Ladies and gentlemen, football is finally back! We have a healthy slate of Sunday games ahead of us, and I’ve identified six value plays for your DraftKings lineups.
If you want to fire up some studs, you’ll have to find cheaper options somewhere who can return value. By “value,” I mean a player who offers some upside but won’t bust for zero points. To hit value, a player should get between three and four times their salary in fantasy points. I’ll look at quarterbacks under $6K, running backs and wide receivers under $5.5K, and tight ends under $4.5K.
Check back next week for another slate of picks — and for my results from Week 1!
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Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor (LAC): $5,600 at CIN
Taylor combines a stable rushing floor with a high-level passing upside. If you’ve written Taylor off as a game manager, you just aren’t paying attention — his deep ball carried the Bills in 2015, and he has reportedly kept it up in camp. That’s great news for Keenan Allen, who ranked 11th in overall air yards last season, and for Mike Williams, who ranked eighth. Expect Taylor to connect on one or two deep throws to them against cornerbacks William Jackson III, Mackensie Alexander, and Trae Waynes, none of whom earned PPF grades above 70.
Honorable mention: Derek Carr (LV): $5,900 at CAR
Running Backs
Sony Michel (NE): $4,600 vs. MIA
Michel isn’t the most exciting DFS pick ever, but he should see more than enough work to return value. He earned 247 carries last season, the tenth-most in the league, and he won’t have to worry about either Damien Harris or Lamar Miller in Week 1. Although DraftKings’ PPR format caps his upside more than I’d like, Michel scored 13.3 and 13.4 DK points against the Dolphins last year. At this salary, his average result of 13.35 points would just miss value at a 2.9x return on his salary. But Michel should’ve scored more touchdowns last year, so I’ll roll the dice for some positive regression to push him over the top.
Chris Thompson (JAC): $4,000 vs. IND
Oh, boy. The two relevant Jacksonville running backs, Thompson and James Robinson, are both priced at the minimum. While other users may opt to roll with the starter, Robinson, Thompson offers much better value than him. That’s because DraftKings’ PPR format rewards the pass-catching back. In Washington, he was averaging seven targets, five receptions, and just over 50 receiving yards per game last year until Jay Gruden’s firing. That usage is good enough for 10 DK points per game, and it doesn’t include any potential rushing attempts or touchdowns. Since the Jaguars should have to play from behind here, expect Thompson to get plenty of garbage-time dump-offs.
Honorable mention: Antonio Gibson (WAS): $4,000 vs. PHI
Wide Receivers
Jamison Crowder (NYJ): $5,200 at BUF
Crowder popped off against the Bills last season. He scored 24.3 DK points against them in Week 1, and he posted 20.6 DK points in Week 17. He averaged an impressive 13.5 targets per game in those two appearances. Crowder does have some new competition, however. New York replaced Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa with Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims in the offseason, Chris Herndon is finally healthy, and Adam Gase wants to use Le’Veon Bell as a receiver. But even if Crowder sees fewer targets as a result of these changes, he could miss his average against Buffalo (22.45) by five points and still hit his minimum threshold for value (15.6). He’s an easy pick for Sunday.
DeSean Jackson (PHI): $4,900 at WAS
Jackson has now scored 30-plus DK points in back-to-back Week 1 appearances. That’s seriously impressive, and he could keep that streak alive on Sunday. Jackson posted 38.4 points against the Washington Football Team in Week 1 last year, and I have no little faith in either Kendall Fuller or Ronald Darby to do a better job against DJax than Quinton Dunbar did last year. The Eagles’ injured receiving corps (and running back, too, apparently — Miles Sanders might be on a snap count) means that Jackson should see plenty of targets. He may not return 7.83x his price like he did last year, but he’s still a good bet for Week 1.
Honorable mention: Bryan Edwards (LV): $4,200 at CAR
Tight End
Hayden Hurst (ATL): $4,500 vs. SEA
This is a good week to pay up for George Kittle, as he takes on the Cardinals’ atrocious tight end defense in Week 1. But if you’re going to pass on him, someone like Hayden Hurst could be worth a dart throw. Austin Hooper scored 18.5 DK points for the Falcons against Seattle last season. He caught six of seven targets for 65 yards and a score in the loss, and if Hurst is used in a similar capacity, look for him to score those points instead — that’s a 4.1x his price. To be fair, however, Seattle bolstered their secondary by acquiring Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs, so he’s a riskier play than Hooper’s stat line suggests. Pivoting to Kittle or Goedert if the prospect of another Legion of Boom scares you off.
Honorable mention: Dallas Goedert (PHI): $4,100 at WAS
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Isaiah Sirois is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Isaiah, check out his archive and follow him @is_sirois.
