every reason to expect worse against the Bears and Vikings next.

Golladay is still someone who you’re almost certainly starting each and every week. But he’s moved down from a WR1 to a WR2 and now just to a WR2/3.

David Montgomery (RB – CHI) – Panic Meter Rating: 9

I don’t know how many times Montgomery has appeared in this article over the course of the season. But I, like most of our FantasyPros’ crew, update my rest-of-season rankings each week on Monday or Tuesday. And each week, I can’t justify moving Montgomery outside of the RB2 range in half-PPR leagues. Because he dominates the backfield touches and gets the goal-line work and everyone in his range has warts.

But since Montgomery’s monstrous 135 rushing yards he put up against the Chargers, he has topped out at 60 rushing yards in a game and averaged more than 2.9 yards per carry once. And the thing is, he’s not exactly piling on the touches, either, seeing 17, 17, 15, and 15 over his last four games. When you’re running behind a sub-par offensive line in a poor offense, that isn’t worth much. Particularly when Tarik Cohen continues to siphon away touches.

There are going to be fantasy owners who need to continue to start Montgomery each week. But if you’re one of them, I’d suggest you desperately search for other options.

All Steelers other than James Conner – Panic Meter Rating: 10

As I said on the FantasyPros Football Podcast this week, when bringing in Devlin Hodges represents a massive upgrade in your offense, there is very little reason to consider starting anyone on that team in your fantasy league.

We’ve talked about JuJu Smith-Schuster (he was already at a 10), and you were probably never seriously considering starting Diontae Johnson or James Washington anyway. But certainly, while James Conner was out, Jaylen Samuels seemed like a potentially viable play. But no. Samuels received just five touches while Benny Snell toted the rock 21 times for 98 yards against the Bengals.

You may be thinking about starting Snell in Week 13 against the Browns if Conner is out. Don’t. The Steelers’ offense is broken, and even against the Bengals, absent one long catch-and run by Washington, it remained that way.

When Conner is healthy, he will dominate touches for the offense, and he is talented enough to make the most of it. Absent Conner, however, no matter how desperate, you should be avoiding all Steelers.

Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG) – Panic Meter Rating: 5

Barkley hasn’t looked himself since returning from his high-ankle sprain. He has yet to top 72 rushing yards or average more than four yards per carry in any of the five games since he recovered. To the extent you are hoping for the Barkley you drafted to magically show up at the close of the season, that is merely wishful thinking.

But what can you possibly do as a Barkley owner? He faces the Packers, Eagles, Dolphins, and Redskins to close out the season, and he can easily exploit three of those four matchups. And though his production has waned, his talent remains, he continues to be heavily involved in the passing game, and coming into Week 12, he was the No. 11 running back in half-PPR formats since his return.

You have a right to be worried about Barkley. But his production is steady enough where you should feel comfortable starting him as an RB1, keeping his panic meter rating relatively in check.

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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.

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