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Target Analysis: Week 4 (2020 Fantasy Football)

Oct 7, 2020

We’ve seen it time and time again. Volume is the clearest indicator of fantasy success, as it’s rare for a player to be a fantasy football stud without the opportunity to convert touches into points. Pass-catching opportunities, especially in PPR leagues, are often a bigger determinant of fantasy success than the talent of a player or his circumstances.

So, every week of this fantasy season, I am going to diagnose the target landscape in the NFL. Who’s seeing the highest share on a team? Who’s trending downward? And most importantly, what takeaways can we draw from this data to ultimately help you make better fantasy lineup and roster decisions?

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Here is your Week 4 Target Analysis:

Arizona Cardinals

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
DeAndre Hopkins 9 30 10.00 46 11.50 ⬇️
Chase Edmonds 6 12 4.00 17 4.25 ⬆️
Christian Kirk 5 9 3.00 14 4.67 ⬆️
Dan Arnold 4 10 3.33 12 3.00 ⬆️
Andy Isabella 3 9 3.00 9 2.25 ⬇️
Larry Fitzgerald 3 13 4.33 18 4.50

This was a very uncharacteristic game for the Arizona Cardinals, who struggled in an early start on the East Coast. DeAndre Hopkins tied his season-low in targets, which is amazing considering that’s still nine of them. Hopkins’ target share in this offense has been such a nice surprise, as many in the fantasy community assumed it couldn’t possibly remain as high given the spread system that Kliff Kingsbury runs. He’s on pace for 184 targets! Edmonds has clearly become the receiving back in this offense, seeing six targets on the day compared to Kenyan Drake’s zero targets; Edmonds has 17 targets on the year, while Drake only has five. Christian Kirk returned from injury
and caught three of his five targets for 19 yards and a touchdown.

I’ve pretty much said it in every edition of this target series, but it bears repeating: DeAndre Hopkins is a fantasy WR1 and may finish as the overall WR1 on the season. I know his age may scare some people off in dynasty, but he still has many great years ahead of him with Kyler Murray. Kenyan Drake’s upside is completely capped from a receiving standpoint,  and he may be a fantasy bust given his rushing performance has been subpar. Edmonds presents some FLEX value given his pass-catching prowess, but I’d be more interested in acquiring him as the possible successor to Drake. I would not be surprised if lead duties were given to Edmonds at some point this season.

Atlanta Falcons

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Olamide Zaccheaus 9 16 5.33 16 4.00 ⬆️
Hayden Hurst 6 17 5.67 22 5.50 ⬆️
Calvin Ridley 5 28 9.33 40 10.00 ⬇️
Christian Blake 5 5 1.67 5 1.25 ⬆️
Julio Jones 4 8 2.67 20 6.67 ⬆️
Russell Gage 3 15 5.00 27 6.75


What if I told you Olamide Zaccheaus and Christian Blake would collectively out-target Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage? Not only did they do that, but they also had more combined receptions and yards than the titular trio. The Atlanta Falcons offense we saw last Monday night was an aberration, as Matt Ryan continually missed on throws to his prime targets and favored his ancillary depth players. The Falcons also attempted to play ball control against Green Bay and bleed the clock through the run game, which only served to give them less time to make a comeback. Overall, this is a game you are better off forgetting if you roster any Falcons.

Calvin Ridley was held to zero catches, Julio Jones left early with a hamstring, and Russell Gage was barely involved. All of these players should still be considered strong, worthwhile starts when healthy, but this game was a sucker punch to all of those who needed a solid performance on Monday Night to win their matchups. Don’t fade any Falcons receivers due to one bad game. This offense will continually need to make up for their atrocious defense, so expect a bounce-back for Ridley and Gage next week, while it is within the realm of possibility that Jones misses time with a hamstring issue.

Baltimore Ravens

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Marquise Brown 8 20 6.67 26 6.50 ⬆️
Miles Boykin 4 11 3.67 15 3.75 ⬆️
Mark Andrews 3 14 4.67 20 5.00 ⬇️
J.K. Dobbins 2 7 2.33 7 1.75 ⬇️
Devin Duvernay 2 6 2.00 7 1.75 ⬇️
Willie Snead V 2 6 2.00 10 2.50

Baltimore definitely bounced back from their underwhelming performance against Kansas City in Week 3, but it really didn’t come through the passing game. Lamar Jackson only threw for 193 yards, 86 of which were gained by Marquise Brown on four of his eight targets. Mark Andrews caught all three of his targets for 57 yards, but his fantasy relevance came from his two touchdowns. Aside from that, no other receiver on this team made a noticeable impact.

Mark Andrews continues to be very touchdown-dependent. He may be the No. 1 option in this Ravens passing game, but the volume just isn’t there to sustain his production without a weekly score. If I rostered him, I would be willing to explore a trade where you can either upgrade a different skill position or add a bit more to get more consistent producers like Travis Kelce or George Kittle. Marquise Brown has a solid 12.6-point performance in PPR leagues today, but 6.5 targets per game is not a recipe for fantasy success. He’s a deep play receiver that will make his fantasy day off of a long touchdown. Unless this offense changes drastically, he’s a boom-or-bust play each and every week.

Buffalo Bills

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Stefon Diggs 7 26 8.67 35 8.75 ⬆️
Devin Singletary 6 14 4.67 21 5.25 ⬆️
John Brown 5 13 4.33 23 5.75 ⬆️
Cole Beasley 4 17 5.67 24 6.00 ⬇️
Tyler Kroft 3 8 2.67 8 2.00 ⬇️
Dawson Knox 3 6 2.00 9 3.00 ⬆️

This Bills passing offense just keeps on cooking, as Josh Allen has developed into one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. He’s been able to support multiple fantasy receivers — Stefon Diggs caught six of his seven targets for 115 yards, John Brown caught four of his five targets for 42 yards, and Cole Beasley snagged three of his four targets for 32 yards and a touchdown. With Zack Moss out for a second straight week, Devin Singletary continued to show his chops as a workhorse back, catching five passes for 21 yards and adding 55 yards on the ground.

