This is what we’ve been waiting for. On one side of the ball, we have a team in the 49ers that finished with just four wins in all of 2018, only to find themselves losing three games total in all of 2019 by a combined total of just 13 points! On the other side of the ball, the Kansas City Chiefs have lost just four games this year, none by more than seven points, and have arguably the best young QB in the league in Patrick Mahomes.

It’s not an easy game to wager on against the spread and arguments can be made for both the over and under of 54.5. With that in mind, we’ve gone ahead and asked our most accurate sports betting experts to give their take on this highly anticipated matchup. They’re also naming their favorite prop for this weekend so enjoy the game and good luck!

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Q1. Which team are you most confident in against the spread (Chiefs -1.5) and why?

“This game is expected to be extremely close and features two fantastic teams. There may not be much equity in betting a side in this year’s Super Bowl. With that said, if I had to make a pick, it would be the Niners. They are small dogs in this game despite possessing a dominant defensive line that finished second during the regular season in pressure rating. That could be the difference in a game that should be decided on the final possession.”
– Anthony Amico (DraftKings)

“The team I am most confident in ATS is the San Francisco 49ers. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is the most talented quarterback in the league. But I believe football games are won and lost in the trenches. On the offensive and defensive lines, the 49ers have a huge advantage. In addition, I have more faith in the 49ers defense getting stops than Kansas City’s.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“I’m picking the 49ers +1.5, although I don’t feel as good about the spread as I do the total. This is very likely going to be a close game (Mahomes has never lost by more than 7) and it should be high scoring as well (both teams have elite, offensive-minded head coaches). In that sort of game script, it’s likely going to come down to who has the ball last. My strategy when betting games like this is simple…if you truly believe the teams are evenly matched, take the points.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

“It’s not so easy picking against the spread in the final game of the year when the Patriots aren’t involved, but here we are. And if the quarterback for the 49ers was Tom Brady and not Jimmy G, that experience would probably be my tiebreaker. Both defenses have been playing well in the last month, and both coaches are some of the best in the NFL. So I’m using the much better QB as my tiebreaker and rolling with the Chiefs to win by a field goal.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“The NFL season ends very fittingly, with the game that has been the toughest for me to pick ALL YEAR long. I believe the Niners to be an extremely tough match-up for the Chiefs. A front four that can cause pressure and a running game that can keep the ball away from Mahomes. HOWEVER, I expect this game to be razor thin, and because of that, I’m rolling with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to outlast Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers.”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

“The spread seems to be just about right on the money so I actually won’t have any action on that part of the game. With that said, if pressed, I would take the Chiefs primarily because if it is a close game, you can bet your bottom dollar that Mahomes will find a way into scoring position in the final seconds. I don’t believe you can say the same about San Francisco if they need a score late, especially considering the way the Chiefs defense has been playing lately. In fact, they have 34 sacks over the last 10 weeks so essentially their pass rush is even better than San Francisco’s.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

View picks from the entire consensus for Super Bowl LIV

Q2. Which matchup are you most confident in picking the over/under (54.5) and why?

“The over has gotten a bunch of action the last couple of weeks, and it has resulted in being all the way up to 54.5 heading into the weekend. I still like the over. Patrick Mahomes has put on an absolute show this postseason, totaling over 600 passing yards with eight touchdowns in two games. While the Niners have done most of their damage on the ground, don’t sleep on Jimmy Garoppolo’s ability to post huge numbers as well. He has thrown three or more touchdowns four times this year, and could definitely spark a monster day for the Niners in a shootout.”
– Anthony Amico (DraftKings)

“I am more confident in picking the under. San Francisco’s defense was lights out when fully healthy this year. In addition, I have more faith than most that Kansas City’s defense can slow down the potent 49ers rushing attack. After all, they limited a red-hot Derrick Henry to 69 yards on 19 carries. The offense will pick up in the second half, but I expect a slow start as nerves will play in for all the inexperienced players on the big stage.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“I’m going against the public here because I like the under, and I really like how the total continues to climb. The 49ers defense has been lights out in the playoffs, and they seem content to run the ball…a lot. This could lead to fewer stopped clocks, and a couple of turnovers will help keep points off the board. Ultimately I think the Chiefs will still score enough, and my final score prediction is 27-24 Kansas City.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“I can’t even fathom picking the under in this game. It could certainly hit, but it’s the far less likely outcome. Both teams have clear areas they can attack on offense, and both offenses are skilled enough to quickly get back into the game if they fall behind. The Chiefs should be able to exploit the 49ers weakness defending passes following pre-snap motion, and the 49ers should steamroll the Chiefs defense with their own mixture of runs after motion, and their lethal play-action attack. I like the over so much that I’ve placed a bet on an alternate total of 64.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

