The term “sleeper” leaves a lot of room for interpretation in fantasy circles. Some analysts are firm that it only applies to players taken after a certain pick or after a certain round. But if the term simply means a player that most people are “sleeping on,” and that it should apply to any player who is widely undervalued and under-appreciated, whether it’s a second-round pick that should be going in the first or an undrafted player who should be rostered in all leagues.
The name of the game is to find value at all stages of your draft. So I figure the best way to help you do that is to identify some early-round sleepers, some mid-round sleepers, and yes, some late-round sleepers. As you’ll see, this list largely consists of unsexy veterans, unproven young players, and guys who have taken an unorthodox route to fantasy value.
I’m an old school proponent of standard scoring, but I know lots of people prefer PPR these days, so we’ll split the difference and use FantasyPros’ Average Draft Position (ADP) in 0.5 point PPR. If you think I’m missing someone obvious or are worried that one of these sleepers might never wake up, I’m all ears on Twitter @andrew_seifter.
Check out our consensus ADP to identify values across the most popular league hosts 
Early-Round Sleepers
Chris Carson (SEA) ADP: 34
Carson seems to make my underrated list every year, and with good reason. He wasn’t an early-round draft pick, but all he does is produce when he’s on the field, and Seahawks coach Pete Carroll has shown unwavering faith in him. Last year, Carson finished as the RB11 in 0.5 PPR formats, and he has even more job security than usual now that Rashaad Penny (ACL) is expected to miss at least the first six games while beginning the season on the PUP list.
Carson appears to be fully recovered from last December’s hip fracture, and while the Seahawks brought in Carlos Hyde as insurance, he won’t threaten Carson’s lead back role at this stage of his career.
James Conner (PIT) ADP: 42
Conner had a thoroughly disappointing 2019 season, but many fantasy drafters seem to be forgetting that he still managed to provide low-end RB1 value before suffering a shoulder injury in Week 8. That wasn’t too far off from his terrific 2018 season when he finished as the RB6. It remains to be seen how well Ben Roethlisberger bounces back from elbow surgery, but he should at least be able to keep defenses more honest than Mason Rudolph or Duck Hodges ever could. That means more running lanes — and potentially many more scoring opportunities — for Conner.
Coming off a lost season, Conner’s ability to stay healthy is obviously a question mark, but that risk is more than accounted for in his ADP. He’s an excellent value as a clear starting running back with RB1 upside, and he’s going outside of the top-40 picks.
Mark Ingram (BAL) ADP: 46
Ingram is another starting running back with RB1 upside who is going outside of the top-40 selections. In fact, he was the RB8 just last year. Yes, the Ravens spent a second-round pick on a highly talented back in J.K. Dobbins, but that move is likely more about 2021, when the then-31-year-old Ingram will be entering the final year of his contract and could be cut. For now, there is little reason for Baltimore to mess with what works, and that means riding Ingram, who paired with Lamar Jackson last year to provide easily the best rushing attack in the NFL.
D’Andre Swift (DET) ADP: 65
If you ask me, Swift has a similar appeal to the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, who is (deservedly) going around pick 40. Swift is a special talent who was widely expected to be the top fantasy back in the 2020 class if he ended up in the right landing spot. Detroit isn’t exactly “the right landing spot,” but he still seems like an exceptional value in the sixth round of 12-team leagues.
Incumbent starter Kerryon Johnson isn’t going to just disappear, so it’s wise to expect Swift and Johnson to operate in a near-even timeshare, at least initially. But Swift is fully capable of producing RB3/flex value in that role, and he also stands a good chance of gradually taking a bigger and bigger piece of the committee as the season moves along. Add in the fact that Johnson has failed to make it through more than 10 games in either of his first two seasons, and it’s easy to see a scenario where Swift rockets all the way up to top-15 RB value.
Kareem Hunt (CLE) ADP: 72
Hunt is a great example of the extreme discount you can get on running backs who are seen as the “backup.” For the Browns, Hunt is so much more than that. From the time he was activated midway through the 2019 season, he took on an integral passing game role, which led to him outscoring Nick Chubb down the stretch in full PPR formats. Chubb was still the marginally better fantasy asset in 0.5 PPR, but Hunt returned solid flex value in those leagues as well. With Kevin Stefanski now calling the shots in Cleveland, the Browns are expected to lean even more heavily on their running backs this year. That should allow Hunt to once again be in the flex conversation every single week. And should Chubb suffer an unfortunate injury, Hunt proved during his Kansas City days that he can deliver elite RB1 value if given the chance.
Mid-Round Sleepers
Zack Moss (BUF) ADP: 137
Moss may not be as talented as fellow rookies Jonathan Taylor and D’Andre Swift, or as likely to quickly steal away lead back duties, but Moss presents tremendous upside at the cost it will take to acquire his services. The third-round pick out of Utah joins a top-eight rushing offense from 2019, and he should see plenty of favorable game scripts on a Bills team that projects to often play with the lead. Devin Singletary, a third-round choice himself, is coming off a solid-but-unspectacular rookie season that likely won’t give him a major edge in playing time over Moss.
Moss might only provide fringe RB3/flex value initially, but he doesn’t necessarily need a Singletary injury to eventually ascend to RB2 value; he could simply outperform him. It won’t cost much at all to find out.