Stefon Diggs has made the case for being a fantasy WR1 this season. He’s one of the best route runners in the league and has developed an incredible rapport with Josh Allen. His 8.75 targets per game and deep-play ability give him a safe floor every week and offer top-ten upside. John Brown and Cole Beasley are FLEX options, but determining which one will have the better day is nearly impossible. Nonetheless, you can input them in your lineups in case of injuries to your other star players or if you play with more starting spots than the average league.

Carolina Panthers

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Robby Anderson 11 27 9.00 35 8.75 ⬆️
Mike Davis 6 23 7.67 23 5.75 ⬇️
D.J. Moore 6 23 7.67 32 8.00 ⬆️
Ian Thomas 5 7 2.33 9 2.25 ⬆️
Curtis Samuel 4 10 3.33 18 4.50
Reggie Bonnafon 2 2 0.67 2 0.50 ⬆️

Robby Anderson has officially become the WR1 in Carolina. He has out-targeted D.J. Moore over the course of the season, he has scored more fantasy points than D.J. Moore, and he is scoring more touchdowns than D.J. Moore. Anderson caught eight of his eleven targets for 99 yards, while Moore caught four of his six targets for 49 yards. Mike Davis continues to take on the workload of the injured Christian McCaffery, seeing 16 carries and six targets in this game while accumulating over 100 total yards.

I am not saying you should give up on Moore, as he’s still a talented young receiver adjusting to a new scheme and quarterback. Still, it’s worrisome that Moore hasn’t garnered a dominant target share and that Anderson has out-scored him over the course of the season. I wouldn’t buy or sell him; give it a week or two before making a final judgment. It’s hard to give up on a player who was regarded so highly this offseason, but we must examine the evidence we are given. The evidence points to Robby Anderson being the wideout you want in Carolina. Meanwhile, Davis’ pass-catching chops make him a viable FLEX candidate as long as McCaffery is sidelined.

Chicago Bears

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Allen Robinson 10 32 10.67 41 10.25 ⬇️
Darnell Mooney 9 17 5.67 20 5.00 ⬆️
David Montgomery 6 12 4.00 15 3.75 ⬆️
Jimmy Graham 5 16 5.33 23 5.75 ⬇️
Anthony Miller 5 13 4.33 19 4.75
Demetrius Harris 2 6 2.00 7 1.75 ⬇️

I don’t think that Nick Foles gave the offense the desired boost that Matt Nagy had intended. Foles threw 42 times for 249 yards, one touchdown, and one interception; however, much of his yardage came when the game was already out of reach. Allen Robinson continues to average over 10 targets per game despite how abysmal the quarterback situation appears to be; he’s the bright spot on an offense that has disappointed once again. Darnell Mooney has overtaken Anthony Miller as the WR2 in Chicago, and he’s averaging more targets per game over the course of the season and being more productive with his touches.

Allen Robinson is still the only wideout I would trust in Chicago. Despite the quarterback dysfunction surrounding him, he’s managed multiple WR1 performances, including this past week’s output of 24.1 PPR points. Darnell Mooney and Anthony Miller are extremely risky plays, and I wouldn’t blame you for leaving them on your waiver wire; there is simply not enough volume in this offense to support another receiver outside a touchdown or two going their way.

Cincinnati Bengals

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Tyler Boyd 8 29 9.67 34 8.50 ⬇️
Tee Higgins 7 22 7.33 22 5.50 ⬇️
Joe Mixon 6 13 4.33 15 3.75 ⬆️
A.J. Green 5 24 8.00 33 8.25 ⬇️
Drew Sample 5 15 5.00 16 4.00 ⬆️
Auden Tate 1 5 1.67 5 1.25 ⬇️

Is it safe to say you would rather have Tee Higgins over A.J. Green for the rest of the season? Over the past two games, Higgins has out-targeted Green 16 to 11, and he’s vastly outproduced Green in fantasy-wise. Many of us expected Higgins to take over for Green at some point, but a lot of that speculation was injury-based; Green is healthy and underperforming. While Higgins has outproduced Green of late, Tyler Boyd has become the WR1 in Cincinnati and the offense’s target leader. Boyd has averaged nearly 10 targets per game, and he should be locked and loaded in your starting lineup going forward.

You can’t start A.J. Green unless you’re desperate. You may not get much of anything for him, but he’s too unreliable to trust on a weekly basis. Meanwhile, Higgins provides interesting FLEX appeal as his role continues to grow each week. Joe Mixon finally became more involved in the passing game, catching all six of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. This was an extremely promising performance for those who roster Mixon, as he was entering bust territory heading into Week 4. Gio Bernard will still be an annoyance every now and again, but Cincinnati should see that Mixon is clearly the better pass-catcher.

Cleveland Browns

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Odell Beckham Jr. 8 20 6.67 30 7.50 ⬆️
Austin Hooper 7 15 5.00 17 4.25 ⬆️
Jarvis Landry 6 13 4.33 19 4.75 ⬆️
Harrison Bryant 4 8 2.67 10 2.50 ⬆️
Dontrell Hilliard 1 1 0.33 1 0.25 ⬆️
Kareem Hunt 0 5 1.67 11 2.75 ⬇️

This was Odell Beckham’s best game as a Cleveland Brown. Unfortunately, this performance seems to be the outlier in a sea of mediocrity. Beckham is extremely talented and has the capability to put up these types of performances every week; however, let’s take a look at the context of how he got there. First, he played against a defense that had given up 32 points per game before this contest. Second, Baker Mayfield only threw 30 times for 165 yards. A whopping 46% of Beckham’s receiving yards came on a pass from Jarvis Landry. Beckham also scored three touchdowns in this game, one of which was a 50-yard rushing score at the end of the game. Beckham’s 7.5 targets per game is underwhelming for someone of his talent. In this offense, his performance against the Cowboys may be the best we ever see from Beckham as a Brown.