“I’m all about the under in this game again. Yes, San Francisco’s defense slowed up at the end of the season but that was when they were missing a trio of dominant defenders. Now that they are healthy, we’ve seen them look much better again. Then you’ve got a Chiefs defense who has played out of their mind since their bye and may, in fact, be the single best unit in the league over the past three months. They can, of course, pile up points, but I’m not expecting 54+ as the most likely outcome.”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

“I know that the Over/Under is a high one, a tough one to stomach, and yet, I’m still picking the Over. I expect this game to be relentless from the very beginning. I’m expecting the offenses to outpace the defenses and the game to get increasingly high-scoring as we move along. I wouldn’t be surprised if BOTH teams put up 30 points!”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

Q3. Between the available game props and player props, which one are you most confident in and why?

“My favorite prop bet this weekend is Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 yards rushing. This is a plus-odds wager across all major books right now (+113) after Mahomes broke the 50-yard rushing mark in each of his past two games. The major difference in this matchup is that the 49ers are a primarily zone-coverage defense. This means their backs will face Mahomes less often, which should help avoid some big runs. The Niner defensive line is also fantastic and should be focusing on keeping Mahomes contained in the pocket before collapsing onto him. San Francisco has only allowed guys like Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray to run on them this year. Mahomes has only hit over 30 yards in five of 31 career starts in the regular season, and seven of 33 including playoffs.”
– Anthony Amico (DraftKings)

“The player prop I am most interested in is the over/under of the jersey number of the player who scores the first touchdown. The over 26.5 pays odds of +115, while the under 26.5 is -155. Though every Chiefs receiver and running back wears a jersey number lower than 26.5, give me the over at plus odds. I will take my shot that it is either Travis Kelce, or the plethora of 49ers options in Raheem Mostert, George Kittle, or Kendrick Bourne to name a few.”
– Mike Spector (BettingPros)

“Patrick Mahomes hasn’t thrown a pick in the playoffs, but he hasn’t had to play outside of Arrowhead yet either. Oh, and he hasn’t faced this 49er defense that has 3 interceptions in just two playoff games. While Mahomes only had 5 interceptions during the regular season, he did throw one in 3 of his last 5 contests. I think he’ll take enough shots downfield in this game, and over 0.5 interceptions is going to hit at +110.”
– Bart Wheeler (Hail to Fantasy Football)

“This comes down to either Mahomes over 23.5 completions, or Kelce over 5.5 receptions. I have a strong feeling that the Chiefs are going to throw the ball over 80% of the time…and while that won’t necessarily lead to 400 yards by Mahomes, it will lead to a lot of target opportunities for his weapons. Kelce has been over 5.5 receptions in 11/18 games this season, and if they end up going as pass-heavy as I think, he’ll make it his 12th game before halftime on Sunday.”
– Nick Zylak (Fantasy Football Advice)

“BettingPros is showing an option over on 888sport that is just too good to pass up. They are listing Damien Williams at +225 to lead the Super Bowl in rushing. And I get it, Raheem Mostert was awesome last game, but the 49ers typically use a split backfield while Williams is on the field over 95% of snaps since he took over as the starter. In that time, he has averaged 80.5 rushing yards in 6 starts. Not only that, but the Chiefs are the favorites so good luck if you are expecting 15 or more carries from Mostert. ”
– Bobby Sylvester (FantasyPros)

“The player props are most attractive to me at this point. I don’t fathom the Chiefs offense being able to establish the run with any sort of consistency in this game. I have the Chiefs winning and covering this game, and if this is the case, then Patrick Mahomes is going to have to carry the offense! I’m expecting Mahomes to have to throw the ball 45+ times, and if this is also the case, then the OVER on 23.5 completions for the 2019 NFL MVP is my most confident call.”
– Matt MacCoy (The Next Big Thing)

View full set of consensus Over/Under picks here

Thank you to the experts for taking the time to provide their picks and analysis. Please give them a follow on Twitter for more thoughts on these two remaining teams.

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