Adrian Peterson (WAS) ADP: 145
Once the best player in fantasy football, AP is now the epitome of a boring veteran option who can still help your team win. The 35-year old has finished as the RB18 (2018) and RB30 (2019) during his first two seasons in Washington, and he missed just one game in the process. It would be unwise to expect a major drop off in his workload this year, especially with Derrius Guice no longer part of the equation. Antonio Gibson is an exciting prospect for dynasty leagues, but he appears to be behind Bryce Love on the depth chart and will likely be used in a limited number of designed rushing and receiving plays, at least initially. Love is shaping up as the better pure handcuff to AP, and he has a fair amount of sleeper value of his own at ADP 322.
But at the end of the day, Ron Rivera is an old school coach who wants to play a “physical” style, and that means plenty of AP again in 2020.
Chase Edmonds (ARI) ADP: 174
Edmonds demonstrated just how much upside he has when he torched the Giants for 148 yards and three scores last October. Unfortunately, he suffered a hamstring injury the very next week, and then the Cardinals went out and acquired Kenyan Drake, who provided high-end RB1 value in the season’s second half. Drake will begin the year as Arizona’s unquestioned starter, and his upside in that role is obvious, but this is still a player who has failed to rush for more than 650 yards in any of his first five seasons in the league.
Meanwhile, Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury believes Edmonds will eventually be a “starting running back in this league.” Edmonds is one of the most desirable backup running backs in fantasy leagues as a potential league-winning handcuff, and he also has an outside chance to outperform Drake and earn more playing time as the season progresses.
Boston Scott (PHI) ADP: 179
I’m as excited about Miles Sanders as the next guy, but let’s not forget that Sanders is currently “week-to-week” with a lower-body injury. The Eagles sound optimistic that he will be ready for Week 1, but even so, he’s yet to prove that he can carry the load for an NFL team through an entire season. That gives Scott some very intriguing handcuff appeal.
Scott could also have some flex value even when Sanders is healthy and active, especially in PPR formats. Scott was targeted at least six times in each of the Eagles’ last four regular-season games of 2019, and coach Doug Pederson wants to get him even more involved in the passing game this year.
Late-Round Sleepers
Justin Jackson (LAC) ADP: 194 and Joshua Kelley (LAC) ADP: 245
I am fairly skeptical that Austin Ekeler can come close to repeating his 2019 season, especially now that check-down machine Philip Rivers is no longer under center and the Chargers project to be involved in a lot of low-scoring, grind-it-out type of games. Yes, I’ve seen the infamous workout photo, but it’s going to take more than a photo to convince me that Ekeler can suddenly be a bell-cow back after never handling more than 132 carries in any of his first three NFL seasons.
Enter Justin Jackson, who has averaged over five yards per carry in limited duty to begin his career, and Joshua Kelley, a fourth-round pick who brings a physical presence to the backfield. It is hard to say whether Jackson or Kelley will be the primary beneficiary of all the early-down, between-the-tackles work that Melvin Gordon is leaving behind, but the good news is that they’re both so cheap at draft tables that you can afford to hedge your bets and draft them both.
Damien Harris (NE) ADP: 203
The first rule of fantasy football is to never trust Patriots running backs, but that rule sort of goes out the window when you can potentially acquire the team’s starter after pick 200. Harris, a 2019 third-round pick, has been earning rave reviews in camp while veterans Sony Michel (foot) and Lamar Miller (knee) have nursed injuries.
With Tom Brady in “Tompa” and Cam Newton now under center, the Patriots will likely go with a run-heavy approach, particularly given the uncertain state of their receiver corps. While Newton may not run the ball himself as much as he used to, he at least provides the threat to do so, which typically helps open up lanes for running backs. Harris handled a grand total of six touches in his rookie season, so it’s impossible to know how good he can be, but he is shaping up as an intriguing lottery ticket given the bargain-bin price.
Ryquell Armstead (JAC) ADP: 224
There are several obvious red flags when it comes to Jaguars starter Leonard Fournette, and these make Armstead a must-have handcuff in fantasy leagues. It starts with Fournette’s checkered injury history. He managed to play 15 games last year, but overall he has missed 12 of the Jaguars’ 48 games (25 percent) since he joined the team in 2017. Then there’s the fact that the team has openly attempted to trade him — trade talks that continue to this day and could still see him moved before Week 1. Finally, there’s his lack of productivity even when healthy. Fournette averaged a career-best 4.3 yards per carry last season, but that was still outside the top-25 running backs in the league.
Simply put, the Jaguars appear ready to move on from Fournette, and that should create a big opportunity for Armstead — as long as he can make up for the lost time he spent this summer on the reserve/Covid-19 list.
Dion Lewis (NYG) ADP: 267
It’s no surprise that Lewis is being avoided in fantasy drafts. At 29, he’s old for a running back, and he’s playing behind one of the premier talents at the position in Saquon Barkley. This is obviously not a situation where the backup is going to supersede the starter. But Barkley is an injury risk, and Lewis has proven throughout his career that he can produce as both a rusher and receiver when given the opportunity.
Lewis has a good relationship with Giants coach Joe Judge from their days together in New England, so perhaps he’ll be able to carve out more of a role than just a strict backup. But even if he doesn’t, his proven ability, versatility, and solidified spot behind Barkley on the depth chart make Lewis a handcuff to target in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
2020 Draft Kit: View printable cheat sheets, sleepers & mistakes to avoid
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