Beckham is a low-end WR2. He simply doesn’t get enough volume to provide a decent floor. You are either hoping for a score or a deep play for him to provide relevance. In an offense that has such low passing volume, I’d highly recommend that you sell Beckham while the window is still open. Even though Austin Hooper and Jarvis Landry saw a decent amount of volume in this game, it’s not enough for me to consider them worthy holds.

Dallas Cowboys

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Amari Cooper 16 37 12.33 51 12.75 ⬆️
Ezekiel Elliot 8 27 9.00 31 7.75 ⬇️
Dalton Schultz 8 24 8.00 28 7.00 ⬆️
CeeDee Lamb 7 22 7.33 28 7.00 ⬆️
Cedrick Wilson 6 13 4.33 13 3.25 ⬇️
Michael Gallup 5 19 6.33 24 6.00 ⬇️

Dallas may not be winning games, but they sure are scoring a lot of points. Amari Cooper saw a season-high 16 targets in this matchup, catching 12 balls for 134 yards and a touchdown. Ezekiel Elliot also had a great day through the air, and he caught all eight of his targets for 71 yards. CeeDee Lamb continued his promising campaign by catching five of his seven targets for 79 yards and two touchdowns, while Gallup disappointed following his incredible Week 3 output against Seattle.

You can start all of Dallas’ pass-catching options with relative confidence. Amari Cooper is the clear WR1 in this offense and will continue to see a majority of the targets, but Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz are great ancillary pieces that will put up fantasy relevant days just due to the sheer volume in this offense. Dallas’ defense isn’t getting any better and there are more shootouts on the upcoming schedule. I would not be surprised if Cooper, Lamb, and Gallup all end the season as top-36 wide receivers.

Denver Broncos

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Tim Patrick 7 16 5.33 21 5.25 ⬆️
Noah Fant 6 21 7.00 27 6.75 ⬇️
Jerry Jeudy 4 20 6.67 28 7.00 ⬇️
Melvin Gordon 3 12 4.00 15 3.75 ⬇️
DaeSean Hamilton 3 6 2.00 9 2.25 ⬆️
Royce Freeman 2 4 1.33 5 1.25

Brett Rypien made his first start for the Denver Broncos, and for a while he looked to be a competent starter. He hit Jerry Jeudy on a deep 48-yard reception that went for a score and also hit Tim Patrick on a fade route for 40 yards late in the game. Tim Patrick and Noah Fant were by far his favorite targets, as each player saw at least six pass-catching opportunities and caught at least five passes. Jerry Jeudy and Melvin Gordon had less involvement than expected, with both players only making two catches on their limited targets. Nonetheless, their touchdowns saved their fantasy days for anyone who risked starting them. With K.J. Hamler and Noah Fant banged up, Jeudy and Gordon will likely see more opportunity going forward.

Noah Fant was only the pass-catcher on this team that you felt confident starting each and every week, but it sounds like he will miss some time with the injury he suffered last Thursday night. With Fant out, I believe Jerry Jeudy will take on a more significant role in this offense as the security blanket for whoever starts under center. Still, given his recent volatility, he is a risky FLEX option that you will likely need to start given the injury landscape around the NFL. Tim Patrick is worth a bench add and is a true desperation play, but his target share is encouraging enough to warrant a roster spot. Melvin Gordon will likely see an uptick in targets if Philip Lindsay remains inactive, increasing his upside as the workhorse running back in this offense.

Detroit Lions

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Kenny Golladay 8 15 5.00 15 7.50 ⬆️
T.J. Hockenson 4 15 5.00 20 5.00 ⬇️
D’Andre Swift 4 11 3.67 16 4.00 ⬆️
Danny Amendola 3 14 4.67 21 5.25 ⬇️
Jesse James 2 6 2.00 6 1.50 ⬇️
Marvin Jones 2 11 3.67 19 4.75 ⬇️

The Lions kept it close against the Saints last Sunday, and they even took an early 14-point lead. Unfortunately for them, they blew it and needed to play catch-up for most of the second half. Kenny Golladay led the Lions in targets on the day, seeing eight pass-catching opportunities and catching half of them for 62 yards and a touchdown. His counterpart, Marvin Jones, was nonexistent for most of the game, as he only caught one of his two targets for nine yards. Jones was considered the 1B receiver to Golladay’s 1A, so it’s disappointing for those who took a shot on Jones in the middle rounds to see that he’s only averaged 4.75 targets per game despite Golladay’s extended absence. Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson have both out-targeted Jones over the course of the season.

Golladay is the clear No. 1 wideout for Detroit and he should be a weekly start. Despite Detroit being a bad football team, the Stafford-Golladay connection will continue to thrive throughout the season and lead to high-end WR2 fantasy numbers for Golladay. Still, it looks as though this Lions offense is unable to support multiple fantasy weapons; Jones and Amendola will be risky starts going forward that are better left on the bench. Hockenson is a fine starter as your primary tight end, but he’s likely nothing more than a borderline TE1.

Green Bay Packers

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 8 19 6.33 25 6.25 ⬆️
Jamaal Williams 8 9 3.00 13 3.25 ⬆️
Robert Tonyan 6 14 4.67 14 3.50 ⬆️
Aaron Jones 5 17 5.67 23 5.75 ⬆️
Darrius Shepherd 3 4 1.33 4 1.00 ⬆️
Tyler Ervin 2 5 1.67 6 1.50


The Packers’ front office is laughing at all of us for saying that they should’ve drafted a wide receiver. Don’t get me wrong; they are succeeding despite not having a top wideout to replace Davante Adams. Just because Aaron Rodgers is moving the ball well without an elite option doesn’t mean they shouldn’t have added one. Nonetheless, Rodgers torched the Atlanta secondary on Monday Night by heavily targeting Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jamaal Williams. Both players saw eight targets apiece and were heavily involved from the get-go. However, the big story last night was the play of tight end Robert Tonyan, who scored three touchdowns en route to a 34-point PPR performance.

With the Packers headed into a bye week, we will have to wait and see whether Davante Adams returns to the starting lineup in Week 6. All indications point to a “yes,” as he was raring to go last week; however, Green Bay was wise to rest him as they easily handled Atlanta. If Adams returns, he and Aaron Jones are the only players I would consider starting. I believe Valdes-Scantling and Tonyan were more of a product of Adams’ target void then their own respective breakouts. Both players are certainly worth a hold, but I’d be cautious about re-inserting them into your starting lineup unless you are desperate.

Houston Texans

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Will Fuller 7 12 4.00 22 5.50 ⬆️
Randall Cobb 5 15 5.00 18 4.50 ⬆️
Kenny Stills 4 11 3.67 12 3.00
Brandin Cooks 3 16 5.33 21 5.25 ⬇️
Jordan Akins 3 13 4.33 15 3.75
David Johnson 3 10 3.33 14 3.50

The Texans had a fantastic matchup in Week 4 against a Vikings defense that had given up an average of 34 points per game heading into the matchup. After facing a gauntlet of Super Bowl contenders to start the season, this was supposed to be a bounce-back game for their offense. Aside from Will Fuller, who caught six of his seven targets for 108 yards and a touchdown, the Texans’ skill position players were downright terrible. Brandin Cooks went catchless on three targets, Randall Cobb only managed two receptions, and David Johnson was barely viable. No player other than Fuller caught more than three balls or surpassed 50 receiving yards. This is a game that Texans fans will want to forget.

With Bill O’Brien jettisoned from Houston this past Monday night, the Texans are at a crossroads. The offense will likely remain the same as interim head coach Romeo Crennel focuses more on the defense, meaning we aren’t likely to see better days ahead for the passing attack. Will Fuller is a solid WR2 if he can stay healthy, but he’s perpetually popping up on the injury report. He’s been remarkably consistent and shown the potential to provide a “boom” game, but you have to hope his hamstring holds up. Brandin Cooks, on the other hand, cannot be trusted. He may be averaging 5.25 targets per game, but he’s only had one game over 6 PPR points. He’s nothing more than a bench stash, and you can feel free to send him to the waiver wire.


Indianapolis Colts

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Zach Pascal 8 16 5.33 19 4.75 ⬆️
T.Y. Hilton 5 13 4.33 22 5.50 ⬆️
Trey Burton 5 5 1.67 5 5.00 ⬆️
Nyheim Hines 3 9 3.00 17 4.25 ⬇️
Mo Alie-Cox 2 11 3.67 13 3.25 ⬇️
Daurice Fountain 1 3 1.00 3 0.75 ⬇️

This was an ugly game to watch, as no pass-catcher on Indianapolis surpassed three catches or 60 receiving yards. Zach Pascal was the leading receiver on the day, catching three of his eight targets for 58 scoreless yards, while T.Y. Hilton put together another mediocre stat line. Despite his 22 targets on the season, Hilton is only averaging 3.25 catches and 40.5 yards per game; he’s been a major disappointment as Rivers just doesn’t have the arm strength to utilize his deep-threat capabilities. The tight ends saw more involvement in this game, but they weren’t too noticeable aside from Mo Alie-Cox’s touchdown in the first half.

I wouldn’t feel comfortable starting any Indianapolis pass-catching option unless the game script calls for a shootout. This Colts offense succeeds by running the ball and winning the time of possession battle. Their offensive viability has been greatly skewed by their previous opponents, as the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets are some of the worst defensive units in the NFL this season. Against a legitimate defense, the Colts fell flat from a fantasy perspective. You can keep Pascal, Hilton, and Hines on your bench, but pray that you aren’t compelled to start them anytime soon.

Jacksonville Jaguars

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
D.J. Chark 9 13 4.33 16 5.33 ⬆️
Laviska Shenault 6 16 5.33 20 5.00
Tyler Eifert 6 15 5.00 16 4.00 ⬆️
Keelan Cole 5 17 5.67 22 5.50
Chris Conley 4 19 6.33 20 5.00 ⬇️
James Robinson 4 14 4.67 15 3.75 ⬇️

Welcome back, D.J. Chark! After missing his Week 3 contest against the Miami Dolphins, Chark exploded in Week 4 with eight catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns. He was clearly Gardner Minshew’s favorite target and helped his struggling quarterback move the ball. Laviska Shenault has been a very consistent option all season, averaging five targets per game and getting work in the rushing attack as well. He put up his best performance of his young NFL career this past week, as he caught five passes for 86 yards and added five additional yards on the ground. Undrafted free agent James Robinson has secured the passing work in this offense, catching all four of his targets for 32 yards while Chris Thompson saw zero pass-catching opportunities. Robinson continues to be a league-winning pickup for those who recognized his potential early on.

D.J. Chark is a solid WR2 and should be played every week; he should have a relatively safe floor each week, especially since Jacksonville has a light schedule over their next few games. Shenault is FLEX-worthy and also has a safe floor given his usage in this offense; he’s a swiss-army knife that lines up all over the formation, so an 8-10 point PPR floor is a safe assumption. Robinson is showing RB1 potential as he continues to become the workhorse in this backfield; so long as Chris Thompson remains on the sideline during passing down, Robinson is a top-twelve option each week.

Kansas City Chiefs

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Sammy Watkins 7 18 6.00 27 6.75 ⬇️
Travis Kelce 6 27 9.00 33 8.25 ⬇️
Tyreek Hill 6 23 7.67 29 7.25
Mecole Hardman 4 13 4.33 14 3.50 ⬇️
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 3 17 5.67 19 4.75 ⬇️
Darrell Williams 1 4 1.33 6 1.50 ⬇️


Give credit to New England, they played Kansas City extremely well and held them to six points in the first half. Unfortunately for them, you can only keep Patrick Mahomes contained for so long. In what ended up being a 16-point victory, Mahomes targeted his top-five receivers relatively evenly. Sammy Watkins led the team with seven targets, converting half of them into receptions for 43 yards. Travis Kelce caught three of his six targets for 70 yards, with one of them being a 45-yard catch and run. Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire then split the load with six, four, and three targets respectively. Mahomes spread out the ball a lot in this game, leading to a high-floor game for each of the top options.

This story is the same every week. Hill, Kelce, and Edwards-Helaire are must-starts. Watkins and Hardman are currently the front-runners for being the fourth fantasy-relevant pass-catcher on this team, as Demarcus Robinson took himself out of the running with a zero-target performance. Watkins and Hardman are risky starts each week, but they both possess the upside to have a “boom” game on any occasion. If you need a “Hail Mary” to win your week, throw one of them in your lineup and hope for the best

Las Vegas Raiders

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Darren Waller 12 32 10.67 40 10.00 ⬆️
Hunter Renfrow 8 20 6.67 22 5.50 ⬇️
Zay Jones 6 10 3.33 10 2.50 ⬆️
Josh Jacobs 4 11 3.67 17 4.25
Nelson Agholor 4 8 2.67 9 2.25 ⬆️
Jalen Richard 4 7 2.33 8 2.00 ⬆️

With their top two wideouts sidelined, the targets predictably went to Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. Waller recovered from his abysmal Week 3 performance against New England by catching nine of his 12 targets for 88 yards; he was the clear first-read for Derek Carr throughout the contest. Hunter Renfrow didn’t quite live up to the standard he built in the prior week, but he still put up five catches and 57 yards on eight targets. Josh Jacobs is averaging 4.25 targets per game and is on pace for 68 targets on the season — that’s not too shabby for a player many expected to see few pass-catching opportunities with Jalen Richard and Devontae Booker in the backfield.

Until we see otherwise, this passing offense belongs Darren Waller and no one else. Hunter Renfrow might have a few usable games with Ruggs and Edwards out, and the two rookie receivers may put up a nice outing or two over the course of the season, but it won’t amount to much. Waller is the consistent factor in the Las Vegas offense and will be heavily relied upon for the rest of the season. He’s on pace for 160 targets! Keep Waller as your TE1 and don’t look back.

Los Angeles Chargers

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Keenan Allen 12 41 13.67 49 12.25 ⬇️
Hunter Henry 3 18 6.00 26 6.50 ⬇️
Joshua Kelley 3 8 2.67 8 2.00 ⬆️
Justin Jackson 2 2 0.67 2 0.50 ⬆️
Austin Ekeler 1 16 5.33 17 4.25 ⬇️
Jalen Guyton 1 6 2.00 7 1.75 ⬇️

Anthony Lynn may not think too highly of his rookie quarterback, but fantasy managers love him. Justin Herbert has brought fantasy relevance to a talented pass-catching corps that seemed dead in the water with Tyrod Taylor under center. Keenan Allen continues to accumulate targets, as he’s averaging 12.25 targets per game. Against an above-average Buccaneers defense, Allen caught 75% of his targets for 62 yards. Aside from Allen, the targets were spread pretty evenly this week. Hunter Henry only caught two of his three targets for 39 yards, while Joshua Kelley took over for an injured Austin Ekeler by catching all three of his targets for 26 yards.

Austin Ekeler’s injury is going to have serious ramifications to this offense, as he was a key contributor in the receiving game and a reliable check-down option for the rookie. I project Hunter Henry and Joshua Kelley for a nice uptick in targets in Ekeler’s absence. Kelley won’t become the workhorse runner in this backfield though, as Justin Jackson returned from injury last week and saw a sizable workload in Ekeler’s absence. I think Ekeler’s injury opens a window to sell Kelley while people still think he will get more work than he actually will.

Los Angeles Rams

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Cooper Kupp 7 23 7.67 28 7.00 ⬇️
Robert Woods 7 18 6.00 26 6.50 ⬆️
Malcolm Brown 6 8 2.67 12 3.00 ⬆️
Josh Reynolds 4 11 3.67 12 3.00 ⬇️
Tyler Higbee 4 11 3.67 15 3.75 ⬆️
Darrell Henderson 1 7 2.33 7 1.75 ⬇️

After putting up 32 points last week, the Rams’ offense was abysmal against the New York Giants. Cooper Kupp ended up catching five passes for 69 yards, but his stat-line is skewed by one breakaway touchdown catch that went for 55 yards. Robert Woods also disappointed, as he caught six of his seven targets for a measly 35 yards. He’s an amazingly consistent receiver that is a focal point in the Los Angeles offense, but he just couldn’t put up decent numbers with such a low average depth of target. Surprisingly, after putting up 120 total yards in his Week 3 contest, Darrell Henderson took a back seat to Malcolm Brown; Brown caught five of his six targets for 19 yards, while Henderson made one 16-yard catch.

All offenses have a down day, and this narrative fits the bill for Los Angeles. After traveling back and forth between coasts over the past two weeks, the Rams just looked out of sync and couldn’t string together a nice drive aside from one broken play. With solid matchups against Washington, Miami, and Seattle upcoming over the next five weeks, I expect all of these skill position players to experience better days. If this opens up a window in your league to buy Woods, Higbee, or Henderson for a reduced price, I would certainly take advantage.

Miami Dolphins

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
DeVante Parker 12 25 8.33 29 7.25 ⬆️
Isaiah Ford 10 21 7.00 26 6.50 ⬆️
Myles Gaskin 4 16 5.33 20 5.00 ⬇️
Jakeem Grant 4 6 2.00 9 2.25 ⬆️
Mike Gesicki 3 17 5.67 22 5.50
Preston Williams 3 10 3.33 17 4.25 ⬆️


So long as Ryan Fitzpatrick is the starter for the Miami Dolphins, you can rest assured there will be plenty of passing productivity in this offense. Against a leaky Seattle secondary that allowed at least 25 points in each of their three games entering Week 4, the Miami pass-catchers were due for a solid day. DeVante Parker caught 10 of his 12 targets for 110 yards last Sunday, finishing as the WR12 on the week. Isaiah Ford continues his impressive 2020 campaign by becoming the second-highest targeted player on the Dolphins. He may have only caught four catches for 48 yards, but his involvement through four weeks has made him extremely relevant as a spot-start. Meanwhile, incumbent WR2 Preston Williams disappointed in what was supposed to be a great matchup, only catching one of his three targets for 15 yards.

Fitzpatrick won’t always have great passing numbers, as seen in his matchups versus New England and Seattle this season. That said, his 35.5 pass attempts per game will continually allow Dolphins pass-catchers to thrive purely due to volume. Parker should be started every week while Fitzpatrick is the starter; he may not have the consistency that he maintained last season, but he will continually see deep targets and red zone opportunities from a quarterback who throws the ball with reckless abandon. Meanwhile, Preston Williams hasn’t had such luck. He’s been a major disappointment since Week 1 and should be relegated to the bench until we can see him overtake Isaiah Ford as the No. 2 wide receiver.

Minnesota Vikings

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Adam Thielen 10 23 7.67 31 7.75 ⬆️
Justin Jefferson 5 17 5.67 20 5.00 ⬇️
Dalvin Cook 2 9 3.00 11 2.75 ⬇️
Kyle Rudolph 2 6 2.00 8 2.00 ⬇️
C.J. Ham 1 3 1.00 3 0.75 ⬇️
Irv Smith Jr 1 5 1.67 6 1.50 ⬆️


Over the past two weeks the Vikings finally put their offense together. After scoring 30 points in a losing effort versus the Titans in Week 3, the Vikings topped 30 points once again in a win over the now GM-less and coach-less Houston Texans. Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson are the focal points of this offense, as both of them combine for 40 percent of Kirk Cousins pass attempts and average a combined 13 targets per game. Adam Thielen still looks to be the WR1 in Minnesota, but rookie Justin Jefferson is certainly making his case for the top spot after back-to-back 100-yard receiving games. Still, Thielen out-targeted and outgained Jefferson in this contest.

Thielen has certainly given me enough confidence to put him back in my lineup for the foreseeable future. The Vikings won’t always have the opportunity to take advantage of poor defenses like they did against Houston, but they’ll get a similar cakewalk next week as they play the Seattle secondary that can’t seem to stop anyone. Thielen and Jefferson are both start-worthy in their Sunday night tilt versus the Seahawks, as this game has the makings of a good ole’ fashion shootout.

New England Patriots

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Damiere Byrd 10 22 7.33 22 5.50 ⬆️
James White 8 8 2.67 11 5.50 ⬆️
Julian Edelman 6 23 7.67 30 7.50
N’Keal Harry 6 22 7.33 28 7.00 ⬆️
Ryan Izzo 3 6 2.00 8 2.00 ⬆️
Rex Burkhead 1 17 5.67 17 4.25 ⬇️


This data is virtually unusable, as the tendencies of Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham vary drastically from those of Cam Newton. When watching this game, you could tell the offense was entirely different and focused much more on short-yardage throws from the quarterbacks while bleeding the clock with the running backs. When Newton is in the lineup, New England can afford to be much more aggressive and actually afford to throw more often.

Since we are unclear on Newton’s status for next Sunday, I would suggest benching all of your Patriot players until we hear otherwise. Sure, James White or Damiere Byrd may give you a solid baseline of points. But you can’t really trust which Patriots player will be heavily involved in the game plan with Hoyer/Stidham under center. Many thought that Julian Edelman would have been the most targeted player in the game, but he put up an abysmal three catches for 35 yards on six targets. Save yourself the aggravation of starting a Patriots player until we are certain Cam Newton is back in the lineup.

New Orleans Saints

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Emmanuel Sanders 9 17 5.67 22 5.50 ⬆️
Alvin Kamara 4 27 9.00 35 8.75 ⬇️
Tre’Quan Smith 4 17 5.67 18 4.50 ⬇️
Deonte Harris 2 10 3.33 11 2.75 ⬇️
Latavius Murray 2 5 1.67 6 1.50 ⬆️
Taysom Hill 1 2 0.67 3 0.75


For the first time this year, Alvin Kamara did not lead the Saints in targets. Kamara only saw four targets in his matchup against the Lions, catching three passes for 36 yards. The game script and matchup called for the star running back to be used mostly as a rushing threat more than anything else. Kamara was on a historic pace for targets, so don’t overreact to an average game. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders finally reaped the benefits from Michael Thomas’ absence, as he caught six of his nine targets for 93 yards. He wasn’t great, but it’s encouraging to see he can become a focal point of the offense; unfortunately, his usage may be short-lived as Michael Thomas inches closer to a return.

Despite Sanders’ decent output in Week 4, I still would not feel comfortable starting him. With both Michael Thomas and Jared Cook out, Sanders should’ve at least surpassed 20 PPR points. His upside is extremely low as Brees’ decline in arm strength dictates a focus on the rushing attack and check-downs over the middle of the field. Tre’Quan Smith and Deonte Harris were equally disappointing given their increased opportunity. Until Thomas or Cook return, every Saint skill position player outside of Kamara should be off of your roster. 

New York Giants

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Evan Engram 10 23 7.67 30 7.50 ⬆️
Darius Slayton 7 20 6.67 29 7.25
Golden Tate 6 18 6.00 18 6.00 ⬇️
Damien Ratley 4 8 2.67 9 2.25 ⬆️
Devonta Freeman 4 4 1.33 4 2.00 ⬆️
Dion Lewis 3 11 3.67 12 3.00


No pass-catcher for this New York Giants squad hit double-digit PPR points on Sunday. Let that sink in. Despite 36 pass attempts from Daniel Jones, no receiver eclipsed 50 yards receiving or was useful in any way, shape, or form for fantasy. Engram led the team in targets and receptions, but his six catches for 35 yards were disappointing, to say the least. Still, that allowed him to finish as the TE11 on the week (more of a testament to the desolate tight end landscape in fantasy football than anything else). Darius Slayton led the Giants in receiving yards, catching three balls for 48 yards, but 33 of those yards came on a broken play with two minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Rams have a good defense, but this offense performance from New York was inexcusable.

You need a lot of moxie and desperation to risk putting a Giant in your lineup going forward. Even in a solid Week 5 matchup against the nonexistent Cowboys defense, I would struggle to suggest which player to start. Will Engram manage decent yards per catch? Will Slayton get loose for a deep ball and put together a great fantasy day? Will Golden Tate be a reception hog in the slot? If I had to pick, Slayton is my best bet to put up a fantasy viable performance in Week 5. Still, I would be watching the game with fear and anticipation as Jones is experiencing a major sophomore slump.

New York Jets

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Jamison Crowder 10 10 3.33 23 11.50 ⬆️
Jeff Smith 9 9 3.00 9 9.00 ⬆️
Chris Hogan 8 19 6.33 23 5.75 ⬆️
Chris Herndon 3 12 4.00 19 4.75 ⬇️
Kalen Ballage 3 10 3.33 10 3.33 ⬇️
Braxton Berrios 3 15 5.00 15 3.75 ⬇️

Hey, I can finally talk about the Jets without being sarcastic! Well, without being overtly sarcastic anyways. Sam Darnold did his best to play through an AC joint sprain to bring this offense back from the dead. Jamison Crowder did most of the heavy lifting for New York, converting his ten targets into seven catches for 104 yards. In his two games played, Crowder has averaged 11.5 targets per game, seven receptions per game, and 109.5 yards per game. Meanwhile, Jeff Smith and Chris Hogan saw nine and eight targets respectively, with the former putting up a decent seven catches for 81 yards. Chris Herndon disappointed for the fourth straight week, only managing one catch on three targets and being related to blocking duties for most of the game.

Crowder is the only viable fantasy asset on the New York Jets, and he is a darn good one. His incredibly high PPR floor and the utter lack of weapons around him will allow him to have these incredible 17-point games.  He has accounted for more than 50 percent of Sam Darnold’s passing yardage in each of his games played and is the clear first read for his struggling quarterback. The severity of Darnold’s injury will call into question how productive Crowder can remain, especially if Joe Flacco is forced into the lineup; nonetheless, Crowder’s floor makes him a great fantasy asset to have on your team.

Philadelphia Eagles

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Greg Ward 7 19 6.33 26 6.50 ⬇️
Zach Ertz 5 22 7.33 29 7.25 ⬇️
Miles Sanders 4 19 6.33 19 6.33 ⬇️
Richard Rodgers 4 6 2.00 6 1.50 ⬆️
Travis Fulgham 3 3 1.00 3 0.75 ⬆️
John Hightower 2 5 1.67 9 2.25 ⬇️


This Eagles offense looks more like something you would see in the fourth quarter of a preseason game than in a prime-time matchup. With Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor, and Dallas Goedert all missing, the Eagles were forced to field a wide receiver corps consisting of mainly late-round picks and undrafted free agents. Greg Ward led Philadelphia in targets and receptions, catching three of his four targets for 38 yards. Zach Ertz also caught four passes, but he managed a measly nine yards. The most productive receiver on the day was Travis Fulgham, someone only devout Eagles fans would’ve heard of. He caught a 42-yard touchdown pass that made him the most productive Eagles’ pass-catcher on the night.

Zach Ertz should’ve easily had his best fantasy game of the season in this matchup versus an injured 49ers defense. He was supposed to be the only reliable target in this offense and thrive without Goedert in the lineup to steal his red-zone work. Unfortunately, he was a major disappointment and finished as the PPR TE25 on the week. Unless you were able to pick-up Dalton Schultz or Robert Tonyan off of the waiver wire before the blow-up games, you’ll be forced to start Ertz in your TE spot for the foreseeable future. Aside from Ertz, only Greg Ward remains a consideration for a FLEX play if you are desperate. Otherwise, you are hoping the rest of the Philly pass-catchers recover from their injuries soon.

San Francisco 49ers

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
George Kittle 15 15 5.00 20 10.00 ⬆️
Jerick McKinnon 8 13 4.33 18 4.50 ⬆️
Kendrick Bourne 6 17 5.67 22 5.50
Brandon Aiyuk 5 16 5.33 16 5.33 ⬇️
Deebo Samuel 3 3 1.00 3 3.00 ⬆️
Kyle Juszcyk 2 5 1.67 8 2.00 ⬆️


George Kittle made his return to action in stunning fashion. The extraordinary tight end caught all fifteen of his targets for 183 yards and a touchdown, finishing as the second-highest fantasy scorer on the week. When Kittle is fully healthy, he’s a complete mismatch and has the capability of finishing as a top-12 positional player each week. Meanwhile, Jerick McKinnon received RB1 treatment from coach Kyle Shanahan, as he got 70% of the carries in addition to eight targets. Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel both flashed incredible play-making ability, but they were afterthoughts for much of the game given the struggles San Francisco had under center.

George Kittle is without question an auto-start for the rest of the season. No matter the matchup or quarterback lining up under center, he’s a monster who can single-handedly win you your week. While Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman remain sidelined, McKinnon is a great FLEX play and has a safe floor. Auyik and Samuel are definite holds, but it remains to be seen how well they operate when both are playing together at full strength. I would give it one more week to play either of them just so you can see how they function together.

Seattle Seahawks

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Greg Olsen 7 14 4.67 18 4.50 ⬆️
D.K. Metcalf 6 20 6.67 28 7.00 ⬇️
Tyler Lockett 4 25 8.33 33 8.25 ⬇️
Chris Carson 4 10 3.33 16 4.00 ⬆️
David Moore 4 8 2.67 11 2.75 ⬆️
Freddie Swain 3 4 1.33 5 1.25 ⬆️


What happened to Tyler Lockett? After finishing as the WR1 last week with a three-touchdown performance, he essentially disappeared down in Florida. Lockett only saw four targets, which he converted into two catches for 39 yards. Meanwhile, his sophomore running mate D.K. Metcalf once again went over 100 receiving yards on his four catches. Surprisingly, neither Metcalf nor Lockett led the Seahawks in targets in Week 4; old man Greg Olsen saw a season-high seven looks in this contest, but only managed a pedestrian five catches for 35 yards.

Don’t be discouraged by the poor output. Tyler Lockett, along with D.K. Metcalf, are must-starts each and every week. Russell Wilson is on a historic pace and is the frontrunner for the MVP race. The Seattle coaching staff is allowing Wilson to cook and he’ll keep firing deep targets towards his dynamic pass-catchers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Ronald Jones 9 15 5.00 18 4.50 ⬆️
Mike Evans 8 22 7.33 26 6.50 ⬆️
Scotty Miller 7 15 5.00 21 5.25 ⬆️
O.J. Howard 6 13 4.33 19 4.75 ⬆️
Justin Watson 6 9 3.00 11 2.75 ⬆️
Rob Gronkowski 3 11 3.67 14 3.50 ⬇️


With Chris Godwin and Leonard Fournette sidelined, Mike Evans did most of the damage for the Buccaneers pass-catchers. Despite missing some during the match with an injury, Evans converted his eight targets into seven catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. Evans finished as the WR5 on the week despite not receiving the most targets among his teammates. Ronald Jones flourished with Fournette beside him, seeing nine targets and rushing for over 100 yards. Still, it was his rookie running mate Ke’Shawn Vaughn that scored on an eight-yard reception. Scotty Miller also had a solid day, catching five balls for 83 yards and a touchdown, while O.J. Howard suffered a season-ending injury.

Evans is an auto-start whether or not Godwin plays, but his reliability is suspect week to week. In half of Evans’ games this year, he propelled his fantasy stat-line by making his lone grabs in the end zone. He has the upside to be a WR1 every week, but his incredible highs come with the risk of him putting up a goose-egg. If Godwin misses Thursday night’s game against Chicago, Miller is a viable FLEX option, as he’s put up a decent PPR floor in a majority of his games this season. While the Bears are a tough matchup for opposing wideouts, Miller may see enough volume to overcome the fierce Bears secondary. Also, for those thinking Howard’s injury puts Rob Gronkowski back in the tight end streaming tier, I wish you the best of luck, as I am not going near him in any leagues

Washington Football Team

PLAYER WEEK 4 LAST 3 AVG SEASON AVG TREND
Terry McLaurin 14 32 10.67 39 9.75 ⬆️
J.D. McKissic 8 12 4.00 17 4.25 ⬆️
Dontrelle Inman 5 16 5.33 21 5.25 ⬇️
Isaiah Wright 5 11 3.67 11 2.75 ⬇️
Antonio Gibson 5 10 3.33 12 3.00 ⬆️
Logan Thomas 4 20 6.67 28 7.00 ⬇️


Finally, a quarterback change in Washington! Despite completing over 70% of his passes and throwing for over 300 yards, the Washington staff has expressed immense frustration with Dwayne Haskins’ decision making and overall performance. Against a stout Ravens secondary, he found the most success targeting his stud sophomore wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who posted ten catches for 118 yards on 14 targets. Aside from targeting McLaurin, Haskins checked down the ball for most of the game, as Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic combined for 13 targets, 11 receptions, and 102 receiving yards.

Terry McLaurin continues to be impressive despite having one of the worst quarterbacks of any of his 2019 draft classmates. McLaurin is the focal point of this offense and is a must-start each week; despite his upcoming matchup against Jalen Ramsey, I expect McLaurin to put up a decent floor next Sunday. Gibson’s involvement in the passing game is a great sight to see, but it is still worrisome that he’s being out-touched by J.D. McKissic in the receiving game. If Gibson can take more of a stranglehold on pass-catching work, he could finish as an RB2 this season.

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Dan Ambrosino is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive and follow him @AmbrosinoNFL.

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